Another disappointment, this time on the final play
The Lakers’ slide continues. After a loss to a top-tier opponent against the Celtics, they had a chance to redeem themselves against a team closer to their weight class. Instead, despite Orlando missing two of its top three players, the Lakers still came up short, falling 110–109 to the Magic.
This time it wasn’t a blowout loss, but a clutch breakdown. The game was lost on a poorly executed final play with the outcome on the line.
With this loss, the Lakers closed their eight-game homestand at a flat 4–4 and slipped to sixth in the Western Conference instead of climbing the standings.
Today’s notes:
The final possession as a reflection of the Lakers’ offensive disconnect (VIDEO)
Luka’s struggles
With the offense struggling, still not enough attention to detail, especially late
More evidence the old starting five doesn’t fit (VIDEO)
A surprisingly deliberate attempt to punish switching through Ayton (VIDEO)
1-The final possession as a reflection of the Lakers’ offensive disconnect (VIDEO)
The Lakers had a chance to win the game on the final possession, coming out of a timeout with six seconds left. The play was drawn up for Luka Dončić to get an open look off a pin-down screen. Dončić did get it for a split second, but uncharacteristically hesitated and then gave up the ball to LeBron James for a difficult, contested fadeaway three that never had much of a chance.
The final play was the culmination of a rough offensive night for the Lakers, and especially for Dončić, following a pattern we have seen in the last couple of games. None of the three stars were ever really in rhythm, taking turns trying to be aggressive, but also trying to defer to each other.
The result is that, apart from Dončić’s dominant performance against the Clippers, we haven’t seen any of the big three fully in rhythm and at the top of their game in recent matchups. And that proved costly on the final play, where a lack of confidence and comfort showed up as hesitation and a botched execution.
2–Luka’s struggles
Dončić will have to take the blame for another subpar offensive game and, consequently, for the loss. He’s the main engine, the player who takes the most shots, and his shotmaking simply wasn’t good enough last night. Dončić did have a strong playmaking performance, finishing with 15 assists and only two turnovers, but his 8-of-24 shooting, 2-of-10 from three, and five costly missed free throws were not good enough.
Dončić is a rhythm and confidence player, and neither seems to be fully there since he came back from his hamstring injury. After winning Player of the Month for his outstanding play in January, he is averaging just 24.8 points on 40 percent shooting in six February games. That average is skewed by the 10-point outing in 16 minutes before he injured his hamstring against the Sixers, but you still cannot escape the feeling that the games have felt like a slog recently.
The inconsistency — the up-and-down swings between dominant stretches and dry spells — seems more frequent than what we have seen from Dončić in the past. Some of it can probably be attributed to the weird, transitional roster and season. But if Dončić wants to be in the MVP and best-player-in-the-league conversations, he needs to deliver more consistently, even in a non-optimal environment. He has the talent to do so.
Another predictable struggle for Dončić, and to a lesser extent Austin Reaves, is something I wrote about back in January: the NBA adjusting the level of physicality allowed and the resulting drop in free-throw rate.
The NBA’s Free-Throw Decline and What It Means for Luka Dončić and the Lakers
Iztok Franko
·
Jan 15
The NBA’s Free-Throw Decline and What It Means for Luka Dončić and the Lakers
Yesterday, Tom Haberstroh published a detailed piece on Yahoo about the NBA’s sudden free throw decline and the league-wide scoring dip that has followed. It immediately caught my attention, not just because I’ve been following Tom’s work on this topic since 2024, but because this has been sitting in the back of my mind …
Dončić and Reaves were living at the free-throw line earlier in the season, but their free-throw rates have dropped, and I thought last night was a good example of that. There were several attempts to initiate contact without getting the call they felt they deserved, which led to off-balance misses and visible frustration. Both will need to adapt and accept the new reality.
3–With the offense struggling, still not enough attention to detail, especially late
The winning formula for the Lakers this season has mostly been just-good-enough defense paired with good-to-great offense. In recent games, however, despite JJ Redick stating that the effort and defense have been good enough, the Lakers have not found ways to overcome their offensive struggles.
Last night they managed to execute the key part of their defensive plan: keep the Magic in a half-court game and capitalize on their poor shooting. Orlando shot just 6 of 28 from three, a big reason the Lakers were still in the game despite their own offensive struggles. But there were still too many miscommunications on rotations and other breakdowns, especially down the stretch.
