Great article, Tom. Lakers have a great shot at winning game 5 and putting a little more doubt into the defending champs. All season the Lakers (as you said) had gotten leads in first half to give it all back in second. The keys to avoid this are as follows.
1. Get Davis involved often in 3rd & 4th quarters. The more he is involved the better the Lakers tend to play.
2. Give LeBron rest in 3rd so he is “Playoff Bron” in 4th. Had a great 4th qtr with 14pts in game 4. Need that in every 4th qtr going forward.
3. Need to continue to target Murray in P&R with Austin & either AD or Bron. If he switches Bron or AD go to hoop on him. If not Austin can use the pick to blow by & either score or get their defense jumbled so another shooter has a open shot (DLo or Rui, etc.) This will wear out Murray so not as effective in end of games, plus sore if he is injured.
4. Keep the pace of the game fast for 3rd & 4th. Lakers did that in 4th game with great effect. Denver likes to slow it down & use their size on teams. Speed and pace will help offset that.
5. Gang rebound!! we need the rebound & possession numbers to be roughly equal or better for Lakers to keep our lead intact or make a comeback if needed.
Tom you know my take on this. Even though we lost a game on Monday we should have won, we also know what we have to do better. First we need to crash the boards. If Vando & Wood can play rebounding will help. 2nd need to cut down on stupid turnovers. Bron & DLo have turned into turnover machines the last 2 games. Have to take care of the ball. 3rd Austin and Rui have to be more aggressive making Murray and MPJ play defense & maybe getting tired and in foul trouble. Get Austin into pick and roll with Bron, AD to force a switch or make Murray have to play hard defense. Every time they let Austin stay outside, Murray gets rest.
Rebounding, Less Turnovers & Austin/ Rui Aggression (P&R Austin w/Bron or AD). We do that we can consistently ourscore Denver (our defense has been good otherwise) & win next 2 and game 6 at Crypto, split the other 2 games in Denver & win in 6 or 7.
Tom great look at the 5 things:
1. Can AD control Joker? – it will be several guys guarding him, AD, Rui & Bron will all do that to give him different looks. It is not as much control as to make him work on both offense and defense (AD has to make his mid range and floaters as that is probably what he will get). They shouldn’t double too much, just as a change of pace. If they can slow him down, that will go a long way to keeping the game where Lakers want it.
2. Can Lebron Dominate? We have “Playoff LeBron” for first time since 2021. I think at the beginning of playoffs when he is fresh, the answer is yes.
3. Can DLO Redeem Himself? He has supreme motivation to do so. I think he will score enough and move the ball, plus use his long arms to tip passes & make it harder to shoot over him. I think we will see DLo similar to the regular season.
4. Can Lakers Control Murray? That is a fairly low bar – Murray averaged 32ppg in the 4 game sweep. If Austin, Gabe and maybe Spencer (Bron too?) can keep him busy playing defense & wearing him out, maybe can keep him down to his regular season average (21-22ppg). That would be a big advantage!
5. Can L.A. Outshoot Denver? As your data shows, since Feb 1 Lakers have had one less win than Denver while ourshooting and ourscoring them. That will be a big advantage for LA. Last year Lakers had trouble scoring consistently against the Nuggets. I think this year their shooting is so much better all around (especially from 3) that there is a good chance we can ourshoot them.
Based on all this, plus Lakers are rested and hopefully acclimated to the altitude when they play tomorrow afternoon, that these 5 points can turn those close losses in WCF last year to close wins. LAKERS IN SIX!!
1)This is all well and good, but there was another circumstance that shouldn’t affect the Lakers the rest of the regular season: playing in the high altitude of Denver without taking precautions to acclimate to this. Just like in game 1 of WCF, Lakers need to be in Denver day before to practice and prepare. After the first quarter in that game, Lakers were down by 12 and lost by 6. Last night, Lakers were down by 14 and lost by 12. Starting even would tend to make some of these games up there much more winnable. Fortunately they play Denver in February and March at Crypto so this should not be an issue again in regular season.
