Lakerholics

Having decided to wait until midseason before making additional roster moves, what is the Lakers’ current roster’s ceiling and floor assuming they upgrade their starting small forward and backup center by the deadline?

By definition, a team’s ceiling happens when everything that could go right actually goes right. In the NBA, that means key players not only were fully healthy through the playoffs but many also enjoyed career best seasons.
By definition, a team’s floor happens when everything that could go wrong actually goes wrong. In the NBA, that means critical players were not only injured during the season but many also endured career worst seasons.

What makes projecting a ceiling and floor for next season’s Lakers squad so difficult is the team has made a decision to wait until midseason to address their glaring needs for a starting small forward and quality backup center.
Waiting until the trade deadline puts additional ‘pressure on the Lakers to trade for the ‘right players.’ If the Lakers traded during the offseason, they would still have a chance to correct any mistakes before the trade deadline.

Further complicating the situation, Jokic or Giannis could be available next summer if they do not sign extensions and the Lakers right now don’t even have matching salaries to legally trade for a superstar making $60 million.
That means the Lakers must convert most of their $40 million in expiring contracts to players with 2-year deals before the deadline so they can match salaries and trade for Jokic or Giannis if they’re available in summer 2026.

To reach their ceiling for the season and win the NBA Championship, the Lakers need to trade for two elite defenders like Andrew Wiggins and Robert Williams the sooner the better even if it costs a first round pick.

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LAKERS’ CURRENT CEILING IS ‘NBA CHAMPIONSHIP’

If the Lakers trade for a legitimate elite POA starting small forward and a quality rim protecting defensive backup center before the trade deadline, their ceiling for 2025–26 season would be the 2026 NBA Championship.

The Lakers desperately need an elite starting small forward like Andrew Wiggins, Dillon Brooks, or Nickeil Alexander-Walker and a quality backup center like Robert Williams III, Mitchell Robinson, or Jonathan Isaac.
While the Lakers would like to trade for Wiggins and Williams without giving up picks, they can still offer a first round pick swap for the former and second round pick for the later and still have 3 picks next summer.

Adding a pair of elite defensive players like Andrew Wiggins and Robert Williams would elevate the Lakers to legitimate championship contenders and make them among the favorites to win their 18th NBA championship.
Surrounding offense-first Big Three of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Austin Reaves with elite defenders like Marcus Smart, De’Andre Ayton, Andrew Wiggins, and Robert Williams dramatically upgrades the Lakers’ defense.

The Lakers would still need the help of the basketball gods to keep superstars Luka Doncic and LeBron James and key role players like Marcus Smart, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Gabe Vincent fully healthy and injury free.
They would also need career best redemption seasons from returnees Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, and Jaxson Hayes and new additions Adou Thiero, Jake LaRavia, De’Andre Ayton, and Marcus Smart.

If the Lakers can pull off a blockbuster midseason trade for an elite starting small forward and a quality rim protecting backup center, they can reach their ceiling for the 2025–26 season by winning the NBA Championship.

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LAKERS’ CURRENT FLOOR IS ‘PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT’

If the Lakers fail to trade for a legitimate elite point-of-attack starting small forward and quality rim protecting defensive backup center before the deadline, their floor for the season would then be the Play-In Tournament.

To become a legitimate championship contender, the Lakers need a massive injection of positional size and length and defensive skill and physicality at the starting small forward and backup center positions.
Moving forward with Rui Hachimura as the defensive starting small forward and Jaxson Hayes as the defensive backup center just does not make sense. Lakers must upgrade both positions to avoid the Play-In.

Nor is it guaranteed that De’Andre Ayton will be a better defender than Jaxson Hayes was as last year’s starter. Other than defensive rebounding, Hayes’ blocks and steals per minute played were better than Ayton’s.
If the only change the Lakers are planning for their starting lineup is replacing Jaxson Hayes with De’Andre Ayton, they may find the offense improved but the starting lineup defense may still be 28th in the league.

The Lakers are obviously trying to avoid giving up their one tradable first round pick to upgrade their current roster so they can offer three first round picks on draft day next summer in a mega trade for a superstar.
The problem is there are at least 8 teams in the West who can dominate the current Lakers’ roster with their size and physicality: the Thunder, Nuggets, Rockets, Mavericks, Timberwolves, Blazers, Clippers, and Warriors.

