Lakerholics

At the heart of the Lakers’ vision for the future is Anthony Davis as a stretch five center. That’s why Frank Vogel wants him to shoot more threes per game and why the Lakers dumped traditional centers McGee and Howard.

While the Lakers don’t want Davis to endure the physical wear-and-tear of playing traditional low post centers in the paint, they clearly understand they’re at their best as a team when he is playing the five instead of the four. The stats and the eye test confirm this so the Lakers’ goal is to figure out how they can play him at the five for more minutes or even all of the time. Part of the answer is for Anthony Davis to become more of a stretch five.

While old school traditionalist complain that takes Davis away from the basket and dilutes his impact on offense, the reality is AD is best in space, where he can use his handle and gravity as a shooter to attack defenses. Playing Davis like a traditional low post center on offense presents the same problems as having him defend more rugged opposing centers in the paint. He’s more of a finesse player like Kareem than a power player like Shaq.

Instead, the Lakers have a vision for Anthony Davis where he is a stretch five on offense and a roaming defensive free safety and help rim protector on defense, which requires pairing him with bigs that complement him. Offensively, he needs a big who can stretch the floor like Gasol or Morris to create spacing to attack. Defensively, he needs a big like Morris or Harrell with the size and strength to hold their ground against opposing centers.

While the Lakers will miss McGee’s and Howard’s rim protection, they learned in the playoffs that traditional low post centers who clog the paint on offense and can’t guard on the perimeter on defense were unplayable. Ideally, the Lakers need a modern center like Indiana’s Myles Turner, who can stretch the floor on offense and protect the rim and guard the perimeter on defense. That may be the Lakers’ top priority going forward.

Meanwhile, the Lakers decided Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell would be better solutions to complement Anthony Davis than JaVale McGee or Dwight Howard as they obviously did not want to bring back either of them. Gasol has good 3-point shooting and playmaking ability but may not be able to defend in the paint or on the perimeter. Harrell, while undersized, has a mid-range shot and the energy and athleticism to be a plus defender.

While we’ve only played two regular season games, Gasol has struggled to have an impact while Harrell has been even better than the Lakers had hoped, providing relentless hustle and energy at both ends of the court. Hopefully, Gasol will start to play better though he could become this season’s JaVale McGee, who starts the first and third quarters. So far the best solution may be Harrell and Morris sharing time alongside Davis.

We’ve seen the same pattern so far in the Lakers’ first two games when Marc Gasol goes to the bench. Davis plays the five on offense but it’s Harrell or Morris who defend the opposing team’s center, leaving Davis to roam. It’s the perfect strategy to optimize Davis at both ends of the court with minimal wear-and-tear. Offensively, he operates best facing up his opponent in space. Defensively, he plays best as a help defender and shot blocker.

Right now Morris does a better job than Harrell defending the opposing team’s center but expect Trezz to become better as he becomes acclimated to the role and learns how to take advantage of playing alongside Anthony. While Harrell does not have the 3-point shooting stroke to stretch the defense like Morris does, he has his own gravity as a rebounder and shooter who can hit mid-range jumpers from the baseline and complement Davis.

For now, Frank Vogel will continue to encourage Anthony Davis to shoot the three ball and Markieff Morris and Montrezl Harrell will continue to defend opposing centers when Lakers go ‘small’ and AD becomes a stretch five. That’s why all the worry about the Gasol’s slow start and the Lakers letting McGee and Howard walk aren’t important in the short or long term. The Lakers have their plan for the future and it’s Anthony Davis as a stretch five.

The Los Angeles Lakers have been a bright beacon of hope for basketball fans throughout this dark and stormy 2020 so I’m hoping they’ll bring even more joy as we struggle through this Christmas without family and friends.

Best wishes to everybody in the Lakerholics family. May you enjoy a warm and wonderful holiday with loved ones safe and secure in your hearts if not with you. Here are the ten gifts I’m hoping the Lakers will give us tonight:

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1. A Win Over the Dallas Mavericks

Neither team wants to start the season 0–2 so both will be looking to rebound from disappointing opening games. Dallas lost in Phoenix 106–102. Lakers lost to Clippers 116–109 after championship ring ceremony.

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2. Less Than 100 Points for Mavs

Lakers defense was AWOL against the Clippers, especially when PG went supernova late in the third quarter and throughout the fourth quarter. Lakers need to show they can still play elite D despite the chance in centers.

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3. 35 Points for LeBron James

LeBron James will pass Kobe Bryant and become the NBA’s all-time leading Christmas day scorer in if he scores 35 points in today’s game against the Dallas Mavericks. Kobe leads with 395 points while LeBron has 361 points.

