The NBA Trade Deadline has now passed and, other than waiving a player to add a last minute surprise buyout candidate, the Lakers now have their complete 15-player roster for the regular season stretch run and playoffs.
Despite delaying their roster makeover until next summer when they’ll have 3 tradable first round picks and $60 million in cap space, the Lakers still need to finish this season strong to save Pelinka’s and Redick’s jobs. Right now, the Lakers are 33–21, #5 seed in the West, and #9 team in the league. To survive this gap year, the Lakers will need to revamp their starting and bench lineups to better optimize and balance their talent.
Pelinka and Redick face difficult situations as they were not hired by Mark Walter and only have the rest of the season and the playoffs to show they deserve to still be in charge for next summer’s extreme roster makeover.
Since landing Luka, Pelinka has wasted 2 trade deadlines and 1 offseason without adding an established starter. Meanwhile, Redick has done a good job in the regular season but needs to prove he can win in the playoffs.
The only solution to salvage this situation is to replace the current no-defense Big Three starting lineup that has a negative net rating and the current inefficient no-offense bench that ranks #30 in points per game.
Instead of a star-studded starting lineup and weak bench, the Lakers must listen to the data, which says they can build two elite balanced data-driven 5-man lineups, one around Luka and Austin and a second around LeBron.
Let’s review the Lakers’ 15-man roster for regular season stretch run and playoffs and see what the numbers say are the team’s best options to build an elite competitive starting lineup and rotation to salvage this gap year.
WHAT DO THE NUMBERS SAY?
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Despite expectations they would be an offensive juggernaut, the numbers say the Lakers’ Big Three of Doncic, Reaves, and James has been a major disappointment, recording a -9.6 net rating in 10 games and 152 minutes.
The harsh reality is starting Luka, Austin, and LeBron together is not a winning strategy. Playing three offense-first stars who need the ball in their hands to excel is both redundant and doomed to be horrible defensively.
The above chart not only says LeBron is not a good fit playing next to Luka and Austin but also that he and Luka or he and Austin can’t win the minutes they’re on the court together as a duo. Lakers are losing LeBron minutes.
The Lakers brain trust has a major decision to make during the All-Star break. Do they really write this year off as a gap year and keep starting the Big Three? Or do they sell LeBron that coming off the bench is the answer.
Nobody’s saying LeBron’s not good enough to start or that he would not play the same minutes or close games. We’re talking about putting him on the court in winning lineups where he’s the first rather than third option.
The numbers say the Lakers should create two new star-driven lineups, one featuring Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves to get the team off to a good start and one featuring LeBron James to dominate the middle and end of games.
Luka and Austin don’t need a third star. They need a bouncy center for vertical space and lethal shooter for horizontal space. LeBron doesn’t need a second star. When Luka and Austin rest, give him the ball, let him work.
The numbers say it’s time for the Lakers to move on from their offense-first Big Three starting lineup and weak bench and switch to a dynamic Doncic and Reaves starting lineup and elite starter-quality James backup lineup.
WHO SHOULD START
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Building a new starting lineup around Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves should be easy as the duo has an offensive rating of 117.3, defensive rating of 110.6, and net rating of +6.7 in 19 games and 466 minutes together.
Since the Lakers will start Luka Doncic at point guard and Austin Reaves at shooting guard, they need to add a starting small forward, power forward, and center with good positional size, shooting, rebounding, and defense.
Strategically, the Lakers should view the remaining 28 games in the season as their ramp up for the playoffs and only invest playing time in players whom they believe can finish the season strong and shine in the playoffs.
The Lakers best option as a two-way 3&D starting small forward is Jake LaRavia. At 6′ 7″ with a 6′ 10″ wingspan, Jake’s shown promise as a potential future star role player with positional size and elite defensive versatility.
To better match up against bigger lineups, the Lakers should opt for a two-bigs lineup rather than a traditional power forward and center. They need a pair of versatile bigs who can stretch the floor vertically and horizontally.
With LeBron James moving to the bench, this is the perfect time to start Jaxson Hayes and move Deandre Ayton to the bench to play with LeBron. Hayes’ play has earned a level of trust at center that Ayton’s simply has not.
The ideal second big to play next to Jaxson Hayes should be Maxi Kleber, who’s healthy and thriving. Kleber and Hayes played 47 minutes in 9 games with a 114.7 offensive rating, 105.3 defensive rating, and +9.4 net rating.
The Lakers should revamp their starting lineup for more positional size, 3-point shooting, and team defense. The new Lakers’ starters should be Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Jake LaRavia, Maxi Kleber, and Jaxson Hayes.
WHO SHOULD COME OFF BENCH?
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The numbers say LeBron James’ best 5-man lineup this season was playing with Smart, Vanderbilt, Ayton, and Hachimura, where they posted an elite 124.3 offensive rating, 102.6 defensive rating, and +21.7 net rating.
While they only played 19 minutes in 7 games, this 5-man lineup or a variation with Kennard replacing Vanderbilt should become the ultimate lineup target as the Lakers organically sub out starters for bench players.
While they won’t be using hockey substitutions, the Lakers want opposing teams to spend 90% of the game facing their new Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves led starting lineup or their new LeBron James led bench lineup.
