Lakerholics

NBA owners should be as concerned about Mark Walter’s Lakers as MLB owners are about his Dodgers because different sports and rules could still not be enough to stop him from transforming the Lakers into a juggernaut.

Mark Walter transported the Dodgers from bankruptcy to championships by investing in the best talent on and off the field and providing them with the best possible resources to help them win games and become better. Preferring to avoid publicity, Mark believes in a hands-off, resource-rich, relentlessly-innovative ownership model for both the Lakers and Dodgers where he hires experts whom he trusts to run his sports enterprises.

Whereas the Dodgers were more of a complete turnaround project, Walter sees the Lakers as a franchise that’s left championships on the court due to limited resources, conflicted ownership, and front office mismanagement. With Luka extended, the Lakers should be able to legitimately compete for an NBA championship much sooner under Mark Walter’s ownership than the 7 years the Dodgers took to finally win after coming out of bankruptcy.

While experts believe Mark Walter will find the NBA difficult to dominate because its free agency and salary cap rules are much tougher than MLB, Mark sees great similarity and synergy between the Dodgers and Lakers.
While the sports and the rules may be different, the formula to succeed in baseball and basketball are eerily very similar. Fortunately for the Lakers, the sale of the team to Mark Walter will immediately create advantages.

Let’s look closer at four strategic championship advantages Mark Walter gives Lakers that Jeanie Buss couldn’t: (1) Hiring best people, (2) embracing analytics, (3) leveraging luxury taxes, and (4) thinking outside the box.

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1. Hiring Best People

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While Jeanie Buss preferred only to hire people recommended by a small group of associates, Mark Walter believes in doing whatever is necessary to hire the best people because that’s the surest way to succeed in business.

To help him hire the best people for the Lakers, Walter has already brought in Dodgers’ president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and trusted analytics guru Farhan Zaidi to be advisors during the ownership transition.
Friedman and Zaidi are the vision and brains behind the resurrection and transformation of the Dodgers and will immediately become strong voices to help Walter chart the future of the Lakers’ GM and head coach positions.

After buying the Dodgers in 2012, it only took Mark Walter 6 months before he replaced general manager Ned Colletti with a new president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who completely turned the Dodgers around.
Once the Dodgers were out of rebuilding mode, Walter hired Dave Roberts to replace Don Mattingly in 2016. Friedman and Roberts have now been with the Dodgers for nearly a decade, winning 3 of the last 6 World Series.

Less than 30 days after the NBA approved the Lakers’ sale, Mark Walter fired Joey and Jesse Buss, who had voted against the family selling the Lakers, and replaced most of the scouting department with new hires. While Pelinka and Redick were just given extensions, they’re aware Walter eventually fired each of their Dodger counterparts and replaced them with his personal choices, who’re still the team’s current GM and manager.

Pelinka and Redick will not only need to prove to Walter they’re the best people for their jobs but also that they will be excellent ‘team’ fits for his analytics-driven sports conglomerate. That could be a problem for Rob.

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2. Embracing Analytics

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While the Dodgers under Andrew Friedman have fully embraced analytics and supported data-driven decision making, the Lakers under Rob Pelinka have traditionally been late to the party regarding cutting edge technology.

Friedman and Zaidi believe the Lakers’ failure to jump aboard the analytics bandwagon is one of the reasons they haven’t won as many championships as they could have won if professionally financed and properly managed.
That’s why Walter’s top priority once the league approved the Lakers’ sale was to bring Friedman and Zaidi in as transition advisors to insure that the Lakers immediately embraced analytics and data-driven decision making.

Mark Walter is what you could consider to be an analytics true believer. He still understands the value of intuition and hunch when it comes to talent evaluation but he and everyone on his team has fully embraced analytics.
Trading for Luka saved Rob Pelinka’s job with Mark Walter, who became a Lakers’ minority shareholder in July 2021, the same month Rob traded for Westbrook. JJ will be fine since he’s a believer but Rob is gone for sure.

