Lakerholics

The basketball gods have not yet given up on the Los Angeles Lakers. They’ve just raised the bar on the kind of heroics that are going to be required for the Lakers to pull off a miraculous championship run.

Right now, the Lakers’ only path to this year’s championship is to pull off a rare 1–3 comeback by beating the Timberwolves 3 straight playoff games, something that’s only been done 13 times and only once by the Lakers. However, the Lakers have two things going for them that give them a remote chance to beat the Wolves 3 straight games: LeBron, who pulled off a 1–3 comeback in the NBA Finals and home court in 2 of the 3 games left.

So while the basketball gods did not intervene to prevent the zebras from stealing Game 4 from the Lakers, they did leave the purple and gold with a challenging-but-not-impossible path to survive the first round of playoffs.
The key game is obviously Game 5 in Los Angeles on Wednesday night. The Lakers desperately need a wire-to-wire big win to restore their confidence and keep the series alive. Win that game, go 2–3, and everything changes.

The Lakers are then within one game of tying the series and regaining home court advantage. Yes, they do have to win Game 6 on Friday night in Minnesota but if they do, they suddenly turn the tables on the Wolves.
The series then returns to Los Angeles on Sunday tied 3–3 with the Lakers once again the favorite to move on. That’s the dramatic comeback ending the basketball gods are demanding this year from the Los Angeles Lakers.

So the good news is the Lakers still have a chance to win a championship but they will need to play much better on offense and defense than they played in the first four games. So let’s look at what the Lakers need to do.

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1. PLAY SMALL BALL

There is no question the Lakers best strategy in this series is to play small ball. JJ Redick probably should have benched Jaxson Hayes earlier as the spacing DFS provides makes the half court offense so much better.

2. SLOW GAME DOWN

Getting into a run-and-gun high scoring game against the Wolves is not going to be to the Lakers’ advantage. No live ball turnovers or leaking out to fast break. End every defensive possession with a rebound.

3. CUT DOWN ON FOULS

The Wolves are shooting 2 more free throws per game than the Lakers, a reversal over the regular season when L.A. averaged 2 more free throws per game than Minnesota. L.A. needs to defend with feet, not hands.

4. PLAY MORE PLAYERS

JJ’s big gamble on playing his Death Lineup the entire second half would have paid off big had it worked and they still have Wednesday to recover. Going forward, the Lakers need to play more players to avoid injuries.

5. SHOOT MORE THREES

The Lakers biggest differential so far in the Timberwolves series has been their +5.1 ppg in 3-point shooting differential. There is no other area where the Lakers can potentially improve their performance than threes.

Down 1 game to 2 to the Wolves, the Lakers are already being forced to play their second ‘Must Win’ game in just their fourth playoff game tomorrow. Win and Lakers are back on track. Lose and everybody’s legacy crumbles.

Will Luka Doncic be over his stomach illness and ready to play Sunday? Will LeBron James be able to repeat his terrific performance after playing heavy minutes and carrying a heavy load during Friday night’s tough loss? What changes will the Lakers’ JJ Redick and the Timberwolves Chris Finch have for their opponents on Sunday? Will the Lakers bench Jaxson Hayes and go small ball or will the Wolves bench Gobert in favor of Naz Reid?

If Luka and LeBron can somehow will the Lakers to victory on Sunday, LA would not only tie the series at 2 games apiece but also regain home court advantage and be headed back to LA for 2 of the 3 games left in the series.
A win on Sunday would leave the Lakers perfectly positioned to make a deep playoff run, playing series vs. the Timberwolves, Rockets, Thunder, and likely Celtics while avoiding the Clippers, Nuggets, and Warriors.

But lose on Sunday and suddenly what looked like a possible Cinderella winning-the-big-prize ending for LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Rob Pelinka, JJ Redick, and the Lakers becomes an embarrassing first round exit.
But give credit to Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves. They may be young and lack experience but they’ve also been the ones who’ve come through when the game was on the line, not the Lakers veterans.

Sunday’s game is a ‘Must Win’ game to save the Los Angeles Lakers’ season and the legacies of their superstars. Here are 5 changes JJ Redick can make to help win the Lakers win Game 4 and spark a deep championship run.

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1. PLAY SMALL BALL

The time’s come for JJ Redick to fully embrace small ball and analytics and start Dorian Finney-Smith and Gabe Vincent in place of Jaxson Hayes and Rui Hachimura to surround Luka, LeBron, and Austin with more shooting.

