5 THINGS

Well, that was quite a season. Seismic trades, surprise playoff exits, devastating injuries and a new champion crowned. 9th different champ in the 12 years under Adam Silver (8 in 30 under Stern, I believe). Now comes the mania, the endless clickbait articles proclaiming this master trade can reshape the course of human history if you are willing to suspend all logic and disbelief! For my part, I expect a fairly quiet Laker summer. I’ll be content if we retain Dorian Finney-Smith and fill the center position with a suitable compliment to Luka’s playing style. Still, everyone will try and scream and yell about how anyone can replicate the Thunder’s blueprint for winning and I’m just here to tell you now that’s a giant, steaming pile of…

Dookie.

1. Replicating the Thunder’s path to success is impossible. It was forged in failure, tempered with the kind of patience rarely seen nowadays in pro sport, and was not borne of any single defining philosophy other than not wasting money. From the moment they chose cap space over James Harden and watched their first drafted core walk away one by one, or get traded for the current core, the Thunder have been a model in the one thing most sport analysts and fans seem to abhor: patience. You could argue that moss was growing on the Thunder after Russell Westbrook asked out but all that did was put the final nail in the coffin of the old Thunder that was built around Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka and Harden. Of that core, only Durant and Ibaka have won rings. Sam Presti, and the Thunder ownership, should be commended for the patience and logic they’ve deployed over the last 10 years to get to this exact moment. So, unless you have the organizational patience to wade through several losing seasons, not trade draft picks out of habit, and patiently build a complimentary and affordable roster, nobody will be replicating the success of the Thunder the way they did it any time soon.
2. Same goes for Indiana. I can’t count the number of fake trades I’ve seen here proclaiming that the Pacers have NO CHOICE WHATSOEVER but to trade Myles Turner for a couple of feeble draft picks and 3 broken down players. They ignored all of that noise, also chose to move on from the same superstar talent known as Paul George and, in doing so, paved the way for all of their current success. Trading Sabonis and George were the two catalysts for the Pacers to assemble the roster of talent that they have. They kept the defensive specialist who can, sometimes, hit a three and built around the electric Haliburton with long, gritty, defense first players who can also sometimes hit a three. The defense on both teams, came first and defined their team identity. And, yes, sometimes you need to make a three. Certainly not all the time, though.
3. The three point revolution stalls out in the NBA Finals. Again. Every season you hear it all regular season long…”the three point revolution is here to stay!”, “we need more three point shooting!”, “that guy only plays defense and can’t hit the three…” and so on. Yet every time the playoffs, and especially the Finals, roll around suddenly the midrange game and scoring in the paint return to dominance. I get it, and I even agree to a point: sometimes you need to make a three pointer. But to rely on it as the penultimate offensive option is as foolhardy as relying on backdoor cuts and lobs as your path to a banner. In the playoffs, those long misses lead to opponent fastbreak points and those run you right out of a series. The Lakers saw that first hand as we shot the 5th most three pointers/game at 36.4 our 36.6% accuracy was good for 14th…out of 16 playoff teams. The Timberwolves turned that futility into fastbreak points, often at the rim. The Lakers need to have a better balance on offense as we struggled to get to the rim in the playoffs when the lob game stalled out and our paint drivers were hobbled. The Thunder do not rely on the three ball, when it falls for them they generally blow you out. But they don’t need it to fall, they’re dominant defensively and have several guys who can attack the rim. Sometimes they make a three. More often and not, they pass it up for a better shot.
4. Fewer max contracts. This one is why the Lakers can never be expected to follow the blueprint of the Thunder, they do it The Lakers Way which is big, splashy…and expensive. OKC has zero players on max contracts after Shai who signed his back in 2022-23 when he had fewer than 6 years of NBA experience under his belt, hence the $35 mil (which looks like an absolute bargain and he will definitely make a ton more on his net extension). That alone allowed OKC to retain key drafted players or sign elite role players like Alex Caruso and Isiah Hartenstein. Holmgren is a particularly cheap and effective player (also soon to be due for an extension) who came even cheaper due to past injuries and slow start to his NBA career. The Lakers aren’t ever going to follow this path because they never draft young players if they can avoid it in any way. They trade for their stars, they’re homegrown a lot more rarely. This means we’re often shipping out our own elite role-players, or letting them walk for nothing and having to reform a team every few seasons around one or two massive contracts. In the modern NBA that’s a tight path to navigate smoothly. Rob hasn’t really proved he’s capable of it as he dismantled the team he basically inherited from Magic that won a banner.
5. Luck. Especially in the healthy players department. We just saw how one injury can completely alter a series (but go ahead and tell that to the Bad Boy Pistons who certainly didn’t put an asterisk next to their win against us when our guys all had bad hamstring pulls, a title is a title). The Lakers haven’t had the best luck but they also haven’t maxed out the resources or capabilities of a truly modern training staff and so, with the new owner, perhaps that could start to tilt back in our favor sooner than later. A healthy team is a good team and OKC had good health at the right time and it showed. they also hustled the hardest, played with the most grit, and adapted better than anyone else. So, while luck is certainly apart of it, so, too is toughness and tenacity.
   
