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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
I hope Rob is paying attention to the Sun/Nuggets series. The Suns 2nd unit scored 4 points. It is hard to win a ring if you are top heavy like the Suns. Oh and CP3 got hurt in 3rd. I have a feeling he is going to become one of those great players that never wins a ring.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
Tom posted an article about the Lakers not needing Kyrie and I completely agree. It got me thinking. If we denounced all of players not under full contracts we would only have around 30 mil. Not enough for Kyrie or building a better team. And the new CBA makes trading for a super star, super hard.
While one can argue that as constructed this roster isn’t championship level, with all the new restrictions, it’s probably the best we can do. Two things that will work in our favor is there is not a lot of money out there this year. Only rebuilding squads have a lot of cap space. The other is the cap will jump 10% the following year due to the new TV deal. Here is where we stand:
Under full contracts
LBJ
AD
Max
That is a combined salary of $95,688,850. See the problem? The projected cap for next year is 132 mil. The projected tax apron is $164 mil. But there is a new wrinkle if you go over the apron by $17.5 mil you lose your MLE. This makes it even harder to spend.Free agents with bird rights:
DLO
Austin
Rui
Gabriel (early bird rights)
I believe we will retain all 4. With so little cap space out there this is a bad year for DLO to become a free agent. He is too old for the rebuilders. I think 25 to 30 mil will probably get it done. Because of the Arinas rule no one can offer Austin more then 12 mil the first two years. He can be offered a big raise the last two. Austin is not going anywhere. Rui’s current market appears to be $15 to $18 mil. He will also be back. Gabriel won’t be offered a huge amount. He is the perfect energy bench guy for us.Players with Team options or non guaranteed deals.
Vando
Beasley
Bamba
Shaq HarrisonAt a little under 5 mil, Vando is a no brainer. I watched Harrison in the G league. He is a good defender and at a veteran min would be decent end of the bench guy. I have always like Beasley’s game but since coming here he hasn’t given us much. Some guys are just not cut out for the bright lights I guess. Bamba at 10 mil is over paid for what he brings. Both could be cut. They would have to be guaranteed before they can be traded. I’m sure Rob is testing the trade waters now. You can’t trade until your season is over but you can talk.
Guys with no bird right.
Dennis
Lonnie
TroyAll 3 out played their contract. We probably will lose them since we have to fit them into non existent cap space. We could perhaps use the MLE of 7 mil to keep Dennis. He is a very good back up PG and we probably could not do better. We would probably have to cut either Bamba or Beasley in order to have the MLE available.
We have the 17th pick and a mid 2nd round pick available. That’s about 4.5 mil in first year salaries.
There will be 3 two way contracts available this year. That’s great news for the Lakers considering our success at finding hidden gems. Pippin Jr was one of the best G league players last year. I would give him one of the slots, if not an end of the bench slot.
The core I’m sure will be back is
LeBron
AD
Austin
DLO
Rui
Vando
Max
GabrielThat is a good start but it will be a challenge building a quality 2nd unit. And with LeBron and AD’s injury history a solid bench is a must. We will need:
A quality back up PG( Dennis?)
A solid defensive center
At least one scoring wingCan we find them with trades? Can we draft a plug and play player at 17 in the draft. Is there a ring chasing vet with a little left in the tank? Can we rehabilitate a young player like we did with Troy and Lonnie?
These are the questions that will have to be answered. The good news is that we haven’t had a quality returning core for some time. Austin, Rui, Max , Vando and Gabriel will all improve. I finally have a good feeling about this team moving forward. It’s been a few years since that was the case.
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Almost no chance unless you want to cut just about everyone. Let me ask you this. Would we be better with LaVine. Or would we be better with DLO, Austin, Vando and Rui. That’s your choice. To get LaVine we need to sign and trade. That hard caps you so we would not be able to sign those other guys. Wood is so bad defensively that the Mav’s don’t want him back. He couldn’t even start for them. We already have the best center in the league, we don’t need Vuc. Another poor defender. Clarkson will opt out. We don’t have the cap space to sign him. So that would require a trade. We don’t have anyone making enough to trade. We can’t trade Beasley back to the Jazz for a year. And if we did a sign and trade, again that hard caps us and we lose other guys. Like I said in the post, we don’t have a lot of options other than keeping our own guys.