Fully embracing analytics will dramatically change the profile of the type of basketball players the Lakers will be trying to acquire via draft, trades, and free agency going forward. Priority will be legitimate two-way players.
Right now, the Lakers’ needs are a starting 3&D small forward and backup center on defense and high volume 3-point shooters on offense. LA is 24th in attempted threes, 23rd in made threes, and 17th in 3-point percentage.

Mark Walter knows the Lakers need a blockbuster trade to be a legitimate championship contender this season. Look for analytics and data-driven decision making to dominate every Lakers’ critical trade deadline move.

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3. Leveraging Luxury Taxes

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No matter what they would like you to think, there is a direct relationship in MLB and in the NBA between franchises’ ability and willingness to pay mega luxury taxes and their chances of winning world championships.

While the NBA has added harsh competitive penalties to their financial penalties for paying salaries in excess of the first apron, the NBA as a sport with just 5 starters is by far more star dependent than MLB could ever be.
That’s why, despite tougher new rules for going over the first apron, there will always be teams willing to go all-in and pay whatever luxury tax penalties it costs to put together a payroll that can win a championship.

The 2024 NBA Champion Celtics were the most recent example of a team willing to pay outlandish salaries and luxury taxes to win 1 championship, incurring over $200 million in luxury taxes from 2023 through 2026.
Boston’s prior ownership leveraged the 2024 championship into a $6.1 billion value when selling the franchise despite the reality the new owners would have to break up what was an unaffordable championship team.

The grand prize for paying mega luxury taxes for winning 4 championships goes to the Warriors, who won titles in 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2022, while incurring almost $700 million in luxury taxes from 2019 through 2025.
The Warriors’ current Forbes’ franchise valuation is $11.3 billion, which makes them the most valuable franchise in the NBA. The Warriors’ value back in 2113 before high salaries and luxury taxes was only $555 million.

While the Lakers under the Busses never paid mega luxury taxes, the willingness to pay mega luxury taxes has been a long-time staple of Mark Walter’s business philosophy. Expect the Lakers 2.0 to be the Warriors.

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4. Thinking Outside Box

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The most underrated but perhaps most valuable advantage that Mark Walter gives the Lakers that Jeanie Buss could not is the ability to think outside of the box, to address challenges with surprising solutions.

Revealing examples of Dodgers thinking outside the box are everywhere. Their focus on recruiting international players and fans. Their innovative signing of Shohei Ohtani that deferred most of his $700 million contract.
They used advanced metrics to identify undervalued talent and optimize depth, redefined how starting and relief pitchers could be maximized, and created a championship culture through extensive team building rituals.

What Mark Walter has created through Andrew Friedman and Dave Roberts is a model for sustainable business and cultural success that every owner of a professional sports franchise should study and emulate.
Walter fully intends to deploy the same business philosophies, analytics strategies, and powerhouse of resources that catapulted the Dodgers to the top of their league to transform the Los Angeles Lakers into a juggernaut.

While pulling off trades in professional sports is a mix of art and science, I’m looking forward to seeing how the change in ownership from Jeanie Buss to Mark Walter will change what the Lakers do at the trade deadline.
The moves last offseason where the Lakers used free agency to sign three important players under market value without losing any draft capital or roster depth could have been our first glimpse of the Lakers’ future.

The Lakers need a starting 3&D small forward, backup center, and more 3-point takes and makes. Look for the Lakers to focus on younger, less expensive, higher-upside type candidates in any trades they make.

The Lakers’ mega decision last offseason to not offer LeBron James an extension means they could potentially enter free agency next summer with $87 million in cap space to sign their or other team’s free agents.

Right now, only 6 NBA teams are projected to have significant cap space to sign free agents next summer, which means the Lakers would only be competing with 5 other teams, none of whom are legitimate contenders. Reports say Lakers will have $55 million in cap space, Wizards $80 million, Clippers $67 million, Jazz $48 million, Nets $44 million, Bulls $35 million. Lakers could renounce players to increase their cap space to $87 million.

