The world of sport is funny, so much is made of nuanced stats and metrics. Graphs and formulas for how you can win populate blogs and websites. “Experts” blab on and on about how analytics has changed sports forever. I don’t buy it. Why? Because when you look at who won and how it usually comes down to something basic that didn’t get done. A foundational aspect of winning that came up short. In the case of the lakers last night it was 2 things: rebounds (or lack of them) and missing free throws in the clutch. Simple.

1. Give credit where credit is due. The physicality and tenacity the Orlando Magic play at gave the Lakers fits all night long. Much whiny and moaning to the refs who let a rough, and consistent, game play out over the course of the evening. The Magic get up into you. They drape, they get handsy and we never adjusted or played up to it. Look no further than the rebound category to see where the threads of the win began to unravel. The Magic pulled down 12 more boards than we did (48-36) and grabbed 6 more offensive rebounds (15). While that led to only 15 second chance points it helped stymie or fastbreak and allowed Orlando to win the possession battle on the road.
2. Off game for the offense. The ball movement and flow last night was decidedly lacking. We average nearly 27 assists/game and last night, even though we got 21 dimes, the normal flow we’ve become accustomed to was AWOL. A lot of this was due to the physical pressure applied by Orlando. But it also had to do with guys like DLO passing up open shots in favor of relocating and then forcing up a bad shot, instead. The Lakers offense is predicated on player movement and when it’s flowing it works great. Too much standing around last night led to a stagnant flow and helped contribute to the loss.
3. Missing free throws. Look…it’s gonna happen and it happens to every team. There will always be a handful of games you look back on every season and say “should, woulda, coulda”. This and the Phoenix game top my list currently. Both were games where we had cont5rol and simply let it slip through our fingers. Missing 4 out of 6 free throws down the stretch, along with not forcing Wagner off the three point line, are the main culprits in this one. Wipe slate, move on.
4. Should have gone with Cam over DLO down the stretch. Called a big game for Russell last night…that is still MIA. Dude hasn’t scored 20 points in a game this season. I know he’s distributing the ball OK, had 6 dimes last night, but he’s a net negative defender and that’s not going to change. When he passes up open threes, like he did last night, it makes him playing really hard to justify. Cam was doing a better job than Reaves who inexplicably seemed to get matched up on Wagner a lot in the second half. When Wagner got hot and we finally went back to Reddish in the waning minutes it was too little too late. Bad decision by JJ on this one, I understand the desire to see DLO get on track but the west is to tight to let one guy beat us. Not sure why we didn’t put AD on him, either. Curious choices and some of that has to do with the switching scheme which my personal jury is still out on. It works when we’re physical like the Magic were but when you play willowy it opens up wide open threes and driving lanes.
5. Offense is not the problem. In a game where, even without good ball movement, you shoot 50.6% from the field and 41.9% from three while keeping the turnovers reasonable you ought to win. The free throws (65.4%) were a big part but the defense just isn’t rising to the occasion. We play good D in bursts but it doesn’t seem to be as much of a focus as it will eventually need to be. Our physicality comes and goes, we don’t rebound well, and our transition D continues to be a major weakness. If this doesn’t get addressed soon it will only become a larger issue.

While we’re still in the “too early to form a concrete opinion” stage of the season, there are some trends in the Lakers play we can identify and analyze. Ball movement, offensive flow: good. Defensive intensity and rebounding: mediocre, especially on the break where it gets downright bad. Let’s take a look at some of the ways the Lakers could maybe start to improve on the solid early-season foundation they’ve put down.

