Having decided to wait until midseason before making additional roster moves, what is the Lakers’ current roster’s ceiling and floor assuming they upgrade their starting small forward and backup center by the deadline?
By definition, a team’s ceiling happens when everything that could go right actually goes right. In the NBA, that means key players not only were fully healthy through the playoffs but many also enjoyed career best seasons.
By definition, a team’s floor happens when everything that could go wrong actually goes wrong. In the NBA, that means critical players were not only injured during the season but many also endured career worst seasons.
What makes projecting a ceiling and floor for next season’s Lakers squad so difficult is the team has made a decision to wait until midseason to address their glaring needs for a starting small forward and quality backup center.
Waiting until the trade deadline puts additional ‘pressure on the Lakers to trade for the ‘right players.’ If the Lakers traded during the offseason, they would still have a chance to correct any mistakes before the trade deadline.
Further complicating the situation, Jokic or Giannis could be available next summer if they do not sign extensions and the Lakers right now don’t even have matching salaries to legally trade for a superstar making $60 million.
That means the Lakers must convert most of their $40 million in expiring contracts to players with 2-year deals before the deadline so they can match salaries and trade for Jokic or Giannis if they’re available in summer 2026.
To reach their ceiling for the season and win the NBA Championship, the Lakers need to trade for two elite defenders like Andrew Wiggins and Robert Williams the sooner the better even if it costs a first round pick.
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LAKERS’ CURRENT CEILING IS ‘NBA CHAMPIONSHIP’
If the Lakers trade for a legitimate elite POA starting small forward and a quality rim protecting defensive backup center before the trade deadline, their ceiling for 2025–26 season would be the 2026 NBA Championship.
The Lakers desperately need an elite starting small forward like Andrew Wiggins, Dillon Brooks, or Nickeil Alexander-Walker and a quality backup center like Robert Williams III, Mitchell Robinson, or Jonathan Isaac.
While the Lakers would like to trade for Wiggins and Williams without giving up picks, they can still offer a first round pick swap for the former and second round pick for the later and still have 3 picks next summer.
Adding a pair of elite defensive players like Andrew Wiggins and Robert Williams would elevate the Lakers to legitimate championship contenders and make them among the favorites to win their 18th NBA championship.
Surrounding offense-first Big Three of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Austin Reaves with elite defenders like Marcus Smart, De’Andre Ayton, Andrew Wiggins, and Robert Williams dramatically upgrades the Lakers’ defense.
The Lakers would still need the help of the basketball gods to keep superstars Luka Doncic and LeBron James and key role players like Marcus Smart, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Gabe Vincent fully healthy and injury free.
They would also need career best redemption seasons from returnees Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, and Jaxson Hayes and new additions Adou Thiero, Jake LaRavia, De’Andre Ayton, and Marcus Smart.
If the Lakers can pull off a blockbuster midseason trade for an elite starting small forward and a quality rim protecting backup center, they can reach their ceiling for the 2025–26 season by winning the NBA Championship.
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LAKERS’ CURRENT FLOOR IS ‘PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT’
If the Lakers fail to trade for a legitimate elite point-of-attack starting small forward and quality rim protecting defensive backup center before the deadline, their floor for the season would then be the Play-In Tournament.
To become a legitimate championship contender, the Lakers need a massive injection of positional size and length and defensive skill and physicality at the starting small forward and backup center positions.
Moving forward with Rui Hachimura as the defensive starting small forward and Jaxson Hayes as the defensive backup center just does not make sense. Lakers must upgrade both positions to avoid the Play-In.
Nor is it guaranteed that De’Andre Ayton will be a better defender than Jaxson Hayes was as last year’s starter. Other than defensive rebounding, Hayes’ blocks and steals per minute played were better than Ayton’s.
If the only change the Lakers are planning for their starting lineup is replacing Jaxson Hayes with De’Andre Ayton, they may find the offense improved but the starting lineup defense may still be 28th in the league.
The Lakers are obviously trying to avoid giving up their one tradable first round pick to upgrade their current roster so they can offer three first round picks on draft day next summer in a mega trade for a superstar.
The problem is there are at least 8 teams in the West who can dominate the current Lakers’ roster with their size and physicality: the Thunder, Nuggets, Rockets, Mavericks, Timberwolves, Blazers, Clippers, and Warriors.
If they fail to pull off a blockbuster trade for an elite starting small forward and quality backup center to dramatically upgrade their front court defense, the Lakers’ floor for the season will be the Play-In Tournament.
