We are at the point in the offseason where summer league is done and teams are, well, they’re all just sitting there. Most player movement and big deals happen up to or during summer league. Not a hard rule and of course trades or signings are likely to continue all the way until camp starts but the generally the big splashes and names have already been handled at this point. Not this season. Since Mongo said he was going fishing we’re going with that theme for this 5er.

1. Seismic shifts making waves. I wrote at the beginning of the Lakers summer while the playoffs were all but done (maybe just after, hard to recall…) that it would take some seismic shifts in the NBA to shake a Russell Westbrook trade loose. Well, that happened alright. After Kyrie opted into his deal everyone thought the Nets were set to start building out the roster-oh wait Kevin Durant asked for a trade. Boom. Then the Jazz traded Gobert to Minny for a King’s ransom. Blammo. Then they put Donovan Mitchell sorta kinda maybe on the trading block for a double King’s ransom. Kablooey. Those were the kinds of things I thought would have to happen for a Russ trade to have a sliver of hope.
2. Bait’s in the water but nothing’s biting. Durant is till a Net. So is Kyrie. Mitchell’s market is robust but the ask is pretty danged high (as it should be a star on the rise who is only 25). All these bombs dropped but very little shook loose. In fact the opposite happened, everything kind of just froze up and locked in place. Utah is asking for 7 (!) first round draft picks for Spyda. The Nets want a Gobert-esque haul for KD. They’re holding out hope of squeezing two 1st rounders from LA to lose Kyrie…maybe…or they want to keep him, hard to tell. Teams around the league have started filling out the back end of their rosters, except the Spurs who can afford to wait. There are a grip of un-signed free agents of impact and with summer league over there will likely be a lull of a couple weeks before things maybe heat up again prior to camp starting.
3. Big Fish still out there. Russell is still a Laker. Listen to Darvin Ham and he seems intent on making it work. Like many of the Laker statements these days that should come with a “well what else is he supposed to say?” caveat. Darvin will have to make it work with whatever roster he inherits from Rob. The Lakers though are seemingly polarized into inaction by caution. Is LeBron going to sign that extension on 8/4? That’s the Big Fish question and everything is dictated by how that breaks. Personally I actually don’t see any big moves happening until that day because it is at that time LeBron can comment on what he wants in order to make that happen. That’s 22 days away. Time enough for executives to go on vacation and come back. Camp starts in September-ish, between LeBron’s date and then there will be time enough to get a deal done, should a deal be found.
4. Cut bait and run? What are the 2027 and 2029 Laker 1st round draft picks truly worth? Remember they’re not the only picks we have access to, the other ones just can’t be traded until draft night of their respective summers. Or, crazy idea here, we could actually pick some young players with them! Regardless the Lakers will actually have one of either next or the following summer’s draft pick (based on what NOLA does). Get into it here. So, knowing that there will be pathways forward to draft young talent it’s curious to see the Lakers hold the line so staunchly regarding those 2 picks. There are two theories I have: one the Lakers realize how they have frittered away draft assets in pursuit of ill-fitting veterans and have chosen to stop doing that, Jeannie has clipped Rob’ wings a little bit…at least for now until we hear from The King. My guess is the second one. I think, for good or ill, Jeannie is asserting herself a little more. I don’t think the Lakers will trade those away without a firm commitment from LeBron. That’s smart, in my opinion. Everyone is saying all sorts of nice things but we’re talking about the same guy that left Cleveland in spectacular fashion on live TV, Miami without much notice and is now obligated to remain quiet until 8/4. This feels to many like a time to rush forward and do whatever one thinks may please LeBron. I am not one of those people. The Lakers have to do right by the Lakers and that means taking all the factors into consideration. LeBron is under contract next season and can sign an extension any time. He won’t demand a trade (or if so will look pretty silly doing so) and we won’t trade him (Jeannie has said as much up to this point saying even he doesn’t sign his extension they won’t consider trading him). James can’t say what he wants right now. So waiting is prudent if not really all that exciting.
5. The one that got away? With the news that the Indy deal is “dead” some panic may begin to creep into those who see a trade of Westbrook as the only way forward. First off no deal is dead until the players on said team aren’t on the team, have no-trade clauses, or veto rights. So it’s just dead for the time being because everyone is moving on for a few weeks. LeBron’s date is the key to everything. It opens all the doors for what he might want in this moment, allows him to voice his opinion and provide the information the Lakers obviously feel like they need to move forward. Is that smart? I don’t know. I think that it would probably be better for the Lakers to trade Russ one way or the other, if they can, but I am also of the opinion that you can’t so heavily sabotage the future to do so. Yes, they’re only 2 draft picks but they’re likely to be decent as neither AD or LeBron are likely to be on the team by then. By that logic they’re the two most valuable for the Lakers. That they represent the best chances to rebuild prior to 2030. I have to applaud the Lakers stance tis summer as it’s one I’ve long wanted them to adopt: open for business but we’re not suckers and we don’t throw draft picks away like it’s a fire sale. Cost-controlled players who re top ten picks can be franchise altering. If you’re not getting back a sure-fire banner competing team for them you’re doing yourself wrong by tossing them away. Buddy Heild is not that player, nether is Myles Turner. Frankly, given the fact he’s only averaged 55 games/season for his career, neither is Kyrie Irving. There’s still plenty of time, as well. A lot could change internally for all parties involved. The Nets could decide running it back as-is is preferable. The Pacers seem to want both for two decent players but that doesn’t change the fact that one of those players is injury prone (Myles Turner who has played in fewer than 50 games the past two seasons) and a defensive sieve in Buddy. Sorry but that deal is just not worth both of those draft picks.