In 3 playoff games, the Lakers current starting lineup of Doncic, Reaves, Hachimura, James, and Hayes has an offensive rating of 87.8, defensive rating of 136.6, and net rating of -48.8. It’s LA’s 7th worst 5-man lineup.
In contrast, the 5-man lineup of Doncic, Vincent, Reaves, Finney-Smith, and James has an offensive rating of 186.7, a defensive rating of 75.0, and a net rating of +111.7, It’s the Lakers’ top rated 5-man lineup in the playoffs.

The Lakers cannot afford to play from behind in Game 4 like they did in Game 3. Playing from behind just takes too much out of a team. Getting off to a great start in Game 4 will be critical for the Lakers chances to win.

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2. SLOW GAME DOWN

The Lakers cannot beat the Wolves if they continue to making live ball turnovers that lead to easy fast break points. The Lakers 19 turnovers resulted in 28 Timberwolves points and was the main reason for losing.

Instead of leaking out trying to get out and run, the Lakers need to focus on securing the possession ending rebound and taking good care of the ball in transition so as not to cough up those live ball turnovers the are killers.
The Lakers need to understand that low-scoring games are to their benefit as the older and less athletic team whereas high-scoring games are likely more beneficial to the younger and more athletic Timberwolves players.

The Lakers want to run when the opportunity presents itself, which will usually be off a live ball turnover they create. Their first priority should be to slow the game down to avoid needless turnovers and control the pace.

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3. CUT DOWN ON FOULS

The Timberwolves are not only winning the physicality battle but have also prevented the Lakers from getting their usual advantage via made free throws. So far, the Lakers have shot 56 free throws to the Wolves 55.

The Wolves are counting on the refs not being able to call enough fouls to deter them if they are overly physical. The Lakers must be careful to keep their hands in like against SGA to cut down on free throws the Wolves get.
In a critical Game 4, the Lakers need every edge they can get. During the regular season, they received 23.2 FTA per game while their opponents only received 20.5 FTA per game, a differential of 2.7 points per game.

The Lakers want to slow the game down without junking it up and avoiding sending their opponents to the free throw line has be be a major objective during Game 4. The Lakers also need to make their free throws in Game 4.

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4. STOP TARGETING RUDY

Hopefully, Luka will be fully recovered from his illness and ready to go. Rather than pounding the ball looking to make Rudy look foolish, Luka needs to focus on getting into the offense and sharing the ball earlier.

Game 4 is a game where the Lakers will need the best of both of their superstars if they are going to win and regain home court advantage. Playing Luka off the court actually hurts the Lakers in the long run.
We need the Luka and LeBron to each post 30/10/10 games and Austin to bounce back with a 20/5/5 game. The focus by Luka and LeBron has to be to score as well as get their teammates going with easy baskets off assists.

This is the Lakers’ second ‘Must Win’ game out of four games and, win or lose, Game 5 will likely be an even more important ‘Must Win’ game. Lakers don’t have time to be fooling around trying to embarrass Rudy Gobert.

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5. SHOOT MORE THREES

The Lakers need to take and make more threes. At least 50 attempts per game. It’s the only way they can counter their lack of front court positional size compared to the Wolves’ Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid center rotation

The Lakers won the 3-point differential Friday night, making 17 of 40 vs. Wolves 13 of 36 threes. Unfortunately, they used so much energy coming back that they were unable to match the Wolves’ threes down the stretch.
Tomorrow, the Lakers need to surround Luka, LeBron, and Austin with 3-point shooters and focus on slowing the game down, running smart plays, freely sharing the ball, and finding and making wide-open 3-point shots.

The Lakers recorded 17 makes out of 40 takes from deep on Friday night. This Sunday, look for them to make 20 threes out of 50 attempts as they win Game 4 wire-to-wire to setup a return to Los Angeles for a killer Game 5.

When the dust has settled, JJ Redick and the Lakers may finally realize their shocking Game 1 blowout loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves was exactly what they needed to get them playing championship basketball.

The true test of character for players and teams is how do you react when you get punched in the face in the playoffs and dominated by a team you were projected to easily defeat in the first round in 5 or 6 games at most? The Timberwolves dominated the Lakers the same way L.A. dominated OKC. Just like the Thunder could not stop the Lakers’ barrage of threes, the Lakers were helpless as the Timberwolves rained threes upon them.

