5 THINGS

With the news that AD is out for a minimum of 4 weeks I thought it worthwhile to look at the overall state of the team rather than rehash the latest loss to the Bulls. In general, this season, like last, is being defined more by who isn’t playing rather than who is. Be it injury, COVID, wanting to be traded or anti-vaxx stances the players that haven’t played this season have garnered as many headlines as the ones who have suited up. All of this has impacted the Lakers in one way or another so let’s dig in. At least 2021 is at an end.

1. The Lakerteers. Russ, AD, and LBJ have played 13 games as a unit and that trend of one or more of them missing will do nothing but continue due to AD’s knee injury. If we’re lucky he’ll be the only one that misses extended time but let’s face it: LeBron has entered a fairly injury-prone era of his career missing several games already due to various, and differing, injuries. Russ has been the most consistent of the three and his play has steadily improved. AD started strong but has really fallen off after lower leg injuries seemed to sap him of his ability to hit the outside shot that made him such a deadly player early in his career. He compensated by scoring inside more but with him being out for 4, or more, weeks what was already a small team got smaller. If LeBron and Russ can both stay on the floor, elevate the role-players to a decent level and share the ball properly I think we’ll stick in the 8-5 range of seeding but if they struggle to blend or the guys brought in to do a specific job don’t get it done we could see a Laker team loaded with HOF, top 75 All Timers, numerous All NBA this or that’s, MVPs, DPOY, ROY and so on have to play in to get to the playoffs.
2. The role-players. There’s no way to sugar coat, the Laker struggle to find the right blend of role-players to slot in around AD and James. Adding Russ only seems to have exacerbated that issue which is just another reason it’s mystifying to me that we let Caruso, who had proven he could fit in on a team like this, walk. Regardless, what we have now is a collection of aged vets and young up and comers with the tilt leaning heavily on the aged-vet side. Gone are the elite role guys we saw in the Bubble like Green, Kuzma, KCP, Caruso, and locker-room stabilizer Jared Dudley. Much has been made out of who has left the building but we really need to figure out how to elevate the guys in it now because help is definitely not on the way. Unless you count G-Leaguers or over-seas vets earning a dime as help. I do not. IT has shown he can still score in addition to showing that he will never be a plus defender on any team in the NBA going forward. His lack of size and steps lost in addition to it never really being a strong aspect of his game means he will struggle. Why we chose IT over James Ennis, a SF, will be yet another mystifying aspect of this season. One that has seen Rob Pelinka consistently choose the older player who requires more of the ball and/or a VERY specific role for said players for them to be most effective. The Laker role-players have struggled a lot this season as they have lacked for exposure as to how our Big Three function which has trickled down to very uneven play across the board.
