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  1. FROM ABOVE ARTICLE:

    Do the Lakers have any chance of surviving without Luka and Austin?

    We grinded through 82 games and the playoffs are finally here. The fun should start, but for the Lakers the party was spoiled before it even began. Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves both open the series on the injury list, each doing everything possible to find a way back at some point.

    Their absence changes everything. With the team’s two primary scorers out and no clear timeline for their return, this becomes a much different exercise than a typical series preview.

    So this one focuses on the first phase of the matchup. What do Dončić- and Reaves-less Lakers look like against the Rockets, and do they have any realistic path to surviving early in the series?

    And if things shift, we adjust. If either of the two stars makes it back, we pivot into a more traditional, game-by-game preview approach as the series evolves.

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    Today’s highlights:

    Can the stretched-out first round format help the Lakers?

    Will this series be another warning sign for the Lakers to adapt their team-building vision?

    Who wins the key matchup of veteran superstars?

    Which coach can extend his short rotation?

    Key Lakers challenge: size and rebounding

    Key Lakers question: can the Lakers play Luke Kennard heavy minutes? (🎞️VIDEO)

    Key Lakers tactic on offense: attack Sengun and Sheppard (🎞️VIDEO)

    Key Rockets challenge: shooting and decision making

    Key Lakers tactic on defense: blitzing Durant (🎞️VIDEO)

    Is it time for irrational confidence?

    1-Can the stretched-out first round format help the Lakers?

    OK, I said I’ll approach this preview as if there’s no Dončić and no Reaves, but the real storyline hanging over everything is their race against time. That’s the question we’ll all be tracking throughout the series: can either of them make it back at any point?

    The schedule at least gives the Lakers a small window of hope. With two days off before Games 2, 3, and 5, there is a bit more time for recovery, not just for Dončić and Reaves, but also for LeBron James, who at 41 will have to carry a massive load until they do. Those extra days matter.

    And when you map it out, the timeline becomes interesting. Game 3 lands roughly three weeks after the April 2 injuries in Oklahoma City. Game 5 pushes that to four weeks. If the series goes the distance, Game 7 would come with close to a full month of recovery. That’s the window the Lakers are hoping can keep this series alive long enough to change it.

    JJ Redick said Dončić and Reaves are out indefinitely and that there will be no further updates this week. But with Dončić scheduled to return from treatment in Spain to the U.S. tomorrow, the speculation and timeline watch will only intensify.

    As for whether Dončić, in particular, should even push for a return, I’d go back to the point I made right after the injury. Everything the Lakers have done since trading for him has been about the long term, not chasing short-term success this season. So unless he is fully healed and truly 100% ready, it’s hard to see the logic changing with their most important piece and risking anything ahead of a crucial offseason.

    2-Will this series be another warning sign for the Lakers to adapt their team-building vision?

    Before getting into the tactical matchups and series-specific questions, it’s worth zooming out to the bigger picture that this season, and potentially this series, might be pointing toward. Those of you who followed my NBA Trends series heading into last year’s playoffs will remember the idea of a new era defined by speed, athleticism, and aggressiveness.

    This past regular season only reinforced that direction, with two young teams that fully embraced it, the Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs, storming through the league and breaking the 60-win mark. The Trail Blazers–Suns play-in matchup was another example of two aggressive teams going at it, with Portland, the winner, setting the tone with their on-ball pressure already earlier in the season.

    As for the Lakers themselves, their playoff bracket has unfolded in a way that puts them on a direct collision course with two teams that embody this new, hyper-aggressive NBA. First, the Rockets, and if they somehow make it through, the gold standard of this new wave, the Oklahoma City Thunder, waiting in the second round.

    Lack of athleticism, speed, and aggressiveness were the main vulnerabilities of the Lakers all season, which they offset with elite on-ball creation and shot-making. Now that those advantages are mostly gone, we’ll see if they can adapt, or if the playoffs will serve as another warning for the front office when it comes to priorities for a huge offseason ahead.

    3-Who wins the key matchup of veteran superstars?

    Many factors decide a series, but having the best player on the floor is the baseline that makes everything else easier.

    LeBron James and Kevin Durant will meet in the playoffs for the first time since the 2018 NBA Finals. They have played 14 playoff games against each other.

    👑 LeBron averages 31.9 PPG
    🚀 Durant averages 31.7 PPG

    They are the only duo in NBA history to meet in 10 or more

    LeBron James will likely need to have a high-level shot-making series for the Lakers to stand a chance, and because of the defensive options Ime Udoka can throw at him, his job will be much harder than that of his counterpart Kevin Durant on the other end. Durant was the primary defender on James for the vast majority of possessions in the three regular season matchups, largely because Amen Thompson and Tari Eason were chasing Dončić and Reaves around the perimeter. Now, James will have to deal with much tougher defensive assignments.