Ironically, after losing Game 1 of their 2020 first round playoff series vs. the Trailblazers, the Lakers bounced back with 4-straight wins to beat Portland 4–1 in a gentlemen’s sweep on their way to their 17th NBA championship. That’s exactly how the Lakers should respond to the Timberwolves Game 1 of this year’s first round series. They need to slap the insurgent Wolves hard and put them back in their proper place with 4 straight blowout wins.

Right now, the Lakers are the NBA’s version of a an old joke with a stale punch line. The Wolves were so dominant that they now have become the betting favorites to defeat the Lakers in their first round playoff series.
The Lakers were the only home playoff team to lose home court advantage on opening night. If they lose tonight, they would have to win 4 out of the next 5 games with 3 of them being in Minnesota. Lakers must win tonight.

We find out tonight if JJ Redick and the Los Angeles Lakers are for real. Two games into the playoffs and Lakers face a legitimate ‘Must Win’ game. That’s what parity and the changing of the guard have done to the NBA.

Redick’s surprise late-season gamble to transform the Lakers’ offense into a volume 3-point shooting juggernaut and their defense into a trapping and swarming small ball attack paid off big as L.A. won 50 games and #3 seed.

The dramatic changes allowed the Lakers to win 50 games, the #3 seed in the West, and what is generally considered to be a very favorable possible path to the NBA Finals, especially considering the West is so challenging. JJ’s timing was perfect. Luka transformed L.A.’s offense into a 3-point juggernaut while their LeBron-powered aggressive swarming, trapping small ball defense held 3 elite teams under 100 points to close the season.

Once the dust settled after their 8-game run, the Lakers had done the unthinkable and actually transformed themselves into a 3-point offensive juggernaut that was taking and making 5 more 3-point shots per game.
With a healthy, better conditioned Luka Doncic running the offense and a healthy, repurposed LeBron James choreographing their swarming small ball defense, the Lakers finished the regular season as a playoff nightmare.

Before their stretch run, the Lakers were making 0.6 fewer 3PM per game for a negative differential of -1.8 points per game. During the run, L.A. made 3.2 more 3PM per game for a positive differential of +9.6 points. Redick’s smart decision to go all-in on volume 3-point shooting and aggressive small ball defense was a recognition the only realistic way L.A. could win the NBA championship was to win the 3-point war with Boston.

Let’s look closer at the Lakers’ dramatic stretch run to lock up 50 wins and the #3 seed in the West and whether their juggernaut 3-point shooting and swarming rotating small ball defense will be sustainable in the playoffs.

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Lakers’ Offense Leads NBA in Made Threes Down Stretch

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The Lakers started their 8-game stretch run with a 44–29 record and #4 seed in the West but facing the league’s toughest closing schedule with critical pairs of games vs. the #1 OKC Thunder and #2 Houston Rockets.

The 2024–25 regular season had been a constant roller coaster for the Lakers as untimely injuries to James, Davis, and Doncic and trades for Finney-Smith and Doncic roiled their roster and disrupted their season.
Despite the changes and setbacks, Redick remained committed to fully modernizing the Lakers’ old school offense, embracing the 3-point era, and committing the team to taking and making a high volume of threes.

Over the Lakers’ next 8-games, L.A. went all-in on becoming the NBA’s hottest and most potent offensive juggernaut led by a dynamic playmaking and scoring Big Three of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves.
Before their stretch run, the Lakers offense was 14th (114.3), defense 14th (113.6), and net rating 14th (+0.7). During their stretch run, their offense was 1st in the NBA (124.6), defense 15th (114.4), and net rating 7th (+10.2).

During their 8-game stretch run, the Lakers raised their 3PM from 12.9 to 17.5 per game, their 3PA from 35.9 to 41.3 per game, and their 3P% from 36.0% to 41.4%, creating a positive +9.6 points 3-point shooting differential.
While a small sample size, the eye test confirmed advanced stats. Anybody watching could see Luka was creating waves of wide-open 3-point shots for the Lakers. L.A.’s +10.2 net rating was due to their 3-point differential.

The Lakers have the playmakers and dead-eye shooters to prove their sizzling 3-point shooting was not just a hot streak but a replicable outcome of the elite pacing and spacing they can sustain throughout the playoffs.

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Lakers’ Swarming Small Ball Defense Shuts Down Stars

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While it was the Lakers’ juggernaut 3-point shooting that propelled them to a 50-win season and #3 seed in the West, the Lakers also had opportunities to showcase their swarming small ball defense during their stretch run.