   In short I don’t expect the Lakers to be able to replicate anything the Thunder have done and anyone who says otherwise is really just full of it. The Lakers need to do it their way, within the confines of the current CBA. They need to retain their current key contributors and improve around the margins. A lot of money was tied up in players that didn’t really play in the playoffs (Kleber) or have much of an impact (Vincent, Vando, Knecht, Hayes). Some of the guys who were ineffectual didn’t get much run and some didn’t do much with what they got. That’s something for the staff to mull over and figure out. A full training camp with Luka and LeBron and some chemistry could go a long way. Internal improvement from guys like Knecht and Hayes on defense or Vando and Goodwin on offense could go a long way to closing some of the roster gaps we currently have. Regardless, whatever moves we make they won’t be seismic like the Luka trade unless we trade Luka or LeBron which we all know ain’t happening. Getting Luka was our “all in” move.

Took me a couple days to get to an objective place on this series.  There was a lot the Lakers did right, plenty they did wrong, and some things you chalk up to bad luck.  All in all, only thing that matters is that the 2024-25 NBA season is done for the Los Angeles lakers and they can

Took me a couple days to get to an objective place on this series.  There was a lot the Lakers did right, plenty they did wrong, and some things you chalk up to bad luck.  All in all, only thing that matters is that the 2024-25 NBA season is done for the Los Angeles Lakers and they can only look on in envy and frustration as the playoffs continue without them. So let’s dig in to what did the Lakers in.

1. Cohesion, or lack thereof. Post Luka trade the Lakers went on a run that had them rocketing up the standings and ultimately paved the way to the #3 seed. This led to a mirage, of sorts. Our offense and defense looked great, for a stretch, and then injuries and the league catching up to what the Lakers were doing brought it back down to Earth. In the end, time was not the ally of the Lakers as when it came down to displaying elite execution, focus and determination we weren’t able to fall back on cohesion or chemistry to give us a little boost in the face of united and well-prepared Minnesota squad. The Coaching staff and players did as good a job as one could probably expect to fast track all of that but like any relationship that has worth you can’t speed up that process and expect great, consistent results. Everyone but Randle and DiVencenzo had been a T’Wolf for at least 2 seasons. At least everyone that had a real impact. That chemistry and trust was on full display in this series.
2. Ant Man outplayed LeBron and Luka. Down the stretch of games the Timberwolves knew and trusted that Anthony Edwards would have the ball in his hands and would make the right play. The Lakers faltered in the last 5 minutes while the Timberwolves held steady and executed. This theme played out in every single game except game 2 where Minnesota still got the shots they wanted and when, they just missed. Edwards was a force on both ends and had more than enough in the tank to close out every single game. Luka and LeBron, by comparison, looked tired and old (or both in LeBron’s case). Some of that came from a true lack of an elite supporting cast and some of that came from the elite defense the T’Wolves played but at the end of the day Anthony Edwards looked ready for the playoff primetime moments more than Luka and LeBron did. Coach Reddick touched on this topic in his season-ending comments about conditioning but that was bit overly simplistic to my taste, more on all of that in a bit, though.
3. Timberwolves had a team, we almost had a starting five. Depth was a massive issue in this series and the Lakers lacked it up and down the roster. With Gabe Vincent basically being a non-factor we only had Luka as a PG. Hayes played his was off the floor which left Finney-Smith to man the five against Gobert and the rebounding numbers there aren’t pretty as The French Rejection ran roughshod over the Lakers front court all series long. In 143 total minutes played Gobert grabbed 49 rebounds. By comparison, LeBron (who played 204) only grabbed 45 and the Timberwolves outrebounded us by 24 for the series. That’s actually a testament to the Lakers smaller players committing to rebounding because it could have been a lot worse. It’s hard to say what the Lakers could have changed up rotation-wise because so few players played a meaningful role and the onus of winning was put on Luka, LeBron and Austin Reaves. 8 players on the Timberwolves played 100+ minutes and only 5 Lakers played over a 100 and they all played a minimum of 170 (Dorian Finney-Smith). LeBron and Luka each played 204 and 208 minutes respectively. Only Edwards crakced 200 minutes for Minnesota. We simply were not deep enough or the coach didn’t trust enough for us to truly compete.
4. J.J. Reddick got out-coached. Whether it was his choice to play 5 guys for 24 straight NBA minutes, his lack of trust in his bench, or the predictable offense we ran the Lakers looked behind the 8 ball in almost every area of the game. Gone was almost any off-ball cuts/team movement or sets designed to generate lobs that had been a huge part of our offensive package in the regular season. Minny was ready for the open threes our defense was designed to allow, another issue with a regular season stratagem that not’s a good idea for the playoffs. Toss in him losing his cool on the court, in post game interviews and evidently in the locker room and you have a massive learning experience we can only hope he improves upon vastly next time. I think Coach Reddick did a fantastic job in the regular season. I’d give him a B+/A- for navigating the rigors of the 82 game grind, incorporating Luka, losing AD, and still managing the 3 seed. He was slow to adapt, made really bad “from the gut” calls (there really is no explanation or defense for playing LeBron James 24 straight NBA minutes, of course he’s not going to ask out…c’mon man…) and seemed a little over-whelmed, in general. The good news is he basically owned up to all of it in his season-ending comments by stating several times he needs to be better. He’s 100% right about that.
5. Health was huge. Minny looked relatively healthy. The Lakers did not. With the news coming out that Reaves was playing through a sprained left toe, LeBron being 40+ and nursing a sore groin, and Luka’s calves and overall shortened conditioning build up, the Lakers had a huge issue with having enough steam to play complete game. Vando never seemed to get his legs under him this season as he came back from surgeries on both feet and still ended up as one of our best rebounders on a per minute basis. Toss in the choice to play the same 5 guys for 24 straight minutes and not really even trying to use his bench and the Lakers were really in situation where they had to execute perfectly just to give themselves a real shot. Health is funny, though, hard to control or predict. Still, it was a huge factor in the Lakers early playoff exit.

