FROM ABOVE ARTICLE:

Prior to Sunday’s win against the New Orleans Pelicans, I asked Los Angeles Lakers coach JJ Redick a team identity question.

No team passes the ball less than the Lakers. Per Second Spectrum, the Lakers are the only team through Monday’s games that don’t average at least 270 passes (269.4). Only the Utah Jazz, LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets average fewer than the 40 drives per game that the Lakers average.

“We don’t talk a lot about — we don’t have a target goal for passes or anything like that,” Redick replied. “We do have a target goal for assists.”

Yet, the Lakers have the NBA’s sixth-best offense, up from 11th last season. And no team makes a higher percentage of field goals than the 51.3 percent the Lakers are converting.

Obviously, it helps to have the NBA’s leading scorer in point guard Luka Dončić, and the NBA’s top No. 2 scorer in shooting guard Austin Reaves. And 23-year NBA veteran LeBron James, who has scored the most points ever, just got back two weeks ago.

“I think the nature of our roster, again, we have one of like — this is maybe, this is pretty like clear, but maybe it needs to get said — we have like, I’d say, one of the greatest offensive engines to ever play basketball,” Redick said, describing Dončić. “So, he’s gonna have the ball in his hands because of that. We then have a second guy now who, statistically, is one of the greatest offensive engines in this year’s NBA. So, he’s gonna have the ball in his hands. So, us just passing the ball around mindlessly, like, it’s not —that’s not how we’re gonna play basketball. We’re gonna try to create an advantage with those guys. And then, you add LeBron into that mix, we feel like we can create advantage with those guys.”

The Lakers are 15-5. They began and ended the first quarter of the 2025-26 season with double-digit home losses against Pacific Division opponents, losing the season opener to the Golden State Warriors and losing the first game of December to the Phoenix Suns on the second night of a back-to-back, the first loss with James in the lineup. Between that, the Lakers racked up an 11-win November, the most wins in a month since they went 12-4 as defending champions in January 2021.

This is a team that takes wins when they are available. The Lakers are the only team that is undefeated in clutch time (6-0) this season. They are 14-0 when leading by more than 10 points at any point in a game. When they trail by more than 10 points, Lakers games are a coin flip, as they have a 5-5 record in those games.

Yet, there are obvious areas of improvement. After ranking 17th in defensive efficiency last season, the Lakers are 18th through 20 games this season. They ranked 22nd in the possession battle through Thanksgiving, which is my metric that determines the combined differential of offensive rebounds and opponent turnovers (the Lakers ranked 24th in this margin last season).

Their most-played starting lineup features Marcus Smart with Dončić, Reaves, power forward Rui Hachimura and new starting center Deandre Ayton. That lineup has outscored foes by 27 points in 76 minutes, and the Lakers have a 6-2 record when those five play together, with a points-per-possession output of 114.2 on offense and 100.6 on defense in five-man lineups.

By contrast, James has played 49 minutes with Dončić, Reaves, Hachimura and Ayton. While the Lakers are 3-1 in those games, that five-man lineup has been outscored 126-122 while scoring only 109.9 points per 100 possessions and allowing 118.9 points per 100 possessions. In the 91 minutes that James has shared the floor with Dončić and Reaves, the Lakers score only 111.2 points per 100 possessions while allowing 120.6 points per 100 possessions. Small sample, but at least defensively, it’s something that was apparent last season as well.

Still, it’s good to be on pace to win 60 games. It’s even better to be on that pace with improving health and the knowledge that the Lakers understand that they can learn more about what they have. Redick said he told Dončić that he had “no idea the level of paranoia that I live with as a coach” to describe the weight of developing while winning.

“It’s a great start,” Redick said of his team after the Pelicans game and before the loss to the Suns. “There’s a lot of slices of pizza left in the box that we can still get after. There’s a lot of room for improvement for our team. Which, to me, is a positive.”

The second quarter of the season features the NBA Cup knockout round, a five-game homestand that begins on Christmas against the Houston Rockets, and ends with a visit to the Denver Nuggets in January that commences an eight-game road trip. For now, let’s assess what we saw from the Lakers in the first quarter of the season:

Perimeter offense

The only players in the NBA averaging more points in isolation this season than Dončić (7.0) are James Harden and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Only Harden makes more pull-up 3s per game than Dončić (2.8). And no player scores more points per game out of ball screens than Dončić (14.2). When you add what Reaves is doing to the on-ball equation, which includes more made free throws (8.0) than any player in the league besides Doncic’s league-leading 9.7, Gilgeous-Alexander and Harden, then you have some powerful offensive forces at hand.