In the end desperation is a bad look for anyone at the bargaining table. The Lakers have done a decent job of holding the line on what assets they have. That’s smart and a nice change to see happening after the last 3 summers where we threw good players at bad along with draft picks all in the name of silly tweaks to a roster that won it all. For all those moves we’ve made we basically have fewer draft picks and Russell Westbrook to show for it. That’s not really a track record of success. Where the Lakers do have a track record of success is in the draft and so I like that they are realizing where their strengths and weaknesses lie. That may not sync up with LeBron’s timeline. If so, so be it. That’s the nature of the NBA and LeBron will either be here or he won’t. One way or another the games will be played.

The idea of trade winds has been around for some time. If you’ve spent time at sea or hang with people with a nautical bent you’ll hear them bring them up on occasion. In case you’re wondering what they are: The trade winds are winds that reliably blow east to west just north and south of the equator. The winds help ships travel west, and they can also steer storms such as hurricanes, too. Stuck at sea? Head towards the equator and build some speed up, find some winds to ride and get back in sight of land. For all intents and purposes, the Lakers are currently stuck at sea and good trade wind may be the only way to regain momentum with the current crew.

1. The Perfect Storm. The big thing online these days is to dissect the myriad of ways the Lakers could acquire Kyrie Irving and some other players at the cost of Russell Westbrook and…and uh, well, that there’s the current conundrum. Hurricanes Lakers, Nets, Russell and Kyrie have not combined to form the perfect storm yet. Sometimes tropical storm Spurs get tossed out there as a potential catalyst but I ain’t buying that one. In fact it’s actually more like All Quiet on the Western Front with nothing but false radar blips and sonar pings in the form of media heads filling the time and space between now and the start of camp with the best TV the NBA has to offer this time of year: Laker drama at 6 followed by our T.G.I.F. line up of “What’s LeBron Doing?” at 7, “Look Where Russell Is Sitting” at 8 and “Look Kyrie Said Something at the Spark Game!!!” at 9 followed by the Late Show with host Anthony Davis. People call the week or so between the end of the playoffs and the draft the Dog Days of summer but, for me at least, this is the Dog Days. No real information, people who are paid to talk doing just that with nary a real fact to report and Lakers fans reeking of almost as much desperation as Rob clinging to every post or report. It’s enough to make a man watch Snowflake Mountain.
2. When the wind dies down. Sending Kyrie to the Lakers is really the only option they have besides keeping him on the roster and forcing his hand. If the Nets can’t find a suitable trade for Durant this option becomes a lot more viable since Durant has indicated that he would love to keep the wacky-ass partnership he has going with Irving alive on some other sucker, er, team. Why? Who knows and, frankly, who cares. The fact that Durant feels that way is enough for the Nets to keep the band together until camp comes around and let those two figure out what they want to do. Without KD and Irving it feels unlikely that the Nets will compete this season. That could change if they can convince Phoenix or Miami to part with an All Star…which also feels unlikely. To date the Nets have indicated that a Kyrie deal will happen after a Durant deal which doesn’t feel imminent. In fact all the noise around that topic has died down to barely a whisper, enough to make the water ripple but not enough to push the boat through the sea. I don’t think a Kyrie trade happens at all if the Nets can’t find a trade they like for Kevin.
3. The doldrums are a real thing. As reliable as a trade wind can be there is, like in all things, a flip side to that phenomena. It’s called The Doldrums. The doldrums is a popular nautical term that refers to the belt around the Earth near the equator where sailing ships sometimes get stuck on windless waters. That’s where all parties involved are right now. Teams like Minnesota have rejected giving up 2 young stars (KAT and AE) and a grip ton of draft picks. There is no movement on the Phoenix or Miami front. The hilarious Golden State connection is DOA. In short, that ship isn’t going anywhere and is looking for a breath of fresh wind to fill the sails. Could that be a Kyrie Irving three team trade that ends up giving Brooklyn and large Traded Player Exception that could be used to offload a bad deal or two to help convince a team like Miami to part with Bam or Phoenix to part with Booker or Minny to part with newly extended Kat? No. I don’t think so. I’ve looked over what that involves and neither the Lakers or Nets have the draft assets, currently, to make that feasibly entice a team like San Antonio to do them a favor. So until the asking price for Durant goes down he is staying a Net.
