FROM ABOVE ARTICLE:

Why the Lakers still can’t catch the NBA’s best offense

The Lakers are entering what might be their final prove-it-or-lose-it stretch of the season. For months, they have mostly been described as average. Dominant against bad teams, but with fatal flaws against the best and not a team anyone puts in the real contender tier.

The next two weeks give the Lakers a chance to change that perception.

Seven of the Lakers’ next eleven games come against teams widely considered contenders, starting tonight in Denver. There they face Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets at Ball Arena, where Denver is always tough to beat. But Luka Dončić is 3–0 against the Nuggets as a Laker and had his first statement game in purple and gold in the Mile High City last February.

The standings say these teams are nearly identical. The Lakers (37–24) and Nuggets (38–24) are separated by just half a game. Yet the perception around the two teams and their superstars could hardly be more different.

Why is that? Is there a real gap between these teams, and if so, where does it actually show up?

To explore that question, I decided to take a slightly different approach for today’s preview.

Today’s highlights:

1-Two teams, very similar profiles

2-What separates the Nuggets’ elite offense from the Lakers’ good offense?

3-If it is that simple, why aren’t the Lakers doing it?

4-The most underrated trait of contenders

5-Lessons for the summer and Lakers’ team building around Dončić

1-Two teams, very similar profiles

Record is not the only area where these two teams are close. Both are led by unique offensive geniuses who can dominate a game either by scoring or passing and are the head of the snake of the NBA’s best and second-best half-court offenses. Both are top-10 offensive teams but bottom-ten defenses. Both teams’ second-best scorers are combo guards who have had great seasons but have mostly been underrated throughout their careers.

But if we dig deeper into the advanced stats from Cleaning the Glass, we can see a gap much bigger than the standings suggest:

Nuggets: 38–24, 1st on offense at 121.4 points per 100 possessions, 22nd on defense at 117.4, +3.9 point differential

Lakers: 37–24, 10th on offense at 117.7, 21st on defense at 117.0, +0.7

Lakers and Nuggets offensive and defensive rankings to date (data source: Cleaning the Glass)

The first thing that jumps out when looking at the comparison is that, as hopeless as the Lakers’ defense has often looked, it still currently ranks one spot above the Nuggets. There is, of course, additional context, especially around injuries that have hit both teams hard this season. Denver’s best defenders, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Peyton Watson, have all missed a lot of games.

The other, more significant takeaway is that the main difference between these two teams lies in the level of excellence on offense. The Nuggets have been elite, the best offense in the NBA, while the Lakers have flirted with top-five territory but have not been consistent enough to break into it and currently sit 10th in the rankings. Two of the Lakers’ top offensive options, Austin Reaves and LeBron James, have also missed significant chunks of the season, but even with all three Lakers superstars healthy, the offense has struggled to reach a truly elite level.

2-What separates the Nuggets’ elite offense from the Lakers’ good offense?

Digging deeper into the offensive numbers reveals even more similarities between the two teams. As mentioned, Denver ranks first in half-court offensive rating, while the Lakers are second. The Nuggets are also first in the most important of the Four Factors, shooting, or effective field goal percentage (eFG%). The Lakers rank second. The Lakers are second best in free-throw rate, while the Nuggets are fourth. Neither team is great at crashing the glass, ranking 23rd and 24th in offensive rebounding rate.

Some of it is around the margins. The Nuggets are slightly more efficient in transition and on putbacks. But the most significant difference comes down to one area that has been problematic for the Lakers all season: turnovers.

If you look at the Four Factors ranking table, you can see the major difference. The Nuggets are elite with a 13.1% turnover rate, ranking third, while the Lakers, at 15.1%, are among the worst, ranking 23rd. If we translate the turnover percentages into more tangible numbers: per 100 possessions, the Lakers commit almost two more turnovers per game, which means the Nuggets get 2.6 more field goal attempts and only 0.7 fewer free throw attempts per 100 possessions.

If you take into account that these two teams rank number one (Nuggets) and number two (Lakers) in the NBA in points per shot at 1.17 and 1.16, the math becomes simple. If the Lakers had two more shot attempts instead of turning the ball over, they would generate an additional 2.3 points per 100 possessions, which would move them from the 10th-best offense to third.

3–If it is that simple, why aren’t the Lakers doing it?

Looking at the numbers, it would be easy for data geeks like me to say to JJ Redick: please make your team simply turn the ball over less and the problem is fixed. Unfortunately, basketball is not that simple, and you cannot simply push the Four Factors up and down like buttons in a cockpit.