The Magic scored on their last three possessions, a sequence that featured:
Paolo Banchero scoring and drawing a foul on Deandre Ayton in isolation for an and-one
A miscommunication between Rui Hachimura and Ayton on who to pick up in transition, resulting in Ayton being late in Banchero’s pick-and-roll coverage and LeBron James overhelping off Desmond Bane, who then drained the spot-up three
Austin Reaves failing to box out Anthony Black, allowing him to get a hand on a contested rebound against three Lakers defenders, with the ball eventually ending up in Wendell Carter Jr.’s hands under the rim for the game-winning field goal
The last missed box-out was crucial, but it was not the only one. The Magic held an overall rebounding edge, resulting in seven more scoring opportunities in a game decided by one possession.
4-More evidence the old starting five doesn’t fit (VIDEO)
Ayton had a very good scoring game (more on that in my next point), which earned him extended minutes, including in crunch time — something we have not seen much of lately. However, Redick did not close with his new starting five featuring Smart, opting instead for the old group with Hachimura.
It is hard to question the decision to go for more shooting with the offense struggling, particularly after Hachimura made a clutch three-pointer with just over two minutes left. Seeing the Hachimura–Ayton pairing together again down the stretch, failing to rotate properly or even pick up the right assignment while setting the defense after a free throw, was another reminder of why the old starting unit, with those two on top of its other limitations, is so hard to trust defensively.
5-A surprisingly deliberate attempt to punish switching through Ayton (VIDEO)
I mentioned Ayton’s big scoring game. He finished with 21 points and 13 rebounds, the kind of monster 20–10 output we saw far more frequently earlier in the season.
The Magic tried different coverages early, but reverted to switching after Ayton caught and finished a couple of lobs from Dončić and James. If there is a positive takeaway from this otherwise disappointing loss, it is the way the Lakers — and specifically Dončić — trusted and fed Ayton to punish mismatches. Dončić can be difficult to convince in these situations, as he often sees attacking the big himself as the better option (which, when he is at his best, usually is). But in this one, he made a deliberate effort to reward Ayton with precise passes after he sealed the smaller defender inside.
Ayton’s experience has been mostly disappointing, but his ability to score and punish switches was one reason I was perhaps delusionally optimistic that his pairing with Dončić could work out, at least offensively. The Lakers do not have many better alternatives than playing Ayton for the remainder of the season, so why not lean more intentionally into his strengths?
FROM ABOVE ARTICLE:
Another disappointment, this time on the final play
The Lakers’ slide continues. After a loss to a top-tier opponent against the Celtics, they had a chance to redeem themselves against a team closer to their weight class. Instead, despite Orlando missing two of its top three players, the Lakers still came up short, falling 110–109 to the Magic.
This time it wasn’t a blowout loss, but a clutch breakdown. The game was lost on a poorly executed final play with the outcome on the line.
With this loss, the Lakers closed their eight-game homestand at a flat 4–4 and slipped to sixth in the Western Conference instead of climbing the standings.
Today’s notes:
The final possession as a reflection of the Lakers’ offensive disconnect (
VIDEO)
Luka’s struggles
With the offense struggling, still not enough attention to detail, especially late
More evidence the old starting five doesn’t fit (
VIDEO)
A surprisingly deliberate attempt to punish switching through Ayton (
VIDEO)
1-The final possession as a reflection of the Lakers’ offensive disconnect (
VIDEO)
The Lakers had a chance to win the game on the final possession, coming out of a timeout with six seconds left. The play was drawn up for Luka Dončić to get an open look off a pin-down screen. Dončić did get it for a split second, but uncharacteristically hesitated and then gave up the ball to LeBron James for a difficult, contested fadeaway three that never had much of a chance.
The final play was the culmination of a rough offensive night for the Lakers, and especially for Dončić, following a pattern we have seen in the last couple of games. None of the three stars were ever really in rhythm, taking turns trying to be aggressive, but also trying to defer to each other.
The result is that, apart from Dončić’s dominant performance against the Clippers, we haven’t seen any of the big three fully in rhythm and at the top of their game in recent matchups. And that proved costly on the final play, where a lack of confidence and comfort showed up as hesitation and a botched execution.
2–Luka’s struggles
Dončić will have to take the blame for another subpar offensive game and, consequently, for the loss. He’s the main engine, the player who takes the most shots, and his shotmaking simply wasn’t good enough last night. Dončić did have a strong playmaking performance, finishing with 15 assists and only two turnovers, but his 8-of-24 shooting, 2-of-10 from three, and five costly missed free throws were not good enough.
