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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
The notion that Russell Westbrook will accept a buyout upon arriving at his new team (all assumed at this point, no actual evidence he will be traded) has come under little to no scrutiny. Well, let’s change that. Because you can’t truly buyout Westbrook unless he obliges his new team by forfeiting money he is due to be paid. Waiving him leaves his salary on the books. In fact, any salary NOT forfeited will remain on whatever team he may end up on’s cap sheet.
So…what amount does anyone think Russ will willingly walk away from? Knowing this is his last big payday he’ll ever get what is a number that would make sense. Frankly, if it’s me I forfeit zero. Pay me. I earned that money. But I’m not a pro athlete looking for a situation where I can come in and help a team win a ring.
I would imagine the cutoff is no lower than half of that massive amount of money. So half of $47,063,478 is exactly $23,531,739. Honestly, even that feels like a big “if”. Unless you’re planning on tanking outright that’s a gargantuan chunk of cap space to account for. Most ownership groups will think twice about either paying out that much money just to watch sign with Team X (potentially in their division and/or major rival) and I find the idea that Russ will walk away for more than half absurd.
So, since team’s in contention in large markets value cap space more than just about anything else when it comes to filling out a roster that means zero contending teams will be interested in Russ but we kind of knew that already. They won’t pay Russ to not play. Same, I would imagine, for teams on the cusp of contention (Knicks, Hornets, really any team that is 10-6 seeding wise in this year’s playoff/playin). That shrinks your trade partners to less then a handful of teams: Houston, Orlando, Oklahoma and maybe, just maybe Portland.
Now a team could choose to waive and stretch him meaning they stretch his salary out over the next 3 seasons (this is a not malleable, the 3 seasons is based on the number of years remaining on Russ’ deal which will be 1) and maybe a team like Charlotte or Indy and possibly others (most of whom have already signaled “No thank you!” on a Westbrook trade) looks at that scenario as being better than paying a broken down player of their own. Hard to say.
In the end the question seems like a big one considering the implications of someone taking Russell’s contract on. Very hard for me to imagine Russ walking away from so much money or a team allowing him to clutter up their cap space to such a degree while he plays elsewhere on their dime. Again, while it’s likely to happen this summer seeing as how poorly the Westbrook fit has been, the devil is often in the details.
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Aloha Jamie, here is how it works. If the Lakers waive and stretch Russ. He becomes a free agent. Any team that signs him will not owe any money. What could happen is his agent might find a deal out there for let’s say generously offers him 2 years at say 15 mil. Each. Russ might agree to reduce his buy out figure by 15 mil to 32 mil instead of the 47 he is owed. Unfortunately teams might just wait to see if Russ is bought out without a promise. If no promise exists Russ might want out so badly that he may agree to give up a little of that 47 mil but realistically it probably only be maybe 3 to 5 mil. Or Some figure that his agent feels he can realistically get on the open market. I definitely would give his agent permission to talk with other clubs. Now we all know that his agent can’t talk to anyone before free agency begins. Wink wink nod nod.
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Good post, Jamie. Russ being more willing than Wall to buy out his last year rather than sit is a wild card and you don’t know where he might end.
Lots of teams might be willing to gamble on Russ on $5 to $7M contract than a $47M one. I could see him ending up with the Knicks or even the Clippers (one can hope, LOL).
Most buyouts are limited to how much the player can get on the market once he is bought out. I think Michael’s $15M over two years could be high for Russ at this point. $6.2M ME for a year could be his limit.
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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
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Good fiver, Jamie. Thanks.
1. Blame game. Hope this doesn’t get too messy during the offseason. It’s already looking like open season on throwing everybody under the bus. What else is new?
2. Health game. Lakers ain’t going to win any more titles with LeBron and AD unless both are healthy all season long. If they don’t believe they can keep both healthy, then they should trade them right now.
3. Westbrook dilemma. I’m actually optimistic that Russ’ expiring contract and the two first round picks are going to be valuable trading chips that will get us at least two new starters.