3. COVID season 2.-uhm…no. The NBA will not be postponing anything unless the Federal government steps in and starts issuing shelter i place edicts or some such. There will be no Bubble playoffs, we will have travel and really the only question is to what degree do the NBPU and the NBA board of governors and owners disagree on vaxx mandates. If we continue to sieve players like we have been and we get what amounts to a replacement league season just without a lockout one has to imagine the topic of mandatory full vaccinations and boosters will at least get floated and looked at. Yes, there will be some hue and cry from the players but ultimately the things that they work for the most: the ability to earn money on the open market, legacies and rings, will win out. Sure, we might lose Kyrie for the season. But the latest tweak to both how replacement players affect the salary cap and the insistence that enough players be signed who can suit up rather than postponing a number of games or shutting down for a short time tells you all you need to know about the League’s stance on another semi-shut down: Hell no.
4. Help on the way? Unlikely. because of injury, COVID, contract rigmarole and poor play in general it’s pretty safe to say the Lakers do not have the assets to swing a big trade that would end up being favorable to them. Frankly, I don’t see a move the Lakers can make won’t amount to essentially admitting this season was a disaster from the start, a PR nightmare I believe the front office is very keen on avoiding. AT this point they have so many baked-in excuses as to why the team has struggled as much as it has (injuries to stars, injuries to young players, injuries to key players, injuries in general, COVID, fake COVID, time needed to gel when no time is available and so on) that it almost makes sense for them to move forward as is and hope for the best. The only tradable contracts are Nunn and THT. Toss in a vet minimum player that couldn’t find a better deal elsewhere to start the season and that’s the package we have to offer. Underwhelming seems a kind term, really. Unless you want to see John Wall or maybe Kemba Walker manning the point you can throw out any and all Russ trades, I don’t care how the trade machine works it out. If Philly was interested it would only be to toss us bad deals in the form of more players added for a Ben Simmons deal and frankly we can’t offer them a pick until almost the next decade unless we involve the draft pick Godfather Sam Presti in OKC. This amounts to gutting the team in mid-January which will also not likely be happening. Is there a team that views Westbrook as the missing piece to a title? Maybe, but it’s a lot more likely that he gets traded this summer if that’s the case when his deal is expiring and the Lakers are over a barrel with cap issues, again. Why help the Lakers now if you know Westbrook can be had this summer as an expiring along with likely coercing Pelinka into tossing in THT anyhow and the 2027 1st rounder when it’s that much closer? SO I don’t see any trade other than something more minor, possibly with the Kings or Pacers, but even those teams can likely get better picks somehow and will covet said asset.
5. Thankfully the western conference is kind of a mess this season. The top 3 spots are locked in between the Warriors, Suns and Jazz. Memphis…without Ja Morant who is back…has started separating themselves from the pack, as well at 19-13. After that it’s a jumble of .500-ish teams with injury or roster issues as bad as ours. SO 5th seems to me to be the highest seeding we can hope for given everything above. TO date our only consistent aspect of the team is it’s inconsistencies. Being slow, small and old is not generally a recipe for success in the NBA and yet that’s the very team we have assembled. That being the case we desperately need Frank and Co. to figure some things out better, especially on defense. We also need lady luck to blow some wind our way on the injury front in the form of a quick recovery for AD, no more COVID games missed, and fewer injuries in general. Also, we need to get Nunn on the floor at some point since he is now the only Laker signed this summer who has yet to play in the regular season.