1. Getting buckets. As of this post the Lakers are the #4 ranked offense based on overall offensive rating. In the NBA, “offensive rating” refers to a statistic that measures how many points a team scores per 100 possessions, essentially representing their offensive efficiency over the course of a game; a higher offensive rating indicates a more potent offense. The shot profile is balanced, we’re #11 in Assist % (which is pretty solid considering we have 2 elite iso players in AD and LeBron), and we’re improving our assist to turnover ratio by the game (we currently sit at #5) which means we’re maximizing our possessions by not coughing it up but still using the pass effectively, and we’re not addicted to three point shooting nor are we treating it like a toxic asset. We’re #8 in points in the paint which we should be considering that our 2 best players rely on paint points. We’re #9 in scoring in transition. We’re right in my personal sweet spot for three point FGAs at 33.6 and improving on our accuracy from the beginning of the season at 37.4% (making 12.6). In short, when we lose, offense isn’t the problem.
2. Getting stops. This isn’t quite as rosy of a picture but the good thing is some of this is very fixable. Our net defensive rating (how many points we give up/100 possessions) is bad, we’re 25th in the league and that’s with AD playing at a high level. Most of that stat was based on the first iteration of the starting five which included D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves in the back court. I’d be curious to see what that number looks like with another 5-10 games of Cam Reddish starting in DLO’s place. Swapping Cam for DLO in the starting five has brought balance to both the bench and starting units, balance we sorely need if we want to get to at least middle of the pack defensively. Cam has been ultra solid on D and taken the open shots that come his way on offense without pressing. Early on, when we were a top 5 or so turnover team, we were giving up a lot more fastbreak points and points off of turnovers. We’ve cleaned up the points of TO’s…but we’re second to last in giving up points on the break. In some ways that’s a little more worrisome as it means teams are just running at us and we’re not adjusting very well off of makes or misses. The good thing is we can work on that as a team and get better on getting back. LeBron will not be a part of that effort and, based on his age and usage, this may be the biggest concern for the regular season. Come playoff time, when the game slows down, I expect this to matter a little less. Depending on matchups.
3. The Knecht Effect. After starting the first 8 or 9 games slowly DK4 has come on like gangbusters and is shooting lights out (last night was awesome against the Jazz). Inserting him into the starting 5 along with Cam has led to some of our best basketball and really opens up the door to a debate about if Rui should go back to starting once he’s available. I think the sample size is too small, it’s early in the season and DK hasn’t really been scouted, yet, so there’s still a lot of unknown factors but it’s certainly a conversation worth having. Starting DK (a rookie) would normally come with some defensive ability questions but, while he won’t be in any kind of NBA All Defense convos he can hold his own because he moves his feet rather than reaches. That in and of itself is huge. Add that a willingness to crash the glass at least as much as Rui does and you have a pretty nice problem for the coaches to unravel. I think that DK is probably the better shooter in that his release is quicker and he’s not shy about putting it up but both are efficient and you get a better iso/post player in Hachimura. Ideally a 2nd unit of Hachimura and DLO would be the way to go as that opens up a lot of options to run through both those guys whose overall skill sets are wasted a little bit as starters with our current roster composition. Both DLO and Rui can get their own shots in a variety of ways, strengths that augment the team more if Cam (or possibly Vando when he’s ready) and DK4 can serve as role-players in the starting five. The fact that Dalton has made this into a conversation is awesome.
4. The factor that affects everything and every team: injuries. With Wood, Hayes, Rui and Vando out one would expect the lakers to be at a disadvantage. Instead we’ve gone on a 6 game winning streak since our disastrous road trip. Getting those guys back is important and will ultimately make the Lakers better. Since they’re out it’s opened the door for more playing time and a starting spot for Cam and DK4 which has been a revelation on both ends of the court for the reasons above and also opened up some PT for Koloko. I like his energy and he competes well but there’s no denying this guy is both raw and rusty. I don’t need him to shoot threes, either, get good at the three things you need to be good at: rim protection, rebounding and screening. Do those well and you open a lot of doors for the team and us to feel more confident about potentially trading Hayes at some point. Other than that it’s been nice to see LBJ playing in every game so far and to see AD managing his five falls/game and eye injury well.
5. Wish the Emirates Cup was a little later in the season. We’re undefeated in Cup games dating back to it’s inception. Need more of ’em lol.

