Iztok Franko: Lakers Game Preview: Game 29 vs Rockets

December 25, 2025 at 11:14 am

FROM ABOVE ARTICLE:

Merry Christmas! Hard to beat a holiday filled with NBA basketball, especially with the Lakers on the main stage hosting the Rockets.

There is more good news: Luka Dončić is expected to play after missing the last game with a lower leg contusion, as is Rui Hachimura, so both the Lakers and the Rockets should have their main players available.

This should be a fun matchup between two teams sitting neck and neck in the standings, but with almost opposite advanced profiles. Houston has been one of the league’s best teams by point differential all season. At +8.7, the Rockets rank second in the NBA, behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder. And yet, they’ve also been the league’s most high-profile underachievers late in games. Houston is just 6–8 in clutch situations, with four of those losses coming in overtime. Three overtime losses have come in their last five games, and eight of their ten total losses this season have been decided in the clutch. So far, the clutch process has been too much Alperen Sengun, and too little Kevin Durant, who was brought in to provide shotmaking when things get tight. The result is a league-worst -2.9 win differential—nearly three fewer wins than expected based on how dominant their point margins have been. The Lakers, on the other end, have made their money in the clutch, where they are a league-best 10–0 and own the NBA’s top +4.9 win differential.

So, you could say this is a battle between the league’s biggest underachievers and overachievers.

That shouldn’t matter too much tonight, as both teams have a lot to prove and redeem themselves. Both have been struggling lately, especially on defense, with both coaches questioning their teams’ effort. Over the last three weeks, the Lakers are 3–3, with their defensive struggles well documented. They rank 27th defensively over that stretch. The Rockets’ defensive collapse is much more surprising. They are 2–5 over the same stretch and rank even lower, 28th on defense, after Ime Udoka’s squad was the league’s second-best defensive team before that.

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Lakers (19-9) vs Rockets (17-10) game facts
Rest: LAL on 1 day of rest; HOU on 1 day of rest

Ranking: LAL 16th in Point Diff (+0.4), HOU 2nd in Point Diff (+8.7)

LAL vs HOU 2024-25 record: 2-1

LAL injuries: Luka Dončić (questionable), Jaxson Hayes (questionable), Gabe Vincent (OUT), Rui Hachimura (probable)

HOU injuries: Fred VanVleet (OUT), Alperen Sengun (questionable), Dorian Finney-Smith (questionable), Jae’Sean Tate (questionable)

LAL projected starting five: Luka Dončić (G), Austin Reaves (G), Rui Hachimura (F), LeBron James (F), Deandre Ayton (C)

LAL key reserves: Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia, Jaxson Hayes, Jarred Vanderbilt, Maxi Kleber, Dalton Knecht, Nick Smith Jr., Adou Thiero

HOU projected starting five: Amen Thompson (G), Josh Okogie (G), Kevin Durant (F), Jabari Smith Jr. (F), Alperen Sengun (C)

HOU key reserves: Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Aaron Holiday, Clint Capela

Key storyline: How will the Lakers handle another long and very physical team?

The book has been out on the Lakers this season: stifle them with athleticism, length, and pressure, and they can very possibly turn the ball over, get run over in transition, and eventually roll over.

Despite their and Udoka’s reputation, the Rockets haven’t been a heavy on-ball pressure team. They rank just 21st in opponent turnover rate and ninth in opponent free-throw rate, a profile more in line with a conservative defense. That could change with Tari Eason and Dorian Finney-Smith potentially returning to the rotation.

But where the Rockets’ aggressiveness really comes into play is on the glass. They are the NBA’s best offensive rebounding team, collecting nearly 40% of their misses in the half-court. Their starting lineup is massive, with three players at 6’11”, and only Josh Okogie standing shorter than 6’7”. They also often play two-big lineups, with Steven Adams and Sengun overwhelming opponents on the offensive boards.

Rebounding has been one of the rare bright spots of the Lakers’ defense, but the Rockets will present a challenge they haven’t seen before. Houston is typically a slow-paced team (third slowest pace) that doesn’t run much (24th in transition frequency), but this feels like a matchup where Udoka could change his approach. Expect his athletes—Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Eason, and others—to push the pace at every opportunity, trying to expose the Lakers’ biggest weakness: lack of speed.

The test will be very difficult, but also an opportunity for the Lakers to change the narrative and prove they can hang with young, physical teams on a big national stage—after failing to do so in their last attempt, an NBA Cup quarterfinal loss against the San Antonio Spurs.