The Lakers face the Suns, with Book, and I think we’ll be right back at .500 after tonight with a 16-16 record. The Suns are rolling the way the Lakers were after losing to the Celtics way back in ’07 – ’08. Determined. Focused. Good. In all reality we could close out the year on a multi-game losing streak unless we manage to beat Houston or San Antonio. If we kick off 2022 looking up at most of the western conference expect all the hot coaching seat noise, trade rumors and overall malaise around the team to deepen if not get worse. We can do better than that, it’s just nigh-impossible to expect this team to turn the corner given all that ails it at this point.

It took not 1 but 2 last second shots for the Lakers to overcome the short-handed Dallas Mavericks but overcome they did. With Wayne Ellington forcing overtime off of a broken play where the loose ball came to him when it looked like the Mavs had won to Austin Reaves canning a three while getting no-call fouled the Lakers showed a lot of grit in pulling out the win last night. While one of it was very pretty at the end of the season that W will look a lot like all the other ones.

1. The Three Lakerteers. Last night saw one of the more balanced outings from the Lakers superstar trio. They shot the ball about equally (AD-18, Russ-18, LBJ-19), scored pretty equally (AD-20, Russ-23, LBJ-24) and played about the same number of minutes (AD-39, Russ-42, LBJ-43). In a game where LeBron was pretty focused on getting his own scoring going, AD was knocking off some rust after sitting out for a little over a week and Russ continued his integration process this was a nice game for the Laker big three.
2. Wayne Ellington’s big bucket. It’s easy to forget that Ellington’s clutch shot off a totally broken up play sent the game into overtime because of what came next. But Wayne was much a hero as any Laker last night with 9 points (3-9 from three, no two pointers) and some solid defense (3 steals). Wayne has upped his defensive intensity over the last week or so and it’s paying off. He was a starter last night and was on the floor for most of the 4th and OT when the game hung in the balance. While it’ll take a lot more defense to shake his gunner legacy Wayne has been putting in work on the right end of the court for this team to have success.
3. Austin Reaves big bucket. For me the biggest aspect of that shot wasn’t that he took it and made it (when you get the ball with 1 second left you better shoot or you probably don’t belong in an NBA uniform) but that it came after an on-court dressing down from LeBron about a blown defensive assignment. The rookie stuck with it, stayed within his game, and knocked down the winning three much to Mark Cuban’s disbelief. Reaves is going to have plenty of growing pains (as the dressing down regarding his defense indicates) but he seems like a hard-worker who soaks up what he’s taught. Keep that mentality and good things will come of it.
4. 3 game winning streak and a .500 road record. There will be nothing historic about this Laker regular season in terms of team victories, records or streaks. Steady progress and growth should be enough for these guys to be ready for the playoffs if everyone can stay healthy (a seeming impossibility but more on that later) and if that road can be navigated successfully we’ll be good come May. The Lakers didn’t give up an absurd number of points in the paint (although early on it looked like we might but they turned the screws a bit and tightened it up) or too many free throws or threes. Some of that was the Mavs missing shots and some was good D but the manner in which the results were achieved is slowly becoming inconsequential as long as we keep pace with the middle of the pack while learning on the fly.
5. More guys out for tomorrow. With Russ and Bradley being added to the growing list of players who are out due to the league’s health and safety protocols the Lakers will need more from LeBron, AD, Reaves and whomever else can suit up. Also, welcome back Mr. Isaiah Thomas! A name that has been consistently dangled in front of Laker fans IT is returning to lend whatever help he can. While it’s a ten day deal and will only last until someone else can play it’s always nice to see someone get a second chance and see what they can do with it. Here’s hoping IT proves the doubters wrong and finds a way to stick in the NBA. Like Boogie, serious injuries with terrible timing have derailed his career.

The Lakers are holding onto 6th place in the west and are starting to get a little separation between themselves and the lower tier teams in the western conference. 6 or higher is a must for an aged team like the Lakers. the more rest and fewer games played the better, especially games like the play-ins. So the Lakers need to keep growing, improving and staying afloat for a few more months. With a little luck (which seems in short supply) they’ll do just that.

It’s no mistake that I didn’t do a 5er after the win over Boston. I was excited, I was pumped, I was stoked because for a few moments I thought “we’re turning a corner here!”. Then I remembered how the only consistency thus far for the Lakers has been inconsistency. So I waited a game to see if we would play the way we did against Boston or continue our Paula Abdul “Opposite’s Attract” theme by taking a step forward followed by a step back.

Cue the Cat:

