Devastated by season-ending injuries to their superstar duo of Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, the Los Angeles Lakers have no choice now but to turn to 41-year old LeBron James to come to the rescue and save their season.
There’s no question last week’s thrashing by the champion Thunder not only derailed the Lakers’ pipe dream of joining the West’s top tier of teams but likely also cost them any realistic chance of going deep in the playoffs. LA’s daunting championship path now requires #4 Lakers without Doncic and Reaves to win first round playoff series vs. #5 Rockets and hope Luka and/or Austin are miraculously back to beat the Thunder and then Spurs.
Before the first loss to the Thunder, the Lakers’ odds to win the NBA championship were at a season-best 30 to 1. After the first loss to OKC and news of Doncic’s and Reaves’ injuries, LA’s odds plummetted to 125 to 1.
With the #4 Lakers now scheduled to start their first round series with the #5 Rockets on Saturday April 18th at 5:30 pm PDT without Luka and Austin, the odds that undermanned LA would defeat Houston are around 6 to 1.
The good news for LA is that after their 3-game losing streak that included home and away thrashings by OKC, they seemingly once again strongly rebounded, finishing the season with an impressive 3-game win streak.
With James and Kennard taking over the playmaking and Hachimura and Ayton taking and making more shots, Redick and the Lakers hope to have found the formula to upset the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs.
The Lakers need to prolong the playoffs so Doncic and Reaves can return. Here are four reasons why LeBron James can rekindle Lakers’ extinguished championship hopes by defeating the Rockets in round one of the playoffs.
1. ‘PLAYOFF’ LEBRON JAMES!
…
The biggest reason the Lakers without Luka and Austin have a realistic chance to upset the Rockets and advance to the second round of the playoffs is ‘Playoff’ LeBron is healthy and already in playoff mode.
LeBron finished season with 20.9 points, 6.1 boards, 7.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.6 blocks in 33.2 mpg. In 3 games without Luka and Austin, he averaged 24.0 points, 6.0 boards, 9.7 assists, 3.0 steals, 0.3 blocks in 26.8 mpg.
While they can’t realistically ask a 41-year old superstar to lead them to a championship without Luka and Austin, the Lakers with a physically and mentally healthy and motivated ‘Playoff’ LeBron could beat the Rockets.
‘Playoff’ LeBron James is an entirely different animal than ‘Regular Season’ LeBron James. During the regular season, his career averages are 26.8 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 7.4 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.7 bpg with shooting splits of 51.5/34.8/73.7%.
During the playoffs, LeBron turns into a different player, especially on defense. James’ career playoff numbers across the board are 28.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 7.2 apg, 1.7 spg, 1.0 bpg with shooting splits of 49.6/33.3/74.1%.
While Doncic and Reaves hope to be able to return in time for the second round of the playoffs, James and his teammates will literally be playing for their purple and gold futures during the first round series vs. the Rockets.
What the Lakers’ new ownership decides to do next summer will likely depend greatly on how successful JJ Redick, LeBron James, and the rest of the roster are in defeating the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs.
There’s no bigger master of playoff basketball than LeBron James, the NBA West Player of the Week for the final week of the season. ‘Playoff’ LeBron is the single biggest reason the Lakers could upset the Rockets in Round 1.
2. SMART & KENNARD BACKCOURT!
…
While they can’t replace Luka and Austin’s 60 ppg, 12 rpg, and 14 apg, LA’s new starting backcourt of Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard has the scoring and playmaking chops to help LeBron beat Houston in playoffs first round.
32-year old Marcus Smart played 62 games with the Lakers, averaging 9.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.4 spg, and 0.4 bpg in 28.5 mpg. Smart is LA’s best defensive player and, without Doncic and Reaves, their best playmaker.
In the last 2 games since Luka and Austin were injured, Marcus averaged 5.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 8.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 0.5 blocks in 22.2 mpg. Without Luka and Austin, his 8.5 assists per game was the difference.
29-year old Luke Kennard played 29 games with the Lakers, averaging 9.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.7 steals, and 0.1 blocks in 23.0 mpg. Luke showed point guard savvy and skills he hadn’t used since high school.