Now, there is a flip side to that. No team attempts or makes fewer catch-and-shoot 3s than the Lakers. And overall, the Lakers are not a good 3-point shooting team, ranking 20th in percentage (35.2) and 25th in makes per game (11.7). Smart takes more 3s than anyone outside of Dončić and Reaves, and that’s not a good thing with Smart at 25.4 percent on 4.5 attempts per game.

The Lakers rank eighth in midrange field goals made per game (4.3) and second in midrange field goal percentage (48.6). Dončić leads the volume in that department, but Hachimura is off to an excellent start shooting, making 56.8 percent from midrange, 47.1 percent on corner 3s and 45.2 percent above the break, which makes a night where Hachimura attempts only one shot like he did against the Suns on Monday that much more perplexing for this offense.

The Lakers have incredible finishers. Dončić is making 90.7 percent of his shots in the restricted area. Reaves makes 80.7 percent in the restricted area. Ayton is at 76.8 percent, while backup center Jaxson Hayes is at 77.5.

Even when the Lakers don’t get all the way to the rim, they are devastating. The Lakers rank 10th in paint points per game (52.8), and they have four players who attempt at least 1.5 shots per game in the non-restricted area paint and make better than 50 percent of those attempts: Dončić (54.4), Reaves (57.3), Ayton (64.1) and Hachimura (57.1).

The Lakers rank only 19th in offensive rebound percentage. Ayton (2.7 offensive rebounds per game) is the only Laker averaging more than 1.5 offensive rebounds.

Control

The Lakers average 25.7 assists, which ranks 20th. That’s down slightly from last year, when the Lakers ranked 18th at 26 assists per game. Dončić averages 8.9 assists, while Reaves adds another 6.6. James is already up to 7.2 assists per contests, which for the first time, is more than the made field goals he averages (5.8).

But this is not just a team that passes infrequently. The Lakers are the most careless team in the league when it comes to taking care of the ball. No team has a worse turnover percentage than the Lakers. And only four teams have more live-ball turnovers per game. After a nine-turnover outing against the Suns, Dončić is averaging a league-leading 4.3 giveaways. You can count on Dončić donating a possession once a quarter. And Reaves ranks 18th with 3.3 turnovers per game. Smart (2.9 assists per game) is the only other Laker besides Dončić, James or Reaves averaging more than two assists. Both Hachimura and Ayton have more turnovers than assists.

James’ return should help the Lakers more here than any other area. The Lakers can score. They have shown that they have a lack of not just playmaking depth but also adequate decision-making capability as well.

Pressure

The Lakers are right in the middle of the league in steals, ranking 16th (8.5 per game). They rank 12th in opponent turnover rate, which is notable considering that the Lakers’ defense also ranks third in lowest free-throw attempt rate.

Dončić (1.6 steals) and Reaves (1.2 steals) have active hands, and no team draws more charges than the Lakers, with Reaves drawing seven and Dončić right behind him with six. Dončić drew just four charges last season. Backup forward Jake LaRavia adds 1.2 steals per game as well.

But Smart is the player who turns up the pressure most for the Lakers. He leads the Lakers with 1.8 steals per game, and the Lakers are a whole lot more uncomfortable to deal with when Smart is out there (and when Dončić is not on the floor).

Interior defense

The Lakers ranked seventh through Thanksgiving in paint scoring differential. They are decent at keeping teams outside of the paint and are a big team that rebounds well. After being a bottom-10 rebounding team last season, they are in the top 10 this season. When Dončić and Ayton share the floor, the Lakers hold foes to a 28.7 offensive rebound percentage. That mark would rank fourth-best for a team all season.

The issue for the Lakers is that their rim protection is awful, particularly if Ayton isn’t around to contest shots. Opponents make only 56.8 percent of shots defended by Ayton at the rim, and Ayton is up to 1.1 blocks per game. But the Lakers rank 28th in rim protection. Dončić is their second-most frequent rim protector this season, and that’s not ideal, as opponents make 74.2 percent of shots at the rim with Dončić there. That number rises to 75.8 percent when Hachimura is protecting the basket. When it’s Hayes, the number is 68.4, which is poor for a center.

The Lakers prioritize winning in the paint and finishing possessions with rebounds. Inducing misses is a challenge for the Lakers, as they rank 24th in field goal percentage allowed.

Perimeter defense

Last season, the Lakers were very good defending isolations and pick-and-rolls. That has absolutely not been the case this season. They just don’t have as many strong defenders, and teams have done a better job making shots to start the season. Last year, opponents made only 35.6 percent from 3 (10th-lowest). This season, Lakers opponents are making 37 percent from 3 (ranked 24th) at about the same volume. The Lakers are also playing with a center more often this season, and that has not helped the Lakers defend outside of the paint.