The Lakers are a team forever on, at a minimum, low heat. Even the dudes who wipe the sweat off the court are under a microscope when you’re a part of the Lakers organization. So the heat will only get hotter for this team as they come home after a fairly disastrous road trip. All but gone are the good vibes from the 3-0 start and replacing them are injury concerns and mediocre effort from guys we expect more out of. The Lakers trudge home 4-4, 10th in the west, and with a lot more questions than answers.

1. Laker defense blows. At 28th in the NBA with a 118.8 defensive rating the only way to describe the Lakers defense is dreadful. That’s a whole 4 points worse than we finished last season under Coach Ham. With the same team one would expect at least some form of continuity on that end but that doesn’t seem to be the case. We’re not getting back, we played physically for all of 3 games, and then just started letting the other team get into the paint and bully us on the glass. Our defensive rebounding has taken a 3.7% step back, as well. Whatever the coaches are trying to do isn’t working and I don’t think a trade or Vando coming back is enough. The team needs to either fix the physicality issue or change it’s coverage schemes because the blueprint to beat us is pretty simple: play fast. We’re in the bottom five for most measurable defensive metrics. That’s just not anywhere near good enough.
2. The offense looks solid through 8 games and I expect it to improve slightly in efficiency. This isn’t the area where the lakers are struggling. Our offense is currently the 8th best. Continuity on this end hasn’t been a huge problem, we’re scoring smart and we’re scoring well. We just can’t get a stop anymore. The only area that could stand to get cleaned up a little are the turnovers where we’re probably trying to force things too much or short cut the play in favor of a riskier cross court pass.
3. Leave Knecht on the bench. I knew as soon as I saw Rui out this would pave the way for a poor decision: starting Dalton Knecht. The dude is playing pretty well off the bench and has a nice role he’s already carved out. Give him the time to get better at that and start a guy like Cam to infuse the starting lineup with the correct kind of juice. Cam played really well in his minutes and happens to be playing for his NBA life. He was a spark plug for us last season and Coach Reddick has been pining for one of those energy guys while simultaneously ignoring the one he has that’s healthy and ready to play.
4. Enough with this 9 man rotation. Both the coaches and the players need more time. You’re not doing yourself a single favor by essentially benching 1/5th of your roster so you can play who you think are the 9 best. You’re 4-4 with no clear path back to consistently winning, the first month of the regular season is glorified training camp where the games matter, this is still an apropos time to be discovering combinations that work and a rotation doesn’t have to be set in November. It needs to have an idea of what it is by 2025, it needs to be comfortable with one another by January and if it’s not working it needs to be changed as best it can via trade in February. Lastly, there are 4…maybe 5…total players who deserve to be in a 9 man rotation. The rest are role players so use this time now to figure out which ones augment those intelligent 2 man pairings based off LeBron/Reaves and AD/DLO.
5. Letting the wrong players leave. Under Rob Pelinka, and numerous coaches, we’ve let the wrong players leave the organization far too often. I’m not talking about how we draft, although prior to Knecht that, too, left a lot to be desired, but rather what we do with the players we actually have and why we choose to let some of them walk for no reason. Alex Caruso left so we could keep THT who has almost bottomed out of the league while Caruso plays a meaningful role in OKC. Instead of Scottie Pippen Jr. we somehow still have Maxwell Lewis on the roster and after watching Scottie dissect us on defense it’s hard for me to understand why. The kid just plays hard and plays right. What does Lewis even do well in the G League? This disturbing trend has resulted in a severe talent drain of affordable players that a team like the Lakers can’t afford to keep getting wrong.

Got another one tomorrow on my birthday. Which seems to always get ruined by an election or a bad Lakers game. The shitty election already happened so here’s hoping at least the Lakers win against the injury ravaged 76ers… Yay 50.

