Lakerholics

Watching how exciting and entertaining these NBA playoffs have been without LeBron James and the Lakers has me worried that we may finally see LeBron James make the decision that next season would be his last.

I hope I’m wrong but learning LeBron’s injury would have sidelined him for the rest of the playoffs had the Lakers been able to comeback against the Minnesota Timberwolves might have been Father Time’s coup de gras. As both LeBron and Steph have found out, the NBA is undergoing a major changing of the guard. Playoff interest may have waned without LeBron and the Lakers but the games and series have been simply sensational.

Don’t think for a minute that LeBron doesn’t see what’s happening and understand how it impacts his legacy He’s going to meet with his family and see what they want before he makes any decisions about next season.
I would not at all be surprised if LeBron decides that next season will be his last. Knowing his injury would have prevented him from playing even if the Lakers won is the kind of body blow that could convince James it was time.

The big question is what should the Lakers do this summer if next season is indeed going to be LeBron James last season in the NBA? Do the Lakers go all-in to try and win a final championship in LeBron’ James’ final season?
The Lakers know they need starting and backup centers and an elite point-of-attack defensive guard to pair with Luka Doncic. This is now Doncic’s team but does Rob Pelinka make moves to give LeBron a final shot?

Let’s look at what the Lakers’ realistic options and risks are should they want to go all-in and optimize their chances of winning the championship next season should LeBron James decide it will be his last in the NBA.

---

REPLACING LEBRON JAMES SUDDENLY BECOMES URGENT

…

Frankly, finding a second superstar to pair with Luka Doncic in the event LeBron James announces next season will be his last in the NBA should be a higher priority for the Lakers than winning a championship next season.

Realistically, the Lakers already have LeBron James’ perfect replacement in Luka Doncic. Should next season be LeBron’s last, however, the Lakers will need to find another superstar to replace James as Doncic’s co-superstar.
The Lakers would be smart to combine their need for a championship caliber starting center and their desire to find a second superstar to pair with Luka Doncic into an active pursuit of an Anthony Davis replacement.

By focusing on pursuing a superstar center to pair with Luka Doncic the Lakers can achieve two major goals with one single move. They can get a championship caliber starting center and a second superstar for Luka.
Remembering that this is now Luka Doncic’s team, Pelinka is likely going to be looking for young centers rather veteran centers with the goal of finding an elite young center who’s timeline is a perfect match for Luka Doncic.

Top candidates for the Lakers to pursue as their potential starting center of the future in my opinion include the Grizzlies Jaren Jackson Jr., the Pacers Myles Turner, the Celtics’ Kristaps Porzingis, and the Jazz’ Walker Kessler.
While none of these centers are by definition legitimate superstars, they’re each difference makers in their roles and each have the critical skillsets both offensively and defensively that are essential to modern NBA centers.

Should LeBron James decide next season is going to be his last in the NBA, the Lakers have some big decisions to make, including how do they acquire a second superstar to pair with Luka Doncic and whom do they pursue?

---

THE LAKERS’ PERFECT ‘ANTHONY DAVIS’ REPLACEMENT

..

The Lakers’ perfect ‘Anthony Davis’ replacement should be the Grizzlies’ 25-year old power forward/center Jaren Jackson Jr., an elite two-way player who can protect the rim and stretch the floor with his 3-point shooting.

The concept of the Lakers replacing 40-year old LeBron James with 26-year old Luka Doncic and 32-year old Anthony Davis with 25-year old Jaren Jackson Jr. is about as perfect a turn-back-the-clock strategy as possible.
Replacing the elder James and Davis, who are a combined 72-years old together, with the younger Doncic and Jackson, who are only a combined 51-years old, would represent the Lakers becoming 21 years younger.

The similarities between James and Doncic as generational superstar scorers and playmakers and Davis and Jackson as generational modern superstar bigs who can protect the rim and stretch the floor are eerie.
Strategically, the Lakers replaced LeBron James with a clone who’s 14-years younger. If they can repeat that by replacing Anthony Davis with a clone who’s 7-years younger, they will have created a superstar time machine.

Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are a mess. The season ended in an embarrassing first round sweep. Superstar Ja Morant is still a problem. The Grizzlies fired their coach and replaced him with one who wants Ja to take fewer shots.
Serious questions have arisen whether Morant, Dane, and Jackson were the right trio for Memphis to invest in. Trading one or two of their big three could be a reality as the Grizzlies look for a new direction for the future.