If they fail to pull off a blockbuster trade for an elite starting small forward and quality backup center to dramatically upgrade their front court defense, the Lakers’ floor for the season will be the Play-In Tournament.

After reportedly deciding to wait until midseason to see how the team does before trading for a elite defensive starting small forward, the big question facing JJ Redick and the Lakers now is who’s going to be their fifth starter?

With Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Austin Reaves, and De’Andre Ayton projected to start, the competition for the fifth starter seems to be between three players: Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, and Jarred Vanderbilt. Smart is probably the best two-way player but smallest among the three, Hachimura the best offensive player with excellent positional size, and Vanderbilt the best defensive player also with excellent positional size.

Last season, the Lakers were a solid 11th in offensive rating, a mediocre 17th in defensive rating, and middle-of-the-pack 14th in net rating. They were almost a top-10 team on offense but poor defense pulled them down.
The storyline of strong offense held back by mediocre defense gets worse when looking at the Lakers’ starters, who were 7th in offense, 25th in defense, and 12th in net rating. Better offense but even poorer defense.

Veteran center De’Andre Ayton starting in place of youngster Jaxson Hayes will hopefully give the Lakers a dramatic boost in their ability to protect the rim and switch on the perimeter as well as better defensive rebounding.
But going into the season without a legitimate 3&D starting small forward or rim protecting backup center puts great pressure on the Lakers’ starting lineup and rotation to overachieve until help arrives at the trade deadline.

The reality is with a shredded and driven Luka Doncic, a healthy legacy seeking LeBron James, and a hungry redemption powered Austin Reaves, the Lakers don’t need any more offense. What they need is DEFENSE!

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Why Marcus Smart?

Marcus Smart, 6′ 3″, 220 lbs, 31 yrs old, 2-yr min contract w/player option
9.0/2.1/3.2/0.3/1.1 in 20.0 mpg shooting 39.3/34.8/76.1%

While he may no longer be the DPOY he was with the Celtics, Marcus Smart is the only one of the three candidates to be the Lakers’ fifth starter who has a proven history of being an elite all-league perimeter defender.

If Smart comes into camp healthy and in condition to play 30 minutes per game rather than the injury-riddled 20 minutes per game he played with the Grizzlies and Wizards last season, he should be the Lakers’ fifth starter.
More than anything, it’s the championship defensive intangibles Marcus would bring to the starting lineup that make him the obvious best option as the team’s fifth starter. His is the best defense, heart, and BBIQ of the three.

When the Lakers have played great defense, it’s been because of LeBron James’ ability to communicate and choreograph the team defensively. Smart will finally give James the defensive partner that Davis used to be.
De’Andre Ayton’s improved rim protection and help and Luka Doncic’s improved motivation and conditioning along with Marcus Smart’s BBIQ and charismatic leadership should transform the Lakers’ starting defense.

While Smart is the Lakers best option as a fifth starter, there are concerns because at 6′ 3,” he makes the Lakers smaller when the league is trending bigger and our weakness is our lack of a quality backup defensive center. Other concerns include Rui’s willingness and effectiveness to come off the bench and the reality that both he and Vando are very likely to be traded. Marcus could be the only one of the three left after the trade deadline.

While it will force them to play smaller, starting defense-first Marcus Smart as the team’s fifth starter is the surest way to transform the Lakers’ starting lineup from an offense-first squad to one that can both score and defend.

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Why NOT Rui Hachimura?

Rui Hachimura, 6′ 8″, 230 lbs, 27yrs old, 1-yr $18M expiring contract
13.1/5.0/1.4/0.4/0.8 in 31.7 mpg shooting 50.9/41.3/77.0%

Let’s start by noting Rui Hachimura had a better individual defensive rating last regular season than teammates Luka Doncic, Jarred Vanderbilt, Max Christie, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, and Dalton Knecht.

So the reason Rui Hachimura is going to be replaced as the Lakers’ fifth starter is not because he was the worst defender of the starters. It’s because the team needs a defensive infusion and he’s the logical one to be replaced. The Lakers are not going to ask one of their Big Three of Doncic, James, and Reaves to come off the bench and we already know Hachimura is not going to start at center instead of Ayton. Hence, Rui goes to the bench.