4. Young dudes. Bring back Reaves, Johnson, and Gabriel via team options and re-sign Monk with mini or full MLE.
5. Farewell Frank. Vogel got a bum deal this season with the roster given him but there’s no way he returns. Lakers should have let him go early in the season to optimize the roster they had. Big mistake. Time to look at Rajon Rondo as Lakers next head coach.
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I tend to agree with this therealhtj, hard for me to see us solving every issue this summer given the materials we have to work with. You could well be right that #18 is won by The Next Generation of Lakers.
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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
The horse is dead and well-flogged. No need to continue. There should not be a player Rob doesn’t at least take a call for. When Frank gets fired you’ll see the band aid that’s trying to cover a deeper, far more serious wound. We need to tear it down and, to quote a campaign slogan, “build back better.” The problem is we won’t. Rob will stay, AD and LBJ will be here, maybe even Russ. Feels like Frank is doing everything he can to make certain he’s fired at this point. Worst season ever by a country mile. The end is, mercifully, nigh.
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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
1) No D
2) Guys trying hard
3) Rest of the league younger, better, etc.
4) Too many holes to fix in one trade
5) Ownership still cheap.-
5 Things to be encouraged about tonight:
1. AD playing like the best player on the planet
2. Rested AD ready to repeat bubble performance
3. Russell Westbrook figuring out how to fit in
4. Energy from youngsters Monk, Reaves, Johnson, and Gabriel
5. Scoring from savvy vets Melo and DJ Augustin -
Lakers sign LeBron to a 2-year extension with player option in second year. That lines his contract up exactly with AD. Last guaranteed year is 2022-23 and player options are 2023-24, when Bronny is draft eligible.
Lakers will re-sign or trade AD and then use free agency to load up again for an AD led championship run. So Lakers will not have to go through complete rebuild like they did after Kobe because they have AD.
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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
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Why Rob Needs To Go:
2018: Waived Thomas Bryant, who became a productive starter after the Wizards claimed him off waivers. If a young, talented big who can shoot the ball doesn’t fit your plans, why not trade him?
2018: Revoked future All-Star Julius Randle’s qualifying offer to let him walk as an unrestricted free agent. Randle was the No. 7 pick in 2014.
2019: Traded Svi Mykhailiuk and a second-round pick to the Pistons for Reggie Bullock, who left as a free agent after the season. Two smaller assets gone to rent the services of a veteran shooter. L.A. didn’t even make a playoff run.
2019: Traded Ivica Zubac (and Michael Beasley) to the Clippers for Mike Muscala, who left as a free agent after the season. The Lakers wasted another quality draft pick (No. 32 in 2016), gave the Clippers a starter and haven’t had anyone as good at center.
2020: Traded Danny Green and a first-round pick to get Dennis Schroder, who left as a free agent after the season. It was a significant step as L.A. broke apart its championship defensive identity, and it also threw away a first-rounder.
2020: Traded JaVale McGee and a second-rounder to the Cavaliers for Alfonzo McKinnie and Jordan Bell (waived immediately) to make salary-cap room for Marc Gasol. After the season, McKinnie was waived, and Gasol was traded with a second-round pick and $250,000 to the Grizzlies. McGee is playing a valuable supporting role for the first-place Suns. Neither Gasol nor McKinnie is in the NBA. That journey cost two second-round picks.
2021: Traded Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell and a first-round pick for Russell Westbrook, which has been covered ad nauseam.The above is copied and pasted from a much longer and in-depth article about why we are where we are on the Bleacher Report website. Some of that happened while Magic was GM and Rob was his #2 but the pattern continued regardless.
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I’m with you 100% that Frank Vogel and Rob Pelinka need to be fired. Problem is who replaces them? Lakers will likely fire Vogel and let Pelinka decide on new coach and offseason moves.
That in a nutshell is the problem with the Lakers. They have an owner who won’t make the critical basketball decisions that good owners have to make, like what kind of a team do we want to build, what is our vision? Who do we hire to build a team that meets that vision?
Some things that seem obvious to me at this point:
1. GO BIG. Lakers need a modern stretch center like Myles Turner or Christian Wood that will allow them to play big or small. We need to be bigger, which means leaving AD at the 4 and LeBron at the 3. Top priority should be to trade for Turner or Wood. Trading chips are THT, KN, and 2027 and 2029 first round draft picks.