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4. Redemption Game for Marc Gasol

Gasol probably had the worst first game as a Laker of any elite player who donned a purple and gold uniform, posting 0 points, 0 rebounds, and 1 assist in 12 foul plagued minutes. Marc needs to redeem his rep tonight.

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5. Bounce Back game for Wes

Brought in to replace Danny Green’s shooting and defense, Wes struggled mightily in the Lakers loss to the Clippers, going 0–2 from deep and getting torched on D by Kawhi and PG. Wes needs big bounce back game tonight.

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6. Triple-Double for Dennis

Schroder got the start at point guard he wanted after coming off the bench for the Thunder the last two seasons and finishing second for the 6MOY award last season. Time for Dennis the Menace to solidify his starting role.

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7. Double-Double for Trezz

Harrell had an excellent opening game for the Lakers, posting 17 points and 10 rebounds in the loss to the Clippers, his former team. Looking for Trezz to continue to show he can man the Lakers’ backup center role tonight.

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8. Come Back Night for Alex

Alex had a poor night shooting and handling the ball against the Clippers, clanking his first three triples before finally making one and turning the ball over three times in critical situations. AC needs a big come back night.

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9. More Talen Horton-Tucker

Talen had an excellent opening game posting the team’s best net rating and second best plus/minus rating but only played 11 minutes. We need to see THT get at least 15 minutes in tonight’s game as the backup point guard.

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10. Everybody Safe and Healthy

Everybody remembers how LeBron’s groin injuring in the Christmas day blowout of the Warriors two years ago derailed the Lakers season. The last thing the Lakers want to see is any player get injured in tonight’s game.

Tonight is the perfect opportunity for Vogel to test sitting 2 or 3 players each game to create the best 8 or 9 man to lineup to matchup against opponents to solve deep roster, load management, and Covid-19 problems.

Faced with so many tough decisions as to whom to play and so little time to sort through the options, changing the starting lineup and rotations game to game could be the smartest way for the Lakers to move forward this season. It would not only allow Vogel to load the starting lineup with multiple players who can defend Leonard and George but also to create a starting lineup and rotations to take advantage of vulnerable Clippers defenders.

With Marcus Morris out, the Clippers will probably start with a lineup of Patrick Beverley, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Nicolas Batum, and Serge Ibaka. Vogel should start the lineup that best matches up against those five. While LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and probably Marc Gasol are going to start for the Lakers, Vogel has multiple options when it comes to whom to start at the point and shooting guard positions against the Clippers.

For example, a Lakers’ starting lineup of Talen Horton-Tucker, Kyle Kuzma, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Marc Gasol could create serious issues for the Clippers at both ends of the court and force them to make changes. That lineup gives the Lakers four defenders with size and length to guard Kawhi and PG, five shooters who can play five-out and stretch defenses, and three talented playmakers and two elite cutters to create ball movement.

Horton-Tucker is a nightmare matchup for Beverley and Kuzma a better matchup against George than KCP or Caruso. LeBron plays Kawhi as well as anybody in the league and there’s no way Batum can matchup against Davis. On the other hand, Vogel may like Schroder’s speed against Beverley and Matthews’ defense against George. There’s no obvious starters at point guard and shooting guard at this point in the season so why not matchup.

I would rather see the Lakers play an 8 or 9-man rotation where everybody plays enough to get into a rhythm and develop rapport with teammates than an 11-man rotation where 2 of 3 players end up getting token minutes. There’s no question matchups are key to beating the Clippers. I also love the idea of playing THT at point when Lou Williams is in the game. The Lakers’ roster is so deep and talented that Vogel has a plethora of options.

With just four preseason games and a deep roster, load management, and Covid-19 problems, tonight’s a perfect time for Frank Vogel to limit his rotations to the 8 or 9 players who best matchup against the Clippers.

After a brilliant offseason and undefeated preseason, the only questions facing the NBA defending champion Lakers now are how will Kyle Kuzma’s extension and Talen Horton-Tucker’s preseason affect the team’s rotations?

While neither is likely to be in the starting lineup when the Lakers kick off the season tomorrow night against their crosstown rival Clippers, Kuzma’s extension and THT’s breakout preseason could translate into more minutes. There’s no doubt the Lakers have doubled down on their belief Kyle Kuzma can be a big time contributor going forward and Talen Horton-Tucker has legitimate star potential and is ready to challenge for more playing time.

All of which further complicates the decisions facing Frank Vogel as he tries to figure out how to manage what appears to be an unusually deep and talented Lakers’ rotation with 11 players who deserve regular minutes. Fortunately, the saving grace for Vogel may be the NBA’s shortened and compressed regular season schedule and Lakers’ need to ease the load for 35-year old LeBron James and a team with little time off after winning.