So how come the Lakers are turning the ball over at a much higher rate than their conference rival?

The first place to look is their offensive engines, the two players who generate most of the offense and consequently turn the ball over the most. Dončić leads the NBA at 4.0 turnovers per game, while Jokić is fifth at 3.7. There is a slight difference there, but advanced data shows Jokić actually has a higher turnover rate, turning the ball over on 13.6% of his possessions compared to Dončić at 12.2%. The latter simply has the ball more, which explains the difference in per-game numbers.

Dončić has faced criticism for his shot selection, efficiency, and style of play. However, he is not the Lakers’ main problem when it comes to turnovers, despite some high-turnover games. The Lakers turn the ball over at a much lower rate when he is on the floor, and if there is one advantage of a heliocentric style of play, it is keeping the ball in the hands of your best player. Throughout his tenure in Dallas, the Mavericks were consistently among the top five in turnover rate.

source: Cleaning the Glass

The real difference in turnover rate appears when we look at the next players in the usage hierarchy, the secondary stars on both teams. Jamal Murray is having a career season, scoring 25.7 points per game on elite efficiency while also averaging a career-high 7.3 assists per game. Even more impressively, at a 30.7% usage rate he has only a 9.8% turnover rate, which is among the best in the league for high-usage scorers.

On the other end, the Lakers’ two other creators, Austin Reaves at 14.6% and LeBron James at 13.6%, have much higher turnover rates than Murray. Reaves’ rate is even higher than Dončić’s and Jokić’s. Reaves’ turnover rate has been relatively high throughout his career, and it is one thing that separates him from other high-end secondary scorers like Murray or Kyrie Irving. James has similarly been on the higher end of high-usage players when it comes to turnover rate for most of his career. Some other Lakers role players, Marcus Smart, Deandre Ayton, Jake LaRavia, Jarred Vanderbilt and even newly acquired Luke Kennard, have also been among the players with higher turnover rates when compared to other players in similar roles. All rank in the bottom third percentile (dark blue in the table) in turnover rate for their roles.

Source: Cleaning the Glass

But while some of it comes down to individual skill and play style, I don’t think all, or even the majority in this case, comes down to that. I don’t think Reaves is that much more turnover-prone than Murray, as the numbers would suggest. Again, there is more context.

4-The most underrated trait of contenders

If you ask me, besides the obvious brilliance of Jokić, what the secret ingredient is that makes the Nuggets’ offense so special, I would offer the same answer I did when I analyzed the teams that made it to the second round during last year’s playoffs.

The Most Underrated Trait of a Contender? Familiarity

Iztok Franko
May 5, 2025

The Most Underrated Trait of a Contender? Familiarity

With Luka Dončić and the Lakers officially out of the playoffs (you can find my first reflections here), and the Mavericks eliminated long before that, it’s time to pivot to offseason mode.

Continuity, familiarity, and compatibility are the key differences between a Lakers offense that relies on individual talent but often lacks balance and flow, and the well-oiled Nuggets machine. As of today, the Nuggets’ two stars have played 15,856 total minutes together in the regular season and playoffs, the equivalent of more than 193 full 48-minute games. On top of that, offensively they are probably the ultimate fit when it comes to a 1–2 punch: a center and a guard who can both score and pass, offering very different ways to punish mismatches, either with size (Jokić) or speed (Murray). The duo forms the best two-man game in the NBA and can run their dribble handoffs, pick-and-rolls, and other actions almost blindfolded by now.

If I circle back to turnovers, that means the actions, and consequently the reads and passes, are much more predictable and simplified for both. Another important part is that most of the actions and passes involve the two best players. For example, 101 of Jokić’s assists have gone to Murray, while Peyton Watson is second on the list of Jokić’s recipients with 68. Similarly, most of Murray’s assists this season, 127, have gone to Jokić, with Watson second at 52. Pass combinations paint the same picture. Jokić has passed 1,095 times to Murray, while Murray has made 1,057 passes to his partner. The next most frequent combo, Watson to Murray, is at 582. For comparison, most of Dončić’s assists, 89, have gone to Ayton, 59 to James, and 52 to Rui Hachimura. James has 52 assists to Ayton, 44 to Marcus Smart, and 41 to Jake LaRavia. Reaves’ top targets are Ayton with 48, Hachimura with 31, and Hayes with 24.