The Lakers continue to be dominant when it comes to not putting teams on the line. Only the Hornets and Grizzlies allow a lower free-throw attempt rate, and the Lakers are trailing only the Magic in free-throw differential after leading the league in that category in each of the previous three seasons.

It will be interesting to see how much better the perimeter defense can be as James plays more games and takes more minutes from players such as Smart and LaRavia, and with Jarred Vanderbilt losing a rotation spot to Maxi Kleber.

Special teams

There should be basketball special teams. In football, special teams is the kicking game, which includes the field goals as well as the returning of kickoffs and punts. In basketball, you have the conversion of free throws as well as fast-break offense versus transition defense.

The Lakers are one of 12 teams making at least 80 percent from the free-throw line. That would be their best single-season mark since 1988-89. It helps that Dončić is over 80 percent for the first time ever (81.2), while Reaves has improved to a career-best 88.3 percent.

Per Second Spectrum, only the Rockets average a lower speed than the Lakers (4.12 miles per hour). That speed shows up in transition on both ends of the floor, and the Lakers rank 24th in fast-break points per game (13.3) despite ranking 20th in pace. The Lakers allow 15.3 fast-break points per game, which ranks 16th but is actually an improvement from last season, when they finished 25th. Again, James has the reputation of positively affecting play in transition. But the Lakers also just got beaten 28-2 in fast break points by the Suns, with James coming off two days’ rest.

Yes it was the second night of a back to back and the 3rd game in 4 night, but it still is no excuse for the lack of energy on that scale. And there are some games that we can have to much Luka and Austin and not a lot of ball movement.

I think if one’s reaction is that the Lakers struggle mightily to score when the whistle is quiet you would be making an astute observation. Free throws isn’t a game plan, it’s a byproduct of aggression and execution. If you reacted to the fact that, once the whistles never came, the team made no real adjustment over the course of the game you would also be making an astute point. The other relevant point is that we were likely playing on dead legs. All of it together are wonderful ingredients in a loss.

Analytics Made Dodgers Champs! What Does Data Say Lakers Need? Analytics is the elephant in the room no NBA reporters are talking about that transformed the Los Angeles Dodgers into a championship franchise and will be at the heart of the modernization of the Los Angeles… pic.twitter.com/barDaonGtP— LakerTom (@LakerTom) December 2, 2025

Analytics Made Dodgers Champs! What Does Data Say Lakers Need? 1. BETTER POA DEFENSEANDREW WIGGINS, DILLON BROOKS, & KEON ELLISAndrew Wiggins, SF, 6′ 7″, 210 lbs, 30-yrs, $28.2M, 4-yrs, 1.0/1.0 in 32.9 mpgDillon Brooks, SF, 6′ 7″, 225 lbs, 29-yrs, $21.1M, 2-yrs, 0.2/1.8… pic.twitter.com/veLGMZ5S1b— LakerTom (@LakerTom) December 2, 2025

Analytics Made Dodgers Champs! What Does Data Say Lakers Need? 2. BETTER RIM PROTECTIONROBERT WILLIAMS III, DANIEL GAFFORD, & JONATHAN ISAACRobert Williams III, CE, 6′ 9″, 248 lbs, 26-yrs, $13.2M, 1-yr, 1.3/0.7 in 13.7 mpgDaniel Gafford, CE, 6′ 10″, 265 lbs, 247-yrs,… pic.twitter.com/jjrZegJWVl— LakerTom (@LakerTom) December 2, 2025

Analytics Made Dodgers Champs! What Does Data Say Lakers Need? 3. BETTER 3-POINT SHOOTINGLEBRON JAMES, RUI HACHIMURA, & KEON ELLISLeBron James, PF, 6′ 8″, 250 lbs, 40-yrs, $52.6M, 1-yr, 2.1/5.7 for 37.6% (LYR)Rui Hachimura, PF, 6′ 8″, 230 lbs, 27-yrs, $18.2M, 1-yr, 1.9/4.0… pic.twitter.com/mZm7DpIY2L— LakerTom (@LakerTom) December 2, 2025

SECOND BLOCKBUSTER 3-TEAM TRADE TO ELEVATE LAKERS DEFENSE TO TOP-10 Lakers Receive: -Keon Ellis -Devin Carter-Robert Williams III Kings Receive: -Jarred Vanderbilt -2026 First Round Pick Blazers Receive: -Maxi Kleber-Dalton Knecht-2032 second round pick… pic.twitter.com/RriGhfsdin— LakerTom (@LakerTom) December 2, 2025

This will be an interesting debate, not so much the trades proposed but rather how the Lakers incorporate the numbers/results driven philosophy of Mark Walter’s and his inner cabal.