Nothing to learn from this other than how to move on from a bad loss. The Phoenix game, even though we coughed up a late lead, felt competitive. This game never did as the Cavs got what they wanted, when they wanted, and how they wanted it. There was not much resistance offered from the Lakers even though we got down big early, again, and had shown that steady approach to coming back works. Whether it’s some guys still finding their legs, the early and lengthy road trip or just that the Cavs are that much better we never really were in this game after the first few minutes.

1. The Lakers defense ain’t great. We’re giving up 50.8 points in the paint per game so far. That’s, in part, being fueled by our league worst transition defense which gives up 21.2 ppg (the only team in the Association to give up more than 20). Our transition defense is non-existent. In specific, switching everything (or 1-4 when AD’s man happens to be in the paint) every time is both predictable and easily exploitable, as we’ve now seen with our own eyes against quality opponents. The seams it creates are letting guys get to the rim and score. That leads to softer switches that offer more room and then guys shoot the three over us. The physicality we saw in the first 3 games didn’t make the road trip, as can be seen by the vast free throw disparity last night in which Cleveland shot well from everywhere (57.7% overall, 41.5% from three) while only getting to the line 8 times compared to our 33. When you win the free throw battle by that much, one generally expects a W. If we stick with switching 1-4 we need to stay attached better to both players (screener and ball handler) and I’ll take an uptick in fouls called if that’s what it takes. Laying back off the screens like a bunch of softies is just creating quality shots for the other team and isn’t working at all. This was, and remains, my biggest concern with Reddick as a head coach, and so I’m curious to see what changes. If anything does.
2. Lakers back court needs to be better. Mainly DLo but Reaves needs to be in attack mode at all times, too. Reaves should be in the conversation of “whose team” this is almost as much as AD because he’s more of an initiator of the offense. Shooting the ball a measly 6 (Reaves) and 7 (Russell) times, respectively, means there isn’t enough pressure being applied; although in D’Angelo’s case he did get to the line 7 times when his 3 ball wasn’t (still) falling. There’s not a great option to turn to after those 2 guys so they need to get it done night in and night out a lot better and consistently than they’ve done so far. They look good in wins, bad in losses and as they go so, too, does the Lakers fortunes.
3. Bronny got his first NBA hoop. Yay.
4. The Lakers bench needs to do more. Like…a lot more. The Net Rating for the Lakers bench is -4.7 and would be a lot worse without Dalton Knecht. This difference isn’t because they’re letting the other team score at will, the Lakers bench has the 6th best defensive rating in the league. We’re middle of the pack in scoring the rock but lead the league in pace (the bench, not the team overall). It may be worth exploring the idea of slowing it down a bit since we’re killing it in transition, anyhow. At any rate our myopic scoring output is a huge issue as we move further into the season. I expect Knecht to hit the rookie wall at some point (they all do) and other than him nobody is scoring effectively yet. Vando getting minutes over Christie and Hayes could help alleviate that but that isn’t the current reality. Somebody besides Knecht needs to contribute and if you move him to the starting 5 I worry the bench will fall utterly off a cliff.
5. Good news! It’s still early and the road trip is still salvageable. Win in Toronto. That needs to be the focus. Don’t worry about anything else but executing and getting the W in Canada and then focus on Detroit followed by voting (VOTE!) and then Memphis. Just focus on taking care of the business in front of you. All the history is out of the way now, the team has shown it’s good enough to compete at a high level when fully engaged on a physical level, so make that the priority. If you’re competing at a high level, playing as hard and focused as you can, then good things usually generate themselves. Don’t let the losing define the road trip or when you come back it’ll be harder to find that home mojo, again, and no team worth it’s salt is only good at home. Need to be able to win on the road and win consistently. You also don’t want to tumble down the standings early, we’ve all seen how that affects the late season race to getting favorable playoff placement and it’s not fun. We’re still a top 6 team, just need to go out and play lie one, again.