One answer to Vogel’s dilemma may be to sit two or three players each game to reduce the rotation to a manageable eight or nine players and while load managing to keep the team fresh and healthy for the playoffs. This would allow the Lakers to play the lineups that best matchup against each opponent and guarantee all players always had enough minutes to develop good rhythm and strong rapport and chemistry with teammates.

Deploying shifting matchup rotations would also giee Vogel the opportunity to see which combinations of players worked best against potential playoff opponents to help narrow the Lakers’ rotations going into the postseason. Strategically, it’s a perfect fit for this season’s unique schedule featuring conference teams playing each other twice in a row to reduce travel. It also would prepare teams for possible rotation changes caused by Covid-19.

But let’s take a closer look on how Kyle Kuzma’s extension and Talen Horton-Tucker’s breakout preseason could affect the Lakers’ lineups and rotations and whose minutes and roles could be affected as a result:

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It’s definitely a vote of confidence and encouraging news for Kyle Kuzma that Rob Pelinka not only did not pull the trigger on a trade involving him this offseason but also signed him to a new 3-year $40 million extension. Since rookie extensions include poison pill restrictions making it hard to match salaries if a team trades the player before the extension kicks in, Kuzma is likely going to be with the Lakers for the entire 2020–21 season.

Kuzma’s rookie extension is interesting because it’s the first one the Lakers have given a player they drafted since Andrew Bynum back in 2008 and the first extension for a player on this roster who was not a Klutch Sports client. While the extension should take a load off Kuzma’s shoulders and give him confidence, expectations will continue to exceed what he’s delivered in the past and the pressure will be on him to show he’s worthy of the contract.

The challenge for Kuzma the last two years has been finding a role on the Lakers that would pay him what he’s worth considering he wants to be a starter but right now he’s stuck behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Players in today’s NBA can play the positions they can defend and Kyle Kuzma has shown promising potential as an elite defender against bigger wing players like James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Devin Booker.

Going forward, it will be interesting to see if Frank Vogel gives Kyle Kuzma more opportunities to play the two as he did during the preseason. Right now, Kuzma’s main role will be to backup LeBron off the bench at the three. But I also think we’ll continue to see Kuz get minutes at the two, especially when the Lakers face wing scorers too big for Caruso and KCP to handle. Playing the two could ultimately be Kuzma’s path to becoming a starter.

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Talen Horton-Tucker’s breakout preseason presents head coach Frank Vogel with the same challenge he faces with Kyle Kuzma: finding enough minutes for a player who could potentially become a star and a future Lakers’ starter. Since Talen will be a restricted free agent next summer, the Lakers need to learn how good he can be. Since they have his Early Bird Rights, they can only offer him the MLE though they can match any offer he might receive.

Like Kuzma, Horton-Tucker fills a role other players on the roster cannot fill. Should the Lakers start Schroder, Talen’s ability to get to the rim and make plays for others make him the team’s best option as backup point guard. That would leave Alex Caruso and Wes Matthews competing for the backup minutes at shooting guard role assuming KCP starts at the two, although Matthews is very capable of playing backup minutes at the three.

Horton-Tucker can also fill a valuable offensive and defensive roles as a backup at shooting guard and small forward because of his ability to get to the rim and defend bigger wing scorers with his length and physicality. Talen’s extensive skill set enables him to play three positions: point guard, shooting guard, and small forward. That versatility at both ends of the court could easily translate into more minutes for Horton-Tucker.

Finally, there’s no question Talen has star potential. His game is already leaps and bounds beyond what could be expected from the 20-year old second round draft pick and the Lakers clearly know and understand that. The Lakers coaching staff views Talen primarily as a point guard and will likely give him the backup minutes to prove that’s his position, which means Alex Caruso may need to compete for minutes at shooting guard.

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No matter what Frank Vogel does, the simple truth is ther roster is too deep and there are two few minutes for the Lakers to use an 11-player rotation, which means the solution should be to utilize shifting matchup rotations. That gives everybody a chance to play, provides LeBron James and older players with load management, and deals with the vagaries of a shortened and compressed schedule and possible absences due to Covid-19.

Kuma’s extension and Horton-Tucker’s preseason have exacerbated Frank Vogel’s rotation challenges. Either he adopts some form of shifting matchup rotations or ends up limiting at least two good players to minor minutes. One of the hallmarks of last year’s championship team was how every player on the roster was willing to sacrifice for the good of the team but this year’s team is much deeper or more talented than last year’s team.

With Kuzma’s extension and THT’s preseason demanding more minutes, Frank Vogel and the Lakers need to seriously consider sitting two or three players each game so they can deploy an eight or nine man rotation.

It’s definitely premature and disrespectful of proven veteran teammates but I’m going to say it anyway: 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker is the future at point guard for the Lakers and could be the starter sometime this season.