While next summer’s free agency may not include superstars like Jokic or Antetokounmpo, here are impressive lists of the available free agents who are unrestricted and restricted free agents or have player or team options.
Besides their own free agents, possible Lakers targets include centers like Porzingis, Robinson, Williams, and Kessler and 3&D guards and wings like Ellis, Olynyk, Oubre Jr., Thybulle, Grimes, and maybe even Wiggins.

While the NBA has tougher limits on free agency than MLB, the Lakers would be smart to to emulate the Dodgers and prioritize building via free agency versus trades since you do not give up players or draft capital.
Last offseason was the perfect example of how adding Deandre Ayton, Marcus Smart, and Jake LaRavia as free agents without having to give up matching salary or draft capital allowed the Lakers to expand their depth.

The Lakers have smartly positioned themselves to have $87 million in cap space next summer to build a legitimate championship roster around Luka Doncic by signing their own free agents and other teams’ free agents.

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Re-signing Their Own Free Agents

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While the names and numbers could change due to a midseason trade, the Lakers currently have 10 players whom they’ll probably keep and 4 players on expiring contracts whom they’ll probably let walk away in free agency.

The 10 players the Lakers will probably keep include 6 players who are under contract and 4 free agents. Luka Doncic, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jake LaRavia, Dalton Knecht, Bronny James, and Adou Thiero have contracts.
The 4 players who are unrestricted free agents are Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton, and Marcus Smart. They need to be re-signed with raises. Here’s a proposed Lakers 2026–27 salary cap for next summer.

LAKERS PROJECTED 2026-27 CAP SPACE

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On the left, the chart shows the 10 players the Lakers plan to keep, their current or last salary, proposed raise, and projected new salary. On the right, the chart shows the 4 free agents whom they’re going to renounce.
The Lakers project to have $123.5 million in existing player contracts plus $43.6 million in projected raises for a total payroll of $166.9 million for the 10 players the Lakers plan to have on their payroll going into the summer.

The Lakers do have a major decision to make with respect to Deandre Ayton, who has done an excellent job at both ends to help the Lakers win but isn’t the ideal rim protector and floor spacer that Luka needs to win.
There will be several quality starting as well as backup centers in next summer’s free agency who can both protect the rim and space the floor who could replace, backup, or play next to Ayton in a two-bigs lineup.

The Lakers should spend half of their $87 million in open cap space to give raises of $20 million to Austin, $12 million to Deandre, $7 million to Rui, and $4 million to Marcus for a total of $43 million for their own free agents.

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Signing Other Team’s Free Agents

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The Lakers plan is to allow LeBron and 3 other free agents walk away for nothing to create an $87 million free agent opportunity where they use half to sign their own top free agents and half to sign other teams’ free agents.

We saw last section how the Lakers used half of their $87 million in cap space or $43 million to give raises and extensions to 4 of their own free agents: Austin Reaves, Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, and Marcus Smart.
The other half of the $87 million or $43 million is to be used to sign free agents from other teams, including a starting point-of-attack wing, backup shot blocking center, and possibly better fitting center to replace Ayton.

The following chart lists Lakers’ top 10 free agent targets for next summer, their last salary and projected free agent price. The Lakers have $43 million that could be used to add 2 to 4 free agents to the Lakers current 10 players.
They could add Andrew Wiggins and Mitchell Robinson. Or Keon Ellis and Kristaps Porzingis. Or Keon Ellis, Walker Kessler, and Robert Williams. Or even Walker Kessler, Robert Williams, Kelly Oubre, and Quentin Grimes.

LAKERS PROJECTED 2026 FREE AGENT TARGETS

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The Lakers’ major challenge in building out this roster around Luka Doncic is what to do about center. While Deandre Ayton has been great, the Lakers need better rim protection and floor spacing from their center rotation.
Could Kristaps Porzingis or Walker Kessler be better starting options for the Lakers than Deandre Ayton? Or the answer could be to build a deeper, more diverse front court rotation by adding Wiggins, Olynyk, and Williams.