2. STARTING POWER. Lakers need three starters that complement LeBron and AD rather than a third superstar, who makes it difficult to fill out the rest of the starting lineup with enough shooting and defense. Right now, Monk and Reaves would be better fits coming off the bench. Lakers also need two new starters to go with Turner or Wood. Players like Wall and Gordon to go with Wood or Brogdon and Hield to go with Turner.
3. CONTINUITY. Lakers need continuity and stability, which means we consider bringing back LeBron, AD, Reaves, Monk, Johnson, Gabriel, Melo, DJ, and Dwight. That’s 9 players, giving the Lakers more returning players than any of the last three years. That also leaves 6 roster spots open for new players for whom THT, Nunn, and the picks provide us.
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I feel your pain Jamie, the thing about that list is, it didn’t even include all of the bone head moves that’s been made. Trading Dlo at the height of his trade value as a salary dump ranks up there as well. And to add insult to injury they didn’t retain Lopez who was willing to stay for 5mil. Then there is the matter of drafting Lonzo over Tatum, the league and Lakers scouting department favorite as best in the draft, only because Magic thought it would be a “great Hollywood story “ one can only imagine what we would have had left if we had Dlo, Randle, Tatum, BI and Kuzma when we traded for AD. We definitely would have had more left and we would be in better shape now. I’m pretty sure Rob is safe which is the same as saying we’re screwed. While I’m sure they will try hard to move Russ, there isn’t many realistic deals out there. I definitely wouldn’t trade for Wall. LeBron will play like LeBron until he hangs it up. You need a PG that can play off the ball and shoot. Dennis couldn’t adjust his game and Russ couldn’t either. Wall would be the same deal. A ball dominate PG that can’t shoot. It’s not a stretch to believe that keeping Russ would be better then trading for Wall. He is more than likely better than Wall is now.
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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
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I liked how the Lakers responded without LeBron, especially that they played the same game as they played with him and almost won. Fewer turnovers by Russ, fewer free throws for Sixers, and hit a couple more threes and we would have had a win.
At any rate, this is another win in my book because we showed consistency in how hard and how we play. Dwight was great and could be important because we don’t have anyone who can do what he can other than AD. Russ needs to be more careful but I like how he continues to post up his man to beat the paint packers. Great game by Stanley, who walked his earlier talk.
Important point to me is there are lots of players who should be back next season. LeBron, AD, Reaves are under contract. Lakers should give Gabriel 2 year deal with team option like Johnson. Both should be back on those team options.
Monk must return, even if we have to hard cap ourselves to pay him $10M per year. Hell, I’d bring back JR too. So how many is that?
James, Davis, Reaves.
Monk, Johnson, Gabriel
Anthony, Augustin, Dwight?That’s 9 returning players.
Gone are Russ, Bazemore, Ariza, THT, Nunn, Bradley, Ellington
That’s 6 open roster spots to be filled via trading Russ, THT, and Nunn.
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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
If I’ve learned anything about this team we have a slim to none chance of winning most nights and with The King resting his knee tonight Slim just left the building.
San Antonio has a punchers chance of over-taking us in the standings. 3 games back with a far easier schedule.
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This almost seems like more of a strategic rather than injury related decision. Better to not play Lebron at the five against Embiid. We’re locked in at #9 so smart move by Lakers. Deal with 76ers when we have both AD and LeBron.
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We’re not locked into jack. 3 games back with 10 to go and San Antonio has a MUCH easier strength of schedule as they play Portland 3 times, Houston once and teams that are likely to be resting starters for playoff runs late. We have the exact opposite. That’s why I won’t be too blown away if we miss the playin based on how this team shows up on a nightly basis which is to say they arrive at the arena.
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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
Is there a world where AD and Nunn coming back elevates this team to a more competitive level on both ends? Gone would be WG’s minutes, for the most part. Less of Bradley and Reaves, one assumes…maybe even less Russ in critical situations?
Defense would improve as AD would become the starting 5 allowing LeBron to be a help/weakside defender as energy allowed him to be.
Three point shooting would improve, hopefully, with Nunn.