This is where the Lakers’ hopes lie, and where the key tactical battle for tonight will unfold.

It feels like for the Lakers to have a chance, their offense, especially their two primary pick-and-roll operators, Luka and Reaves, will need not only efficient scoring nights, but also to force Udoka into more aggressive hedging or blitzing coverages, then punish those looks by making plays in 4-on-3 situations. After a stretch in the middle of the season when teams tried to stop Dončić by getting the ball out of his hands with more aggressive tactics, we’ve seen opponents reverse course. That shift followed the Suns showing a template built around a big playing in drop coverage, combined with aggressive shrink and stunts from the sides to reduce the pocket space Dončić likes to operate in with his snake and hostage dribbles.

The Rockets have strong on-ball defenders suited for this approach in Amen Thompson, Josh Okogie, and Tari Eason. The challenge comes on the back line, where their slower-footed bigs are not the same rim and lob deterrent that Mark Williams was. So far this season, Udoka has been among the more aggressive coaches when it comes to blitz frequency against top ball-handlers. The Rockets have shown those looks against Jamal Murray, Cade Cunningham, James Harden, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. We’ll see whether he goes to that coverage from the start against Dončić, or instead tests his calf and streaky shot early before reverting to showing two on the ball.

Regardless of the coverage, this is a night when the Lakers’ half-court offense will have to be efficient, and Dončić, Reaves, and James can’t afford to turn the ball over at a high rate. Because of the Rockets’ size and offensive rebounding, the Lakers will likely face a possession deficit, and they can’t afford to make it worse by giving the ball away.

The most likely, and most feasible, Lakers path to success is highly efficient scoring with Luka and the rest being the aggressors, dictating the terms on offense and forcing Udoka, Sengun, and the rest into a reactionary rather than proactive approach.

Rockets on offense | Lakers on defense

Here is where things get tricky for LA. Despite their recent struggles, the Rockets have been scoring at a high rate and rank as the third-best offense in the NBA.

The hope for a Lakers defensive resurrection lies in the fact that Houston is not the fast, downhill attacking team that has given them the most problems. Apart from Thompson, the other two key threats, Durant and Sengun, are more methodical, back-you-down or shoot-over-you types of players. That’s the profile the slower Lakers tend to contain better, rather than explosive drive-by attackers.

The Rockets’ shot profile also suits the Lakers better. They rank second in the NBA in mid-range frequency and last in three-point frequency, a much more manageable profile than aggressive rim-attacking or three-point-heavy teams. There is one caveat. The Lakers tend to shrink and show help off corner shooters, or are simply late on close-outs there, and the Rockets are top three in corner three accuracy at 43.5 percent, while also ranking second overall in three-point percentage.

Again, the offensive glass is where the Rockets are elite, especially when Steven Adams is on the floor. To match the Rockets’ size and bulk, the Lakers will need to repeat what they did on March 31 last season, when they collectively fought and gang-rebounded with smaller lineups against Sengun and Adams. That was one of their better hustle wins of the season, and they’ll again try to expose the Rockets’ slow foot speed on the other end.

Are the Lakers ready for zone and switching?

Udoka potentially going all in on size and trying to crush opponents on the glass is another interesting layer of this matchup. The Rockets have already logged 521 possessions with both Sengun and Adams on the floor (see orange blocks in the chart below), and have also paired Sengun with Clint Capela at times.

Source: pbpstats

With those lineups, Udoka often reverts to zone defense, and the Rockets currently rank second in zone defense frequency. The Lakers haven’t faced much zone this season, so Redick and his team will have to be ready and sharp against it tonight.

Personally, I would be more worried if the Rockets go small, with Durant, Smith Jr., Eason, and Thompson in long, switch-everything lineups, than with them having several targets for Dončić, Reaves, and James on the floor. The Lakers have excelled this season against hedge and aggressive schemes, but they tend to get too stagnant, too ISO-heavy, and too reliant on hero shots against switching defenses.

The Rockets’ ability to change styles, and how the Lakers deal with it, adds another interesting layer to this already intriguing matchup.

Final thoughts

After the last disappointing blowout loss against the Suns, I wrote about system breakdowns and the Lakers’ need for deep introspection. Their flaws feel so evident and so hard to overcome that a major reshuffle seems necessary to address them.

Will tonight’s game prove me wrong and bring hope? Or will it deepen those concerns and reinforce the belief in that diagnosis?

Let’s see how it plays out on the biggest NBA regular-season stage.