In four preseason games, Talen averaged 20.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.3 steals in 31.6 minutes per game, ranking 2nd in points, 2nd in rebounds, 4th in assists, 1st in steals, and 1st in plus/minus for the team. And these were not hollow stats posted in garbage time minutes as Talen was a major force in the Lakers’ undefeated preseason, highlighted by a 33 point, 10 rebound, 4 assist, and 4 steal performance against the Clippers.

Yes, it’s only been four preseason games but the improvement in Talen’s game at both ends of the court has been unprecedented for a second round draft pick. His newfound confidence and skill level are off the charts. The Lakers’ coaching staff and players say what everyone’s seen Horton-Tucker do in his brief debut in the playoffs and this preseason, he has been doing everyday in practice and scrimmages since last season in the bubble.

There are five reasons why Talen is the future starter at point guard for the Lakers: his elite ability to get to the rim and finish, run the pick-and-roll, make plays for others, create steals and turnovers, and shoot the three ball.

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1. Ability to Get to the Rim and Finish

The first thing that jumps out at you about Talen Horton-Tucker is the ability of his powerful 234 pound body to absorb contact at the rim and use his freakish length and acrobatic athleticism to finish highlight reel layups. Blessed with a 7′ 1″ wingspan, hands almost as big as Kawhi Leonard, and the biggest body of any NBA player his height, the 6′ 4″ Horton-Taylor is a tireless juggernaut that relentlessly and fearlessly attacks the basket.

With elite physical skills and shifty moves, Talen has the potential to be one of the hardest players in the league to stop from getting to the basket. He’s an unstoppable attack dog with unique ability to get to the rim at will.

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2. Ability to Run the Pick-and-Roll

One of the key skills that make Talen incredibly difficult to defend is his savvy ability on pick-and-rolls to use his handle, strength, and change of pace to put and keep his defender in jail as he navigates through the paint. While he’s not fast or quick, Horton-Tucker’s strong body, long arms, and big hands make him a nightmare matchup for most point guards and impossible to control in the lane where he’s a lethal threat to score or pass.

Talen’s gravity as a finisher and uncanny court vision let him to use pick-and-rolls to create opportunities for others in the paint or on the perimeter and his huge hands and long arms enable him to find them in traffic.

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3. Ability to Make Plays for Others

Make no mistake, Talen Horton-Tucker is not going to be a pass-first point guard. His future is clearly as a shoot-first point guard whose threat as a big time scorer is going to demand other teams’ attention and best defenders. Unlike most young high powered scorers, Talen has great court vision and willingness to make the right play when a teammate is open, whether the result of him being in attack mode or a simple hockey pass to the corner.

Talen’s elite passing repertoire includes all the weapons a great playmaker needs, including pinpoint pocket passes in the pick-and-roll, drive-and-kick passes to wide open 3-point shooters, or lobs to bigs for dunks at the rim.

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4. Ability to Create Steals and Turnovers

Defense has been how 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker has earned minutes on the Lakers’ 10-deep championship roster. His weapons are a 6′ 4″ 234 lb body, 7′ 1″ wingspan, and ‘Klaw’ sized hands to create steals and turnovers. His elite arm length and hand size enable him to hound ball handlers and deflect passes, tip balls from dribblers, and rip the ball out of players’ hands like he did while defending Kawhi in preseason game against the Clippers.

Talen’s outlier physical metrics and defensive potential were what first brought him to the attention of NBA scouts. His team best 2.3 steals per game in preseason show how far he’s grown under the Lakers’ tutelage.

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5. Ability to Shoot the Three Ball

The biggest surprise since his rookie year is Horton-Tucker’s improvement as 3-point shooter, hitting 2 of 5 (40%) in his 17 minutes in two playoff games and 7 of 13 in his 127 (53.8%) minutes in four preseason games. Talen’s improved 3-point shooting showed how hard he worked on his shot as he only made 49 out of 159 threes (30.8%) in his one year at Iowa State and 72 of 233 threes (30.9%) in his 38 game stint in the G-League last year.

If he can shoot the three well, there’s no limit to how far Talen can go. That he shot 90% from the line in preseason compared to 74% in the G-League and 62% at Iowa State gives hope his improved shooting may be legitimate.

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Going from preseason sensation to regular season rotation player to starting point guard is a daunting challenge on any team much less on a deep and talented championship team but Talen has a chance to do it. The next step is taking over as the Lakers’ backup point guard and proving his preseason performance was not a fluke and the team can count on him to run the offense efficiently, rack up points, and defend at a high level

That Talen’s already knocking on the door is a luxury and miracle for a Lakers team already favored to repeat as champions. There are encouraging signs they may have already found their point guard of the future in THT.