FROM ABOVE ARTICLE:

The five factors that will seal the Los Angeles Lakers’ playoff fate:

Factor 1: The playoff matchup lottery: why seeding is everything

The biggest factor influencing the Lakers is their final standing. They had an impressive March with nine consecutive wins, boosting them to the No. 3 seed. However, teams like Denver and Houston stayed close, so the Lakers didn’t secure their hold on No. 3. It now comes down to small margins, and they could drop to No. 5 by week’s end. The Lakers’ next game is against the Oklahoma City Thunder, whom they lost to in a blowout five days ago.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets will play the Memphis Grizzlies, and the Rockets will face the Phoenix Suns. The outlook isn’t very promising, especially after losing to the lottery-bound Dallas Mavericks in their first game after Doncic’s injury. Yet, a No. 3 finish still means facing the No. 6 seed, the Minnesota Timberwolves, in the first round.

With a current No. 4 spot, they would face the Rockets, which would be the same if they drop to No. 5—except they’d lose home-court advantage. Although it’s technically possible to fall to No. 6, that seems unlikely at this point. Essentially, it’s a race between two teams for the first round, and luckily for the Lakers, those potential opponents currently have exploitable weaknesses.

Vs. Timberwolves (3rd seed path): Ordinarily, Minnesota is one of the most dangerous teams in the postseason, no matter their position. They made the last two conference finals with Anthony Edwards averaging over 25 points in those two years. However, Edwards has battled knee problems and illness, missing multiple games down the stretch, including one that cost him award eligibility. There are no guarantees he will suit up for the first round, or even if he does, be at 100%.

Their offense dips without him, and the Lakers have already swept the season series 3-0, including a most recent 120-106 win in early March in a game where Doncic and Reaves combined for 62 points. But they will both be absent for the first round, meaning the Lakers will be shorthanded. So too will Minnesota, as Edwards is their best chance of going through, as such, a James-led Lakers team will have a strong chance to see off the Timberwolves in the first round.

Vs. Rockets (4th seed path): Houston has a mix of young and experienced players, which makes them less of an ideal matchup for the shorthanded Lakers. But the Lakers have also had the bragging rights in their regular-season head-to-head record, winning two of three matchups this season, with those two wins coming last month. But then again, the Doncic factor is evident, the Slovenian had 76 total points in both games. This one may come down to having home-court advantage to get a favorable start to the series.

The most favorable path for the Lakers at this point is securing the No. 3 seed. However, Houston was bundled out in the first round last year by the Golden State Warriors, who came through the play-in path, and that will be on their minds.

Factor 2: managing James’ minutes

The Lakers have played without Doncic or Reaves at some point, but having both of them out at the same time for an extended period will be a headache for head coach JJ Redick, whose only approach will be to maximize James because he is their only facilitator and offensive head at the moment. Redick may be forced to manage the minutes of the future Hall of Famer.

One approach is a motion offense and off-ball screens to keep James moving without the ball and preserve his legs for fourth quarters. But without Doncic or Reaves, there is no other proper ball handler on the current roster apart from James. The 41-year-old is averaging 33.5 minutes per game this season, a number that will go up in the playoffs.

The Lakers cannot afford to risk another injury. As such, they need to manage James’ minutes in the remaining regular-season games. He is listed as a GTD, which means he is questionable for the Lakers’ next game. Redick could decide to rest him for the postseason, but then again, there is the issue of finishing with a favorable seeding spot.

Factor 3: the Lakers’ supporting cast problem

The Lakers are stretched thin at the moment, and as such, bench players like Jake LaRavia and Jaxson Hayes will start games and log more minutes than usual. DeAndre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, and Marcus Smart are the main core at the moment, together with James. However, Smart is still nursing an ankle injury, and if he returns, he will join James as day-to-day.

There isn’t much for Redick to fall back on, with a depth that lacks playoff experience. The game plan will have to start and end with James, whose usage rate will go up, but Redick can turn the supporting cast into efficient connectors by giving their 41-year-old superstar enough ISO possession. He is no longer the same explosive self as years back, but James can still cause damage to the opposition defense.

Factor 4: James’ proven carry jobs … but with a brutal age caveat
James has been here before, at least a couple of times, actually.

In 2007, he dragged the Cleveland Cavaliers to the NBA Finals with zero All-Star help while averaging 25.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 8.0 assists in the playoffs. Over a decade later in 2018, he took the Cavaliers to the finals again without the star power that won the championship in 2016. He averaged 33.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 8.4 assists in the Eastern Conference finals; his team eliminated the Boston Celtics in seven games.

He has taken unlikely teams within earshot of glory, and this Lakers team, without Doncic and Reaves, can be classified as an unlikely team. But James is 41 now, far from his prime, and it will be a tall ask for him to maintain a consistent showing in at least four games in a series against younger and athletic teams like the Wolves and Rockets.

But one thing that can never be undermined is James’ mental fortitude during the playoffs. He’s perhaps the greatest supercomputer the game has ever seen. There’s that upside for Los Angeles.

Factor 5: Doncic’s speedy return

Doncic traveled to Europe on Monday to seek a solution to his Grade 2 hamstring strain. The plan is to move up his recovery timeline by using modern procedures. If it works out well, he will be back on the floor in less time than projected, even if not at 100%.

It appears the Lakers will be willing to risk their Slovenian superstar to chase a deeper postseason run. This was finally feeling like a year in which they could go one better, especially after that run in March when it looked like they could win against just about any team. However, that hope has died down with those injuries. But if they can manage to see off the first round and have Doncic available for the second, they will be seen as contenders once more.

The harsh truth is that James may have redefined greatness in the playoffs for two decades, but he cannot carry this Lakers team to a title completely alone, at least not at his age.

The injuries to Doncic and Reaves exposed the fact that L.A. has a serious depth issue, one they have to rectify during the offseason. For now, they have the final few regular-season games to look forward to and the first round of the postseason.

If they can manage to lock the No. 3 seed, Redick deploys a smart scheme, and the supporting cast stays committed to pivoting through James, he could channel that 2007 and 2018 playoff spirit for one more run.

JJ Redick discussing Luke Kennard's game on @SpectrumSN:"It's easy because he's a white guy that shoots 3s to just think he's just a shooter. That's just the reality of the situation. I'm sure every time he checked into an AAU tournament in eighth grade, everybody screamed,…— Lakers Nation (@LakersNation) April 10, 2026

Another impressive showing of the wider offensive game of Luke Kennard, who’s been the NBA’s best 3-point sniper, but asked by JJ Redick to play a ton on the ball w/recent injuries. He has 28 assists in 4 games since Luka/Reaves got hurt, to 4 turnovers, plus 6 steals. https://t.co/Bm5SkFxWDe— Mike Trudell (@LakersReporter) April 10, 2026

Udonis Haslem made sure to pick up & cement DeAndre Ayton’s confidence in himself after Ayton had 21 Points in a Lakers WIN vs. Warriors 🗣️“I want you to know that you are still that guy. You have to shift your focus a little bit & there’s other things you have to do to help… pic.twitter.com/KrqZiFMVNM— Courtside Buzz (@CourtsideBuzzX) April 10, 2026