With $87 million cap space, Lakers could build a legitimate championship team by re-signing their own free agents Reaves, Ayton, Hachimura, and Smart and signing other teams’ free agents Wiggins, Olynyk, and Williams.

Analytics is the elephant in the room no NBA reporters are talking about that transformed the Los Angeles Dodgers into a championship franchise and will be at the heart of the modernization of the Los Angeles Lakers.

Mark Walter’s commitment to analytics and incorporation of data-driven decision making in his sports business empire have been the driving forces behind his success with the Dodgers and their domination of baseball. Walter believes he can apply the same sports business principles and systems that made the Dodgers world champions 3 times in the last 6 years to transform the Lakers into an NBA dynasty similar to the Dodgers.

The Lakers have been historically criticized for underinvesting in analytics infrastructure and for failing to leverage advanced metrics, predictive modeling, and smart simulation tools that could improve player selection.
That’ll change as billionaire owner Mark Walter and his transition team complete the takeover of the Lakers. While Jeanie Buss will remain as the team’s governor, Mark Walter and his team will be making the decisions.

The Lakers did a great job offseason in adding depth via free agency. As a result, the Lakers now have 10 players who are keepers — Doncic, James, Reaves, Ayton, Hachimura, Smart, LaRavia, Hayes, Thiero, and James, Jr.
That leaves 4 players and $37.5M as trading chips — Vanderbilt, Vincent, Kleber, and Knecht — plus 1 first round, 1 second round, and 4 pick swaps.
If needed, Hachimura and his $18.2M could be LA’s fifth trading chip.

The data says Lakers need better point-of-attack defense, rim protection, and 3-point shooting to contend for a title. Let’s take a closer look at how the Lakers should fill these needs and whom they should target if needed.

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1. BETTER POA DEFENSE

Andrew Wiggins, SF, 6′ 7″, 210 lbs, 30-yrs, $28.2M, 4-yrs, 1.0/1.0 in 32.9 mpg
Dillon Brooks, SF, 6′ 7″, 225 lbs, 29-yrs, $21.1M, 2-yrs, 0.2/1.8 in 30.9 mpg
Keon Ellis, SG, 6′ 4″, 175lbs, 25-yrs, $2.3M, 1-yr, 0.4/1.3 in 17.6 mpg

The data says the Lakers desperately need better point-of-attack defense from their guards and forwards. They currently rank #16 with a team defensive rating at 114.0 and #20 in team steals at just 8.0 per game.

While Marcus Smart’s given the Lakers an elite point-of-attack defender at shooting guard, the Lakers are still missing a bigger wing point-of-attack defender like Andrew Wiggins or Dillon Brooks to start at small forward.
Unfortunately, both Wiggins and Brooks and their teams have gotten off to good starts so there’s no guarantee either will be available for a reasonable price at the deadline. A trade for one of them might require Hachimura.

While the Heat’s or Suns’ situations may change by the deadline, the smart move for the Lakers would be to prioritize trading for the King’s Keon Ellis who’s 4 to 5 years younger and $18M to $25M per year less expensive.
While Ellis isn’t the starting small forward the Lakers need, he projects to be as good a point-of-attack defender as Wiggins or Smart and would only cost Knecht and a first round pick, allowing the LA to keep its depth.

Despite a reputation as a ‘win now’ team, the Lakers fully understand what is happening with the speed, athleticism, and physicality of the NBA game. OKC showed everyone that youth, aggressiveness, power, and depth rule.
If the Lakers are going to use their one tradable first round draft pick, then they’re going to use it on a young promising 24-year old 3&D guard rather than on a 29 to 30-year old veteran small forward on huge contracts.

Lakers should target the King’s shooting guard Keon Ellis to bolster the team’s point-of-attack defense as well as give them another backcourt player who can shoot the three-ball with elite accuracy and volume.