Step in Rob Pelinka and the Lakers who make a mega offer to the Grizzlies for Jaren Jackson Jr. that includes 3 elite young talents and the equivalent of 3 post-LeBron first round picks. That’s an offer Memphis cannot refuse.

---

THE JAREN JACKSON TRADE MEMPHIS CANNOT REFUSE

…

The Lakers offer the Grizzlies a package they cannot turn down of Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves, Dalton Knecht, 1 unprotected first round pick, and 2 unprotected first round swaps for Jaren Jackson, Jr. and Jay Huff.

Strategically, the Lakers need to trade for a player who can both fill their immediate need for a starting center and also give them a former DPOY who could elevate their defense to legitimate championship caliber.
The Lakers’ generous offer of 3 elite young players and the equivalent of 3 post-LeBron James first round draft picks for centers Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jay Huff should be too valuable for the Memphis Grizzlies to turn down.

It’s eerie how Luka Doncic’s and LeBron James’ overall games, scoring, and playmaking skillsets are similar just as Jaren Jackson Jr’s and Anthony Davis’ abilities to protect the rim and space the floor are comparable.
Luka/JJJJ would represent a pairing the Lakers know worked to win a championship in 2020 and could have resulting in additional titles had the Lakers decided to keep that core together rather than breaking it up.

There’s a strong argument to be made that Jaren Jackson Jr. is the perfect center whom the Lakers should target this summer regardless of whether next season is going to be LeBron James’ last as an NBA player or not.
Frankly, Triple J is the perfect two-way modern center the Lakers need to win a championship and the ideal defense-first frontcourt superstar they need to pair with an offense-first backcourt superstar like Luka Doncic.

Bottom line, the Los Angeles Lakers should make the Memphis Grizzlies an offer for Jaren Jackson Jr. they cannot refuse. Jaren Jackson Jr. is the perfect candidate to pair with Luka Doncic in the next great Lakers dynasty.

The Lakers’ surprise first round exit should ratchet up the pressure on Rob Pelinka to fix the broken roster that doomed L.A. in the playoffs and put together a legitimate championship caliber center rotation this summer.

By rescinding the Mark Williams trade, the Lakers made a clear decision to prioritize the future over the present, forcing the current team to live with a centerless roster while stockpiling tradable assets to use in the offseason. That means Rob Pelinka needs not only to trade for a championship caliber starting center this summer but also acquire a trustworthy backup center who, at minimum, can protect the rim and rebound when the starter rests.

While the Lakers top priority this offseason is fixing their center rotation, they also need to upgrade their wing defense and always like to have draft capital available in case another superstar suddenly comes on the market.
Their current draft capital includes their 2031 first round pick and 1–4 of their 2027 first round pick plus 2026, 2028, 2030, and 2032 pick swaps. There’s also a chance LeBron might take a pay cut to open up the NT MLE.

The bad news is the Lakers have more holes to fill than assets to fill them but the good news is it looks like there will be no shortage of quality starting and backup centers who could be acquired for the right price.
Right now, the Lakers will probably have to trade for their new starting center but could use part of the possible NT MLE to sign a quality backup center, who needs to be good enough to make the Lakers’ rotation.

So what constitutes a championship caliber center rotation for the Lakers, why should their trade strategy be best player and not best deal, and could Walker Kessler and Kelly Olynyk be their best potential center rotation?

---

WHAT IS A ‘CHAMPIONSHIP CALIBER’ CENTER ROTATION?

…

Pelinka already said the Lakers’ top priorities for starting center are ability to protect the rim and be a vertical lob threat but the center rotation as a whole should also include the ability to space the floor and defend in space.

The Lakers not only need a starting center but also a trustworthy backup who together can provide elite rim protection and mobile switchability on defense and vertical lob threat and 3-point floor spacing on offense.
Since there is no center out there who can fill all four of those roles, the Lakers need to build a rotation with a starting and backup center who together have the needed size and offensive and defensive skillsets.

In retrospect, it’s obvious Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office never viewed finding a championship caliber starting center as a critical roster need because they always had superstar Anthony Davis to play the five.
Trading Anthony Davis and watching Jaxson Hayes get played off the court in the playoffs have truly left the Lakers centerless at a point in time where the rest of the league seems to be returning to an age where size rules.

There is no question the Lakers’ greatest roster need this summer is a championship caliber starting center who both can protect the rim and be a lethal vertical lob threat for new superstar point guard Luka Doncic.
What the Lakers need to do is replace what they lost on defense and offense when they traded Anthony Davis, which probably means adding at least two players with the size and skills to play the center position.

