Analytics is the elephant in the room no NBA reporters are talking about that transformed the Los Angeles Dodgers into a championship franchise and will be at the heart of the modernization of the Los Angeles Lakers.
Mark Walter’s commitment to analytics and incorporation of data-driven decision making in his sports business empire have been the driving forces behind his success with the Dodgers and their domination of baseball. Walter believes he can apply the same sports business principles and systems that made the Dodgers world champions 3 times in the last 6 years to transform the Lakers into an NBA dynasty similar to the Dodgers.
The Lakers have been historically criticized for underinvesting in analytics infrastructure and for failing to leverage advanced metrics, predictive modeling, and smart simulation tools that could improve player selection.
That’ll change as billionaire owner Mark Walter and his transition team complete the takeover of the Lakers. While Jeanie Buss will remain as the team’s governor, Mark Walter and his team will be making the decisions.
The Lakers did a great job offseason in adding depth via free agency. As a result, the Lakers now have 10 players who are keepers — Doncic, James, Reaves, Ayton, Hachimura, Smart, LaRavia, Hayes, Thiero, and James, Jr.
That leaves 4 players and $37.5M as trading chips — Vanderbilt, Vincent, Kleber, and Knecht — plus 1 first round, 1 second round, and 4 pick swaps.
If needed, Hachimura and his $18.2M could be LA’s fifth trading chip.
The data says Lakers need better point-of-attack defense, rim protection, and 3-point shooting to contend for a title. Let’s take a closer look at how the Lakers should fill these needs and whom they should target if needed.
1. BETTER POA DEFENSE
Andrew Wiggins, SF, 6′ 7″, 210 lbs, 30-yrs, $28.2M, 4-yrs, 1.0/1.0 in 32.9 mpg
Dillon Brooks, SF, 6′ 7″, 225 lbs, 29-yrs, $21.1M, 2-yrs, 0.2/1.8 in 30.9 mpg
Keon Ellis, SG, 6′ 4″, 175lbs, 25-yrs, $2.3M, 1-yr, 0.4/1.3 in 17.6 mpg
The data says the Lakers desperately need better point-of-attack defense from their guards and forwards. They currently rank #16 with a team defensive rating at 114.0 and #20 in team steals at just 8.0 per game.
While Marcus Smart’s given the Lakers an elite point-of-attack defender at shooting guard, the Lakers are still missing a bigger wing point-of-attack defender like Andrew Wiggins or Dillon Brooks to start at small forward.
Unfortunately, both Wiggins and Brooks and their teams have gotten off to good starts so there’s no guarantee either will be available for a reasonable price at the deadline. A trade for one of them might require Hachimura.
While the Heat’s or Suns’ situations may change by the deadline, the smart move for the Lakers would be to prioritize trading for the King’s Keon Ellis who’s 4 to 5 years younger and $18M to $25M per year less expensive.
While Ellis isn’t the starting small forward the Lakers need, he projects to be as good a point-of-attack defender as Wiggins or Smart and would only cost Knecht and a first round pick, allowing the LA to keep its depth.
Despite a reputation as a ‘win now’ team, the Lakers fully understand what is happening with the speed, athleticism, and physicality of the NBA game. OKC showed everyone that youth, aggressiveness, power, and depth rule.
If the Lakers are going to use their one tradable first round draft pick, then they’re going to use it on a young promising 24-year old 3&D guard rather than on a 29 to 30-year old veteran small forward on huge contracts.
Lakers should target the King’s shooting guard Keon Ellis to bolster the team’s point-of-attack defense as well as give them another backcourt player who can shoot the three-ball with elite accuracy and volume.
2. BETTER RIM PROTECTION
Robert Williams III, CE, 6′ 9″, 248 lbs, 26-yrs, $13.2M, 1-yr, 1.3/0.7 in 13.7 mpg
Daniel Gafford, CE, 6′ 10″, 265 lbs, 247-yrs, $14.3M, 4-yrs, 1.5/0.9 in 23.5 mpg
Jonathan Isaac, PF, 6′ 10″, 230 lbs, 28-yrs, $15.0M, 4-yrs, 0.5/0.4 in 10.0 mpg
When it comes to rim protection, the data says the Lakers are average at best and need better shot blocking to win a championship. Their 114.0 defensive rating is #16 and their 3.4 blocks per game #24 out of 30 teams.