5-Lessons for the summer and Lakers’ team building around Dončić

The upcoming summer, when the Lakers are planning a full-scale rebuild of the team around Dončić, is going to be fascinating, and we will see what direction the Lakers’ brain trust chooses.

One recently reported option is a Dallas 2.0 version of the 2024 Finals team. That model features a potent but not top-five offense built around two guards, surrounded by athleticism and defense to create a more balanced team capable of defending.

Then there is the 2019–20 version of the Rick Carlisle Mavericks, mostly forgotten by now, that stormed the NBA as the league’s best offense. It is a model much closer to the Nuggets, built around elite offense and just enough defense. For the latter, the Lakers will need what the 2019–20 Mavericks had, and what the Nuggets have: a recognizable system and complementary stars. The Mavericks were ahead of their time with Porziņģis as a stretch big and with shooting and spacing around Dončić that made him nearly impossible to stop. Despite the somewhat sour ending later on, Dončić and Porziņģis were the two players involved in most two-man actions and passes, with everyone else playing off them.

The current Lakers don’t have that, at least not consistently enough. Tonight’s game in Denver will offer a real-time look at the difference. Two teams with similar profiles and two elite offensive engines, but one system that runs with far fewer mistakes.

TERRIFIC ARTICLE, IZTOK. THANK YOU.Loved your analysis of the differences between the Nuggets and Lakers offenses and how turnovers and continuity are the difference makers right now.I love how the Lakers are leaning into their strength by trying to turn the offense into a… https://t.co/D9CqwKgtGP— LakerTom (@LakerTom) March 5, 2026

FROM ABOVE ARTICLE:

The Lakers turned their weakness into a strength against the Pelicans

The last thing anyone would call this iteration of the Lakers is a good defensive team.

They have a defensive rating of 116 on the season, placing them 22nd in the NBA. Progress in this department has been minimal at best.

But against the Pelicans, the Lakers’ defense came up big.

Trailing by one entering the fourth and with their offense struggling, the Lakers needed their defense to help them flip this game.

The Lakers did just that as the Pelicans went 7-20 from the field in the final period and LA got the 110-101 victory. But it took a coalition of the willing for Los Angeles to shut down New Orleans.

With 7:24 left in the game, the Lakers were down seven and defensive stops were a necessity.

Zion Williams went barreling into the paint, more than willing to take on Jaxson Hayes. However, the Laker big not only held his ground but rejected the shot attempt, leading to free throws for LeBron James on the other end.

A couple of possessions later, Hayes once again got the better of Zion, drawing a charge. Then Hayes forced an airball from Murphy, leading to a 3-pointer from Austin Reaves to regain the lead.

The defensive showcase wasn’t over, though.

Hayes kept on successfully contesting Pelicans shots as Dončić and Reaves cleaned up the glass and Marcus Smart did everything but work the concession stand in the fourth quarter. He grabbed loose balls, forced turnovers and found a streaking LeBron for another highlight play for the King.

“I thought Smart was incredible tonight,” Redick said postgame. “Him and Jackson [Hayes] in the second half, when we got him back in the game defensively as well, really they helped us win the game. They changed the game.”

When it was all said and done, the Lakers went on a 14-0 run and entered clutch time with a one-possession lead.

They continued to execute on defense, forcing Zion to miss back-to-back shots. And, after a dazzling corner 3-pointer by Smart, who made the basket despite being tripped by Williams, it was clear that LA wasn’t going to lose this game.

It wasn’t a pretty game, and the Pelicans are far from a contender, but the Lakers using their defense to grind out a March win is an indicator that they may be beginning to progress in that department at the perfect time.

“I think we’ve made some strides defensively,” LeBron said. “We didn’t play much at all in zone tonight. We started the game out with it. We kind of went away from it. I thought the man-to-man defense was pretty good. Jaxson [Hayes] and Marcus [Smart] were great on that end and then everybody else trickled in as well.”

Things won’t get any easier for the purple and gold.

LA is set to play six of its next eight games against winning teams. With how tight the Western Conference standings are, their performance in these games could make or break their season.

But they now have another example they can point to which demonstrates that, when the will is there to shut down a team, they can do it.