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Like the 4 amentioned, but we’ll see. Lakers Chip or bust. Kinda thinking if we don’t win it all, perhaps a shakeup. Trade the oft undependable AD to Chicago for TS Lavine and Vucevic? We’ll see what Kuz is worth or not $$ wise. Most of us were talking highly about Beaser, Brown-jr and Walker at one point.
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Great recap, Michael. Much will depend on how far we go this season, which will impact how much Jeanie will be willing to pay in luxury taxes. We get to a point where adding a $5M player is adding $20M so the system does work and the league doubled down on making it even more onerous to go way over.
I would hope the Lakers would be willing to go up to $85M in taxes which would enable us to do much of what you have outlined. We could get lucky in spend less but a lot will depend on making great picks to fill those holes. I would also prioritize Dennis with the MLE although there have been rumors the Lakers like Trey Lyles a lot and he’s a Klutch client.
There are some centers in the draft that could be perfect for us so I would keep the pick. If we need to trade the pick along with Mo and Malik for legit 3&D wing to start, I’d give up the 2029 pick. Makes sense right now for us to use that for a back up rim protector.
Bottom line, Rob should win EOY for the makeover he executed, what that means for the team going forward, and the flexibility we got to make additional moves this summer. One hell of a turn around. Better than even I expected on my most optimistic day.
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Great post Michael. The new CBA is actually favorable towards this current Lakers team being kept intact. Still got some playoffs ahead of us so things could change a little. Malik could go for 30 one game and swing a series all by himself, Bamba could shine on down the line (if the role is there, no guarantee) or someone could regress mightily. All in all, I don’t see anything drastic like that happening.
We live and die by AD and LeBron, the rest are helpful, to be sure, especially when faced with an ever-aging LeBron which won’t get any better next season. Honestly it won’t surprise me if AD or James requires a major surgery at some point next season given the nature of their respective injuries.
Kevin Love could be a vet minimum nab and fits into what we do well. Same goes for Schroeder (as you say i could see us using some/all of our MLE to retain his services). The main thing I like is the CBA all but nixed the “three superstars” dream for almost every team that doesn’t currently have 3 already. Even the Warriors will be hard-pressed to keep this all together.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
The Lakers have now exceeded my expectations for this year. When I saw the poorly constructed roster at the beginning of the year I thought that if we could stay healthy and the young guys ramped up their play then maybe we could sneak into the first round. Over all the young guys gave us some good moments but we got stung by the injury bug again. Then came the trades. You have to hand it to Rob. He didn’t panic and waited it out until the right trades materialized.
The adjustments that Coach Ham made are some of the best between game adjustments I’ve seen in a very long time. Of course it was all made possible by the best defensive center in the game. ( sorry triple J )
Only AD has the mobility to jump out and double the pick and roll and still get back to protect the rim. Shrinking the rotation to 8 also was huge. Bringing Gabriel in instead of Troy or Beasley was huge. It gave us 3 players with size to counter JJJ. Even though Gabriel only played 10 minutes it was impactful with a couple of baskets and blocks. I also thought putting Rui on Bane was genius. Rui had a tremendous defensive game. His size really bothered Bane and Rui demonstrated the quickness needed to stay with Bane.We will only go as far as our defense will take us, but we have the blue print now. Even LeBron, who I have been critical of for only defending in spurts was locked in defensively all night. I think a lot of that is made possible by having 2 playmakers in Austin and Dlo running the show. LeBron is no longer tasked with always having to be the playmaker. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Vando’s defense on Ja. What a luxury to have a long 6’ 9” player capable of hanging with one of the quickest guards in the NBA.
I believe we can match up defensively with any team moving forward. Our shooting comes and goes but with our transition game and paint points , our defense will keep us in most of the games moving forward. I can see us losing to any of the remaining teams, but for the first time I can see us beating any of them as well.
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Great post, Michael. Could not agree more with all of your points. While the year was certainly tumultuous, having the team peak and raise its ceiling every game is exciting and promising. We’re really a year early for this team and you have to give Darvin credit for it. He took on an unbelievable challenge and has come out standing tall. We have a shot at it this year and the core of a future dynasty built around Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Kind of like Reaves and Russell are to LeBron what Pau Gasol was to Kobe.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
Another Clippers season, another elimination. Injuries to Kawhi and PG did them in again. And it’s a good thing. If everyone was healthy the Clippers could have run the table. I’m watched the Suns game and I was very impressed by the Clippers role players. I wasn’t to impressed by the Suns. No depth. Spotty defense. I’m not sure they will beat the Nuggets.