Comments

LakerTom says

December 25, 2025 at 11:14 am

FROM ABOVE ARTICLE:

Merry Christmas! Hard to beat a holiday filled with NBA basketball, especially with the Lakers on the main stage hosting the Rockets.

There is more good news: Luka Dončić is expected to play after missing the last game with a lower leg contusion, as is Rui Hachimura, so both the Lakers and the Rockets should have their main players available.

This should be a fun matchup between two teams sitting neck and neck in the standings, but with almost opposite advanced profiles. Houston has been one of the league’s best teams by point differential all season. At +8.7, the Rockets rank second in the NBA, behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder. And yet, they’ve also been the league’s most high-profile underachievers late in games. Houston is just 6–8 in clutch situations, with four of those losses coming in overtime. Three overtime losses have come in their last five games, and eight of their ten total losses this season have been decided in the clutch. So far, the clutch process has been too much Alperen Sengun, and too little Kevin Durant, who was brought in to provide shotmaking when things get tight. The result is a league-worst -2.9 win differential—nearly three fewer wins than expected based on how dominant their point margins have been. The Lakers, on the other end, have made their money in the clutch, where they are a league-best 10–0 and own the NBA’s top +4.9 win differential.

So, you could say this is a battle between the league’s biggest underachievers and overachievers.

That shouldn’t matter too much tonight, as both teams have a lot to prove and redeem themselves. Both have been struggling lately, especially on defense, with both coaches questioning their teams’ effort. Over the last three weeks, the Lakers are 3–3, with their defensive struggles well documented. They rank 27th defensively over that stretch. The Rockets’ defensive collapse is much more surprising. They are 2–5 over the same stretch and rank even lower, 28th on defense, after Ime Udoka’s squad was the league’s second-best defensive team before that.

digginbasketball is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Lakers (19-9) vs Rockets (17-10) game facts
Rest: LAL on 1 day of rest; HOU on 1 day of rest

Ranking: LAL 16th in Point Diff (+0.4), HOU 2nd in Point Diff (+8.7)

LAL vs HOU 2024-25 record: 2-1

LAL injuries: Luka Dončić (questionable), Jaxson Hayes (questionable), Gabe Vincent (OUT), Rui Hachimura (probable)

HOU injuries: Fred VanVleet (OUT), Alperen Sengun (questionable), Dorian Finney-Smith (questionable), Jae’Sean Tate (questionable)

LAL projected starting five: Luka Dončić (G), Austin Reaves (G), Rui Hachimura (F), LeBron James (F), Deandre Ayton (C)

LAL key reserves: Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia, Jaxson Hayes, Jarred Vanderbilt, Maxi Kleber, Dalton Knecht, Nick Smith Jr., Adou Thiero

HOU projected starting five: Amen Thompson (G), Josh Okogie (G), Kevin Durant (F), Jabari Smith Jr. (F), Alperen Sengun (C)

HOU key reserves: Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Aaron Holiday, Clint Capela

Key storyline: How will the Lakers handle another long and very physical team?

The book has been out on the Lakers this season: stifle them with athleticism, length, and pressure, and they can very possibly turn the ball over, get run over in transition, and eventually roll over.

Despite their and Udoka’s reputation, the Rockets haven’t been a heavy on-ball pressure team. They rank just 21st in opponent turnover rate and ninth in opponent free-throw rate, a profile more in line with a conservative defense. That could change with Tari Eason and Dorian Finney-Smith potentially returning to the rotation.

But where the Rockets’ aggressiveness really comes into play is on the glass. They are the NBA’s best offensive rebounding team, collecting nearly 40% of their misses in the half-court. Their starting lineup is massive, with three players at 6’11”, and only Josh Okogie standing shorter than 6’7”. They also often play two-big lineups, with Steven Adams and Sengun overwhelming opponents on the offensive boards.

Rebounding has been one of the rare bright spots of the Lakers’ defense, but the Rockets will present a challenge they haven’t seen before. Houston is typically a slow-paced team (third slowest pace) that doesn’t run much (24th in transition frequency), but this feels like a matchup where Udoka could change his approach. Expect his athletes—Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Eason, and others—to push the pace at every opportunity, trying to expose the Lakers’ biggest weakness: lack of speed.

The test will be very difficult, but also an opportunity for the Lakers to change the narrative and prove they can hang with young, physical teams on a big national stage—after failing to do so in their last attempt, an NBA Cup quarterfinal loss against the San Antonio Spurs.

