Lakers keep telling us they’re all about the future. So should the second half be a testing ground? If so what should they be testing?My case for more aggressive staggering of Luka & LeBron’s minutes and why it could help both the short & long term 👇https://t.co/LUNHBZsqTk pic.twitter.com/YvATPfXlE7— Iztok Franko (@iztok_franko) February 18, 2026
FROM ABOVE ARTICLE:
Why the Dončić–James lineups are the Lakers’ biggest second-half question>
1-The big three… or a big two problem?
The first challenge in assessing the Lakers this season is not what we’ve seen, but rather what we haven’t. The superstar trio of Dončić, James, and Reaves, which should be the main strength of this top-heavy roster, has played only 10 games together. The Lakers won seven of those, which is a respectable mark, but the sample is tiny. The trio has shared the floor for just 152 minutes, or 322 non-garbage-time possessions.
For comparison, the Timberwolves trio of Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, and Julius Randle has logged 1,667 possessions together. Even the primary trios of other Western contenders in Oklahoma City, Denver, and San Antonio, all of whom have dealt with injuries as well, have played 500 possessions or more.
However, even in this small sample, the numbers for lineups with Dončić, Reaves, and James on the floor together are not what you would want to see from your three best players.
Source: Cleaning the Glass
Yes, those numbers are skewed by several blowout losses the Lakers were involved in, and more than half of the sample, 182 possessions, comes from the old starting lineup with Deandre Ayton and Rui Hachimura, a group Redick and his staff have since moved away from. Marcus Smart will likely be the fifth starter after the break, and we’ll see whether that can push the starting lineup into positive net rating territory.
The key challenge, however, is not necessarily how to make lineups with all three superstars work, but rather how to make units built around just two of them, Dončić and James, function. The sample size for those combinations is much larger, and as you can see from the lineup data, the results have been equally concerning. In 1,416 possessions with Dončić and James sharing the floor, the Lakers posted a –4.2 point differential. Even removing the 322 possessions that also included Reaves, the number only improves to –3.2 across 1,094 possessions.
Most lineup subsets featuring Dončić and James have posted a negative net rating, largely because of poor defensive results. That reinforces the growing realization that, at this point in their careers, they are not a good defensive fit. The overlap in their strengths and weaknesses has often been more limiting than additive.
2-Splitting the aces: going all-offense with Dončić, all-defense with James?
The problem of building a functional defense around Dončić, a 41-year-old James, Reaves, and a below-average defensive center is probably not fully solvable. But can it be mitigated?
Looking at the lineup splits in the first section, what immediately stands out is that lineups featuring just one of the three on the floor, with the other two off, have generally been positive. And the Dončić–Reaves duo was dominant when sharing the floor during the early-season run. Then, during Reaves’ prolonged absence, we saw the Lakers try to simply survive their opening minutes, often flipping the script later by dominating opposing bench units with unconventional, frequently bigger lineups led by James.
Source: Cleaning the Glass
Most lineups featuring one of Dončić or James on the floor, with the other off, have been positive. For clarification, those samples include possessions alongside Reaves. That suggests staggering Dončić and James more aggressively might be worth a try.
If we break it down further by pairing each with a big man or the team’s best wing defenders, a few additional insights emerge on how to better optimize the rotations in the second half of the season. Most lineups with Dončić on the floor and James off have been very good offensively, so leaning into all-offense units built around a lob threat in Jaxson Hayes, surrounded by shooting, could be another viable strategy. James-led, non-Dončić units, on the other hand, have mostly won their minutes by leaning into size and defense. Dončić lineups featuring Marcus Smart have been great, but the ones with Jarred Vanderbilt have largely been a struggle, often resulting in Vanderbilt taking open corner threes. In contrast, James units with Vanderbilt have been dominant defensively.
Prioritizing spacing and shooting around Dončić, while going all-in on size and bully-ball with James, and figuring out the best way to integrate Reaves as the glue, is something we could, and probably should, see more of in the second part of the season.
