Iztok Franko: Lakers Game Preview: Games 68 and 69 @ Rockets

March 16, 2026 at 8:17 am

FROM ABOVE ARTICLE:

Two games in Houston that could decide the race for the third seed

The Lakers aced the first part of their schedule loaded with tough opponents, beating the Knicks, the Timberwolves, and the Nuggets after an overtime thriller that was decided by Luka Dončić’s game-winning jumper on Sunday. Now they move from Crypto.com Arena to Houston for a two-game stop against a team built to test their physicality and resilience: the Rockets.

With only 15 games left on the schedule and the standings tightly packed, it almost goes without saying that every remaining game carries implications. But with the Lakers and Rockets both sitting on 25 losses, this two-game set could go a long way toward deciding which team finishes higher in the standings. For the Lakers, that probably means at least one win, but even that might not be enough. If the teams split the two games, the Rockets would win the tiebreaker 2–1 and still hold the edge with a slightly easier remaining schedule.

Remaining schedule strength (source: tankathon.com)

The good news for the Lakers is that they are heading into this matchup in a much better place than they were the last time around, when the Rockets demolished them in a high-profile Christmas matchup, prompting me to call for changes, even a system reset. Looking back, that game now feels like a season low point for the Lakers. It was their third straight blowout loss and a night in which they also lost Austin Reaves at halftime, an injury that kept him out for 18 of the next games.

Much has changed since. The Lakers are playing their best basketball of the season, winning five straight games and eight of their last nine, proving they can hang with and even beat the best teams in the NBA. A group that the Rockets, despite some recent struggles, still belong to.

Lakers (42-25) @ Rockets (41-25) game facts

Rest: LAL on 1 day of rest; HOU on 2 days of rest

Ranking: LAL 13th in Point Diff (+1.6), HOU 6th in Point Diff (+5.5)

LAL vs HOU 2025-26 record: 0-1 (see Game 29 observations here)

LAL injuries: Maxi Kleber (OUT)

HOU injuries: Fred VanVleet (OUT), Steven Adams (OUT), Jae’Sean Tate (OUT), Alperen Sengun (questionable)

LAL projected starting five: Luka Dončić (G), Marcus Smart (G), Austin Reaves (G), LeBron James (F), Deandre Ayton (C)

LAL key reserves: Rui Hachimura, Luke Kennard, Jake LaRavia, Jaxson Hayes, Jarred Vanderbilt

HOU projected starting five: Amen Thompson (G), Tari Eason (F), Kevin Durant (F), Jabari Smith (F), Alperen Sengun (C)

HOU key reserves: Reed Shepard, Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela, Josh Okogie, Aaron Holiday

Key storyline: can the Lakers withstand the Rockets’ physicality while staying disciplined?

This will be a clear clash of styles, the Lakers’ skill on one side matched against the Rockets’ size, athleticism, and physicality. Houston with a huge starting five with all players 6-7 or taller, including three at 6-11, versus the Lakers with their playmaking and three on-ball creators. Dončić against the best set of wing defenders that frustrated him into four early turnovers in the first five minutes of the first matchup. Another test for Austin Reaves against length and athleticism. Deandre Ayton and Rui Hachimura against force and physicality on the glass.

The Lakers hold a clear edge in half-court offensive efficiency: they rank second in the NBA, scoring 103.8 points per 100 half-court plays. Compared to the Rockets, who rank 23rd at 95.8, that’s a huge eight-point edge. But the Rockets overcome that by winning the possession battle and creating more chances. So the Lakers will have to limit turnovers and protect the glass. They did neither in the first game, when the Rockets destroyed them with a 52.5% offensive rebound rate, by far the worst mark allowed by the Lakers this season.

The Rockets set the tone in the first game with their physicality from the opening possession, and the Lakers just couldn’t handle it and lost their composure. Tonight they need to stay disciplined when the Rockets hit and be ready to strike back.