2)I think Austin Reaves will end up being the Lakers 3rd go to guy in this season as well as DLo and Rui being better supporting cast members. This was just a game when all 3 were shooting poorly which effected all of their games.
3) LeBron playing less than 30 minutes a game may be desirable but it doesn’t have to happen every game!! Let him go to 34 or 35 in a close game, then scale him back the next game to 28 or so. This needs to be a case by case basis this year. Playing him only 32-33 min a game average over the season will still be the least he has ever played (33.4m for 2020-21 and 34.6m for 2019-20 both with Lakers). This plus games where he plays but say for 25-27m a game should accomplish the same result but still have him available for the 4th quarter if needed.
I really feel if we do this, we should be fine keeping Bron and AD healthy to play 65-70 games and all the good things that will come with it.
Beyond this I wouldn’t do anything drastic for the first 20 games or so and see where we are.
Like your first lineup (Jovan also says this is the projected lineup) except you have moved Prince to the 3rd team which I disagree with. Cam Reddish is not going to come in the game before Prince. He is going to fight for minutes when there is foul trouble or AD/Bron sits out. Also Bron is the starter at PF & Rui at SF as Rui is better at chasing wings than Bron. Or start Vando at the 3.
Same thing with 2nd lineup. Start Vando & move Cam to 3rd team.
3rd lineup is not likely at all. Wood at the 5 is a disaster waiting to happen. You have Bron having to chase SF again & AD getting in foul trouble helping Wood down low at 214 lb (Most centers are at least 230+, so a size problem there. Imagine Phoenix resigning Biyombo at 6’8″ 255lb with 7’6″ wingspan – he would back down Wood & shoot (or dunk) over him cause of his 3″ wingspan disadvantage. This is a big problem. Bring Wood off the bench with Hayes at C or AD at C.
Great article, Tom. Lakers have a great shot at winning game 5 and putting a little more doubt into the defending champs. All season the Lakers (as you said) had gotten leads in first half to give it all back in second. The keys to avoid this are as follows.
1. Get Davis involved often in 3rd & 4th quarters. The more he is involved the better the Lakers tend to play.
2. Give LeBron rest in 3rd so he is “Playoff Bron” in 4th. Had a great 4th qtr with 14pts in game 4. Need that in every 4th qtr going forward.
3. Need to continue to target Murray in P&R with Austin & either AD or Bron. If he switches Bron or AD go to hoop on him. If not Austin can use the pick to blow by & either score or get their defense jumbled so another shooter has a open shot (DLo or Rui, etc.) This will wear out Murray so not as effective in end of games, plus sore if he is injured.
4. Keep the pace of the game fast for 3rd & 4th. Lakers did that in 4th game with great effect. Denver likes to slow it down & use their size on teams. Speed and pace will help offset that.
5. Gang rebound!! we need the rebound & possession numbers to be roughly equal or better for Lakers to keep our lead intact or make a comeback if needed.
Here’s to Lakers in 7!!
Tom you know my take on this. Even though we lost a game on Monday we should have won, we also know what we have to do better. First we need to crash the boards. If Vando & Wood can play rebounding will help. 2nd need to cut down on stupid turnovers. Bron & DLo have turned into turnover machines the last 2 games. Have to take care of the ball. 3rd Austin and Rui have to be more aggressive making Murray and MPJ play defense & maybe getting tired and in foul trouble. Get Austin into pick and roll with Bron, AD to force a switch or make Murray have to play hard defense. Every time they let Austin stay outside, Murray gets rest.
Rebounding, Less Turnovers & Austin/ Rui Aggression (P&R Austin w/Bron or AD). We do that we can consistently ourscore Denver (our defense has been good otherwise) & win next 2 and game 6 at Crypto, split the other 2 games in Denver & win in 6 or 7.