3-Breaking up Dončić, James, Hachimura minutes
Dončić and James struggling together defensively can partly be attributed to the fact that they essentially occupy the same defensive role. Both are best suited to guard bigger forwards in lower-activity help assignments rather than chasing guards and faster wings or applying point-of-attack pressure. The additional challenge for Redick is that his fourth-best offensive player, Rui Hachimura, fits a very similar defensive archetype. The numbers back that up. In 541 possessions with Dončić, James, and Hachimura on the floor together, the Lakers’ defense was virtually non-existent, allowing 120.0 points per 100 possessions. That sample includes 187 possessions from the old starting five of Dončić, Reaves, Hachimura, James, and Ayton, which was even worse defensively.
Source: Cleaning the Glass
After spending nearly half the season trying to avoid the obvious, Redick ultimately convinced Hachimura to accept a bench role. As you can see from the chart below, they not only broke up the starting unit but also reduced the amount of time the trio spends on the floor together, with Hachimura thriving as an off-the-bench scorer.
Dončić–James–Hachimura shared minutes (source: pbp stats)
4-Luke Kennard and the value of shooting around Dončić
I mentioned the idea of the Lakers leaning into all-offense Dončić lineups in the second section. The trade deadline acquisition of Luke Kennard complicates Redick’s job when it comes to integrating another below-average defender into the rotation. On the other hand, it gives him another elite shooter and floor spacer.
I’ve been doing lineup analysis for Dončić-led teams over the last couple of years, and one of the consistent, unsurprising trends that keeps showing up is this: surrounding Dončić with a rim-rolling vertical threat and a shooter who can stretch the floor and create space for him to operate is a recipe for elite offense. This year’s Lakers sample is no different. For the purposes of this lineup analysis exercise, I subjectively classified shooters as players opposing teams consistently guard as perimeter threats: Reaves, Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, Dalton Knecht, and now Kennard.
Source: pbp stats lineup data
Two things stand out in the results. First, the sample of lineups featuring Dončić with no, or very limited, outside shooting is quite large, and those units struggled offensively. Second, there is also a significant sample of Dončić lineups with one or two shooters on the floor, and those groups produced elite offense, scoring 120 points per 100 possessions or more.
If we dig further into the subset of this data by isolating lineups with Dončić on the floor and James off, the numbers become even more encouraging for groups featuring at least one shooter.
Source: pbp stats lineup data
There is one caveat with this data: Reaves has been one of the shooters in many of these lineups, and Dončić–Reaves combinations have generally been very positive this season. That said, lineups featuring the other shooters from my list have also been very good offensively.
5–A testing ground for the summer rebuild?
Before wrapping up, I want to emphasize one point: the goal of this exercise is not to add fuel to the Dončić vs. James discourse we often see on social media. What James is doing at his age is unprecedented and remarkable to watch, and he has been a driving force behind several Lakers wins this season.
There is also more nuance behind the lineup data. Some of the current splits are heavily influenced by a few of the Lakers’ collapses, as well as early-season struggles when James was still working his way back after a long layoff. Three-point shooting variance, particularly the Lakers’ poor accuracy from deep in Dončić–James lineups, is another significant factor influencing those results.
However, the struggles of Dončić–James lineups are hard to ignore and have, in my opinion, been one of the defining storylines of the season so far. The sample is large enough, along with several other warning signs, such as a high opponent corner-three frequency, weak rim protection, and poor transition defense, to suggest that making these lineups work will require significant adjustments in the second half of the season. More aggressive staggering of their minutes is something worth exploring.
That approach would also give the Lakers’ coaching staff and front office more opportunity to test different combinations around Dončić and Reaves. Reaves’ return to the starting lineup and expanded role should provide a boost, but it also adds another delicate piece to balance. All signals from the Lakers so far suggest they are willing to sacrifice some short-term results for long-term clarity. Viewed through that lens, maximizing Dončić–Reaves minutes across different lineup configurations should be a priority. The data from those experiments could offer valuable insight into how to build the team around them in the fast-approaching post-LeBron era.