A championship caliber center rotation needs an elite young two-way starting center with upside to anchor the defense and give the offense a vertical lob threat and an experienced veteran center to back him up.

---

WHY LAKERS NEED ‘BEST PLAYER’ MORE THAN ‘BEST DEAL’

…

The good news is Pelinka knows the team needs to dramatically upgrade its center rotation both in ability and size. The bad news is Rob as usual will be looking to make the ‘best deal’ rather than acquire the ‘best two centers.’

There’s a time in the life of every organization when they’re facing a critical decision point they absolutely must get right, even if it ends up costing them a more than they hoped to pay. Now is that time for the Lakers.
After failing for four years straight to give their head coach a viable center rotation, Pelinka needs to identify the best targets as Laker starting and backup centers and pay whatever is needed to acquire the right players.

Frankly, for the Lakers to be a legitimate championship caliber team, the need a championship caliber starting center. The Lakers’ starting center should be the third or fourth best player on the team. He’s that important.
Strategically, the Lakers simply must replace Anthony Davis with a center rotation that includes a championship caliber two-way starting center who can anchor the defense and be a lethal vertical lob threat for the offense.

Fortunately, there are multiple elite starting center options for the Lakers to pursue, including the Pacers’ Myles Turner, Heat’s Bam Adebayo, Grizzlies’ Jaren Jackson, Jr., Nets’ Nic Claxton, and Jazz’ Walker Kessler.
There are also some excellent backup center option that could become available, including Kelly Olynyk, Steven Adams, Deandre Ayton, Nikola Vucevic, Isaiah Stewart, Jonas Valanciunas, and Robert Williams III.

The Lakers need to identify the best starting and backup centers to complement and fit with Luka Doncic’s style of play and timeline and the team’s future cap situation and pay whatever they have to land them.

---

COULD KESSLER & OLYNYK BE BEST CENTER ROTATION?

…

Two targets who would fill all the Lakers center needs both on offense and defense would Jazz’ Walker Kessler, an elite rim protector and rebounder, and Pelicans’ center Kelly Olynyk, an elite 3-point shooter and playmaker.

Walker Kessler and Kelly Olynyk would give the Lakers an elite, affordable two-man center rotation that perfectly complements Luka Doncic’s skills as a player and fits his timeline and championship window as a superstar.
The 2-man center rotation of Kessler and Olynyk would cover all four major center skillsets, including rim protection and guarding on the perimeter on defense and stretching the floor and being a vertical lob threat on offense.

Kessler and Olynyk are also both on affordable contracts. Kessler is on the last year of his rookie contract and earns $4.9 million per year while Olynyk is in the last year of a 2-year deal and will make $13.4 million next season.
Compare those salaries to the $19.9, $23.4, $25.4, or $37.1 million per year the Lakers would be paying if they traded for Myles Turner, Jaren Jackson, Nic Claxton, or Bam Adebayo. Lakers get both Kessler and Olynyk for less.

The combination of Walker Kessler’s rim protection, size and physicality, rookie contract and salary, and double-double points and rebounds make him the obvious ‘best player’ option as the Lakers’ new starting center.
The challenge will be getting Danny Ainge to trade Walker Kessler to the Lakers for a package that includes Dalton Knecht, unprotected 2031 first round pick, 2027 first round pick if 1–4, and 2028 first round pick swap.

The 23-year old Kessler and 34-year old Olynyk, even if overpaid, would give the Lakers a deep and diverse championship caliber center rotation with great size and a lethal repertoire of offensive and defensive skills.

The basketball gods have not yet given up on the Los Angeles Lakers. They’ve just raised the bar on the kind of heroics that are going to be required for the Lakers to pull off a miraculous championship run.

Right now, the Lakers’ only path to this year’s championship is to pull off a rare 1–3 comeback by beating the Timberwolves 3 straight playoff games, something that’s only been done 13 times and only once by the Lakers. However, the Lakers have two things going for them that give them a remote chance to beat the Wolves 3 straight games: LeBron, who pulled off a 1–3 comeback in the NBA Finals and home court in 2 of the 3 games left.

So while the basketball gods did not intervene to prevent the zebras from stealing Game 4 from the Lakers, they did leave the purple and gold with a challenging-but-not-impossible path to survive the first round of playoffs.
The key game is obviously Game 5 in Los Angeles on Wednesday night. The Lakers desperately need a wire-to-wire big win to restore their confidence and keep the series alive. Win that game, go 2–3, and everything changes.