Lakers on offense | Rockets on defense

The Rockets are a rare team that has enough length and defensive talent in the starting lineup to cover all three Lakers offensive engines. In the first game, Tari Eason started as the primary defender on Dončić, Amen Thompson defended Reaves, while Kevin Durant was matched up with LeBron James. Individually, these are all difficult matchups, which is why the Lakers, like in their last game when they attacked Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, need to be very deliberate and disciplined in attacking the weakest links. In this case, those will be the two big men Alperen Sengun and Clint Capela, and the key sixth man Reed Sheppard.

Ime Udoka protected his big men by blitzing Dončić pick actions and forced early turnovers as Dončić threw some risky and off-target passes against the on-ball press of Eason and Thompson. Dončić cannot repeat that in this game. The Rockets have too much length to disrupt passing lanes, so discipline and patience will be key, at times making the simple pass and trusting the next man to make the right play.

The Lakers got plenty of reps attacking Jokić and the Nuggets’ blitzes, and Reaves especially had a great game attacking closeouts with his speed. With a similar slower target in Sengun, this might be the game to lean even more into that, or even increase the volume of actions with Reaves as the primary ballhandler.

Iztok Franko
@iztok_franko
Austin Reaves last 4 games, wins vs DEN,CHI,MIN, NYK:

29.5 ppg, 6.5 ast, 5.8 reb, 1.3 stl
56% FG%, shot above 50% in all 4 games
45% from 3

Scored 30 or more in last three games. And had some awesome defensive plays.
12:37 AM · Mar 16, 2026 · 4.31K Views
2 Replies · 23 Reposts · 152 Likes

Limiting turnovers will be key, and to their credit Dončić and the Lakers have been much better at that lately. After spending much of the year in the bottom third of the league in turnover rate, the Lakers have been one of the best, ranking fourth in the NBA since the All-Star break.

Rockets on offense | Lakers on defense

The Rockets’ key weakness on this end of the floor is the lack of a true floor general, which results in a high turnover rate, where they currently rank 28th, the third worst mark in the NBA. The Lakers have shown that, when locked in, defensive playmaking and generating steals is one of their strengths, with players following Marcus Smart’s lead.

We will see if JJ Redick opts for a similar tactic he used against Jokić on Durant, with aggressive double-teaming, forcing the pass and challenging the supporting cast to make enough plays. Doubling would make sense, as the Lakers do not have an elite wing defender with enough length to bother Durant (Jarred Vanderbilt’s minutes have been very limited recently), and KD is not nearly the passer that Jokić is. The other offensive hub for the Rockets is Sengun, and the key for the Lakers would be for Deandre Ayton to play with the same physicality he showed in overtime against Jokić. Thompson is the third scorer and playmaker in the starting lineup. He is a great finisher at the rim, but unreliable from the mid-range and three, so closing his driving lanes in rotations will be key. Easier said than done against one of the best, if not the best, athletes in the NBA.

The Rockets’ superpower, of course, is crashing the glass. They are the best team in the NBA in offensive rebound rate and putbacks, winning the math by getting more opportunities than their opponents. However, their superpower took a significant hit when they lost Steven Adams to a season-ending ankle injury on January 18. Before that, they were the fourth-best offense in the NBA with a historic offensive rebound rate of almost 40%. Since then, they rank as the 19th-best offense with a still very good, but not juggernaut-level, offensive rebound rate of 34.5%. Controlling the boards will be easier without Adams, who grabbed four offensive rebounds in the first matchup, but the Lakers will still need to collectively battle Sengun and Capela, two great rebounders, and watch for Thompson, Eason, and Okogie crashing from the wings.

Final thoughts

The Lakers have flipped the script with their recent play. For most of the season, matchups against athletic teams felt like a problem waiting to happen, with the same limitations likely to be exposed. Lately, however, the Lakers have shown they can match that physicality while still leaning on their skill and shotmaking. This two-game stop in Houston is another opportunity to prove that the recent surge is real, against one of the toughest and most physical teams in the league. If they do that, these games could be another step forward. If not, the Rockets will gladly drag them back into the kind of game they want to play, and back into the debates that were so demoralizing just a couple of weeks ago.