Lots to think about for the Lakers. I think LeBron James miiiight opt out of his player option but I’m not 100% certain he will. If he does that opens up a TON of potential doors (depending on the amount, it certainly will not be for the vet minimum but it could maybe be as much as 5-10 million…maybe…?). The center position is a huge issue as is the back up guard positions, both of them. Dalton Knecht was a playoff non-factor on account of his defense and inability to hit a shot in meaningful minutes. Jordan Goodwin, too (the Lakers have a Team Option on him). We’ll get into the numbers of the offseason in a different post but the bottom line is the Lakers are going to have some money to play with, some team options to navigate (DFS has one, as well as LBJ) and a new superstar to build around. Should be fun to see what happens next.

The Lakers did what was needed to control their destiny and end up as the 3rd seed. They have a date with the 6th seeded Minnesota Timberwolves. It’s safe to say that there won’t be any easy roads to a title, especially in the loaded western conference, but facing the Timberwolves early is probably for the best. I’d rather face a young team early, before they maybe win a series or two and start playing above their heads. Defense and an efficient offense are the keys to winning in the playoffs so let’s get into it.

1. Healthy get you wealthy. The week off for a team featuring the oldest player in the league (whom we rely on extensively) is a boon from the basketball gods. LeBron, Reaves, Luka, Hayes, DFS, Rui and Vando have all missed games for maintenance over the last month and getting those players off their feet and into some treatment is huge. Especially LeBron and Luka but anyone who can maybe get over a nagging injury or a persistent bruise. Hayes in particular could stand to get over the finger injury he has which is why I suspect his free throw % has dropped off a cliff of late. Getting as many guys as right as possible is a gift the Lakers have not had in some time.
2. Time for planning. Being that it’s Coach Reddick’s maiden voyage into the playoffs it will be interesting to see how he plays the matchups, adjustments and counter-moves that often define a playoff series. Coaching takes on a new dimension in the playoffs and I’m excited to see what the coach and his staff come up with. Having not one but two generational talents to run the offense, call out coverages and slow the game down for the whole team is a luxury most coaches can only dream of. Matching up against the Timberwolves is a great first test.
3. Luke, LeBron and Reaves. Let’s not get anything twisted: we’re going exactly as far as these three players can carry us. We need for the hot shooting Luka showed the last few games to continue, we need LeBron to continue to captain the defense at an elite level, and we need Reaves to continue to assert himself and be the best 3rd option in the NBA. If these three guys are all rolling pretty consistently I like our chances against anyone.
4. X Factors. I’d say the health and impact of Mike Conley on the Timberwolves along with how Randle plays are probably the 2 biggest X Factors for the Timberwolves. For the Lakers it’s their bench. Who among Vincent, DFS, Vando, Knecht and maybe Goodwin can step up and deliver under the bright lights of the NBA playoffs? My bet is that Vincent ends up being a stabilizing force, for the most part, and that the true X Factors end up being Vando and Goodwin. If those two can combine for 10+ points and the stat stuffing they do on D we’re in good shape. I’m not expecting a huge role for Dalton, honestly. Who knows, all sorts of weird can happen in a 7 game series. Just ask Lonnie Walker IV.
5. Defense shall lead the way. The old adage proves true every postseason: defense wins championships. If the lakers can rediscover that elite, defenders on a string vibe we had post-Luka trade but pre-LeBron groin tweak I like our chances against anyone in either conference. Slip much below that and the cracks in the foundation will be showing and we’re going to be in for a tough slog. So here’s hoping we defend at an elite level and score effectively and efficiently en route to banner #18!