Tom great look at the 5 things:
1. Can AD control Joker? – it will be several guys guarding him, AD, Rui & Bron will all do that to give him different looks. It is not as much control as to make him work on both offense and defense (AD has to make his mid range and floaters as that is probably what he will get). They shouldn’t double too much, just as a change of pace. If they can slow him down, that will go a long way to keeping the game where Lakers want it.
2. Can Lebron Dominate? We have “Playoff LeBron” for first time since 2021. I think at the beginning of playoffs when he is fresh, the answer is yes.
3. Can DLO Redeem Himself? He has supreme motivation to do so. I think he will score enough and move the ball, plus use his long arms to tip passes & make it harder to shoot over him. I think we will see DLo similar to the regular season.
4. Can Lakers Control Murray? That is a fairly low bar – Murray averaged 32ppg in the 4 game sweep. If Austin, Gabe and maybe Spencer (Bron too?) can keep him busy playing defense & wearing him out, maybe can keep him down to his regular season average (21-22ppg). That would be a big advantage!
5. Can L.A. Outshoot Denver? As your data shows, since Feb 1 Lakers have had one less win than Denver while ourshooting and ourscoring them. That will be a big advantage for LA. Last year Lakers had trouble scoring consistently against the Nuggets. I think this year their shooting is so much better all around (especially from 3) that there is a good chance we can ourshoot them.
Based on all this, plus Lakers are rested and hopefully acclimated to the altitude when they play tomorrow afternoon, that these 5 points can turn those close losses in WCF last year to close wins. LAKERS IN SIX!!
1)This is all well and good, but there was another circumstance that shouldn’t affect the Lakers the rest of the regular season: playing in the high altitude of Denver without taking precautions to acclimate to this. Just like in game 1 of WCF, Lakers need to be in Denver day before to practice and prepare. After the first quarter in that game, Lakers were down by 12 and lost by 6. Last night, Lakers were down by 14 and lost by 12. Starting even would tend to make some of these games up there much more winnable. Fortunately they play Denver in February and March at Crypto so this should not be an issue again in regular season.
2)I think Austin Reaves will end up being the Lakers 3rd go to guy in this season as well as DLo and Rui being better supporting cast members. This was just a game when all 3 were shooting poorly which effected all of their games.
3) LeBron playing less than 30 minutes a game may be desirable but it doesn’t have to happen every game!! Let him go to 34 or 35 in a close game, then scale him back the next game to 28 or so. This needs to be a case by case basis this year. Playing him only 32-33 min a game average over the season will still be the least he has ever played (33.4m for 2020-21 and 34.6m for 2019-20 both with Lakers). This plus games where he plays but say for 25-27m a game should accomplish the same result but still have him available for the 4th quarter if needed.
I really feel if we do this, we should be fine keeping Bron and AD healthy to play 65-70 games and all the good things that will come with it.
Beyond this I wouldn’t do anything drastic for the first 20 games or so and see where we are.
Like your first lineup (Jovan also says this is the projected lineup) except you have moved Prince to the 3rd team which I disagree with. Cam Reddish is not going to come in the game before Prince. He is going to fight for minutes when there is foul trouble or AD/Bron sits out. Also Bron is the starter at PF & Rui at SF as Rui is better at chasing wings than Bron. Or start Vando at the 3.
Same thing with 2nd lineup. Start Vando & move Cam to 3rd team.
3rd lineup is not likely at all. Wood at the 5 is a disaster waiting to happen. You have Bron having to chase SF again & AD getting in foul trouble helping Wood down low at 214 lb (Most centers are at least 230+, so a size problem there. Imagine Phoenix resigning Biyombo at 6’8″ 255lb with 7’6″ wingspan – he would back down Wood & shoot (or dunk) over him cause of his 3″ wingspan disadvantage. This is a big problem. Bring Wood off the bench with Hayes at C or AD at C.