Comments

LakerTom says

March 16, 2026 at 8:17 am

FROM ABOVE ARTICLE:

Two games in Houston that could decide the race for the third seed

The Lakers aced the first part of their schedule loaded with tough opponents, beating the Knicks, the Timberwolves, and the Nuggets after an overtime thriller that was decided by Luka Dončić’s game-winning jumper on Sunday. Now they move from Crypto.com Arena to Houston for a two-game stop against a team built to test their physicality and resilience: the Rockets.

With only 15 games left on the schedule and the standings tightly packed, it almost goes without saying that every remaining game carries implications. But with the Lakers and Rockets both sitting on 25 losses, this two-game set could go a long way toward deciding which team finishes higher in the standings. For the Lakers, that probably means at least one win, but even that might not be enough. If the teams split the two games, the Rockets would win the tiebreaker 2–1 and still hold the edge with a slightly easier remaining schedule.

Remaining schedule strength (source: tankathon.com)

The good news for the Lakers is that they are heading into this matchup in a much better place than they were the last time around, when the Rockets demolished them in a high-profile Christmas matchup, prompting me to call for changes, even a system reset. Looking back, that game now feels like a season low point for the Lakers. It was their third straight blowout loss and a night in which they also lost Austin Reaves at halftime, an injury that kept him out for 18 of the next games.

Much has changed since. The Lakers are playing their best basketball of the season, winning five straight games and eight of their last nine, proving they can hang with and even beat the best teams in the NBA. A group that the Rockets, despite some recent struggles, still belong to.

Lakers (42-25) @ Rockets (41-25) game facts

Rest: LAL on 1 day of rest; HOU on 2 days of rest

Ranking: LAL 13th in Point Diff (+1.6), HOU 6th in Point Diff (+5.5)

LAL vs HOU 2025-26 record: 0-1 (see Game 29 observations here)

LAL injuries: Maxi Kleber (OUT)

HOU injuries: Fred VanVleet (OUT), Steven Adams (OUT), Jae’Sean Tate (OUT), Alperen Sengun (questionable)

LAL projected starting five: Luka Dončić (G), Marcus Smart (G), Austin Reaves (G), LeBron James (F), Deandre Ayton (C)

LAL key reserves: Rui Hachimura, Luke Kennard, Jake LaRavia, Jaxson Hayes, Jarred Vanderbilt

HOU projected starting five: Amen Thompson (G), Tari Eason (F), Kevin Durant (F), Jabari Smith (F), Alperen Sengun (C)

HOU key reserves: Reed Shepard, Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela, Josh Okogie, Aaron Holiday

Key storyline: can the Lakers withstand the Rockets’ physicality while staying disciplined?

This will be a clear clash of styles, the Lakers’ skill on one side matched against the Rockets’ size, athleticism, and physicality. Houston with a huge starting five with all players 6-7 or taller, including three at 6-11, versus the Lakers with their playmaking and three on-ball creators. Dončić against the best set of wing defenders that frustrated him into four early turnovers in the first five minutes of the first matchup. Another test for Austin Reaves against length and athleticism. Deandre Ayton and Rui Hachimura against force and physicality on the glass.

The Lakers hold a clear edge in half-court offensive efficiency: they rank second in the NBA, scoring 103.8 points per 100 half-court plays. Compared to the Rockets, who rank 23rd at 95.8, that’s a huge eight-point edge. But the Rockets overcome that by winning the possession battle and creating more chances. So the Lakers will have to limit turnovers and protect the glass. They did neither in the first game, when the Rockets destroyed them with a 52.5% offensive rebound rate, by far the worst mark allowed by the Lakers this season.

The Rockets set the tone in the first game with their physicality from the opening possession, and the Lakers just couldn’t handle it and lost their composure. Tonight they need to stay disciplined when the Rockets hit and be ready to strike back.