During the final 28 games, the Lakers’ top priority is to develop the kind of chemistry and continuity they will need to salvage and survive the long regular season and then rally and win their way to the conference finals.
The Lakers need both the Luka and Austin starting lineup as well as the LeBron led bench lineup together to excel and play most of the 48 minutes of playing time in the 28 games remaining in the 2025–26 NBA Season.
Right now, the Lakers rank #28 in the league in bench scoring at 115.9 ppg. One of the things that makes this new bench lineup so dangerous is all of the bench players except Kennard have experience playing with LeBron.
The James fivesome will likely be so good that they may steal minutes from the Luka and Austin fivesome. LeBron may ultimately play fewer minutes because of not starting but his impact on closing wins could be greater.
The Lakers should revamp their bench lineup for more size, shooting, and defense. The Lakers’ new bench lineup should include Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James, and Deandre Ayton.
In terms of the small forward issue…LaRavia needs to recapture his early season impact for me to be all in on him as a starter. His 3 point FG% has fallen steadily and hopefully the break gets his legs back under him. I’m pretty sure this is the most he’s ever played so it’s not surprising he’s hitting a bit of a wall. The great thing about Rui is he recognized quickly that, especially if he wants to stay in LA, he needs to be flexible and work with the staff as to what his best role is. I, too, think he’s best used coming off the bench. Vando is intriguing to me, if he would just hit the corner 3 a little better it’d be a no-brainer. Still, as of now, I’d go with Jake until he shows he’s not going to turn that shooting around because when it comes to intangibles and hustle I give the edge to Vando.
Jake’s certainly not a slam dunk and that position will hopefully become Peyton Watson’s position after next summer. He’s our elite 3&D wing of the future imo.
Jake reminds me of last year Konnecht. : (
Good post Tom. I like the idea of splitting up the trio of Luka, James & Reaves. However, if one of them gets moved to the bench, my suspicion is that it would be Reaves. This would mean replacing him with either Smart or Kennard, IMO. If I’m being completely honest, I’m not sure Reddick or the front office has the cajones or respect to pull this off. Too many agendas and legends. Reaves, Smart, Kleber, Ayton, Hayes, Rui and others are all hoping for extensions or raises from somewhere next season. We can’t give all of them what they want.
Austin has come off the bench the last few games and it’s brought a ton of stability so your reasoning is sound. I think he knows we’re going to go all out to keep him or he’s going to get his money from us or be signed and traded somewhere he can be the first option, basically. So, in theory and also due to the hamstring/calf injuries he’s sustained, he makes the mistake of sense to get the ask to come off the bench.
LeBron wouldn’t be asked, he’d have to volunteer. Honestly, with the amount of time and effort he puts in to being NBA ready it would be an affront and all but guarantee he plays elsewhere next season. The Lakers have gone out of their way to signal how important it is to them he retire a Laker. Also, at his age, I think you open the door to increased soft tissue injury if he warms in pregame, sits, and comes back in. Keep those muscles moving.
Reaves is obviously the other option but the problem is Luka and Austin win their minutes whereas Luka and LeBron don’t. There’s also the issue of who is part of the future and who isn’t.
Lakers need the cap space so LeBron is gone for sure imo. Lakers would be making a huge mistake by keeping the big three for the rest of the season or by going with Luka and LeBron over Luka and Austin. Last thing you want is to alienate Reaves so you lose him.
I wouldn’t ditch LBJ if he gives a HUGE Home Team Discount.
Lastly, having Ayton come off the bench means you might as well not play him. He’ll pout and suddenly become just injured enough not to play for stretches at a time. We can’t afford that. He’s been a team guy, not moping about being benched to close a lot of games, so I’m cool with him starting. He can more evenly split the PT with Hayes who has been great as a Laker, especially for the price point. Jax has a lot of holes in his game and he’s not a good playoff center but he is a great regular season center for Luka. Like Rui he’s accepted a role, we can address him starting in the off season if we can keep him.
Maybe, but starting him is essentially giving up on the season. Lakers need a rim protection and floor spacing from their future centers. That’s not Ayton imo, although he does some things well.
The big thing is LeBron and Deandre will be playing with the guys who fit them best and who were the highest net rating of any LeBron lineup. This is really a second starting lineup for Lakers.
My guess is JJ stays with Big Three and we lose in first or second round as the Lakers turn this into a sure gap year. That would be disappointing and mean the Lakers were ignoring the numbers rather than letting the data drive their decisions. But then that’s old news when it comes to the Lakers.
I think Laker upper management knew this season was going to play out pretty much exactly as it has so far. Simply put, we just didn’t have the pieces in place to capitalize on Luka unexpectedly falling into our lap overnight the way he did. Especially since the trade cost us the only viable 2-way players on our roster in AD & Max Christie.They knew we were gonna have to punt on this season and try to load up this summer. Re-arranging the deck chairs can only hide very little of the bad roster construction we currently have. The real killer was that rescinded trade for Mark Williams. At least that would have been a huge help at the center spot while losing a guy like Knecht who can’t even crack this limited lineup….