It can be easy to look too far ahead in life. To project into the future may may or may not occur. In the case of being a fan of the Lakers it’s almost easier to look back and see all that could have gone better, or in some cases, worse. When it comes to the start of the 2024-25 season I have, thus far, resisted the urge to define what this Lakers team will look like and prioritize. Too many variables left unaccounted for over the summer. Sure, we brought back the same roster, but folks tend to forget that Vincent and Vando barely played, Rui wasn’t available for the first month or so with a calf strain and then again for a couple weeks when he had the nasal fracture. The piling on Darvin Ham started early and didn’t really let up due both to his roster indecisiveness and some curios in-game choices that led to losses. New coaching blood was brought in, along with a couple rookies, and so everyone seemed to expect a sort of repeat from last season. That narrative ignores a lot of facts and when those are taken into account it’s not as surprising we’re not having de ja vu this season but getting a fresher, more exciting outcome.

1. The emergence of Anthony Davis. It’s not often you see a player take a step forward this late in their career. I can honestly say I have never seen AD this dominant, confident and forceful in his play. Nothing tangible has changed much; looking at his shot chart it’s the same batch of AD type shots he’s always taken. What’s changed is both his demeanor (pissed off and hungry for respect he feels is lacking) and the team’s focus on getting him the ball early and not just on post ups. If you watch the best all around centers (Jokic and Sabonis) they get the ball above the free throw line out to the three point line and make reads off of that. They function in spots Kobe used to operate from and then, when he had the perfect Robin to his Bat Man in Pau Gasol, he ceded those spots to the Big Spaniard in favor of letting him generate easy offense in the half court. That never meant the iso game went away, it was simply relied upon a lot less and the team benefitted from it instantly. So, too, has this change elevated the laker offense as a whole. Gone are the muddy possessions where two or three players are operating out of the elbows, the corner and the arc three point line. That allowed the defense to load up on AD more and cut off driving lanes. These sets, to me, look vaguely like old triangle sets. AD at the elbow up to the three point line, a single shooter stationed down in the corner and another player moving through space creating the angled set of the same name: a triangle. I’ll get more into this idea down yonder but this kind of action has allowed AD to score, make a play for others and elevate the entire team in the doing.
2. LeBron still LeBron. I kinda started to wonder…was this what he was going to look like all season? Under 20 ppg, decent impact, solid all around play, but markedly less impact than hoped for but we were winning so who cares? Cue Saturday night and a dominant 4th quarter run that put the Lakers firmly in the driver’s seat to close out the win. It’s good to know that the ultimate safety valve can still dial it up when needed. I also liked his post game comments about not needing to do that all game because we’re a team. It’s that camaraderie that we’ll need more of when the games get harder, possibly as soon as tonight on the road, to help weather storms and bumpy patches.
3. Using the rookie right. Dalton Knecht is being used in the exact right way. He’s playing about 7-8 minutes/half and not generally in crunch time moments allowing him to both build up stamina (and hopefully avoid a rookie wall later in the season) and build up his confidence at the same time, although watching him play makes me think he doesn’t really lack for confidence. Still I’d rather see him continue in this way with a really specific role for the young man and let him grow into his talent rather than trying to rush things along because he’s had a nice stretch of play. Being the microwave scorer off the bench while playing a steady game in this role is the perfect way to incubate a rookie who you don’t necessarily need to rely on consistently just yet.
4. The struggles of Max Christie. It’s not that he’s playing poorly, he’s making the right play in front of him, for the most part, and not forcing anything. It’s just that he won’t have a role when Vando comes back which will hopefully be before Thanksgiving. Max is too light to guard the bigger NBA players he often gets switched onto in our defensive schemes, isn’t aggressive enough (or frankly good enough) to be a microwave scorer, and generally looks like he’s topped out his skill set and talent at this point out there. Yes, I know we gave him a big deal early in free agency (and have often wondered why) but when Jarred returns there won’t be a role for him and even Hayes’ minutes could suffer a bit based on matchups. On the upcoming road trip I see two games where Max’s minutes will probably go to Bronny: in Cleveland for a Father/Son homecoming of sorts and maybe in Detroit if Max continues to have a willowy impact. Bronny could also see some action on the back-to-back in Toronto and let Vincent rest a game on the bench. Back to Max, he needs to find a higher level of aggression. I don’t need him to be the next Lou Williams but his presence needs to be felt and too often it simply is not.
5. Coach Reddick pushing the right buttons so far. The honeymoon continues and the wins keep coming so what’s not to like? The rotations, mainly due to good health this season so far, have looked better. The biggest add has been off ball activity from our guards and wings from the corner spots. The defense has showed us some different looks and it will be interesting to see what ole Vando has/gets when he comes back. But, for me, the overall movement on offense and quick decisions we’re seeing are what’s setting Coach Reddick apart from his predecessor. As illustrated above, we’re seeing some triangle 101 type action to create movement and flow. This opens up backdoor cuts, defensive indecision which allows for quick scores, and a general “share the wealth” vibe which behooves great basketball. A lot fewer iso sets is always welcome, in my opinion. Not forcing threes because it’s 2024 and there’s only one way that everyone thinks basketball need be played now is always welcome. Enabling guys like Reaves and AD to make plays for others so the burden shifts away from LeBron having to do everything or relying on DLo to go off. This style of hoops has opened up Rui and Reave’s games a lot and here’s hoping this is the new status quo.

