Even without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, the Lakers still possess the advantages that powered their dominating March back-to-back sweep of the Rockets — better defense, more made threes, more made free throws.
While the Lakers must limit turnovers and control defensive backboards, the formula to beat the Rockets is simply do what they did back in March when they swept back-to-back road games, winning 100–92 & 124–116. During that back-to-back 2-game sweep, the Lakers dominated the Rockets at both ends of the court. They posted a solid offensive rating of 118.5 and elite defensive rating of 111.2 for a dominant net rating of +7.3 points.
Defensively, the Lakers could even be better without Doncic and Reaves, who were never elite defensive players. The Lakers’ team defense should be slightly better with Vanderbilt and Kennard replacing Doncic and Reaves.
Offensively is where the LA will miss Doncic and Reaves, whose volume 3-point shooting and ability to draw fouls and free throws sets an impossibly high bar for James, Ayton, Smart, Kennard, and Hachimura to exceed.
Unfortunately, the pundits and oddsmakers have totally underestimated the Lakers. They’ve forgotten how good LeBron James is when in playoff mode and how ‘playing hard’ has become the Lakers’ secret ‘cheat code.’
While he’s unlikely at 41-years old to lead the Lakers to a championship without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, LeBron James does still have enough left in the tank to lead LA to upset Houston in the first round.
Let’s review the three major tactical advantages the Lakers must maintain without Doncic and Reaves to defeat the Rockets and extend the playoffs to second round — better defense, more threes, and more free throws.
1. Better Defense
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Last month, the Lakers’ dramatically improved defense shut down Kevin Durant and Houston’s point-guard-less offense in back-to-back road wins. LA’s defense does not need Luka Doncic or Austin Reaves to do that again.
The Rockets’ greatest vulnerabilities are their lack of an elite playmaker and questionable half-court decision-making on offense. In the teams’ games last month, the Lakers’ relentless trapping of KD won both games.
The 100–92 victory was a defensive war where LA forced Houston into 24 turnovers and held KD to just 2 points in the 2nd half. The 124–116 win was more of a shootout where the Lakers ended up blocking 8 Rockets shots.
Other than depth, Vanderbilt and Kennard replacing Doncic and Reaves shouldn’t hurt LA’s defense. While Doncic, Reaves, and Kennard are not great defenders, Vanderbilt is an elite individual point-of-attack defender.
For the back-to-back games in March, the Lakers posted an elite defensive rating of 111.2 compared to the Rocket’s subpar defensive rating of 118.5. The Lakers net rating for the two wins was the difference: +7.3 points.
The Lakers generated a 112.4 defensive rating over their last 24 games, which was the 9th best in the league for that period. During the 2-game March stretch vs. Rockets, LA posted a similar 111.2 defensive rating.
The Lakers will definitely need to both minimize their turnovers to prevent fast break points by the Rockets’ offense and also push the ball in transition to counter an overly aggressive offensive rebounding attack by Houston.
While missing Luka and Austin will hurt the Lakers’ defensive depth, defense is the one advantage the Lakers have over the Rocket that will not be seriously affected by missing Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.
2. More Made Threes
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In March, the Lakers back-to-back sweep was powered by outshooting the Rockets from deep by 3.5 threes and 10.5 points per game. Doncic averaged 5.5 and Reaves 0.5 made threes of 11.5 made threes per game by LA.
The Lakers’ major challenge will be replacing Luka Doncic’s 5.5 made threes per game, which puts immense 3-point shooting pressure on LeBron James, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Luke Kennard, and Jake LaRavia.
The Lakers are going to need each of those 5 players to make 1 extra three than they would normally do to insure they can replace Doncic’s 5.5 made threes per game vs. Houston. That’s a challenging but not impossible task.
The Lakers might consider minutes for Dalton Knecht or Bronny James, who both went off and made 5 of 6 and 3 of 4 from deep respectively in the team’s final regular season 131–107 demolition of the hapless Utah Jazz.
Winning the 3-point battle against the Houston Rockets without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves will be challenging to say the least. The only way the Lakers can accomplish that is every Lakers player shoots lights out.
In the 3 games the Lakers just played without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves to end the regular season, the Lakers shot a sizzling 47.0% from deep, averaging 13.0 made threes and 27.7 attempted threes per game.
For 3 games, Hachimura made 2.3, James Jr. 2.0, Knecht 2.0, Smith Jr. 2.0, James 1.7, LaRavia 1.3, Kennard 1.0, and Smart 0.5 threes per game. Obviously, Lakers need more threes from James, Smart, and Kennard.
To beat the Rockets, the Lakers need LeBron James, Luke Kennard, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Jake LaRavia, Nick Smith Jr., and Bronny James to replace the 6.0 threes per game Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves averaged.
3. More Made Free Throws
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The other major offensive factor that powered the Lakers to sweep the Rockets in their back-to-back March series was made free throws, as the Lakers averaged 17.5 free throws made to just 13.0 for the Rockets.
The Lakers will also greatly miss Doncic and Reaves’ ability to draw fouls and make free throws. In the March back-to-back wins, Doncic averaged 6.5 and Reaves 5.0 for 11.5 of the 17.5 free throws the Lakers averaged.
The good news is that other than 2.5 free throws made per game by James and LaRavia, no other Laker shot free throws other than Ayton and Hayes, who both averaged just 0.5 free throws made per game for the 2 games.
Obviously, getting to the line is going to be a challence without Luka and Austin. LeBron James, Marcus Smart, and Deandre Ayton are the three Lakers left capable of drawing fouls and shooting volume free throws.
The Lakers are going to need the referees to call the fouls when LeBron, Marcus, Deandre get into the paint and get hacked attacking the rim. Hopefully, knowing the situation, the zebras will look to protect LeBron.
During the final 3 games the Lakers played without Luka and Austin to close out the regular season, LA saw their average free throws made per game drop from 20.4 per game season average to just 14.0 per game.
When you combine the loss of Doncic and Reaves with the traditional hesitancy to call fouls in the playoffs, winning the free throws made battle will obviously be the toughest of the three challenges facing the Lakers.
If the Lakers hope to win their first round matchup with the Rockets, they’re going to need LeBron James, Marcus Smart, and Deandre Ayton to generate 17 to 18 made free throws by relentlessly attack the rim.
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