Lakerholics

Trying to find a trade for the champion Lakers that makes them better is a major challenge, especially since Kyle Kuzma’s extension included a poison pill provision and the rest of the trading chips are critical rotation pieces.

Frankly, I’m a huge fan of Talen Horton-Tucker and believe he’s going to be a future star. The idea the Lakers might consider trading him seems like a nightmare only a Jim Buss and Mitch Kupchak front office would consider. Honestly, I’m not even sure as I write this article whether it’s an idea I will endorse or reject by the time I publish it but I do think Chris Boucher could be a rare commodity that might be both an attainable and catalytic target.

It’s rare for teams trade promising young prospects like Talen Horton-Tucker and Chris Boucher but the Lakers need a young rim protector and the Raptors need a young star guard to replace 34-year old Kyle Lowry.

WHY SHOULD THE LAKERS TRADE HORTON-TUCKER?

The decision whether to trade Talen Horton-Tucker ultimately relies on two assumptions:(1) the Lakers do not need him to repeat as champions and (2) trading him could give the Lakers valuable front court depth and diversity. While Rob Pelinka and the front office have done a terrific job upgrading last season’s championship roster and Frank Vogel and his staff an equally superb job revamping the defense, the Lakers still lack elite rim protection.

There’s an argument the Lakers don’t need to add a third center or can sign one for the veteran minimum once the prorated annual salary falls below their hard cap but neither of those options are how you win championships. While the 20-year old Horton-Tucker has star potential, he’s still years away from that right now whereas the 28-year old Boucher is ready to contribute immediately at a position the Lakers desperately need a long term solution.

Boucher is enjoying a breakout season and is a leading candidate for Most Improved Player. He not only is third in the league with 2.3 blocked shots per game but is also shooting 48.3% from deep on 3.6 attempts per game. While it’s early, the 6′ 9,” 200 lb center is averaging 14.8 points, 6.5 boards, and 1.1 assists as the Raptors’ backup behind Aron Baynes and would give the Lakers a modern center who can stretch defenses and protect the rim.

While the Lakers would be giving up an elite prospect in 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker for a relatively unproven 28-year center, Boucher could be the perfect long-term center to pair with Anthony Davis in a Lakers dynasty.

WHY SHOULD RAPTORS TRADE FOR HORTON-TUCKER?

With their championship run now in the rearview mirror, the Raptors have a decision to make before the March 25th trade deadline: Who’s going to replace Kyle Lowry and is Chris Boucher the answer as their starting center? Now that the Raptors have locked up Siakam, Anunoby, and VanVleet, they need to find a future star guard to replace 34-year old veteran free agent Lowry and a quality center to replace departed veterans Gasol and Ibaka.

Masai Ujiri has been a master at keeping the Raptors competitive while still building a talented young roster but his contract is up at the end of the year and there will be several franchises looking to lure him away from Toronto. Adding a guard with elite star potential like 20-year old Horton-Tucker to a nucleus of 26-year old Siakam, 23-year old Anunoby, and 26-year old VanVleet would give the Raptors a bright future and competitive present.

The Raptors were hopeful Aron Baynes would be able to fill the void left by losing Gasol and Ibaka to free agency but the results have been mixed. Baynes has played well defensively but has struggled shooting the three. While Boucher has played well, he’s undersized and seems destined to coming off the bench to back up Baynes and Anunoby at the five and four. After cutting Alex Len, the Raptors may be seeking more size at the five.

While Chris Boucher has developed into a valuable player off the bench, he does not project as a future starter for the Raptors. The time may be right to sell high and bring back a player who could a future star for the franchise.

Trading a budding star like Talen Horton-Tucker for a promising unproven undersized center like Chris Boucher is a gamble worth taking for a Lakers team looking to win multiple NBA championships before LeBron retires. Boucher’s an elite shot blocker who’s pogo stick hops would be a perfect fit as a small ball center alongside Anthony Davis at power forward and give the Lakers a pair of pterodactyls to stretch the floor and protect the rim.

The Lakers would have to include Wesley Matthews as salary filler for the trade to work but swapping two guards for a center would not only balance the roster but also allow Frank Vogel to finally settle on a 10-player rotation. While there likely would come a time when the Lakers might regret trading a future star like Talen Horton-Tucker, the hope is the three or four more championships won in the meantime would serve as fair compensation.