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2. BETTER RIM PROTECTION

Robert Williams III, CE, 6′ 9″, 248 lbs, 26-yrs, $13.2M, 1-yr, 1.3/0.7 in 13.7 mpg
Daniel Gafford, CE, 6′ 10″, 265 lbs, 247-yrs, $14.3M, 4-yrs, 1.5/0.9 in 23.5 mpg
Jonathan Isaac, PF, 6′ 10″, 230 lbs, 28-yrs, $15.0M, 4-yrs, 0.5/0.4 in 10.0 mpg

When it comes to rim protection, the data says the Lakers are average at best and need better shot blocking to win a championship. Their 114.0 defensive rating is #16 and their 3.4 blocks per game #24 out of 30 teams.

While Deandre Ayton has been terrific as the Lakers’ starting center and Jaxson Hayes excellent as their backup center, neither has been able to dominate defensively and anchor the team’s defense as a rim protector.
Ayton has averaged 0.9 blocks and 0.8 steals per game in 29.6 minutes while Hayes has averaged 0.5 blocks and 0.4 steals per game in 17.3 minutes.
Lakers could use an elite shot blocker and backup center for Ayton.

The Lakers’ top three candidates to be their 3rd center are the Blazers’ Robert Williams, the Mavericks’ Daniel Gafford, and the Magic’s Jonathan Isaac. Each brings something special to the table in terms of skillsets.
Robert Williams is the most athletic and an elite defender but with a devastating injury history. Gafford is a proven match with Luka Doncic. Isaac, like Williams, is uber-athletic and a great one-on-one defender.

With Ayton and Hayes playing well and James available to play small ball five, the Lakers can afford to gamble on trading for Robert Williams III, who in limited minutes would give them a world-class rim protector.
When healthy, Williams would give the Lakers a wild card center who can put a lid on the rim when needed and give the defense a high flying shot blocker who can intimidate and deter opponents from attacking the rim.

The Lakers should target the Blazers’ Robert Williams III to add elite defensive athleticism and physicality to the Lakers center rotation. Williams would give them the banger they need against bigger teams.

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3. BETTER 3-POINT SHOOTING

LeBron James, PF, 6′ 8″, 250 lbs, 40-yrs, $52.6M, 1-yr, 2.1/5.7 for 37.6% (LYR)
Rui Hachimura, PF, 6′ 8″, 230 lbs, 27-yrs, $18.2M, 1-yr, 1.9/4.0 for 48.5%
Keon Ellis, SG, 6′ 4″, 175 lbs, 25-yrs, $2.3M, 1-yr, 1.4/3.4 for 41.5%

From an offensive standpoint, the data says the Lakers must take and make more 3-point shots to become a legitimate championship contender. Right now, the 15-5 Lakers ranked #26 in 3PA, #30 in 3PM, and #24 in 3P%.

The good news is the Lakers 3-point shooting has finally started to improve, jumping to 38.8% since Lebron returned 4 games ago. Part of the problem is the returning players shooting as well as they did last year.
Last year, the Lakers finished the season #15 in 3PM, #19 in 3PA, and #14 in 3P% at 36.6%. Right now, the Lakers only volume 3-point shooters have been Doncic at 11.5 3PA per game and Reaves at 7.6 3PA per game.

So far this season, the Lakers have made 205 3-pointers while opponents have made 247 for a -6.9 points per game. But in the last 4 games, Lakers 3-point shooting differential has been reduced to just -2.1 points per game.
As the season progresses, the Lakers will see their threes taken and made increase considerably, with much of the increase coming from LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, and Keon Ellis if they successfully trade for him.

A combination of positive regression and healthy shooters should solve the Lakers’ current 3-point shooting problem. The Lakers have already established solid margins in made free throws and points in the paint.
They just need to make sure that the elite defensive players they add can also contribute offensively so that they cannot be played off the court like Jarred Vanderbilt. Lakers must add legitimate 3&D players like Keon Ellis.

The Lakers have the ability to finish in the top-10 in 3-point shooting. To accomplish that, they would need to average around 40 attempts per game, shoot around 37.5%, and successfully make around 14 threes per game.