Rust would be a factor for both players but once that got resolved they’d have plenty of gas in the tank.
Since they’re not playing it’s all dream weaving and hogwash, though, so until they suit up this is where we’re at…
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I’ve done the exact same thing and there is something there that could turn positive for us. Probably not enough to go all the way but you never know. If we could survive the play-in and take down the Suns in the first round, who’s to say we couldn’t go all the way. Would need to stay healthy but we’re due on that end.
Can’t hurt to have a little hope. And I do think it’s important for the team to continue to fight. We need to win to stay in the play-in tourney. Let’s put those teams who don’t want to face us in a 7-game series on notice to start worrying.
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Here’s another way of looking at how AD and Nunn could change things if Vogel narrows the rotation to just 9-10 players going into the playoffs.
The big question is who falls out of the rotation when and if Davis and Nunn return? The answer to me is THT and Bradley. That’s who should become ICOEBG except for Frank Vogel’s distorted opinions.
Here is my 9-man rotation with a little Dwight when needed:
PG – Westbrook
SG – Monk
SF – Reaves
PF – James
CE – DavisRPG – Nunn
RSG – Johnson
RSF – Gabriel
RPF – Anthony
RCE – HowardBU1 – Augustin
BU2 – Bradley
BU3 – THT
BU4 – Ellington
BU5 – ArizaCut – Bazemore
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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
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Nice Post Jamie, coaching is as big a problem for this team as the players themselves. Frank talked about the 4th quarter defense and how our switching scheme had worked earlier. But it stopped working and that’s where you make adjustments. The Wiz were seeking out switches to land a guard on Porzingas. The Lakers should have countered with Dwight and played him straight up, with no switching. Dwight can guard Porzingas even out at the 3 point line because he doesn’t posses the quickness to blow by Dwight, and Dwight can body him out of his spots. If not Dwight at least Gabriel who is athletic, 6’ 9” with a 7’ 1” wingspan. Instead Lebrons on him for a second until we switched a guard on him. As for offense, we saw what we had been seeing in the 1st except we saw it in the 4th. A LeBron centric offense with a tired LeBron. As for Monk, he got one shot in the 4th, that made 3. The guy is a gifted scorer and is completely underutilized. As for THT, he has been in and out of the line up with that ankle sprain. They really should have just rested him until it healed. No use playing a guy that can only go like 60% especially a guy with TaHT’s game that realized on attacking the paint.
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I have to agree with Michael that it was Vogel and the coaches as much as the players who lost this game. Not playing Dwight or making adjustments to double Porzingis was inexcusable.
Lakers are making a big mistake by not having fired Vogel and given one of the assistants the opportunity to show what impact a new coach could have had. Vogel is burning any bridges he had to potentially keep his job. Jeanie should have fired him right after the game
Imagine if we had Kyle Lowry on the roster last summer instead of THT. There would not have been any Westbrook trade. This is one situation where I blame Klutch for likely not wanting to include Talen, which was a major Pelinka mistake.
Could Russ improving play make a difference? I still have some hope there, as well as like Jamie, with AD and Nunn helping. We’re now in one of those situations where it’s not a case of us turning it around. LOL. 9o It’s more like rising from the dead.
Guess Frank never heard of a defense that switches every position but center. Man, how dumb can Vogel be. It is like he’s deliberately trying to sabotage the Lakers.
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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
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Great fiver, Jamie. Nice to have a win to talk about.
1. Man, I’m happy for Russ, to make that steal and then hit that three. Wow, Russ probably got the best night of sleep since he was traded to the Lakers. I’m hoping it will be a huge relief that will trigger a streak of these games to finish the year and give the Lakers a glimmer of hope heading into the play-in tourney.
2. LeBron’s not 100%. At times, his frustration shows. But he keeps on chugging and the Lakers can only go as far as he carries them. We don’t win this game without LeBron’s great play off the ball and protecting the rim.
3. Wenyen for real or not? He may not be the solution to the Lakers starting small forward but what a pleasure seeing a 6′ 8″ player with hops and athleticism playing the three for the Lakers. What Gabriel shows is how good we could be if he had size a the three. If anything to me, it reinforces the idea that we should throw our two picks and pieces to Detroit to get Jerami Grant. Not that I wouldn’t sign Wenyen for the same deal as Stanley, who also had a great game with 5 assists.