The first opponent the Lakers held under 100 points down the stretch was the #2 seed Houston Rockets, whom the Lakers beat 104–98, holding them defensively to 41.6% from the field and 31.3% from deep in a close game.
The Lakers held Rockets’ guards Jalen Green and Fred Van Fleet to single digits and Houston big men Alperen Sengun and Dillon Brooks to 16 and 14 points. The Lakers aggressive small ball team defense shut Rockets down.

The Lakers’ best defensive effort was their 126–99 stomping of the #1 seed Thunder in OKC, where the Lakers aggressive trapping small ball defense held the Thunder to just 43.3% from the field and just 32.4% from deep.
The Thunder’s loss was biggest of the season. The Lakers shut down OKC’s interior and perimeter offense and dominated them offensively, winning the 3-point war by 30 points and raising serious questions about OKC.

The third opponent the Lakers held below 100 points down the stretch was the Mavericks in Luka Doncic’s first return to Dallas after the big trade, where the Lakers proceeded to throttle AD and the Mavericks 112–97.
The Lakers not only had Luka’s back as he dominated the game, scoring 31 in the first half and 45 for the full game. They also shut down the Mavs’ offense and held Anthony Davis to just 13 points on 5 of 13 shooting.

Like with their offense, the Lakers have finally have their full defense available, including the 4 big wing defenders in Vanderbilt, Hachimura, Finney-Smith, and James, who are the fire that makes their defense run.

The Sunday and Tuesday mini-series in OKC between the superstar-driven Lakers and the deep young juggernaut Thunder promises to be a live sneak preview of a possible Western Conference Finals between the two teams.

With just five games left in the regular season, the Lakers face a daunting trial by fire that could catapult them up to #2 seed in the West if they win out or see them plummet into the Play-In if the lose 4 or 5 of the games. That 3 of their remaining 5 games include 2 road games against the #1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder and a home game against the #2 seed Houston Rockets only make the Lakers’ remaining games even more challenging.

Sunday afternoon’s first game of the mini-series should give us a first indication how the LeBron James and Luka Doncic led Lakers matchup with the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen William driven Thunder.
Statistically, the Thunder are a different tier of NBA teams than the Lakers. While the L.A. has had the #13 ranked offense and defense since trading for Luka Doncic on February 1, OKC had the #1 offense and defense.

Fortunately for L.A., the game is not played on paper and the Lakers and LeBron James have the firsthand experience and confidence you only get from actually winning championships, which the Thunder still do not.
The mini-series in OKC should be the two biggest games of the year for both teams and a fascinating sneak preview of what we might see if the Lakers and Thunder end up meeting in the Western Conference Finals.

So let’s review the Lakers-Thunder matchup, what each team’s advantages and disadvantages are, what each team must do to sweep the mini-series, and what the impact will be should the two teams meet in the playoffs

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WHY LAKERS SHOULD SWEEP TWO-GAME MINI-SERIES

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The 2 road games tomorrow and Tuesday night against the Thunder have unfortunately become ‘must win’ games for the Lakers, who are looking to hold the #3 seed in the West despite a tough 5-game closing schedule.

While the Lakers desperately need to win their last 5 games to hold the #3 seed, the 54-win Thunder no longer have a shot at 60 wins or any pressing motivation to beat the Lakers other than pride and getting a mental edge.
Despite the Lakers desperately needing to win and the Thunder not, OKC has been so dominant in the West throughout this season that they have been installed as close to 10-point favorites to win Saturday’s first game.

In a perfect world, the Lakers would prefer to keep their playoff plans close to the vest instead of having to go all-in late in the regular season to win two critical games against the Thunder with every weapon in their arsenal.
Instead, the Lakers need to come with a greater urgency than any other time this season. They need their Big Three of James, Doncic, and Reaves to have a juggernaut night and their key role players to have career games.

While the Thunder have maybe the deepest and most talented roster in the league, they have not actually experienced how to win championships the way that LeBron James has. They may very well still be a year away.
A healthy LeBron James and Luka Doncic will be an excellent challenge for the young, inexperienced Thunder to use as pre-playoff measuring stick. It will be interesting to see if JJ Redick can outcoach OKC’s Mark Daigneault.

In the end, the Lakers will count on the iconic basketball skills, IQ’s, experience, and leadership of their generational superstars LeBron James and Luka Doncic to overcome the young, playoff inexperienced Thunder.