While I love the long term upside Talen Horton-Tucker represents, the immediate reward of adding a modern young center who is an elite shot blocker and 3-point shooter like Chris Boucher is worth the gamble.

Fresh off a comfortable statement win over the Milwaukee Bucks last Thursday night, the Los Angeles Lakers look to extend their 8-game road winning streak to 9 games in tonight’s rematch with the Chicago Bulls.

Lakers 9.5 point favorites. LakerTom’s prediction: Lakers 117–96

The key to the game will be the champion Lakers playing up to their level rather than down to their opponent’s level. Hopefully, the Lakers will remember how they almost lost their first game against the Bulls in LA. Chicago not only won the points-in-the-paint battle 62–42 but also beat the Lakers in fast break points 13–7, two areas the Lakers failed to win against the Bucks despite winning the game last Thursday in Milwaukee.

Lakers Record: 12–4 overall, 8–0 on the road, won 6 of last 7 game.
Bulls Record: 7–8 overall, 2–3 at home, won 3 straight games.

Lakers #1 Net Rating, #1 Defensive Rating, #4 Offensive Rating.
Bulls #22 Net Rating, #27 Defensive Rating, #11 Offensive Rating.

Previous Matchups: Lakers beat Bulls 115-113 on Jan 8th in Los Angeles.
Zach LaVine scored 38 points. LeBron James 28 points. No Anthony Davis.

Wendell Carter, Jr. out for Bulls. Jared Dudley out for Lakers. LeBron James listed as questionable.

Legendary college basketball coach Bobby Knight once said “defense is just offense without the ball” and that’s the perfect description of the style of defense Frank Vogel has the world champion Los Angeles Lakers playing.

Defense in the NBA is usually by definition a passive and reactive response to what the offense does and most schemes are built around philosophies designed to defend pick-and-roll actions and protect the paint and rim. Despite an upgraded offense that no longer has to rely entirely on LeBron James and Anthony Davis, Frank Vogel has fully embraced Bobby Knight’s mantra and transformed the Lakers’ defense into a deadly lethal weapon.

What we’re seeing from the Lakers’ defense is the expansion and evolution of the suffocating schemes Frank Vogel unveiled in last season’s playoffs that dominated opposing offenses on the way to winning the championship. The Lakers’ weaponized defense includes aggressive traps and hedges to attack on-ball screens and prevent ball handlers from getting to the rim plus a versatile array of individual defenders who can shutdown elite scorers.

Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office and Frank Vogel and his coaching staff deserve praise for their vision and courage in dramatically changing their base defensive strategy and the front court personnel to implement it. They replaced the drop coverage strategy and traditional low post centers that anchored their regular season defense with more aggressive trap and hedge schemes and smarter, more versatile defenders at center position.

The Lakers’ regular season defensive strategy was a remnant of Frank Vogel’s successful stint coaching the Indiana Pacers and Roy Hibbert where elite defense started inside-out with verticality rules and rim protection. Anchored by traditional centers JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard, the Lakers drop coverage defense dominated the regular season by forcing shooters to take pull-up jumpers from midrange and beyond the arc.

Faced with a gauntlet of elite pull-up jump shooters like Damian Lillard, James Harden, Jamal Murray, and Tyler Herro in the playoffs, the Lakers benched McGee and Howard and abandoned their drop coverage defense. Instead, they opted to trap, hedge, and double the lead ball handler off screens to prevent them from shooting or getting to the rim, relying on a faster, quicker, and more athletic lineup to rotate to protect the rim.

What made the Lakers new outside-in defense work was Markieff Morris playing the four to free up Anthony Davis to play the five. The rest is history. The Lakers dominated the playoffs and won their 17th championship. Having watched their traditional low post centers become unplayable in the playoffs, the Lakers didn’t hesitate to make a change, replacing JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard with Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell.

While Gasol and Harrell are not the elite rim protectors that McGee and Howard were, they’ve both excellent positional defenders and the Lakers overall defense and rim protection has been even better than last season. Besides the impressive boost they’ve given the Lakers’ offense, Gasol’s physical size, toughness, and high basketball IQ and Harrell’s quickness, athleticism, and ability to draw charges have upgraded the Lakers defense.