1. LeBron’s declining impact. I’m not wondering anymore, it’s here. The decline has begun and you see it in the pace we play (something that can be traced back to the post-groin injury in year 1), his shot selection (weighted more and more towards the 3 point line, and in how he finishes or rather how he doesn’t. It’s early-ish but The King is on pace to shoot, by far, the most threes/game of his career. 40.6% of his shots are from beyond the arc but 54..9 % of his points are of the 2 point variety. In short, the King is settling for threes. Often after dribbling out the shot clock. No offense to one of the greatest to ever play but is the definition of bad basketball. If it holds up over the course of the season his 8 3PT FGA/game would represent a career high (one which he set 2 season’s ago at 6.3 and replicated, exactly, last season) but he’s only making 2.6/game for a mediocre 33%. It’s showing a lot in his rebounding which is currently 5.9/game (rookie season is his career low at 5.5 other than then and now no season where he averaged fewer than 6+). He’s also picking up more fouls than he generally does. Some of this are his minutes at center, I would imagine. That being the primary defender in the paint, having to rotate out onto guys on defense rather than hiding on a dude in the corner is sapping him of valuable energy. Look, the man is 36 years old, this was always going to happen, and the Lakers are simply ill-equipped to absorb an ever-aging LeBron on this roster. We have almost no up-and-coming talent; no offense to THT but we’re basically hoping he tops out at KCP level impact if one is being realistic. Russ has been doing his best for the most part, but there is simply no replacing what LeBron brings. Could some of this be alleviated by pulling him out of the center rotation? I’m not so sure. Age has a way of just affecting everything. It may be that he’s working his way into game-level conditioning which, if so, means there are better days to come. I sure hope it’s the last point otherwise the rest of the points below don’t really matter.
2. Anthony Davis has to figure out how to be dominant every game. Watch tape of Shaq, dude. Nobody got beat up more in the post but still brought it hard every single night like Shaquille O’Neal. It’s not like AD has been playing poorly, he’s been fine. But with roughly a 1/3 of the Lakers cap space occupied by his salary and given LeBron’s decline we need him to be more than he’s been on a nightly basis. We need more than fine. We need 30 points a game and 10 rebounds and that’s all there is to it. Be a champ on D, sure, hold guys accountable and thank you for doing so, but we need you to be the difference-maker on offense we all know you can be. AD is, again, not really in the MVP conversation. If he can average 30 and 10 he will be and he needs to get on that ASAP or, frankly, the season is done. Russ and LeBron with the rest of this team is not enough to win a title with AD playing a side-kick role. Time to put on the super suit and take to the air, Mr. Davis, the hopes and dreams of Laker Nation are counting on it.
3. We need one dominant quarter from Russ/game. There should never be a game where THT takes more shots than Russell Westbrook does. Russ had scored all of his 9 points in the first half and was largely shut down after that by…himself. 4 shots in the second half. I didn’t see the Grizz scheming for him to not get the ball or aggressively doubling him when he drove. He just kind of took himself out of the game. Again, as a player that roughly 1/3 of the Laker salary cap is dedicated to that simply doesn’t cut it. We absolutely need Russ to p0ut the kind of pressure on the defense that he is still capable of doing. That means more than 9 FGA. That means capping the turnovers at 3/game (he had 6 last night and half of those were just him losing the ball all on his own). Russ is the wild card superstar as he can turn a competitive game into a blowout but can’t seem to be the one that helps the team win on a consistent basis.
4. The rest of the team. I mean…we’re old, man. Outside of Monk and THT (and Nunn who has yet to play and Reaves who is a rookie) there’s not an impact player on the roster under 30. So, with that in mind, it’s small surprise we have trouble staying in front of guys and defending at a level we’d become accustomed to as Laker fans. They all score in ways relative to their roles and they’re doing fine at it with nobody really distinguishing themselves from the rest in terms of consistency or impact. if anything the only thing that’s certain is Monk is our best young player to date passing THT fairly easily. THT still seems to be the apple of the organization’s eye but one has to wonder how long that will continue. Asking more of the role guys is pretty absurd, as well. They don’t bring the ball up, they’re taking up a 1/3 of our cap space each and they weren’t brought here to do that. They take the shots they get, they play defense the best they can in our system. They collect that vet minimum paycheck. Also, hoping Ariza and/or Nunn will drastically change any of this point is fool hardy. Ariza is one of 3 36 year olds on the roster and Nunn hasn’t played in months. Both of them will need practice, game reps and time to get to even so, hopefully they’re contributing come the ASB…depending on if they’re even playing by then.
5. Frank needs to…oh wait, Frank has already changed everything like three times. You can’t coach around age. It is impossible. We play at the slowest pace, with Russ on the squad. We waste entire possessions watching LeBron James dribble and heave. Frank isn’t going to talk LeBron into turning back the clock to 2011. We’ve seen Frank go from one kind of line up to another, from man defense to switching to whatever it is we try in this game or that. As a coach he certainly has limitations but he is also quite open to trying whatever works. The issue being that, because of the duality of the team he was given, it’s overall age and lack of size this is the best he can do. He can’t coach around shrimpy players or aged vets. The irony being that Frank will also be the one to go first because that’s just how it works in pro sport. Coach gets fired, GM next, then players get shipped.

Look, it’s not all doom and gloom. We’re still 6th in the west with teams like the Clippers, Nuggets, Mavericks and Trailblazers all under-performing, as well. If we can shake off our habit of playing .500 ball we can certainly get up to 4th and have home court advantage in the first round while avoiding the play-in. Our longest winning streak this season is 3. Our longest losing streak is also 3. So if LeBron can turn back the clock just a tiny bit, Russ figures how to dominate one quarter/game and AD plays at a close to MVP level we’ll be OK. Maybe not win a title but certainly be more enjoyable to watch. As it all currently strands there’s no way we get past the Warriors or Suns in the west. It ain’t happening, we simply lack in too many areas that they excel in.