4. Apologies to Avery, whom I’ve demoted, cut, and sliced into a million pieces during his Lakers tenure. Game ball for closing the game when we needed it. I’ve never been a huge fan of Avery’s ‘active’ defense as I think he just gets fouls and beaten off the dribble but I’ve always respected his willingness to shoot the three when passed the ball. He was lethal last night and hit the game winners.
5. Dwight must start until AD returns. Part of our battle to win games has been the uphill battle on the boards and scoring in the paint because our micro lineups are tooooooooo smaaaalll. There’s no bigger small ball fan on this site than me but it’s small balll on steroids that I like, it’s offense based on spreading the floor, shooting threes, and attacking the rim to get dunks and fouls. Putting LeBron at the 5 with 4 guards is micro ball and can only work in certain situations. Lakers need size. Gabriel’s performance is a plus for him but just proof of how the lack of a legitimate starting small forward bigger than 6′ 5″ has killed the Lakers.
The Westbrook Curse was broken last night. We’re going to see a Lakers team that used tdo be snake-bitten and expecting the worse to happen transform back into a confident, hungry unit that will start winning 3 out of 4 the rest of the way. At least, that’s whatI’m hoping and what logic tells us we should ezpect.
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Yeah I’m not saying anything other than one decent game happened last night. It’s not the Westbrook Curse but rather the Folly of the Front Office in constructing an old, slow, small team. It’s all uphill from here on out and has been since before the All Star break. Quality of opponents is high, skill and talent level of our team is low. One win changes nothing at this point just means we were able to come together better than most nights.
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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
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The question that still remains unanswered to me is why this team is in such freefall. We know about the injuries to LeBron, AD, and other key players, how LeBron, AD, and Russ just do not fit well, and the galling unforgiveable lack of size on the roster. But a team with LeBron James has never been this bad.
This team simply has no identity, no chemistry, no continuity, and no size. The coaching has been negligent, the lineups ludicrous, and excuses more nonsensical after each loss. Frank Vogel has lost this team and the players as a collective have thrown in the towel. All that remains is for the Lakers to wave the white flag.
It’s stupid for the Lakers to not fire Frank Vogel right now. It’s the one thing the front office can do that’s not going to affect the team long term and will give us a chance to isolate how much of a problem the coach was in this situation. Let Fizdale or Handy see if he can get the team to win some games. Let’s see if the team responds to a new voice. They obviously can’t hear Frank.
Only reason Lakers are not firing Frank is the crazy hope that AD will solve everything when he comes back. Lakers just refuse to let that pipe dream die. Not many more optimistic than me but even I’ve buried that dream.
Time now to get information to help make decisions going forward. Let take Frank out of the equation. Let’s start Gabriel over Johnson. We need size. We won with small-ball-on-steroids with AD, LeBron, and Markieff. Playing LeBron, Stanley, and Austin is not the same thing. That’s not even small ball. It’s micro-ball. Problem is we don’t have the horses to play big or small. Let’s not waste the last 16 games of this season.
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You touched on the coach being the issue but its’s your second point that is more salient. This roster was constructed so incredibly badly I think it’s amazing it’s done as well as it has. I actually don’t think Frank has lost the team, it’s just a really really really really really bad team. Once we got scouted and Russ didn’t change that was it. It’s not like Russ not changing is on Frank, either. Westbrook isn’t changing for anyone now, in the past or on down the line. We play a starting 5 of a rookie, a guy who started one game prior to this season, a waiver wire pickup, James and Westbrook. That’s because everyone else has shown us they can’t defend or score reliably. We’re playing our best players. Frank is to blame for much but definitely not all. The only reason, though, that I think Frank is still around was that he won is a banner. They’re letting him try. Either way, Jesus couldn’t get more out of this team. It’s a crappy team built by ridiculous analytics and not smarts or trust in past accomplishments.
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Jamie Sweet wrote a new post
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I’m no salary cap/CBA expert so if I am wrong on something written above please feel free to leave a correction. Thanks.