While the sample size is still small, the Lakers right now have the best record in the league at 11–3, the best defensive rating at 104.0, and the best net rating at 11.0 — all numbers dramatically better than last season.

The second way the Lakers weaponized their defense this regular season is by better utilizing their upgraded portfolio of individual defenders who are capable of shutting down elite scorers like Damian Lillard or James Harden. This was part of the Lakers’ defensive strategy during the playoffs when we saw LeBron James and Anthony Davis volunteer and personally take the responsibility for defending the other team’s star player or red hot scorer.

We saw that last night when Anthony Davis took over guarding the Pelicans’ Brandon Ingram after he exploded for 17 points on 8 of 9 shooting in the first half. Davis held him to 3 points on 1 of 6 from the field the second half. The willingness of James and Davis to defend the other team’s best player gives the Lakers an advantage over other teams like the Bucks or Nets who have superstars who are reluctant or unable to defend opposing superstars.

In the end, great team defense still requires players who can play great individual defense and that’s a big reason why the Lakers’ defense is such a lethal and powerful weapon, especially at games’ end and in the playoffs. Alex Caruso, Kyle Kuzma, Markieff Morris, Talen Horton-Tucker, LeBron James, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marc Gasol, and Montrezl Harrell all have defensive ratings that are below the Lakers team best 104.0 rating.

What’s scary for Lakers’ opponents is that Anthony Davis is just starting to play up to the level of a DPOY, having only a 104.9 defensive rating for the season but posting an impressive 91.3 defensive rating his last four games.

What’s remarkable about the Lakers’ defensive evolution this season has been how Frank Vogel has modified his long held belief that defense starts inside-out with protecting the rim and embraced this outside-in strategy. Vogel’s ability to adapt to changes in the game is a remarkable and frankly an unexpected development that’s been an important aspect of the Lakers’ championship run last season and their chances to repeat this season.

That Frank Vogel made this defensive change in strategy in the heat of the playoffs and then doubled down on it for the regular season by replacing both McGee and Howard with Gasol and Harrell is even more remarkable. While it’s still early and the sample size is small, the Lakers have shown no sign of abandoning their ‘defense first’ identity. In fact, there are foreboding signs they may have weaponized their defense to be better this season.

Teams hoping the Los Angeles Lakers traded their championship defense for offensive firepower may end up being extremely disappointed because it looks like for this team ‘defense is just offense without the basketball.’

When the LA Times Lakers Blog imploded back in 2012, Val (AKA Nuggets Country) was the first person I turned to in my quest to build what eventually became Lakerholics.Net and now Lakerholics.Com.

Val and I along with several other passionate LA Times Lakers Bloggers played with different ideas, formats, and platforms for the new site. Among them were Mike (AKA CyberCosmiX), Lew Mariano (AKA Lewsters), and Kenny Marks. I don’t know whether it was a continuation of the controversy that plagued the LA Times Lakers Blog or just five guys with different visions but In the end, Mike and Kenny decided to go one direction with TrueLakersFans and Val and I decided to go another with Lakerholics.

Val just emailed me that he has a severe case of Covid-19 and I asked permission to reveal his real name and let his longtime blog friends know of his situation so they could wish him well and include him in their prayers. Val retired many years ago after a highly successful business career and is presently the Mayor of Woodland Park, CO. You can check his exploits at https://www.valcarrwp.com/.

In the meantime, it was inevitable that Covid would strike one of our own so join me in wishing Nuggets Country a fast recovery so he can join us in celebrating the purple and gold’s 18th NBA championship this summer. Stay strong and fight hard, Val. You’re in our hearts and prayers.

Watching the Lakers play, reviewing their roster, and analyzing the stats for the first seven games, it’s hard not to wonder if the Lakers have traded the defense-first strategy that won them a championship for better offense.

Anybody watching the games can see the difference. The Lakers no longer have to rely entirely on LeBron James and Anthony Davis on offense but the defense is riddled with holes and once great rim protection is non-existent. Replacing Avery Bradley, JaVale McGee, and Dwight Howard with Dennis Schroder, Marc Gasol, and Montrezl Harrell has clearly turbo charged the Lakers’ offense but the cost may have been their championship defense.