While Deandre Ayton has been terrific as the Lakers’ starting center and Jaxson Hayes excellent as their backup center, neither has been able to dominate defensively and anchor the team’s defense as a rim protector.
Ayton has averaged 0.9 blocks and 0.8 steals per game in 29.6 minutes while Hayes has averaged 0.5 blocks and 0.4 steals per game in 17.3 minutes.
Lakers could use an elite shot blocker and backup center for Ayton.
The Lakers’ top three candidates to be their 3rd center are the Blazers’ Robert Williams, the Mavericks’ Daniel Gafford, and the Magic’s Jonathan Isaac. Each brings something special to the table in terms of skillsets.
Robert Williams is the most athletic and an elite defender but with a devastating injury history. Gafford is a proven match with Luka Doncic. Isaac, like Williams, is uber-athletic and a great one-on-one defender.
With Ayton and Hayes playing well and James available to play small ball five, the Lakers can afford to gamble on trading for Robert Williams III, who in limited minutes would give them a world-class rim protector.
When healthy, Williams would give the Lakers a wild card center who can put a lid on the rim when needed and give the defense a high flying shot blocker who can intimidate and deter opponents from attacking the rim.
The Lakers should target the Blazers’ Robert Williams III to add elite defensive athleticism and physicality to the Lakers center rotation. Williams would give them the banger they need against bigger teams.
3. BETTER 3-POINT SHOOTING
LeBron James, PF, 6′ 8″, 250 lbs, 40-yrs, $52.6M, 1-yr, 2.1/5.7 for 37.6% (LYR)
Rui Hachimura, PF, 6′ 8″, 230 lbs, 27-yrs, $18.2M, 1-yr, 1.9/4.0 for 48.5%
Keon Ellis, SG, 6′ 4″, 175 lbs, 25-yrs, $2.3M, 1-yr, 1.4/3.4 for 41.5%
From an offensive standpoint, the data says the Lakers must take and make more 3-point shots to become a legitimate championship contender. Right now, the 15-5 Lakers ranked #26 in 3PA, #30 in 3PM, and #24 in 3P%.
The good news is the Lakers 3-point shooting has finally started to improve, jumping to 38.8% since Lebron returned 4 games ago. Part of the problem is the returning players shooting as well as they did last year.
Last year, the Lakers finished the season #15 in 3PM, #19 in 3PA, and #14 in 3P% at 36.6%. Right now, the Lakers only volume 3-point shooters have been Doncic at 11.5 3PA per game and Reaves at 7.6 3PA per game.
So far this season, the Lakers have made 205 3-pointers while opponents have made 247 for a -6.9 points per game. But in the last 4 games, Lakers 3-point shooting differential has been reduced to just -2.1 points per game.
As the season progresses, the Lakers will see their threes taken and made increase considerably, with much of the increase coming from LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, and Keon Ellis if they successfully trade for him.
A combination of positive regression and healthy shooters should solve the Lakers’ current 3-point shooting problem. The Lakers have already established solid margins in made free throws and points in the paint.
They just need to make sure that the elite defensive players they add can also contribute offensively so that they cannot be played off the court like Jarred Vanderbilt. Lakers must add legitimate 3&D players like Keon Ellis.
The Lakers have the ability to finish in the top-10 in 3-point shooting. To accomplish that, they would need to average around 40 attempts per game, shoot around 37.5%, and successfully make around 14 threes per game.
Salary. Cap.
I love how much effort Tom puts into these roster machinations. It’s doubly fun when none of them even come close to fruition.
I think you brought up that the Lakers can not trade their 2026 First round pick. Robert Williams is just too much of a long term physical problem to take on. Has only played in 33% of games in his career (injury of CD?)…He shoots a high field goal percentage…but in today’s game of 5 out…he would be a total non-threat on offense being unable to spread the offense. Kleber has been more reliable healthwise and seems to have a good flow of the Laker offense having played with Luka for years. Would love to get Keon Ellis, and would celebrate vaporizing Jared Vanderbilt off the Laker roster….!!!! But unlikely to happen…The Kings would want far more than the unavailable 2026 first round pick to offset taking on the negative contributing Vanderbilt and his negative contract.