The Lakers are then within one game of tying the series and regaining home court advantage. Yes, they do have to win Game 6 on Friday night in Minnesota but if they do, they suddenly turn the tables on the Wolves.
The series then returns to Los Angeles on Sunday tied 3–3 with the Lakers once again the favorite to move on. That’s the dramatic comeback ending the basketball gods are demanding this year from the Los Angeles Lakers.

So the good news is the Lakers still have a chance to win a championship but they will need to play much better on offense and defense than they played in the first four games. So let’s look at what the Lakers need to do.

---

1. PLAY SMALL BALL

There is no question the Lakers best strategy in this series is to play small ball. JJ Redick probably should have benched Jaxson Hayes earlier as the spacing DFS provides makes the half court offense so much better.

2. SLOW GAME DOWN

Getting into a run-and-gun high scoring game against the Wolves is not going to be to the Lakers’ advantage. No live ball turnovers or leaking out to fast break. End every defensive possession with a rebound.

3. CUT DOWN ON FOULS

The Wolves are shooting 2 more free throws per game than the Lakers, a reversal over the regular season when L.A. averaged 2 more free throws per game than Minnesota. L.A. needs to defend with feet, not hands.

4. PLAY MORE PLAYERS

JJ’s big gamble on playing his Death Lineup the entire second half would have paid off big had it worked and they still have Wednesday to recover. Going forward, the Lakers need to play more players to avoid injuries.

5. SHOOT MORE THREES

The Lakers biggest differential so far in the Timberwolves series has been their +5.1 ppg in 3-point shooting differential. There is no other area where the Lakers can potentially improve their performance than threes.

Down 1 game to 2 to the Wolves, the Lakers are already being forced to play their second ‘Must Win’ game in just their fourth playoff game tomorrow. Win and Lakers are back on track. Lose and everybody’s legacy crumbles.

Will Luka Doncic be over his stomach illness and ready to play Sunday? Will LeBron James be able to repeat his terrific performance after playing heavy minutes and carrying a heavy load during Friday night’s tough loss? What changes will the Lakers’ JJ Redick and the Timberwolves Chris Finch have for their opponents on Sunday? Will the Lakers bench Jaxson Hayes and go small ball or will the Wolves bench Gobert in favor of Naz Reid?

If Luka and LeBron can somehow will the Lakers to victory on Sunday, LA would not only tie the series at 2 games apiece but also regain home court advantage and be headed back to LA for 2 of the 3 games left in the series.
A win on Sunday would leave the Lakers perfectly positioned to make a deep playoff run, playing series vs. the Timberwolves, Rockets, Thunder, and likely Celtics while avoiding the Clippers, Nuggets, and Warriors.

But lose on Sunday and suddenly what looked like a possible Cinderella winning-the-big-prize ending for LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Rob Pelinka, JJ Redick, and the Lakers becomes an embarrassing first round exit.
But give credit to Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves. They may be young and lack experience but they’ve also been the ones who’ve come through when the game was on the line, not the Lakers veterans.

Sunday’s game is a ‘Must Win’ game to save the Los Angeles Lakers’ season and the legacies of their superstars. Here are 5 changes JJ Redick can make to help win the Lakers win Game 4 and spark a deep championship run.

---

1. PLAY SMALL BALL

The time’s come for JJ Redick to fully embrace small ball and analytics and start Dorian Finney-Smith and Gabe Vincent in place of Jaxson Hayes and Rui Hachimura to surround Luka, LeBron, and Austin with more shooting.

In 3 playoff games, the Lakers current starting lineup of Doncic, Reaves, Hachimura, James, and Hayes has an offensive rating of 87.8, defensive rating of 136.6, and net rating of -48.8. It’s LA’s 7th worst 5-man lineup.
In contrast, the 5-man lineup of Doncic, Vincent, Reaves, Finney-Smith, and James has an offensive rating of 186.7, a defensive rating of 75.0, and a net rating of +111.7, It’s the Lakers’ top rated 5-man lineup in the playoffs.

The Lakers cannot afford to play from behind in Game 4 like they did in Game 3. Playing from behind just takes too much out of a team. Getting off to a great start in Game 4 will be critical for the Lakers chances to win.

---

2. SLOW GAME DOWN

The Lakers cannot beat the Wolves if they continue to making live ball turnovers that lead to easy fast break points. The Lakers 19 turnovers resulted in 28 Timberwolves points and was the main reason for losing.