Next up, a 5 game roadie starts tonight in Phoenix who likely would like to whup us pretty good. Great test of all the principles outlined above and here’s hoping we keep the good times rolling.

Lotta “First” boxes checked last night. Bronny James and his pop shared the floor to check his first game and the first time a father/son duo shared the floor together. Dalton Knecht netted his first bucket(s). Coach Reddick got his first win. The Lakers won their first game. Only first left un-checked was Bronny scoring his first bucket, as well. After all that hullaballoo it would have been easy to lose the game, like so many historic moment games have gone of late, but after going back to the tried and true formula for recent Laker wins we pulled out the W and started the season right.

1. No answer for AD. This must be the new way forward. There can’t be any disappearing acts this season if AD wants the respect that has recently proved elusive, and for the Lakers to reach their goals this is the way Anthony Davis needs to play night in and night out. 11-23 from the floor, (1-3 from three point land) to go with 16 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks and a steal. There are few defenders that can hang with Davis and when he asserts himself it’s an entirely different looking Lakers team. AD creates shots and space in a manner that goes against the modern NBA grain: from the inside out. By dominating inside Davis creates shots for his perimeter guys and cutters. If he can average 5+ assists per game along with everything else he will be in the MVP conversation and rightly so.
2. The Glue Man. If AD is a force of nature, Austin Reaves is the bond that makes everything look smooth. His all around effort and performance helped make this a rebounding neutral game (one where, for a time, we were dominant on the glass (until the effort of the T’Wolves up ticked after halftime). Like most of the team his three ball proved elusive but it didn’t deter him from being aggressive on the glass and in getting into the heart of the defense to make plays or shots. Nothing, except maybe the rebounds, jumps off the stat sheet but if you watched the games you saw a player applying pressure on the defense, contesting shots and aggressively hunting the rebound. That’s what we need out of Austin Reaves on the daily.
3. The Rui Hachimura Power Game. It feels like a cosmic event, only seen once every few weeks or even months. But so far during the NBA 2024-25 season the power game of Rui Hachimura has been used every single game. Last night it was on full display and here’s hoping it’s around to stay. Gone were the willowy step back fade aways. Instead we saw player seeking contact and going up through it using both speed and power to get closer to the basket. Even on his jump shots I thought he was better about going straight up and into the shot rather than drifting back or to one side or the other. This, like Reaves, is the version of the player we need to see the most consistently. If he plays like this and averages close to 20 ppg on decent efficiency he’ll be in line for a most improved player award.
4. The “new” Laker identity. Again, t’was but one single game. Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Lakers won this game the way they won so many games the last 2 seasons regardless of the coach: power over style or volume. The Lakers interior game was stellar leading to a +32 point discrepancy in points in the paint. The free throw line battle was also a place we won, albeit by a single point, but the aggressiveness and pressure we apply by playing with force and attacking the basket is an advantage this team has that few do in the modern game. When the three ball was obviously not falling did we refuse to adapt and just keep chucking up bad shots? No, we pressed further into the defense and found guys around the rim and dominated the paint. Like we need to. As I’ve said, there is no correct answer to thew question of how many ______’s should we shoot? The number of any kind of shot attempts taken is inconsequential if winning is the objective. The answer will be different every night. What was heartening to see, for me anyhow, was that we didn’t try to re-forge an identity in one game. That we shot 5-30 from distance shows me that some guys aren’t consistent enough to make the three pointer the uber weapon some insist we must embrace beyond reason. That we pivoted away and went inside also showed me that both coach and player are adaptable and will seek to find what works beyond the outer politics of the game. As it should be.
5. Rookie Watch 2025! They played. Knecht looked like he did in preseason: steady, albeit slow to react on defense. Bronny, too, in his whopping 3 minutes of game action in that he played hard if mostly ineffectually (nice offensive rebound though). Still, it was nice to get the side show over with and they can both move on to improving their games. In general I don’t see much of a role for Bronny that Reddish can’t do better and Knecht may ultimately lose minutes to Vando once he returns and if he can score ably enough. That’s OK, they’re both young and we can maybe slide Knecht into Max Christie’s minutes since he still looks a long way from ready for prime time. Either way, they’re both development projects, like Koloko will be should he ever get cleared, this season and my hope is they can slide into the roster slots and roles vacated next summer by Reddish and Wood. Knecht may prove to be further along than that but it’s early and he’s not going to get the minutes he can see down in the G League. A riddle for the staff to ponder, assuredly.