    Of course, the Lakers will do everything possible to manipulate matchups (more on that later) to get James attacking weaker defenders, but it will be difficult for him to rely solely on his bully-ball game in the paint against one of the biggest teams in the league. His outside shot has been inconsistent for most of the season, but the Lakers will need him to deliver the kind of shot-making we saw in recent regular-season games, albeit against much tougher resistance than what the Rockets will provide.

    4-Which coach can extend his short rotation?

    This will be a matchup of two coaches who like to play their best players heavy minutes and tend to shorten their rotations in the playoffs. Over their last 15 games of the regular season, Udoka played his four key rotation pieces, Thompson, Smith Jr., Durant, and Sengun 33 minutes per game or more, with Thompson averaging 39.

    Tari Eason and Reed Sheppard round out the six-man core Udoka trusts and leans on for most of the minutes, with Josh Okogie, Aaron Holiday, and Clint Capela filling smaller, situational roles. In last year’s seven-game first-round series against the Warriors, Udoka settled into a short eight-man rotation after Game 3.

    We all remember how short JJ Redick’s rotation was against the Timberwolves, with him basically trusting just six players. With Dončić and Reaves out, the initial seven this year seem to be LeBron, Smart, Hachimura, Ayton, Kennard, LaRavia, and Hayes. But winning the physical and hustle battle with only seven players against a team like the Rockets is a very tough ask.

    Can any of Vanderbilt, Kleber, Bronny James, or Nick Smith Jr. provide anything off the bench? Redick highlighted that it will be all hands on deck and pointed to his trust in both Bronny and Smith Jr., but I remain more skeptical. Vanderbilt or Kleber making any kind of impact with hustle and defense to match the Rockets’ size is one of the breaks the Lakers might need to go their way.

    5-Key Lakers challenge: size and rebounding

    The Rockets dominated the glass in the three regular-season matchups, posting a massive 44.1% offensive rebounding rate against the Lakers. Even without Steven Adams, they remain the best offensive rebounding team in the league, which is why boxing out and rebounding drills have been a major focus of preparation for Redick and his group. However, no matter the drills, the Lakers will have a tough time overcoming their size and personnel issues. Starting two guards in Smart and Kennard against a Rockets lineup with no player shorter than the 6’7” athletic freak Thompson could be a real problem. Hachimura is a below-average rebounder for his position, and asking him and Ayton to battle on the boards for 30-plus minutes will be a big ask.

    Last year’s series against the Timberwolves, when the Lakers ran out of gas after battling an uphill fight against a much bigger opponent, was a hard lesson and a clear warning. The size disadvantage is why playing undersized guards like Bronny and Smith Jr. could be problematic, and why lineups featuring Vanderbilt or Kleber might make more sense.

    6-Key Lakers question: can the Lakers play Luke Kennard heavy minutes? (🎞️VIDEO)

    Luke Kennard was a great pickup and a real post-deadline success story for the Lakers, but I have a feeling this might be a tough series for him. That’s especially true in the high-minute, secondary playmaking role the Lakers have used him in and now need from him without their two primary ball-handling options.

    I mentioned rebounding, and Thompson and Eason attack smaller guard units, like the Lakers with Kennard and Smart (or Reaves in prior games), or the Suns with Booker and Gillespie, almost like it’s a personal vendetta.

    Kennard’s lack of athleticism just seems like a tough matchup against Thompson or Eason on both ends. I expect one of them to pick him up, apply full-court pressure, and make his two-man actions with LeBron less effective, since the Rockets can simply switch those actions. Kennard, as great as his shooting has been, is also the epitome of the Lakers’ broader athleticism deficit that I pointed out in the second section.

    7-Key Lakers tactic on offense: attack Sengun and Sheppard (🎞️VIDEO)

    I mentioned that Udoka fully trusts six players, and the Rockets’ issue is that two of them, Sengun and Sheppard, are defensive liabilities the Lakers have already targeted aggressively. Sheppard was hunted in the first game of the March two-game series, and Sengun in the second.

    Without Dončić, who was the main hunter in those two games, this will be more difficult to pull off, but I’m sure the Lakers’ key tactic will be putting LeBron in positions to try to exploit either of those two weak links. Empty screen actions with a guard—Smart and Reaves for most of the season, and Kennard in recent games—were the preferred way to do that. As mentioned, I expect Udoka to put his better wing defenders on Kennard and Smart so they can switch, while trying to hide Sheppard on less reliable decision-makers like LaRavia, or maybe even Hachimura.

