Comparing Rui to Wiggins

There’s so much outside noise around Wiggins to the Lakers for 3 capable players (generally Rui, Gabe and Dalton) AND a 1st round pick that I felt it was time for a true comparison to the alleged primary pieces in the trade. Those players being Rui Hachimura and Andrew Wiggins. We’ll get into hard data and then get into more intangible aspects and expected roles.

Looking at the numbers:

Name	PPG	FG%	3 pt. FG%	Steals	Blocks	Assists	DefRtg	OffRtg	GP	MP
Rui	13.1	50.9	41.3	.6	.4	1.4	117	123	59	31.7
Wiggins	18	44.8	37.4	1	1	2.6	113	113	60	30.7

In all honesty both players bring a very similar level of impact. Wiggins, who generally has a larger role on his teams, produces more raw ppg, albeit less efficiently. Rui, who plays his specific role very well for us, is the better three point marksman albeit on fewer attempts (Wiggins attempted 9.5 making 3.8 to Rui’s 4.8 attempts and 2.0 makes). Wiggins defensive rating is better, Rui’s offense is better (significantly, I would say) and more efficient across the board. Where Wiggins is superior is in getting to the free throw line (6.8 FTA/game to Rui’s 2.2, both shoot about 77% with Rui having a slight advantage there by .4%). So if they were making the same amount of money you could argue that it would be a decent lateral move.

They’re not making the same amount of money, though. Not even close:
Rui Hachimura: $18, 259, 259 (expires in the summer)
Andrew Wiggins: $28, 223, 215 (player option for $30, 169, 644 for 2025-26 season)

So when you factor that in, along with having to add two players that were mainstays in the rotation last season in Vincent and Knecht AND a first round pick, it starts to get confusing as to why so many fans are really into this idea. If you add just Gabe Vincent’s impact to our roster this deal gets worse for LA:

PPG	FG%	3pt FG%	Steals	Blocks	Assists	DefRtg	OffRtg	GP	MP
6.4	40.0	35.3	.7	.2	1.4	118	108	72	21.2

I’m not saying Gabe tore it up, it was definitely a down year for him, especially in the playoffs. The same can be said for Wiggins, though, who dropped off a cliff as his first playoff series as a member of the Heat. But just combination of Rui and Vincent is more than what Wiggins would potentially bring to the table. With the addition of Smart, Vincent is also our 3rd guard on a team short on guards (Reaves, Smart, Vincent…that’s it). So including him in a potential deal makes it even more of a priority that Smart plays in 70-80% of the games. Not very realistic given his career and injury history. You can pencil Marcus in for roughly 55-60 games, I’d say, as a best case scenario. That, subsequently, puts a ton of pressure on Reaves. Which may or may not be a good thing given his own limitations.

Furthermore, with Luka and LeBron on the team, you need some guards to play defense on the perimeter. It’s unrealistic, especially in the regular season, to say you’re playing 2 guards all year long. Yes, I know we have Bronny…c’mon man. Dude isn’t ready for a significant NBA role. That’s where Gabe comes in. Again, are there better guards out there? Sure, but this is who we have now. Trading 3 players for 1 given the current roster construction, might not be the smartest move we could make.

The main sticking point, for me, is the first round pick. We have 1 we can trade this season and, if we exercise discipline, 3 on draft day next summer when we could be looking to replace LeBron and/or Reaves, potentially. Not having that pick next summer means we’ll be settling further and further down the talent ladder. 3 picks and matching contracts/cap relief gets you in the door for almost any player. 2 picks…notsomuch. Not when guys like Bridges and Gobert netted 4 FRPs (albeit with protections). Make them unprotected, add a swap and a 2nd rounder and that’s something that a Denver or a Milwaukee can theoretically live with if their superstar demands to be sent to play with Luka.

Lastly, you have to wonder how invested in basketball Wiggins is these days. Nobody should begrudge someone who grows apart or away from something. It happens all the time. I think it’s safe to say, however, that there’s no way in Hell Golden State would have traded him for Jimmy Buckets if they thought his head was 100% in the game. For the past two, two and a half season, it clearly was not and that is supported by drop offs across the board in both efficiency and raw numbers.

I’d feel a lot differently if the deal was for Kleber, Vincent, Knecht and a FRP or no pick and Rui…although that’s my least favorite version. I mainly think that, given what his role on our team would be, it’s an overpay because Rui and he are slightly different versions of the same player. When you don’t have a ton of assets you can’t afford to be cavalier. Otherwise you end up in a Russel Westbrook type situation. One ball, too many dudes that need it.

In conclusion, Miami has all but said Wiggins is off the market because they want to see how this all works. The sweetener we have is the sweetener we got: one first round pick we can trade in 2030. Oh and our 2nd round pick in 2025, I believe. Other than that the cupboard is bare, my friends. If you look at what the other teams in contention are doing they’re definitely not burning picks for duplicative players already on the roster. Lakers need to be smart, not foolhardy.