Dončić is a rhythm and confidence player, and neither seems to be fully there since he came back from his hamstring injury. After winning Player of the Month for his outstanding play in January, he is averaging just 24.8 points on 40 percent shooting in six February games. That average is skewed by the 10-point outing in 16 minutes before he injured his hamstring against the Sixers, but you still cannot escape the feeling that the games have felt like a slog recently.
The inconsistency — the up-and-down swings between dominant stretches and dry spells — seems more frequent than what we have seen from Dončić in the past. Some of it can probably be attributed to the weird, transitional roster and season. But if Dončić wants to be in the MVP and best-player-in-the-league conversations, he needs to deliver more consistently, even in a non-optimal environment. He has the talent to do so.
Another predictable struggle for Dončić, and to a lesser extent Austin Reaves, is something I wrote about back in January: the NBA adjusting the level of physicality allowed and the resulting drop in free-throw rate.
The NBA’s Free-Throw Decline and What It Means for Luka Dončić and the Lakers
Iztok Franko
·
Jan 15
The NBA’s Free-Throw Decline and What It Means for Luka Dončić and the Lakers
Yesterday, Tom Haberstroh published a detailed piece on Yahoo about the NBA’s sudden free throw decline and the league-wide scoring dip that has followed. It immediately caught my attention, not just because I’ve been following Tom’s work on this topic since 2024, but because this has been sitting in the back of my mind …
Dončić and Reaves were living at the free-throw line earlier in the season, but their free-throw rates have dropped, and I thought last night was a good example of that. There were several attempts to initiate contact without getting the call they felt they deserved, which led to off-balance misses and visible frustration. Both will need to adapt and accept the new reality.
3–With the offense struggling, still not enough attention to detail, especially late
The winning formula for the Lakers this season has mostly been just-good-enough defense paired with good-to-great offense. In recent games, however, despite JJ Redick stating that the effort and defense have been good enough, the Lakers have not found ways to overcome their offensive struggles.
Last night they managed to execute the key part of their defensive plan: keep the Magic in a half-court game and capitalize on their poor shooting. Orlando shot just 6 of 28 from three, a big reason the Lakers were still in the game despite their own offensive struggles. But there were still too many miscommunications on rotations and other breakdowns, especially down the stretch.
The Magic scored on their last three possessions, a sequence that featured:
Paolo Banchero scoring and drawing a foul on Deandre Ayton in isolation for an and-one
A miscommunication between Rui Hachimura and Ayton on who to pick up in transition, resulting in Ayton being late in Banchero’s pick-and-roll coverage and LeBron James overhelping off Desmond Bane, who then drained the spot-up three
Austin Reaves failing to box out Anthony Black, allowing him to get a hand on a contested rebound against three Lakers defenders, with the ball eventually ending up in Wendell Carter Jr.’s hands under the rim for the game-winning field goal
The last missed box-out was crucial, but it was not the only one. The Magic held an overall rebounding edge, resulting in seven more scoring opportunities in a game decided by one possession.
4-More evidence the old starting five doesn’t fit (
VIDEO)
Ayton had a very good scoring game (more on that in my next point), which earned him extended minutes, including in crunch time — something we have not seen much of lately. However, Redick did not close with his new starting five featuring Smart, opting instead for the old group with Hachimura.
It is hard to question the decision to go for more shooting with the offense struggling, particularly after Hachimura made a clutch three-pointer with just over two minutes left. Seeing the Hachimura–Ayton pairing together again down the stretch, failing to rotate properly or even pick up the right assignment while setting the defense after a free throw, was another reminder of why the old starting unit, with those two on top of its other limitations, is so hard to trust defensively.
5-A surprisingly deliberate attempt to punish switching through Ayton (
VIDEO)
I mentioned Ayton’s big scoring game. He finished with 21 points and 13 rebounds, the kind of monster 20–10 output we saw far more frequently earlier in the season.
The Magic tried different coverages early, but reverted to switching after Ayton caught and finished a couple of lobs from Dončić and James. If there is a positive takeaway from this otherwise disappointing loss, it is the way the Lakers — and specifically Dončić — trusted and fed Ayton to punish mismatches. Dončić can be difficult to convince in these situations, as he often sees attacking the big himself as the better option (which, when he is at his best, usually is). But in this one, he made a deliberate effort to reward Ayton with precise passes after he sealed the smaller defender inside.
Ayton’s experience has been mostly disappointing, but his ability to score and punish switches was one reason I was perhaps delusionally optimistic that his pairing with Dončić could work out, at least offensively. The Lakers do not have many better alternatives than playing Ayton for the remainder of the season, so why not lean more intentionally into his strengths?