“Nights like this can change the trajectory for teams and players,” Smart said. “Hopefully, this win and tonight in the way, the fashion that we won it, kicks our confidence up. And, we can keep this alive and going because the way we played tonight and the way we played over the last two games, it’s something that we know we’re capable of.“

Marcus Smart says the toughest team sets the rules.In the 4th quarter against the Pelicans, the Lakers finally did.More on Smart’s impact and the Lakers winning their 3rd straight heading into a big test in Denver👇https://t.co/8Lc8mZkZ6M pic.twitter.com/3F8qNyZXpr— Iztok Franko (@iztok_franko) March 4, 2026

Marcus Smart (10 PTS, 7 AST, 4 STL, 3 BLK) discusses the key plays he made down the stretch to help the #Lakers defeat the Pelicans, 110-101 to win their third straight! @LakersReporter pic.twitter.com/0oQOQUnd7y— Spectrum SportsNet (@SpectrumSN) March 4, 2026

LeBron James reflects on win, Marcus Smart’s impact https://t.co/oGYbNQb4CF— TalkBasket (@TalkBasket) March 4, 2026

Marcus Smart, you should’ve been a Laker a longgggggggg time ago DAWG. pic.twitter.com/QLkd8Aif4T— ²³ (@SpeakContext) March 4, 2026

Final Stats 📊Luka: 27 pts, 10 reb, 7 astLeBron: 21 pts, 7 reb, 7 astAR: 15 pts, 8 reb, 3 astDA: 13 pts, 8 rebMarcus: 10 pts, 7 ast, 4 stl, 3 blk pic.twitter.com/qfjiPSljnE— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) March 4, 2026

LEBRON JAMES TONIGHT 👑 33 minutes 👑 21 points 👑 7 rebounds 👑 7 assists 👑 8/12 FGGRADE BRON’S PERFORMANCE 👇 pic.twitter.com/y9i2fgIwdv— Lakers Lead (@LakersLead) March 4, 2026

Marcus Smart tonight:10 Points 7 Assists 4 Steals3 Blocks3 Rebounds +13 +/-30 Minutes pic.twitter.com/0tpOzcsQqJ— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) March 4, 2026

Lakers WIN with all FIVE starters in double-figures:🔥 27 — Luka🔥 21 — LeBron🔥 15 — Reaves🔥 13 — Ayton🔥 10 — Smart pic.twitter.com/AwH8wm1BkB— Witness King James (@WITNESSKJ) March 4, 2026

Luka Doncic tonight:🪄 27 PTS🪄 10 REB 🪄 7 AST 🪄 10/22 FG🪄 38 MIN pic.twitter.com/uWtRO5zjST— LakeShowYo (@LakeShowYo) March 4, 2026

AUSTIN REAVES TONIGHT 🌟 37 minutes 🌟 15 points 🌟 8 rebounds 🌟 3 assists 🌟 4/15 FGSIT HIM UNTIL HE’S HEALTHY 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/jvkxNQDHKY— Lakers Lead (@LakersLead) March 4, 2026

FROM ABOVE ARTICLE:

Business first. Wizardry later.

The Lakers got another win, which is probably the only thing that counts in games like this in March against teams whose priorities are on the other side of the W–L column.

They won for the second game in a row, on the second night of a back-to-back, with a 128–104 rout of the Sacramento Kings. It was their second consecutive blowout win, another high-octane offensive outburst that pushed them back into the top 10 in offensive rating and nudged their point differential into positive territory at +0.5.

It’s hard to find any real big-picture takeaway from games like these, so I mostly look for smaller signals that could matter, and for the fun flashes and highlights that make watching basketball fun.

Today’s notes:

Continued emphasis on sharing the ball

An encouraging turnover trend

Marcus Smart and Maxi Kleber, the veteran hustle leaders (VIDEO)

Luka’s highlight mixtape (VIDEO)

Adou Thiero takeoff sighting (VIDEO)

1-Continued emphasis on sharing the ball

After the win against the Warriors, I wrote about a visible Lakers emphasis on sharing the ball and increasing ball movement. That carried over into this game, with four starters attempting more than five shots but none more than 10 in the first half. And with the way JJ Redick talked about Luka Dončić setting the tone with eight assists at halftime, and about the team’s 18 first-half assists in his postgame interview, it is easy to recognize the current area of focus.

After scoring only six points over the previous two games, Deandre Ayton got more early touches, scoring 10 of his 12 points before halftime. And because the Lakers took care of business early, none of the starters played more than 29 minutes, with Dončić and Reaves sitting out the entire fourth quarter again. Dončić finished with 28 points and nine assists. LeBron James, who had another efficient night from three, added 24 points and five assists. Reaves chipped in 12 points and five assists, becoming the third player with at least five dimes.

We’ll see how this ball movement and more egalitarian offense hold up against tougher competition, but the early returns are encouraging.