In the 3 games since Luka and Austin were injured, Luke averaged 12.0 points, 1.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.3 steals, and 0.0 blocks in 23.8 mpg. Kennard has stepped up as a quality backup when Smart needs to rest.
While it will take a team-wide effort to replace Doncic and Reaves’ 60 ppg, Smart and Kennard combined should have an excellent change to match the 12 rpg and 14 apg averaged by the Lakers’ original starting backcourt.
The good news is Smart and Kennard understand the enormity of the challenge and are confident that, with the leadership of James, the Lakers are good enough to beat the Rockets even without Doncic and Reaves.
Losing your top two scoring and playmaking guards would be a death knell for most NBA teams but the recent elite backcourt play of Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard shows the diversity and depth of this Lakers roster.
3. LAKERS’ CHAMPIONSHIP CULTURE!
…
Despite Luka Doncic missing 18 games, Austin Reaves 31 games, and LeBron James 22 games, the Los Angeles Lakers not only survived but, when finally healthy, dominated due to their ‘championship culture.’
Starting with his exit interviews after the last year’s playoff exit, JJ Redick set an impossibly high bar for the offseason, challenging every Lakers player to come into this season’s training camp in ‘championship shape.’
While Doncic was the obvious target of the ‘championship shape’ demand, credit Luka for having already decided to copy his idol LeBron James, lose weight, and return to the elite physical condition he was in 5 years ago.
Redick believes being in ‘championship shape’ along with developing ‘championship habits’ and ‘championship communication’ are the three cornerstones required for NBA teams to build ‘championship culture.’
It’s ‘championship culture’ that powered the Lakers to win 53 games and #4 seed in West despite missing 70 games from their Big Three and post an NBA-best 22–8 ‘clutch’ record with the #1 ‘clutch’ offensive and net rating.
The Lakers’ ‘championship culture’ was in full display during their last 24 games of the season, when they posted a 19–5 win-loss record that was 3rd best in the entire NBA, behind only the powerhouse Thunder and Spurs.
While missing Doncic and Reaves, the Lakers showed in their last 3 games that the heart and core of their ‘championship culture’ still beats strong, winning 3 straght blowouts to clinch home court in Round 1 of the playoffs.
Their ‘championship culture’ is the third big reason why the Los Angeles Lakers have a realistic chance, even without Doncic and Reaves, to upset the Houston Rockets in the first round of the upcoming 2026 NBA Playoffs.
4. LAKERS’ TOP-10 DEFENSE!
…
Because of their juggernaut offense-first Big Three of Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James, the Los Angeles Lakers’ defense hasn’t received the respect or recognition for becoming a legitimate top-10 NBA defense.
For the first 58 games, the Lakers posted a 116.8 defensive rating, which was #24 in the league. Over their last 24 games of the season, however, they have dramatically lowered their rating to 112.4, which was #9 in the league.
During that stretch, the Lakers defense shut down opponents, allowing the 1st fewest free throws, 3rd fewest 3-point makes, 9th fewest 3-point shots, 9th fewest points scored, 9th fewest assists, and 10th fewest rebounds.
Much of the criticism of the Lakers’ defense has been focused on the team’s offense-first Big Three of Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James, three players who are considered rightly or wrongly to be weak defenders.
Defensive ratings for first 58 games had Luka at 117.4 (#9), Austin at 113.9 (#5), and LeBron at 115.2 (#7). Defensive rating for last 24 games were much better. Luka was at 111.0 (#8), Austin at 109.9 (#6), and LeBron at 106.6 (#2).
During their recent 3-game winning streak to finish the season without Doncic and Reaves, the Lakers defense posted a 98.6 rating, which was #1 in the league, and a 23.3 net rating, which was also #1 in the league.
The Lakers’ defense for these 3 games was led by 10 players with individual defensive ratings of 100.0 or less, including all of LA’s projected rotation players with LeBron James’ surprising 86.7 the team-best defensive rating.
There’s a valid argument to be made that the Los Angeles Lakers’ team defense without Doncic and Reaves should be just as strong because those are their two weakest defenders on their starting and closing lineups.
The Lakers have a massive mountain to climb, this moment feels like the last 1/2 hour or so of the movie Secratariat where a horse and jockey who ought not to be racing go all in. The Lakers need a to find a Hollywood ending to this series and it can start with a solid showing Saturday night.