One thing jumps out at me right away. The difference in pace of play between last regular season and playoffs. Teams averaged almost 6 fewer possessions/game in the playoffs vs. the regular season last year (98.5 to 92.6 in the playoffs), shot more (and made fewer) threes, and an uptick in iso ball. Means you need to build from 2 different models.

Players who have a longer leash in the regular season often ride the pine for an entire series because of a perceived weakness in their game. Coaches trust fewer players in high pressure situations and often times themselves can succumb to the elevated level of play. With a lot fewer spots on the team in the NBA than in baseball it means you have a much smaller margin for error when identifying players that fit into and potentially excel in your analytics model for the team.

In short, what can work well for you in the 82 game season often needs to be scrapped, to a large degree, come the playoffs. This presents a unique challenge to true team-building. Because a much-relied on player in the regular season can suddenly vanish in the post-season and if there’s not a player that can fill that gap better on the roster we see a talent and skill drain that, eventually, becomes unsustainable. We saw Redick struggle with that last season when they guys he could rely on for 10-15 mpg suddenly, to him, seemed unplayable.

Chemistry truly shines in the playoffs, as well. We’ve seen that with squads who have been allowed to grow and fail together over a couple of seasons suddenly make huge strides in a short amount of time. Top of that list is clearly the Thunder, but add in teams like the Pacers, Knicks, Bucks, and Celtics who saw a core of 4-5 players grow together and build a foundation of trust that can be the key in high stress moments.

The core illustrated above really ought not include Marcus Smart who likely won’t play much beyond this current deal and currently can’t shoot a pea into the ocean, as Chick used to say. Maybe he turns that around, maybe not, but at 31 having battled multiple leg and back injuries over the last 3 years it seems hard to count on him to be both available and effective. I like him on the team for the duration of his deal (I expect him to opt in after this season as there won’t be more money out there for him) and he might be a potential expiring contract to dangle next trade deadline in 2026-27, but there’s simply no way he’s a major part of the Lakers future. You need a guy like him or the Morris twins or Udonis Haslem, et al to help the younger guys learn and understand the value of professionalism from a vet.

We’ll see. Baseball and basketball analytics have very different impacts on their respective games, not always for the better. With smaller teams, relying on fewer players and the rate of injuries in the NBA I’m curious to see what Mark’s numbers team brings to the table.

FWIW, Only trade I’d make is for Ellis and the Lakers can get in line behind other teams with better assets. Going to take more than Knecht and a pick, I’ll wager. Also not sure they’d move him. Feels like they’re hoping to unburden themselves of LaVine, maybe Sabonis, and hit rebuild. But he’s near the top of my very short list of players I’m even interested in potentially trading for. Would rather go hard for a 3/4 combo guy. I’m fine rolling with Ayton and Jax at the 5 this season.

Aloha Jamie, great post. Nothing at all to disagree with. I would add that Ayton has proven to be be a good rim protector. While his 1.1 blocks per game is good for 23 in the league, the shooting percentage against him at the rim is 9th best in the league. He also gets a lot of strips that count as steals in the paint and not blocks. It proves that you don’t have to block a lot of shots to be a good paint protector.

Agreed. He needs a higher usage rate than either Knecht or Smart, at least until one of them starts making shots with more regularity. He’s below both at this point. Some of that is on him, he’s very deferential.

Honestly, especially the way Redick doles out minutes and roles, I’m not as concerned about the bench as the internet is. We go 8 or 9 deep, depending on how you feel about Max “Layup Master” Kleber or Marcus Smart with LaRavia, Hayes and Gabe. Add in Smart, for arguments sake, and one of Reaves, LeBron or Luka and you’ve got a serviceable bench.

Everything will get tweaked when LeBron finally hangs them up (or moves on which I don’t expect to see). So you play that game when the time comes. No need to think about how you’re going to win Uno when you’re still playing Monopoly. The LeBron question won’t be answered until this summer, at the earliest, so focus on making this team play at the highest possible level and see if you can use Kleber in some kind of cost saving move.

That all sounds pretty fanciful, to me anyhow. Unless we get a true player of impact back I don’t think using the pick for a midgrade role-player is very smart. Since I don’t think we have a snow ball’s chance in hell of getting an impact player back for the deals we’ll likely be willing to move and 1 FRP that’ll convey in 5 years, I think you’re looking at the 2025-26 Lakers folks.