Instead of leaking out trying to get out and run, the Lakers need to focus on securing the possession ending rebound and taking good care of the ball in transition so as not to cough up those live ball turnovers the are killers.
The Lakers need to understand that low-scoring games are to their benefit as the older and less athletic team whereas high-scoring games are likely more beneficial to the younger and more athletic Timberwolves players.

The Lakers want to run when the opportunity presents itself, which will usually be off a live ball turnover they create. Their first priority should be to slow the game down to avoid needless turnovers and control the pace.

---

3. CUT DOWN ON FOULS

The Timberwolves are not only winning the physicality battle but have also prevented the Lakers from getting their usual advantage via made free throws. So far, the Lakers have shot 56 free throws to the Wolves 55.

The Wolves are counting on the refs not being able to call enough fouls to deter them if they are overly physical. The Lakers must be careful to keep their hands in like against SGA to cut down on free throws the Wolves get.
In a critical Game 4, the Lakers need every edge they can get. During the regular season, they received 23.2 FTA per game while their opponents only received 20.5 FTA per game, a differential of 2.7 points per game.

The Lakers want to slow the game down without junking it up and avoiding sending their opponents to the free throw line has be be a major objective during Game 4. The Lakers also need to make their free throws in Game 4.

---

4. STOP TARGETING RUDY

Hopefully, Luka will be fully recovered from his illness and ready to go. Rather than pounding the ball looking to make Rudy look foolish, Luka needs to focus on getting into the offense and sharing the ball earlier.

Game 4 is a game where the Lakers will need the best of both of their superstars if they are going to win and regain home court advantage. Playing Luka off the court actually hurts the Lakers in the long run.
We need the Luka and LeBron to each post 30/10/10 games and Austin to bounce back with a 20/5/5 game. The focus by Luka and LeBron has to be to score as well as get their teammates going with easy baskets off assists.

This is the Lakers’ second ‘Must Win’ game out of four games and, win or lose, Game 5 will likely be an even more important ‘Must Win’ game. Lakers don’t have time to be fooling around trying to embarrass Rudy Gobert.

---

5. SHOOT MORE THREES

The Lakers need to take and make more threes. At least 50 attempts per game. It’s the only way they can counter their lack of front court positional size compared to the Wolves’ Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid center rotation

The Lakers won the 3-point differential Friday night, making 17 of 40 vs. Wolves 13 of 36 threes. Unfortunately, they used so much energy coming back that they were unable to match the Wolves’ threes down the stretch.
Tomorrow, the Lakers need to surround Luka, LeBron, and Austin with 3-point shooters and focus on slowing the game down, running smart plays, freely sharing the ball, and finding and making wide-open 3-point shots.

The Lakers recorded 17 makes out of 40 takes from deep on Friday night. This Sunday, look for them to make 20 threes out of 50 attempts as they win Game 4 wire-to-wire to setup a return to Los Angeles for a killer Game 5.

When the dust has settled, JJ Redick and the Lakers may finally realize their shocking Game 1 blowout loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves was exactly what they needed to get them playing championship basketball.

The true test of character for players and teams is how do you react when you get punched in the face in the playoffs and dominated by a team you were projected to easily defeat in the first round in 5 or 6 games at most? The Timberwolves dominated the Lakers the same way L.A. dominated OKC. Just like the Thunder could not stop the Lakers’ barrage of threes, the Lakers were helpless as the Timberwolves rained threes upon them.

Ironically, after losing Game 1 of their 2020 first round playoff series vs. the Trailblazers, the Lakers bounced back with 4-straight wins to beat Portland 4–1 in a gentlemen’s sweep on their way to their 17th NBA championship. That’s exactly how the Lakers should respond to the Timberwolves Game 1 of this year’s first round series. They need to slap the insurgent Wolves hard and put them back in their proper place with 4 straight blowout wins.

Right now, the Lakers are the NBA’s version of a an old joke with a stale punch line. The Wolves were so dominant that they now have become the betting favorites to defeat the Lakers in their first round playoff series.
The Lakers were the only home playoff team to lose home court advantage on opening night. If they lose tonight, they would have to win 4 out of the next 5 games with 3 of them being in Minnesota. Lakers must win tonight.

We find out tonight if JJ Redick and the Los Angeles Lakers are for real. Two games into the playoffs and Lakers face a legitimate ‘Must Win’ game. That’s what parity and the changing of the guard have done to the NBA.