1 Comment -
Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
That first quarter was something to behold. I can’t recall a playoff game where a team dominated like that. But given the choice of dominating the 1st quarter or the 4th I would take the 4th every time. Because there are no safe early leads in the NBA.
Now the Griz are very good team and I knew that they would make some runs. While I never felt like the game was in danger, I felt we blew an opportunity to really cast some doubt in them. Instead they got close enough by the end to write the game off as just a bad first quarter.
For me the biggest problem was that 4th quarter. We went into the basketball equivalent of football’s prevent defense, way too soon. The Lakers abandoned what got them the big lead before the 4th quarter was even half way played. And Ja was able to make it uncomfortable. Hopefully we don’t do that again.
AD dominated like everyone wanted him too. While his defense has been stellar throughout, it’s his offense that has been choppy. What changed? Well he became decisive with ball and made his moves before the double could arrive. That is the key to AD’s game. He is going to get doubled if he doesn’t act immediately. His only flaw was trying to force baseline a few times when it it wasn’t there. We can go a long way with this AD.
The old geezer had another solid game. He made big mouth Brooks look foolish. And it clearly got into his head. I really didn’t want him getting tossed. Our defense is better when plays. Everyone knows that Brooks is a poor shooter except for apparently him. I don’t even like it when he gets in foul trouble. His defense has not been that disruptive and it’s nice when he’s out there laying bricks.
Rui has been amazing. The kid has the skill and the body to be a star in this league. You can trace his emergence to when coach Ham sat him for a game. It was like last year when Frank sat Malik to send a message. Ham didn’t think Rui was being aggressive enough. Well it worked. It also looks like he adjusted his 3 point shot. It appears to have more arch now. It was really flat before. While I think Rui will be a starter next year I can understand him coming off the bench now. We are not getting much scoring from the 2nd unit. He’s about the only one. But he only got 22 minutes. He should get more than that.
Austin is our Manu Ginóbili. He just makes winning plays. Timely shots. Timely defense. He is always solid.
Does anyone other than myself want to see Lonnie get some run in place of Beasley? Beasley isn’t giving us anything. Lonnie is a good scorer and that 2nd unit needs scoring. At least give the kid a chance to see what he can do.
While I doubt we will see another quarter like the first one, if AD plays with the way he did yesterday, I think we will go back to Memphis up 3-1.
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Very well said, Michael. One thing I think AD needs to correct is his lack of a go-to move. When he’s at his peak form it doesn’t matter because everything he tries works well enough. But when he’s not at his best, the lack of a repeatable reliable scoring move makes his game seem tentative and disjointed. He is a nightmare to any opponent when he is engaged like last night.
As for Lonnie, I have been chirping for him to take Beasly’s minutes for a while now. It is getting to a point where I feel like we are missing an opportunity to be even more lethal. I would suggest the same for Mo Bamba. There is something to be tapped from Lonnie and Bamba. Thanks for the post.
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Old Geezer played ok, but he hardly tore anyone’s heart out. Brooks is a clown, but still managed to get into his head. That weak little double pump reverse he barely got over the rim, followed by getting hung on that tired old tomahawk told another story. Now, he’s facing down one night’s rest followed by a rough travel schedule.
Most indicators says this won’t bode well for him. If AD can play like last night rather than the previous two, they’ve got a shot. If the role players can see 2-3 of them have a plus night, they might just pull this off.
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I agree definitively he only defends in spurts. But he was 52% from the floor last night and he is 54% for the series so far. He career playoff average is 49%. So efficiency isn’t a problem.
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DJ, I agree with LeBron’s missing 3-point shot. Quite frankly I don’t want him to be taking those 3s unless they are in the flow of the game. Missing those 3s is a waste of possession and they are momentum killers. They have the same effect as turnovers. It is very unwatchable when he misses those shots while the other team gains free possession.