Fresh off a 4 game road trip in which they lost every game and then back home into a back-to-back it would have been easy to forgive the Lakers for losing what can only be described as a trap game. No meaningful stars healthy on the Spurs (sorry CP3), 4 games in 5 days (including travel from the Mile High City) and nearly a whole rotation’s worth of injured players the Lakers could have been forgiven for penciling in the loss and laying an egg. They did not. They took care of business like a team intent on competing for a banner would do. They set about taking care of business.

1. Lakers won even though Luka couldn’t throw it in the ocean. He scored a couple baskets early and a couple baskets late but in between was an ocean of basketball that Luka couldn’t throw the ball into. Still, he played tremendous defense (3 steals and a block), greased the offensive wheels (14 assists), and rebounded well enough to come up one short of a triple-double (you guessed it…9). I’m pretty sure the Slovenian Sensation would have loved to have shot better but will take the win. Every. Single. Time. Luka’s gravity is an offense creating machine unto itself so just having him on the floor helped others score buckets to bolster the superstar.
2. Reaves is a legit star now. Nigh untouchable has been the front office credo and we’re all seeing why on a nightly basis. His ability to get into the seems and cause havoc and easy buckets or score his own is looking better and better every season. His defense has improved and his handle has become pretty lethal. Reaves slots in well with all of our line ups, big and small, and continues to have a high impact even when playing with Luka and LeBron. When one sits, Reaves amps it up appropriately. Those are incredible skillsets that aren’t really teachable. he really has an elite feel and IQ for the game and his physical gifts and skills are just catching up to that now. Next season, with a whole summer and camp? Watch out.
3. Jordan Goodwin needs a standard contract…stat. No offense to either Alex Len or Cam Reddish buuuuuuut…one of you fellers has got to go. My vote is Len but I think that, based on current roster construction, it will be Cam which is unfortunate because he won’t be eligible to join a playoff roster now. Still, we’re gonna need Goodwin in the playoffs and it’s hard to see us letting he and Hayes slip away this summer. Retaining at least one of them should be a top priority for the team and, if LeBron chooses to play next season, I could see him offering to take a very, very slight pay cut to get that done (he offered as much this season but not much came of it). Goodwin is the guard version of Vando, maybe a little less “dawg” in him as Vando is quick to step up for his teammates (he also is signed here for the next 3 seasons so he feels safe, as well). Goodwin is scrappy, energetic and an excellent defender. He’s making his shots right now which is gravy on this team and has allowed us to better withstand these late season injuries. Needs to be on the playoff roster, no other way to put it.
4. Dorian Finney-Smith. I don’t say enough about this dude and it’s high time that changed. When DFS is out, the defense takes a huge step backwards. When DFS is hitting his shots, the offense becomes even more un-guardable. He, along with Goodwin, Vando and Vincent, is one of our best defenders and is excellent at calling out coverages and screens. He’s strong, long and fast. lakers Fans have heard of these fabled “three and D” players but DFS is the first one to truly fit the bill and earn the name in purple and gold other than Hachimura.
5. Home cooking. The Lakers need to keep pushing and try and get the best possible home court advantage. They play really well at Crypto this season (27-7), they shoot more free throws at home (24.5 vs. 21.8 on the road) and who doesn’t like downtown LA to be rocking after a win? In an odd twist to this logic, Luka shoots better on the road than at home (47.6% on the road vs. 41% at home) but I stand by my assertion. The rest of the Lakers play better and we need those FTA’s. The team, overall, has a pretty mild discrepancy between home and road FG% splits (48.5% at home vs. 47.1% on the road). Free throws will matter.