2-An encouraging turnover trend

Post–All-Star break, the Lakers haven’t been overly inspiring. Three disappointing losses to the Celtics, Magic, and Suns exposed some of the same old weaknesses. However, if the recent uptick in ball movement and ball sharing is a sign of change, the fact that the increased passing has also come with low turnover numbers adds another layer of promise.

A high turnover rate was a defining factor in many of the Lakers’ high-profile losses earlier in the season. For a team led by Dončić, James, and Reaves, being a high turnover team was one of the more disappointing trends and a key reason they were not operating as a top-five offense.

Post–All-Star break, the Lakers have flipped that trend, ranking among the better teams at taking care of the ball over this six-game stretch.

As with the improved ball movement, we need a larger sample size and more proof against stronger, more aggressive opponents. But ball control will remain crucial for this team, especially because their transition defense continues to be one of their biggest flaws.

3-Marcus Smart and Maxi Kleber, the veteran hustle leaders (VIDEO)

In a game that had an All-Star Game kind of up-and-down vibe, where defense was often optional, two players stood out by playing hard.

Like he has all season, Marcus Smart set the tone with his hustle, creating deflections and diving for loose balls. Sacramento is a team that can get reckless and turn the ball over at a high rate, and Smart took full advantage of that, finishing with five steals.

Maxi Kleber is another Laker who consistently brings effort, focus, and attention to detail, always trying to make the right defensive play. Being a high-effort, low-mistake player has always been his strength, but what once made him special was pairing that with above-average mobility and athleticism, at times even exceptional for his size.

In the last couple of games, we’ve seen flashes of that version again, with the German veteran making several highlight plays on both ends.

Interestingly, with Kleber looking as athletic as he has in a while, it is the other defensive specialist, Jarred Vanderbilt, who has lost his rotation spot to him. For the second game in a row, Redick also used Kleber primarily as the third big, playing him mostly at the center position.

Unadjusted one-season on/off data can be skewed and should be interpreted with caution. But I don’t think it’s a coincidence that both veterans lead the team and stand out in this category, especially on a team whose key flaw has been maintaining the right level of effort and focus for prolonged stretches.

4–Luka’s highlight mixtape (VIDEO)

Redick highlighted Dončić for setting the tone with his passing and for playing the right way in the first half. But for better or worse, one of Dončić’s tendencies has been to get a little bored in games against weaker opponents when his team builds a big lead. Sometimes that results in sloppy plays. Other times, geniuses produce their most unconventional work out of boredom. Last night, with his team up by nearly 20 midway through the third quarter, Dončić delivered two gems that made an otherwise forgettable game memorable.

First was a one-handed rocket skip pass to Luke Kennard in the corner. Luka highlight lovers will appreciate the added flair, with both Dončić and Reaves turning their backs the other way, already knowing the sharpshooter would not miss the wide-open look. The X’s-and-O’s junkies like me will obsess over how difficult it is to guard a Dončić stack pick-and-roll, with a vertical lob threat, Reaves as the back screener, and two elite shooters spaced in the corners.

The highlight of the night came on the very next possession. Dončić tried to hit the brakes and get into his signature step-back. But instead of shaking his defender, Dawqwon Plowden, this time Dončić dropped himself. Somehow, though, he managed to keep his dribble alive, popped back to his feet, and drilled a ridiculous contested fallaway three.

Watch the ESPN Los Angeles slow motion edit for another angle of this remarkable play. Postgame, Dončić claimed he slipped on purpose and said it will be part of his And-1 mixtape. Who am I to question an artist Jason Kidd once called a basketball Picasso?

5-Adou Thiero takeoff sighting (VIDEO)

One of the Lakers’ bigger challenges in their effort to re-build around Dončić is the lack of cost-controlled young talent on the roster, especially players who could help close the massive athleticism gap they face against most teams in the league. That is why drafting Adou Thiero with the 36th pick in last year’s draft was such an intriguing, low-risk, potentially high-reward gamble.

Health was a major reason Thiero slipped, and the 21-year-old has had a rookie season largely defined by injuries, with the team taking a cautious, long-term approach to his ongoing knee issues. Thiero’s offensive game is still very raw, but that does not stop fans from dreaming about the what-ifs whenever flashes like this pop up.

Even with all the cap space and flexibility this summer, the Lakers will need to uncover a hidden gem, a low-cost young player who can make a leap and become a real rotation contributor. Thiero’s first year has not been particularly encouraging, but among the current Lakers development projects, he still has the highest upside.