The Los Angeles Lakers 75th season begins on today, 10/22/2024. It’s Bronny James’ first season and Papa James’ 22nd. It’s Coach Reddick’s first year steering the team and he is the Lakers 29th head coach. I pick the Lakers to finish 7th in the Western Conference and 4th in the Pacific Division. I expect AD to win zero major awards despite his unique talents and skills. So it begins anew. A fresh, clean season!

1. Every new season in every sport is defined as much by optimism and hope as it is reality. For the Lakers hope comes in two forms: the health of their 2 superstars and the quick growth of Coach Reddick. Getting AD and LBJ through preseason healthy was, for me, a huge priority. Even with them playing in the vast majority of games last season we were only good for the Playin spots. So it stands to reason that, if they’re not available, we’re looking at a lottery placement. The integration and ascension of J.J. Redick as coach I expect to take more than just preseason. I’ve hard a lot of wonderful thoughts and ideas, read a lot of super interesting articles regarding those thoughts and ideas and it still leads me to a “now we’ll see” place. With a healthy AD and LeBron and some questionable health on down the line after them we were good enough to get to the 1st round of the playoffs under Darvin Ham who made a surprise run to the Western Conference Finals in his first season, a success that likely created an over-inflated opinion of what this roster is really capable of. After he was fired the Lakers went in a not-all-that unexpected direction by picking someone close to LeBron James…who had never coached anyone in his life other than 4th graders. Much has been made of his acumen as a player and a podcaster but, for my part, those are traits best suited for lead videographer on a staff, not the head coach. What I’ve seen on the floor has left a lot to be desired, so far. None of what’s happened really matters since A) He is the current coach, B) Our first option turned us down, C) The candidates after that were not guaranteed success stories in the making. Things working against JJ are the shorter preseason, the fact we had to travel to Milwaukee for one whole game, and that LeBron and AD both played significant roles in the Olympics. So I’m giving him the year to work this out better than I thought Coach Ham did. Here’s hoping.
2. Things I’m worried about. The defense and our rebounding. None of those have looked much better in preseason…but then again it’s preseason. Part of the problem is neither Reaves or DLo are organic glass crashers, they just don’t ball hunt off the shot very well. LeBron is old, doesn’t want to jump for a rebound and land on someone’s foot or worse. I get that. That basically leaves AD and Rui until Vando gets back or someone else off the bench distinguishes themselves as an active rebounder. On defense we have a similar issue in that Rui and DLo tend to lose focus on defense. Reaves competes but can be backed down with ease. LeBron is old and will put forth effort…when the moment demands it of him. That leaves AD until Vando gets back. Gabe has been OK, but I think he’s still under-sized and lacks the quickness he had as recently as his time in Miami. Not sure if it’s something he can get back with reps and playing more or if he’s aging out of the ball hawk role. Regardless, I haven’t loved our schemes, either. We’re awful in transition, we switch on screens too quickly rather than fighting which has a dual effect: we’re getting fewer fouls called on offensive players (which at a minimum helps et a tone and can help get key guys in foul trouble).