Lakers on offense | Rockets on defense

The Rockets are a rare team that has enough length and defensive talent in the starting lineup to cover all three Lakers offensive engines. In the first game, Tari Eason started as the primary defender on Dončić, Amen Thompson defended Reaves, while Kevin Durant was matched up with LeBron James. Individually, these are all difficult matchups, which is why the Lakers, like in their last game when they attacked Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, need to be very deliberate and disciplined in attacking the weakest links. In this case, those will be the two big men Alperen Sengun and Clint Capela, and the key sixth man Reed Sheppard.

Ime Udoka protected his big men by blitzing Dončić pick actions and forced early turnovers as Dončić threw some risky and off-target passes against the on-ball press of Eason and Thompson. Dončić cannot repeat that in this game. The Rockets have too much length to disrupt passing lanes, so discipline and patience will be key, at times making the simple pass and trusting the next man to make the right play.

The Lakers got plenty of reps attacking Jokić and the Nuggets’ blitzes, and Reaves especially had a great game attacking closeouts with his speed. With a similar slower target in Sengun, this might be the game to lean even more into that, or even increase the volume of actions with Reaves as the primary ballhandler.

Iztok Franko
@iztok_franko
Austin Reaves last 4 games, wins vs DEN,CHI,MIN, NYK:

29.5 ppg, 6.5 ast, 5.8 reb, 1.3 stl
56% FG%, shot above 50% in all 4 games
45% from 3

Scored 30 or more in last three games. And had some awesome defensive plays.
12:37 AM · Mar 16, 2026 · 4.31K Views
2 Replies · 23 Reposts · 152 Likes

Limiting turnovers will be key, and to their credit Dončić and the Lakers have been much better at that lately. After spending much of the year in the bottom third of the league in turnover rate, the Lakers have been one of the best, ranking fourth in the NBA since the All-Star break.

Rockets on offense | Lakers on defense

The Rockets’ key weakness on this end of the floor is the lack of a true floor general, which results in a high turnover rate, where they currently rank 28th, the third worst mark in the NBA. The Lakers have shown that, when locked in, defensive playmaking and generating steals is one of their strengths, with players following Marcus Smart’s lead.

We will see if JJ Redick opts for a similar tactic he used against Jokić on Durant, with aggressive double-teaming, forcing the pass and challenging the supporting cast to make enough plays. Doubling would make sense, as the Lakers do not have an elite wing defender with enough length to bother Durant (Jarred Vanderbilt’s minutes have been very limited recently), and KD is not nearly the passer that Jokić is. The other offensive hub for the Rockets is Sengun, and the key for the Lakers would be for Deandre Ayton to play with the same physicality he showed in overtime against Jokić. Thompson is the third scorer and playmaker in the starting lineup. He is a great finisher at the rim, but unreliable from the mid-range and three, so closing his driving lanes in rotations will be key. Easier said than done against one of the best, if not the best, athletes in the NBA.

The Rockets’ superpower, of course, is crashing the glass. They are the best team in the NBA in offensive rebound rate and putbacks, winning the math by getting more opportunities than their opponents. However, their superpower took a significant hit when they lost Steven Adams to a season-ending ankle injury on January 18. Before that, they were the fourth-best offense in the NBA with a historic offensive rebound rate of almost 40%. Since then, they rank as the 19th-best offense with a still very good, but not juggernaut-level, offensive rebound rate of 34.5%. Controlling the boards will be easier without Adams, who grabbed four offensive rebounds in the first matchup, but the Lakers will still need to collectively battle Sengun and Capela, two great rebounders, and watch for Thompson, Eason, and Okogie crashing from the wings.

Final thoughts

The Lakers have flipped the script with their recent play. For most of the season, matchups against athletic teams felt like a problem waiting to happen, with the same limitations likely to be exposed. Lately, however, the Lakers have shown they can match that physicality while still leaning on their skill and shotmaking. This two-game stop in Houston is another opportunity to prove that the recent surge is real, against one of the toughest and most physical teams in the league. If they do that, these games could be another step forward. If not, the Rockets will gladly drag them back into the kind of game they want to play, and back into the debates that were so demoralizing just a couple of weeks ago.

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