    Sengun can be a bit more difficult to hide, but if LeBron can expose him in drop, either by knocking down mid-range jumpers or feeding Ayton with pocket and skip passes.

    You could see a similar tactic, with the Rockets putting a wing on Ayton and hiding Sengun on a lesser threat would allow the Rockets to switch more freely and force James to beat them one-on-one. Benching Sengun and going to an all-wing lineup with no obvious weak spots is the ultimate defensive ace Udoka can pull to get stops.

    8-Key Rockets challenge: shooting and decision making

    Reading this so far, you’ve probably come to the conclusion that I’m not very high on the Lakers’ chances, and that’s mostly true. The talent disparity, along with the size and athleticism gap, seems too big for the Lakers to overcome. The reason I still think they have a chance is the Rockets’ often questionable decision-making and their tendency to self-destruct, especially down the stretch. They are heavy favorites, and the pressure will be on them to close this series out quickly. If the Lakers can keep games close into the final minutes, the Rockets’ clutch issues could resurface. The Rockets were 22–23 in clutch games this season and ranked third worst in the NBA with a -4.1 win differential, meaning they lost significantly more games than their point differential would suggest.

    Sheppard is their only true point guard, with Aaron Holiday playing a minor role off the bench, and they often run units without a traditional ball-handler or organizer. Sheppard and Thompson are the only two main rotation players who average more than 2.5 dribbles per touch, and neither is a proven decision-maker. The Rockets finished the season with the third-worst turnover rate in the league, and the Lakers will need to win the turnover battle if they want to somehow mitigate the rebounding and possession gap.

    The other question mark for the Rockets is shooting. Thompson is a non-shooter outside the paint, and Sengun is not a reliable threat from three either. Eason, who opened the season on fire from deep, shooting 46% before the All-Star break, fell off a cliff to just 22% afterward. Those struggles even led Udoka to bench him, starting either Sheppard or Josh Okogie in recent games instead. The same happened with Dorian Finney-Smith’s shooting, and he fell out of the rotation entirely. Redick and the Lakers have shown they can put together solid defensive plans when opponents have weak links to expose and help off, which is another reason for some modest optimism.

    For the Lakers to extend this series beyond five games, they’ll need an edge in shooting, which is why keeping Kennard on the floor, alongside another key threat in Hachimura, will be a crucial tactical battle. If Eason’s and others’ shooting struggles carry over into the playoffs, Udoka may have to rely more on Sheppard and Holiday, which would make life on offense much easier for LeBron and Kennard.

    9-Key Lakers tactic on defense: blitzing Durant (🎞️VIDEO)

    The Lakers successfully exposed the Rockets’ decision-making and shooting issues by aggressively blitzing Durant in their two previous matchups. They managed to frustrate him, forcing long stretches without shots or points, along with several turnovers.

    The playoffs are where tactical surprises usually show up, as teams scout and prepare extensively for counters and counter-adjustments. But in this case, I don’t think Redick has many real alternatives to the blitzing approach. They can tweak when and from where they send the double teams, but it’s hard to see a path to containing Durant without it. Smart doesn’t have the size to truly bother him, and the other options, LaRavia and Hachimura, aren’t defenders you feel comfortable trusting against one of the best isolation scorers in the game.

    Another argument for continuing to blitz and scramble is one I’ve highlighted throughout the season. It’s the best way to maximize the defensive playmaking of Smart, LaRavia, and Vanderbilt, much more than relying on individual one-on-one containment. Again, the Lakers’ best chance is for the Rockets to shoot themselves in the foot, and it could start by knocking Durant out of his comfort zone and exposing the decision-making and trust issues that have been a theme of their season, including the KD burner saga.

    A lot of the Rockets’ clutch issues came from not clearly knowing who to play through in key moments, Durant or Sengun, while the Lakers won’t have that same uncertainty. The ball will be in LeBron’s hands, and they’ll need him to defy age once again and be the best primary option in the series, going up against opponents nearly 20 years younger.

    10-Is it time for irrational confidence?

    The rational view says the Lakers don’t have much of a chance, and this could be over quickly. Without Dončić and Reaves, it’s hard to see how they generate consistent offense. The size and athleticism gap also feels too big to overcome. The Lakers have been a finesse team all season, but now they’ll have to win a fight in the trenches against a team that thrives there.

    However, hope, irrational confidence, is why we watch sports. Sometimes the underdog surprises the favorite. Maybe the Lakers get a couple of lucky bounces and steal a game or two early. Maybe they get good news and reinforcements arrive faster than expected. Neither is very likely, but not impossible.

    What this team has shown all season is that no matter who is on the floor, they’ll keep fighting as long as they have a chance. And that should be a good enough reason to look forward to Game 1 on Saturday.

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