This will be an interesting debate, not so much the trades proposed but rather how the Lakers incorporate the numbers/results driven philosophy of Mark Walter’s and his inner cabal.
One thing jumps out at me right away. The difference in pace of play between last regular season and playoffs. Teams averaged almost 6 fewer possessions/game in the playoffs vs. the regular season last year (98.5 to 92.6 in the playoffs), shot more (and made fewer) threes, and an uptick in iso ball. Means you need to build from 2 different models.
Players who have a longer leash in the regular season often ride the pine for an entire series because of a perceived weakness in their game. Coaches trust fewer players in high pressure situations and often times themselves can succumb to the elevated level of play. With a lot fewer spots on the team in the NBA than in baseball it means you have a much smaller margin for error when identifying players that fit into and potentially excel in your analytics model for the team.
In short, what can work well for you in the 82 game season often needs to be scrapped, to a large degree, come the playoffs. This presents a unique challenge to true team-building. Because a much-relied on player in the regular season can suddenly vanish in the post-season and if there’s not a player that can fill that gap better on the roster we see a talent and skill drain that, eventually, becomes unsustainable. We saw Redick struggle with that last season when they guys he could rely on for 10-15 mpg suddenly, to him, seemed unplayable.
Chemistry truly shines in the playoffs, as well. We’ve seen that with squads who have been allowed to grow and fail together over a couple of seasons suddenly make huge strides in a short amount of time. Top of that list is clearly the Thunder, but add in teams like the Pacers, Knicks, Bucks, and Celtics who saw a core of 4-5 players grow together and build a foundation of trust that can be the key in high stress moments.
The core illustrated above really ought not include Marcus Smart who likely won’t play much beyond this current deal and currently can’t shoot a pea into the ocean, as Chick used to say. Maybe he turns that around, maybe not, but at 31 having battled multiple leg and back injuries over the last 3 years it seems hard to count on him to be both available and effective. I like him on the team for the duration of his deal (I expect him to opt in after this season as there won’t be more money out there for him) and he might be a potential expiring contract to dangle next trade deadline in 2026-27, but there’s simply no way he’s a major part of the Lakers future. You need a guy like him or the Morris twins or Udonis Haslem, et al to help the younger guys learn and understand the value of professionalism from a vet.
We’ll see. Baseball and basketball analytics have very different impacts on their respective games, not always for the better. With smaller teams, relying on fewer players and the rate of injuries in the NBA I’m curious to see what Mark’s numbers team brings to the table.
FWIW, Only trade I’d make is for Ellis and the Lakers can get in line behind other teams with better assets. Going to take more than Knecht and a pick, I’ll wager. Also not sure they’d move him. Feels like they’re hoping to unburden themselves of LaVine, maybe Sabonis, and hit rebuild. But he’s near the top of my very short list of players I’m even interested in potentially trading for. Would rather go hard for a 3/4 combo guy. I’m fine rolling with Ayton and Jax at the 5 this season.
Neither Wiggins or Brooks are on the trade block. The Heat sniffed around Wiggins in June but later declared they will not trade him. And Why should they? Besides being in the thick of the playoff race in the east, he has a large contract that they would need to pull off a trade for a superstar if one becomes available. . As for Brooks, he has never been on the trade block. The Suns are in the hunt for the playoffs and I see no reason why they would trade him. And if they did we do not have the assets it would take to trade for him. Ellis could be available. He is one of the rare young players that is an unrestricted free agent. If they feel he can’t be resigned they could move him. But the Kings would really have to believe in Dalton to make a trade work.
In trade proposals (fantasy basketball)..involving 3 or more teams, in addition to listing what each team acquires, it would be great to see what each team gives up in that proposed trade. I find it interesting to look at trades months and years later to see what each team actually received in the trade…such as who was drafted with the draft picks (granted, each team may have chosen a different player, but I find it interesting)…