How Rui handles the move from starter to the bench will have a huge impact on the Lakers. The other major reason for moving Rui to the bench is the Lakers’ reserves finished 28 out of 30 in offensive rating last season.
If Rui can play starter minutes off the bench and average 18 points per game, it could transform the Lakers ability to score points when starters rest. Bench scoring was one of the Lakers’ greatest weakness last season.

The other benefit of Hachimura coming off the bench is being able to matchup against other power forwards. As a starter, Rui has always had to defend small forwards so that LeBron could defend slower power forwards.
Coming off the bench, Rui can now backup LeBron at power forward, both allowing LeBron to reduce his minutes to stay healthy and fresh for the playoffs and giving the reserves greater positional size and scoring.

While Rui is not the best fit to start, he should have a great opportunity to help the Lakers get off to a hot start in the west by coming off the bench as LeBron James’ backup at power forward and possible 6MOY candidate.

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Why NOT Jarred Vanderbilt?

Jarred Vanderbilt, 6′ 8″, 214 lbs, 26yrs old, 3-yr $37M contract
4.1/5.1/1.1/0.3/1.0 in 16.1 mpg shooting 48.8/28.1/55.6%

While the Lakers once hoped Jarred Vanderbilt would develop a good enough offensive game to prevent being played off the court, injuries and lack of swagger and confidence have severely hindered that progress

NBA players can legitimately play any position that they can defend. At 6′ 8″ with a 7′ 1″ wingspan, Vanderbilt is not only capable of defending guards
but would also have a distinct positional size advantage at shooting guard.
There is no better NBA starting foursome than Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Austin Reaves, and De’Andre Ayton that could optimize Jarred Vanderbilt’s defensive strengths while easily minimizing his offensive weaknesses.

Recent reports indicate the Lakers have lost patience with Vanderbilt and are not expecting him to be part of the team’s regular rotation. He’ll have to perform at a very high level in camp to be considered for a rotation role.
While downplaying expectations, the Lakers desperately need defense in the starting lineup and coming off the bench. Frankly, it’s irresponsible for them not to find a viable role for Vanderbilt, the team’s best defender.

Basically, Vanderbilt is one of five players along with Vincent, Hachimura, Kleber, and Knecht, whom the Lakers are probably going to move on from this season in a major consolidation trade right before the trade deadline.
Needless to say, the Lakers would be thrilled if Vanderbilt had a great camp and showed he could be a viable option as a 5th starter. The Lakers would like nothing more than giving Vanderbilt a starting audition for the NBA.

In the end, Jarred Vanderbilt’s time with the Lakers is coming to a close. Despite a desperate need for defense, the Lakers are preparing to move on from Jarred Vanderbilt and should not consider him as their fifth starter.

The Lakers might be smart to address their defensive matchup concerns versus teams who start high-scoring backcourts or twin tower front courts by giving 7 players starting opportunities in 5 different starting lineups.

There’s no question JJ Redick would be taking a foolish and unnecessary risk by embracing multiple matchup starting lineups but it could also be a great fit for this Lakers roster that solves many of their defensive issues. Besides a base starting lineup, all NBA teams already have specialized lineups to use against opponents who play small ball, have multiple elite backcourt scorers, two bruising bigs, or both. They just don’t start them.

Most NBA teams prefer to have the same 5 players as their starting lineup.
Wouldn’t it be smarter for them to expand the starters by allowing the best two defenders off the bench to start whenever the matchups call for it?
The Lakers should designate 7 starters and utilize them to create 5 lineups: a base starting lineup plus 4 custom lineups for small ball, better backcourt defense, front court defense, or both backcourt and front court defense.

For the purposes of illustration, I have presumed the Lakers do out and trade Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, Maxi Kleber, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Dalton Knecht for 2 elite defenders Andrew Wiggins and Robert Williams.
Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Andrew Wiggins, LeBron James, and De’Andre Ayton would be core starters. Normally, Marcus Smart and Robert Williams would be 6th and 7th man. On the Lakers, they also get an occasional start.

The goal of the matchup starting lineup strategy is twofold. It’s designed to improve starting lineup defensive matchups and accelerate development of additional starters. If your base starting lineup works, you just go with it.
But if you’re playing against multiple high-powered backcourt shooters, you might want to start Marcus Smart instead of Austin Reaves. Against a team with two bigs, you might want Robert Williams instead of Andrew Wiggins,

Bottom line, adding Smart and Williams as matchup starters would greatly improve Lakers’ defense. Following are the proposed Lakers’ base starting lineup along with four customized defensive matchup starting lineups:

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Don’t look now but Rob Pelinka, the Lakers’ much maligned president of basketball operations, may have pulled off the best offseason of his front office career and positioned the purple and gold for a championship run.