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Dump the Beaser! Rui should be getting 35 minutes! I still think Mem ain’t going to be a pushover Monday.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
It appears that there is no time table for Kawhi to return and he is out again today. The media fixates so much on AD and Lebrons injuries, yet Kawhi and PG has been hurt as much, if not more. It is clear that the basketball gods do not want the Clippers in LA. Every time they field a contender, they are struck down by injuries.
A healthy Clipper team was actually the team I feared the most in the West but it looks as if the Suns will move on if they can stay healthy. After all they have KD and CP3, neither have been a model of health.
While the Suns starting unit is the best in the NBA, they have no depth. KD and Booker are averaging 43 minutes a game, while CP3 is playing 39. One wonders how far they can advance with those 3 playing heavy minutes. They desperately need a few blow out wins, just to avoid playing their stars into the ground.
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Phoenix looks like they’re coming together with KD and that’s going to be a problem. Course we got our own tough series now so sticking to focusing on that. Russ played out of his mind, rest of the team was pedestrian. Would have Stu know/Zunac more over Morris who just looks old.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
Making the 7th seed was huge for this team. Besides the obvious, easier playoff path. Going down the stretch the Lakers looked tired. Yes they kept winning but they were squeaking out wins against 2nd units and generally bad teams. Securing the 7th seed gave them time to rest. As important as the rest was they also gave them practice time. Something this new squad desperately needed. Now we don’t play until Wednesday. More rest. More practice. Considering this team is still learning each other, I think the playoff schedule benefits the Lakers more then any other team in the playoffs.
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“Going down the stretch the Lakers looked tired. Yes, they kept winning but they were squeaking out wins against 2nd units and generally bad teams.”
That is because they played 8 games in 13 days on the road. At first, I could not understand why they look so flat in games toward the end of the season. But that was a lot of traveling and playing at a high level. The good thing is they won games except for the second night of the final back-to-back against the Clippers.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
Until the trade deadline we just didn’t have enough depth to win consistently.
Rui 29 points 5 for 6 from 3
Austin 23 points 4 assists (Game ball}
DLO 19 points 7 assists
Vando’s defense on Ja. He had 18 points but only 2 assists and 6 turnovers. He just wasn’t a huge factor.
The Griz handled AD and LeBron as much as you can hope for but they will have to adjust for the others and this in turn will give Lebron and AD more room to operate.
It’s nice to finally have some others. -
Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha
While we were underwhelming against reserves a lot of teams have been. The Kings lost to the Nuggets 2nd unit with all the starters.
The important thing is we are in and at home against the TWolves. It will be interesting to to see what they do with Rudy. Heard on a broadcast that McDaniel broke his hand. He punched a wall. What’s up with these guys throwing punches?
If we get past the TWolves, I like our bracket. The Griz will be without Adams and Clarke so I think we have the edge there. Then we get the winner of the Warriors and Kings. We avoid both the Suns and the Clippers who have had our number. Hopefully we will pick up our energy because we haven’t had much the last few games.
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I have been very worried about the Lakers’ lack of energy during matinee games. Has anybody noticed that? Are those games too early for them? The past several games have not been impressive even though they are all wins.
I just want to see the team play with hunger and take good care of the ball. Way too many turnovers from James these past few games. We are talking about 5 turnovers a game these past two games. At least he did better today and I love his mindset and composure in this game. Hope that carries over to the next game.
The good thing – we signed Tristan Thompson and Shaq Harrison for insurance. That’s a nice move, just wish it had been done earlier. Now, let’s hope Schroeder recovers just in time for the playoff battles.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
The Jazz beat the Nuggets team that played all their starters. And the Jazz rested both Sexton and THT. I bet Danny is tearing his hair out right now. We can not relax.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
With all the minutes they played last night, I figured the plan was to rest them against up. Still we better be ready. The Nuggets 2nd unit nearly beat the Suns last night and a short handed Jazz team took us to OT, hope that is still fresh in the Lakers mind. While this is a break, we still need to take care of business.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
Another big set of games tonight and seeding may be impacted again by who plays. I watched a little of the Suns game last night. They squeezed out a win against a Nuggets team that rested their entire starting unit. I was surprised that KD played 41 minutes in a meaningless game.CP3 played 37. With nothing to play for will they rest them tonight?