Rui, for this team, is better than Wiggins. Time Lord is a broken watch one can’t rely on. Mitchell Robinson would be great but you’d need to trade a center to the Knicks somehow. Better off waiting until the deadline, anyhow, because this team…with Hayes starting…put together a great run of two way basketball that was only derailed by LeBron getting hurt. I’m thinking this group gets the whole season unless something goes seriously wrong. Otherwise it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to basically throw a puck away unless you’re getting back a player that fits so perfectly it’s be crazy not to make a trade. Lu Dort comes to mind. But you only mention has-been players. Ben Simmons,Time Lord, and, frankly, Smart has a decent shot of being one himself. I really like Mitchell Robinson but even he has barely been able to stay on the floor. We need guys who can play. Rui plays and plays as well as Wiggins. No need to trade for has-beens and glory day players.
Also I think you’re being unimaginative when it comes to next summer. Let’s use your floor/ceiling notion. If Reaves and Rui play well enough to garner big contracts AND one of Giannis or Jokic are somehow available that all plays into the Lakers hands. Y’see, we can trade 3 1st round picks in but one, single, solitary day: Draft Day 2026. Then we have to trade or use the 2026 pick. So it won’t be there after that. Additionally, because Draft Day happens before free agency and teams can negotiate with their own players prior to July, we’ll have a fair notion of what Reaves and Rui will be worth, they can be included in a Draft Day deal or used when free agency starts in a sign and trade. 2 impact players in deals that work for the team they’re going to and their internal timeline along with 2 (or 3 if it’s draft day) FRP’s can make a lot more happen than trying to band aid our way out of what doesn’t really even feel like much of a problem given that we haven’t even seen this team play a full season. We got a 3/4 version of Luka, no camp, and a team built for AD and LeBron and had to be retooled on the fly.
At any rate, I’m not seeing a midseason trade, not for any other reason other than that the Lakers definitely want to have as many picks as possible on Draft Day. Now…now if there’s a trade out there that brings back a FRP and an impact player then sign me up. I highly doubt that will happen.
Jamie, the problem you completely ignore is, if the Lakers do not make a midseason trade, they will have $40M in contracts expire and they will not have enough tradable contracts to make a trade for Giannis or Jokic if they do not sign extensions.
There has to be a consolidation trade either before the season or before the trade deadline. Can’t let those players walk with nothing in return and would be huge mistake to give any of them including Rui an extension for more money. Lakers would be fools to go all cap space for an offseason with no superstars available. Ain’t going to happen.
You write a good article Tom but you don’t have a grasp on the NBA today. After signing Luka to an extension those swaps don’t mean much. Desmond Bane cost 4 unprotected 1st round picks. Mikal Bridges took 5 first rounders. Neither have ever been an all star. That’s the price of business in today’s NBA. By the way the only person in the NBA universe that thinks Wiggins is an elite defender is you. He has never even made 3rd team all nba defense. Thats not elite. He’s been considered a good defender. But he’s not as good as he was a few years ago. You stated that the Lakers didn’t trade for him because they didn’t want to give up a first. Dan Wolke a writer I trust said they never were all that interested to begin with. It was click baiters that kept that story alive. As for Williams we can’t even trade for him. We are under the cap by only a million. Sending Gabe for him would push us over. And the Trailblazers don’t have the roster space or are far enough under the cap to absorb a 2nd player. By the way he will be a free agent and we couldn’t trade him summer anyway if that’s what you are thinking. If you want a contract to trade this summer extend Rui. He is a much better defender than you give him credit for. At least the Lakers think so but what do they know. Right?
Can’t Reply for some reason but new Comments work fine. Anyhow, you’re not fully grasping my point, which isn’t surprising because it’s not a trade. There will be one, single day in which the Lakers will have expiring contracts AND 3 First Round draft picks: Draft Day next summer. After that they only have 2 draft picks to offer and sign and trade options. Therefore, logic informs us the most likely day we’ll see trade action is on that day. After that it comes down to 3 things:
-How valuable and key to future success the Lakers think Reaves is vs. what the expected market will bear on July 1.
-Same goes for Rui.
-What quality players are available.
Because LeBron has not announced this as being his final season, and because I think he will do a farewell tour prior to retiring, there’s an 80+% chance he stays a Laker beyond this season. That possibility won’t sit well with some but that’s the most likely scenario, should we not hear about a retiring James. To say otherwise ignores so much Laker history and pattern of doing business it’s funny. Unless he retires, LeBron is definitely in play as our major signing next offseason.