Under immense pressure from soon-to-retire LeBron James, newly traded superstar Luka Doncic, and brand new owner Mark Walter, Rob Pelinka managed to sign four impact players without giving up any draft capital. Rob moved from #55 to #36 to draft defensive forward Adou Thiero and signed free agent starting center De’Andre Ayton, promising backup small forward Jake LaRavia, and defense-first backup point guard Marcus Smart.

The above depth chart clearly shows how Pelinka has transformed the Lakers’ heavily one-way player offense-first roster into a roster with better offense-defense balance and more two-way players than one-way players.
Projected starters are in the top row, backups in second row, and reserves in third row. First column shows point guards, second shooting guards, third small forwards, fourth power forwards, and fifth column centers.

After Smart clears waivers and signs, the Lakers will have 14 active players. Right now, Jarred Vanderbilt would likely be the starting small forward for more defense with Rui Hachimura coming off the bench for more offense.
Studying the depth chart, however, it’s obvious that all the Lakers need to be a legitimate title contender is an elite 3&D starting small forward, which they could add before the season or wait until midseason trade deadline.

Bottom line, Rob Pelinka has the Lakers perfectly positioned not only to compete for a championship this season but also to replace LeBron James with a second superstar via trade or free agency in summer 2026 or 2027.

Trade for Starting Small Forward Before Season Or Before Deadline?

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The Lakers under Rob Pelinka have traditionally favored making trades in midseason before the trade deadline, embracing the strategy that this is when player prices will be the lowest and the best deals can be made.

Most smart NBA front offices strive to make major changes in the offseason rather than in midseason to give their coaching staff and players a chance to play and practice together and figure out how to play during preseason.
Bringing in new starters or key rotation players midseason is challenging because NBA teams simply do not have the opportunities to practice due to the regular season schedule and have less than half a season of games left.

While it would be great if the Lakers did not make a trade and Vanderbilt managed to stay healthy, play like an all-pro on defense, and simply do the little team-first things on offense, that still might not be good enough.
Scrambling at the trade deadline to find a deal Rob believes is a winner for a key starting small forward seems like a repeat of previous disappointing offseasons. The Lakers would be smarter to trade now rather than later.

Trading now for the ‘right’ starting small forward would not only give the new starter a chance to bond with his teammates in camp and preseason but would also give the front office a second midseason bite at the apple.
If necessary, the Lakers could even include a 2028 first round pick swap as part of an Andrew Wiggins package while still being able to trade their 2026, 2031, and 2033 first round picks for a superstar on draft day 2026.

Rob Pelinka needs to understand the Lakers are now just one or two impact players away from becoming a legitimate championship contender for next season. Trade for the final championship pieces before the season starts.

Replace LeBron Via Blockbuster Trade or Free Agent Signing?

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Hoovering over every move Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office makes is the emerging reality that this is almost certainly LeBron James’ final season as a Los Angeles Laker and very possibly his last year in the NBA.

Rumors have started that #23 will announce before the season that he will retire as a Los Angeles Laker at the end of his 23rd season in the NBA. This will also be strong motivation for the Luka Lakers to go all-in next season.
This is the storybook ending the Lakers and LeBron were choreographing all offseason. It’s why the Lakers never offered an extension and why Klutch Sports never asked for an extension. Lakers and LeBron in sync.

Just as he can make a consolidation before the start or during the season, Rob Pelinka has positioned the Lakers with two opportunities to replace LeBron James with a new superstar in summer of 2026 or summer 2027.
The strategy Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office has put together to replace LeBron James is designed to enable them to trade for a superstar the summer of 2026 or sign a free agent superstar the summer of 2027.

The Lakers’ strategy makes perfect sense. No max contract superstars are projected to be free agents next summer so the Lakers will focus on using their three first round picks to trade for a superstar to replace LeBron.
While it’s early, the Lakers top two superstar targets to replace LeBron James are Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, both of whom have player options for 2027–28 and could be in play the summer of 2027.

Look for Lakers to continue to hold onto their first round draft picks as the most likely pathway to acquiring a superstar big to replace LeBron James is via a blockbuster 2027 offseason trade rather than free agency signing.