The stats so far tell the same story as the eye test. Offensively, the Lakers rank 3rd in offensive rating, 5th in points scored per game, 2nd in team plus/minus, 2nd in field goal percentage, and 3rd in 3-point percentage. Defensively, they rank 6th in defensive rating, 6th in opponent points allowed per game, 8th in opponent field goal percentage, 6th in opponent 3-point percentage, 8th in blocks per game, and 25th in steals per game.

While championship teams rarely abandon the strategy that helped them win a title, have the Lakers traded their championship defense to get more firepower on offense this offseason or is there something else going on?

The truth is there’s a lot going on that’s caused the defensive problems that have plagued the Lakers through their first seven games, including roster and scheduling changes as well as a major change in defensive philosophy.

Let’s start with the obvious. It’s only been 83 days since Lakers won the championship, they had a shortened 3 week training camp. Their preseason consisted of just 4 games and they’ve only played 6 games this season. Needless to day, it’s unfair to expect the Lakers to be playing defense at the level they did in the playoffs at this point in the season. Like Frank Vogel warned, it’s going to take time for the players to get back into game shape.

While the Lakers returned twelve players from last year’s squad, they also added five new players in Dennis Schroeder, Montrezl Harrell, Marc Gasol, Wesley Matthews, and Talen Horton-Tucker to an already deep rotation. Adding that many players to the Lakers lineups is going to be a challenge that will take time to click, especially on the defensive end where reading schemes and rotating in sync are critical to Vogel’s defensive system.

While it’s the regular season, the Lakers are still experimenting with lineups and players still working to get into game condition. We probably won’t see the real Lakers’ defense until we’re a fourth of the way through the season.

So what will the ‘real’ Lakers’ defense look like? Have we traded defense for offense? Have we sacrificed rim protection for more offense? The answer is defense is still the priority but there’s been a major change in philosophy.

The change in philosophy started in the playoffs last season when the Lakers stopped having McGee and Howard play drop coverage and went to more athletic defensive lineups that could rotate more quickly and challenge shots. There’s no question the Lakers’ rim protection right now is not what it was last year in the regular season when JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard were playing a combined 35.5 minutes and blocking 2.5 shots per game.

But McGee and Howard were not the rim protection formula the Lakers used to win their 17th NBA championship. While Howard was key in the Denver series, both he and McGee became unplayable most of the playoffs. The defensive lineup that won last year’s championship was Davis at the five, Morris at the four, and James at the three, plus two guards. Vogel confirmed last week that lineup was still the Lakers’ core defensive formula.

So the question that needs to be asked is what’s happened to the Lakers’ core defensive formula? Why haven’t the Davis, Morris, James, and two guards lineup had the defensive impact this season they had in the playoffs? The answer is simple. Despite reiterating that AD, Keef, LeBron, and two guards were still the Lakers defensive formula and Death Star lineup to close games, Frank has simply not played them together so far this season.

Instead, Frank has experimented with different lineups and rotations and has only played AD, Keef, and LeBron together in 2 games for just 6 minutes, which is the major reason why the Lakers’ defense has been subpar. The other problem is he’s played Gasol or Harrell at center for 44.4 minutes per game or over 93% of the time, meaning Davis has only averaged 3.6 minutes per game or just 7% of the game at the center position.

Finally, as he has openly admitted himself, Anthony Davis has really not played well defensively so far this season. In fact, his 114.0 defensive rating is the worst of any player in the Lakers rotation through the first six games.

What the Lakers have done is to double down on the defensive formula that won them their championship last year, which was to rely more on speed, quickness, and athleticism to create better defense than size at the rim.

Rather than bring back traditional centers who became obsolete in the playoffs, the Lakers replaced them with centers with defensive smarts and athleticism to defend all over the court and ability to contribute on offense. It’s going to take Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell time and experience to learn how to play in Frank Vogel’s defense and that’s why they’re getting the minutes at center right now rather than Anthony Davis or Markieff Morris.

Like McGee and Howard, Gasol and Harrell at the five will be the Lakers’ regular season plan but down the stretch and in the playoffs, Vogel will once again turn to the championship formula of Davis, Morris, and James.