3. Things I’m not worried about. Scoring, in general. The shot profile in preseason can get tossed out the window because LeBron played zero 4th quarter minutes in preseason and AD played like 5 or so. LeBron also passed up a lot of shots he should take, which I expect he will once the games matter. Other than that everyone looked about the way they have for the last year and change. On the topic of three pointers DLo, Rui and Reaves are streaky, AD can take and make threes but we’re so much better off when he operates in and around the paint there’s no real need to stash him out there, and the guys off the bench are just plain inconsistent. There isn’t an number of threes I want to see us taking/game. They can be literally any number…as long as they are quality shot attempts. This is where the myth of the “green light” is easily exposed. I want all of our players to feel comfortable taking open (defender is more than 5 feet away from you) shots from everywhere. That is going to be a quality shot. Time winding down, 3 seconds or less on the clock, let it fly and so with confidence, there isn’t time for the play to evolve further. But if we just got the ball across the line and you call for a screen and jack it up because you’re feeling it or whatever, that my friends is a bad shot attempt. Even if it goes in, not what you want to see from pros. Work the ball into AD, let the defense collapse around him, move to your sweet zone and set you feet with hands in the ready position. You are now prepared to take a good shot. That’s what we need a lot more of. I still expect to see us dominate the paint, I’d like to see our shooters shoot smart threes, as many as can be generated, and if we accomplish that I don’t think we need to worry all that much about putting points on the board.
4. The rookies. Bronny and Dalton are the only two drafted but Quincy Olivari will find himself in the mix as quick as either of those two if he keeps bringing the hustle. All three have issues: Bronny can’t shoot, yet. Dalton has no lateral foot speed and gets blown by with ease. Quincy is raw but seems to be a blend of both Dalton and Bronny. I think Dalton can carve out a solid role for himself on this team, maybe even have some crunch time opportunities in actual games. But I’m not investing all that much in summer or preseason games. Some guys shine as brightly as the lights do, some guys wilt under that heat. All three will get tested this season and my hope is they can show the best versions of themselves when the moment comes. I am not expecting or hoping for much impact from any of them beyond that. Of the 3 Knecht likely has the most assured role off the bench, at this time.
5. Two Way Contracts 101. I keep seeing posts and articles that seem to insinuate that Koloko or Olivari can have a huge impact on the season. If they do, they’ll only have 50 games in the regular season to do so. Two Way players CANNOT play in the playoffs. In order for Koloko or Olivari to be playoff-eligible we’d have remove one of our standard contracts and not take a player back. For that reason along with the fact that we don’t have any non or partially guaranteed deals on the roster, I expect them to stay two-ways. Could something shake loose in a trade? I guess so but that would mean trading out more players than we bring back and even then we would also need to bring in a lot less money than we sent out in order to get them under the 2nd apron. All second apron penalties apply once you cross over, there is no grace period. Can they be feel good development stories? Absolutely. Will they transform our season and alter the trajectory of the franchise? In short, no.

Go Lakers.