This is where the Lakers’ hopes lie, and where the key tactical battle for tonight will unfold.

It feels like for the Lakers to have a chance, their offense, especially their two primary pick-and-roll operators, Luka and Reaves, will need not only efficient scoring nights, but also to force Udoka into more aggressive hedging or blitzing coverages, then punish those looks by making plays in 4-on-3 situations. After a stretch in the middle of the season when teams tried to stop Dončić by getting the ball out of his hands with more aggressive tactics, we’ve seen opponents reverse course. That shift followed the Suns showing a template built around a big playing in drop coverage, combined with aggressive shrink and stunts from the sides to reduce the pocket space Dončić likes to operate in with his snake and hostage dribbles.

The Rockets have strong on-ball defenders suited for this approach in Amen Thompson, Josh Okogie, and Tari Eason. The challenge comes on the back line, where their slower-footed bigs are not the same rim and lob deterrent that Mark Williams was. So far this season, Udoka has been among the more aggressive coaches when it comes to blitz frequency against top ball-handlers. The Rockets have shown those looks against Jamal Murray, Cade Cunningham, James Harden, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. We’ll see whether he goes to that coverage from the start against Dončić, or instead tests his calf and streaky shot early before reverting to showing two on the ball.

Regardless of the coverage, this is a night when the Lakers’ half-court offense will have to be efficient, and Dončić, Reaves, and James can’t afford to turn the ball over at a high rate. Because of the Rockets’ size and offensive rebounding, the Lakers will likely face a possession deficit, and they can’t afford to make it worse by giving the ball away.

The most likely, and most feasible, Lakers path to success is highly efficient scoring with Luka and the rest being the aggressors, dictating the terms on offense and forcing Udoka, Sengun, and the rest into a reactionary rather than proactive approach.

Rockets on offense | Lakers on defense

Here is where things get tricky for LA. Despite their recent struggles, the Rockets have been scoring at a high rate and rank as the third-best offense in the NBA.

The hope for a Lakers defensive resurrection lies in the fact that Houston is not the fast, downhill attacking team that has given them the most problems. Apart from Thompson, the other two key threats, Durant and Sengun, are more methodical, back-you-down or shoot-over-you types of players. That’s the profile the slower Lakers tend to contain better, rather than explosive drive-by attackers.

The Rockets’ shot profile also suits the Lakers better. They rank second in the NBA in mid-range frequency and last in three-point frequency, a much more manageable profile than aggressive rim-attacking or three-point-heavy teams. There is one caveat. The Lakers tend to shrink and show help off corner shooters, or are simply late on close-outs there, and the Rockets are top three in corner three accuracy at 43.5 percent, while also ranking second overall in three-point percentage.

Again, the offensive glass is where the Rockets are elite, especially when Steven Adams is on the floor. To match the Rockets’ size and bulk, the Lakers will need to repeat what they did on March 31 last season, when they collectively fought and gang-rebounded with smaller lineups against Sengun and Adams. That was one of their better hustle wins of the season, and they’ll again try to expose the Rockets’ slow foot speed on the other end.

Are the Lakers ready for zone and switching?

Udoka potentially going all in on size and trying to crush opponents on the glass is another interesting layer of this matchup. The Rockets have already logged 521 possessions with both Sengun and Adams on the floor (see orange blocks in the chart below), and have also paired Sengun with Clint Capela at times.

Source: pbpstats

With those lineups, Udoka often reverts to zone defense, and the Rockets currently rank second in zone defense frequency. The Lakers haven’t faced much zone this season, so Redick and his team will have to be ready and sharp against it tonight.

Personally, I would be more worried if the Rockets go small, with Durant, Smith Jr., Eason, and Thompson in long, switch-everything lineups, than with them having several targets for Dončić, Reaves, and James on the floor. The Lakers have excelled this season against hedge and aggressive schemes, but they tend to get too stagnant, too ISO-heavy, and too reliant on hero shots against switching defenses.

The Rockets’ ability to change styles, and how the Lakers deal with it, adds another interesting layer to this already intriguing matchup.

Final thoughts

After the last disappointing blowout loss against the Suns, I wrote about system breakdowns and the Lakers’ need for deep introspection. Their flaws feel so evident and so hard to overcome that a major reshuffle seems necessary to address them.

Will tonight’s game prove me wrong and bring hope? Or will it deepen those concerns and reinforce the belief in that diagnosis?

Let’s see how it plays out on the biggest NBA regular-season stage.

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