The Warriors are at the Kings. And the Knicks are at the Pels. The Kings and Kicks are both locked into their slots so it will be interesting to see if either rests their stars.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
Can you lose even when you win a game. We will see tomorrow night. The Clippers haven’t played since Saturday. We will come in after 4 games on the road on a back to back. This was a game we needed to win early and rest our guys. Instead LeBron, AD and Austin played 42 minutes and Dennis played 38. Even without PG tomorrow will be a challenge.
We scored at will but where was the D?
Austin will be a Laker a long time. No one can offer more then us in the first 2 years and we can match anyone in those last 2 years.
Last year Malik wasn’t going hard enough on defense and Frank benched him. This year Rui got bench a game and he’s been terrific since. His effort on both sides of the ball has been great.
I am really hoping DLO can go tomorrow. Our 2nd really suffers when Dennis has to start. Dennis has filled nicely starting but he is more valuable running the 2nd unit.
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The team is tired and road weary. You could tell by the lack of energy. But am glad we got the win. My biggest concern is DLo. Is he injury prone? I mean he’s been here for a month but has missed as many games as he’s played. Any news on Mo Bamba? We are at a point where we need everybody. Tonight’s game will be a tough one with the Clippers having 4 days off and we are coming from a road trip.
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Bamba was move from out to doubt full for the Jazz game. That’s actually good news. It means he’s close to coming back.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
Last night we got the MVP version of AD. He dominated with 38 and 17. Eight of those boards were offensive. This was against the biggest front line in the NBA. Two 7 footers and a 6’ 9” guy. Although Kat reminded everyone why the TWolves went after Rudy. Kat isn’t much of a defender. But, there is always a but with AD. He sprained his ankle. This is the first concern. While he actually played better after the sprain, it wouldn’t be the first time a guy sprained an ankle and was able to play through it, only to be unable to go the next game. Fortunately we have the Rockets next. Oh wait, they beat us last time without AD. Let’s just hope he can play through the ankle.
LeBron is the other concern. He hasn’t looked like himself since coming back. It could be rust, a timing, conditioning thing. Or it could be the foot. We might be able to make the playoffs but we won’t be able to go far unless Lebron is playing at a high level.
As for the rest of the guys. We are seeing our defense coming together and it should only get better as everyone learns each other. Isn’t it nice having wing defenders with size? Vandy and Rui were both excellent on the defensive end. Rui did a great job against Kat and Vandy drew Ant man who only scored 11 points.
Then there is our guards. The entire game shifted when Dennis entered in the 3rd quarter. On television Stu gave Dennis the game ball. His constant pressure, and quick hands that led to deflections and steals were amazing. Conley had been torching us but as usual Dennis stayed in front of him. It’s defending these smaller, quicker guards where Dennis really shines.
It’s also nice having 2 6’ 5” starting guards. With Lebrons declining defense it gives us two guys that can switch onto his man. This is what made out bubble teams defense so effective.
Have to give a shout out to Malik. He only got 10 minutes but he was 3 for 4 from 3 and was instrumental in closing that first quarter deficit.
This was the biggest game of the year. Now we go on to the Rockets, the biggest game of the year. Then the Jazz the biggest game of the year, etc. they have to approach each game like it is the single elimination play in, because it kind of is. Win out and we have a good shot at the 6th seed. Like it has all year, it might come down to an ankle and a foot. Let’s hope our big two stars can stay on the court.
1 Comment-
That is a very good analysis, Michael. What I like about this team is their level of composure. They are playing like they are superior instead of looking rattled when the opposing team goes on a run. The only thing that is going to hold this team back is the health of AD and LeBron. But, otherwise, we have a depth to help cover many of the holes we may have.
Shout out to the whole team, but a special shout out to Dennis the menace for an outstanding job both defensively and offensively, especially with his ability to get to the free-throw line. Very satisfactory win. Let’s see if we can continue to dominate the rest of the road trip.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
First the Hornets beat the Mav’s back to back. Now today they knock off the Thunder. And the Hornets didn’t play any of their vets.
2 Comments-
Watched most of this one and it smelled alot like that game we lost to Houston. Rested SGA on the front end of a back to back probably thinking this would be an easy win. Then ended up missing 2 huge clutch free throws in crunch time. Can’t assume anything right now..Bad loss for them.
Meanwhile, either the Pels or Dubs will meet us at 38 losses tonight. KD back for PHX tomorrow vs the Wolves could put them down with us at 38 losses too.
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