4. Would the Nets just trade Kyrie and change for Russell? Personally I don’t see that happening for the following reasons: I think the Nets believe that they can bring Kevin back into the fold by not trading Kyrie and that they can get both guys on something akin to the same page with the organization. The Nets have bent over backwards to accommodate both men and they have continued to fill out the roster with useful role-players. Moves that remind me how the Lakers responded when Kobe demanded to be traded. They never once publicly said they wouldn’t do it but nor did they panic and take the first bad deal that came down the pike. The fact that both Durant and Bryant seemed to think they could be traded for players that weren’t All Stars and just bit guys and draft picks speaks to how out of touch with reality Durant is in this moment. The Nets might not get Booker but they won’t settle for an extended Ayton. The Nets might not get Jimmy but they won’t settle for an extended/hard-capping Herro. So on and so forth. The sticking point on the Lakers end seems to be utterly bailing on the rest of the decade and why that could, maybe just possibly, be a bad thing to do. Especially with the following facts in hand: COVID will get worse in winter which may very well lead states like California to require proof of vaccination in order to attend, engage in or be a part of indoor events. At that point Kyrie is about as valuable as The Maltese Falcon. Everyone assumes LeBron can reign in Kyrie, including LeBron. No offense but we saw how well that worked last season dude. James doesn’t have the pull or voice he once did, he couldn’t communicate with Russ in any meaningful way and still doesn’t seem to have. Does anyone really believe that Russ is more stubborn than Kyrie is? I don’t, at best they are the same level of self before others, at worse Kyrie is more stubborn as we have seen him willing to miss playoff games in the name of standing up for the little guy. Which he’s doing great at, by the way.
5. Any way the wind blows, doesn’t really matter to me…to me. If this is mostly about keeping LeBron James happy than the calculus is jacked. LeBron is as fickle as they in regards to whom is on the team. The one thing that has been proven to me is that LeBron is good at a whole heckuva lot of things. Team building isn’t one of them. It’s why Cleveland lost it’s luster to him early on, they cowed to his every whim. It’s why he chose Miami because, somewhere inside of him, he realized he functions best in an organized and structured environment with a clear line of command. He went back to Cleveland to finish a job and he came here because it’s a matter of both convenience and mutual goals. He came because of the legacy and the history, not because the Laker front office are masters of, well, anything at all but leaking bad information for no advantageous reason whatsoever. He will move on, like all mercs do, when the goals diverge or the convenience becomes something else. He is not, and has never been, a Laker Lifer. I’m sure he’ll do the little Spectrum shows, do a top ten LeBron Laker moments, so on so forth. He’ll pass Laker Legends in a Laker uniform and that’s kind of cool but it also feels kind of calculated and, honestly, a little pre-meditated which pisses me off a little. Kobe played himself into the ground wearing that jersey, Magic had to be stricken by a deadly illness and still came back for more. LeBron? Well, if one is honest, he’s doing exactly what he can do right now which is wait until 8/4/2022 to say or do anything regarding his extension. So final judgement can wait a couple weeks. Still, I can’t let myself put LeBron in anywhere near the same category as the other all time Laker greats I just mentioned, I don’t even put him at Pau Gasol level, yet. Pau got traded, for wee and fragile Chris Paul who is unlikely to ever win a ring at this point, because some brainiac in the front office thought the ball dominant superstar who never gave the ball up to anybody would totally give the ball up to CP3 thus breaking up potentially the last, great Laker dynasty. How did Pau respond? He was, as he has always been, a pro about it. Called it unfortunate, said he wanted to stay a Laker, and played the season out Can’t say I believe that team had another ring in them but you never know and now we never will. Anyhow, point of all that here on #5 is we need to prepare for a post-LeBron world and nobody should really want Kyrie here unless he takes a pay cut and has a contract with games played performance clauses. If someone doesn’t show up to work (and let’s remember Kyrie averages 55 games/season and a lot of those aren’t due to any injuries at all nor exclusively COVID related) they’re about as useful as the office chair their ass should be sitting in.

Saturday has come and gone, summer league ends tomorrow, so when Mr. Sun comes up on Monday morning and there is no Kyrie trade it’ll just set off a different wave of absurdity and nonsense. “We saw them at the place, they talked and smiled, WOJ WAS THERE!!!” and other forms of boring malarkey. You can bet I’ll be tuning it out because it’s empty-headed nonsense brought to life for the sole purpose of occupying space and time. Rob should continue to try and leverage the Brooklyn situation to pressure a team like Indy to make a deal for THT and Nunn, sans draft picks if he can, and then batten down the hatches and prepare for a squall. The truth is even that kind of deal feels pretty farfetched at this point. Starting to feel like this is the team rolling into next season to me.