Lakerholics

Just 4 games ago, the world champion Los Angeles Lakers were cruising along with a league best 14–4 record, 7th ranked offensive rating at 113.6, top ranked defensive rating at 103.9, and top ranked net rating at 9.7.

Then the Lakers’ juggernaut ran aground, losing a 1-point heartbreaker to the Sixers and a 15-point dispiriting loss to the 3–14 Pistons before pulling out a 1-point win over the Celtics and a late 8-point win over the Hawks. During those 4 games, the Lakers’ 107.2 offensive rating was 23rd, 108.8 defense rating 6th, -1.6 net rating 18th, 46.0% field goal shooting 18th, 34.0% 3-point shooting 27th, 39.3 rebounds 28th, and 22.3 assists 23rd.

Whether you write off this 4-game stretch of subpar play as just an anomaly in a long regular season or the Lakers as a team regressing to the mean, the concern is the sudden collapse included almost every player on the roster. For those 4 games, every single Lakers’ starter except for LeBron James and every single reserve except for Alex Caruso had a negative plus/minus. This was a team wide collapse we never saw in last year’s championship run.

Tonight, the Lakers face a major test to see if they can flip the switch and get back to playing like champions in a rematch with a red hot Denver Nuggets team they dominated on their way to their 17th championship last season. The 12–8 Denver Nuggets are fresh off a big win that ended the 16–5 Utah Jazz’ 11-game winning streak with center Nikola Jokic matching a career high 47 points in a 128–117 win where their lead was as high as 28 points.

The Lakers need more than great play from leading MVP candidate LeBron James and bench GOAT Alex Caruso. They need the entire team to get back on track and play with the true focus and fervor of a championship team. That means Anthony Davis needs to start playing like the second best player on the planet, slumping starters like Marc Gasol and KCP need to shed the cobwebs, and key reserves like Kuzma and THT need to contribute more.

It also means the Lakers need to start playing more like a team instead of just throwing the ball to LeBron or AD and standing around. They also need to play faster as they played at the second slowest pace the last 4 games. The offense is stagnant. The team needs to run plays rather than relying on isolation basketball and LeBron James passing. The coaching staff needs infuse some diversity in the plays as the offense has become predictable.

Right now, the Lakers no longer look like the best team in basketball, which is something I never thought I would be saying after just a 4-game stretch early in the season. The truth is the problems we’re seeing are not surprises. They’re issues that everybody had before the season started but have been covered up by a strong start, unsustainable elite 3-point shooting, and unbelievable MVP quality play from 36-year old superstar LeBron James.

Time to find out if this new Lakers squad is for real. No more excuses about the short turnaround, compressed schedule, challenge of being on the road, not being able to bond or have fans in the stands cheering because of Covid. The Nuggets are ready to rock and roll tonight and knock the Lakers off their throne. They’re primed to for revenge and eager for redemption from their 5-game bludgeoning in last season’s Western Conference Semifinals.

How the Lakers respond tonight will tell us whether the last 4 games were just a glitch in a long season or an early sign Lakers fans should recalibrate their championship expectations. Tonight’s a game the Lakers need to win.

While the Lakers still have the top defensive rating in the league, the rim protection from their new centers Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell has not met the standard set last season by JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard.

The problem is the Lakers decided to make a major change in how they defend ball screens and challenge ball handlers to prevent the penetration and wide open shots that came from having their bigs play drop coverage. That strategic change was a big reason why the Lakers rolled through the playoffs and won the championship. But it was also why JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard essentially become unplayable during those playoffs.

While McGee and Howard did a great job protecting the rim, they were like fish out of water defending on the perimeter in the playoffs, which led to the Lakers opting to play small with Anthony Davis and Markieff Morris. Unfortunately, Gasol and Harrell have not only failed to to provide the rim protection of McGee and Howard but also haven’t shown the mobility and athleticism required to aggressively hedge, trap, or double on ball screens.

While both Gasol and Harrell have brought valuable skills to the Lakers’ offense that have made the Lakers a better and more versatile team, neither has the ability to bother shots at the rim and switch onto the perimeter. What the Lakers need to fix their defense is a modern defensive center who can not only block shots and protect the rim but who also has the quickness, mobility, and athleticism to challenge ball handlers out to the 3-point line.

While the Lakers will have space under the hard cap in February to sign a minimum contract veteran, their best option is probably going to be a trade. Here are four possible modern defensive centers the Lakers could target:

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1. NEW YORK BACKUP CENTER: NERLENS NOEL

Nerlens Noel is 26-year old, 6′ 11,” 201 lb, 7-year NBA center backing up Mitchell Robinson for the New York Knicks and averaging 3.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 1.6 blocks, and 1.0 steals in 16.8 minutes per game.

Nerlens checks both of the boxes for a modern defensive center as he is capable of protecting the rim and defending shooters on the perimeter. He’s not the offensive threat of Gasol or Harrell but a huge upgrade defensively. Noel is currently making $5 million on 1-year contract. With 22-year old Mitchell Robinson established as the starter, the Knicks might be tempted to trade Noel for a veteran mentor like Marc Gasol and Wesley Matthews.

While the Lakers would lose the spacing and playmaking Gasol provides the starting lineup, Nerlens Noel would give them a starting defensive center capable of defending all positions and levels to complement Anthony Davis.

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2. DALLAS BACKUP CENTER: WILLIE CAULEY-STEIN

Willie Cauley-Stein is 27-year old, 7′ 0,” 240 lb, 7-year NBA center backing up Kristaps Porzingis for the Dallas Mavs and averaging 6.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.8 blocks, and 0.4 steals in 18.6 minutes per game.

Like Noel, Cauley-Stein also checks both of the boxes for a modern defensive center as he has the speed, mobility, and athleticism to block shots and protect the rim and switch and defend players on the perimeter. Willie is currently making $4.1 million and the Mavs have a player option for next season. With Porzingis back from injury, the Mavs might be willing to trade Cauley-Stein for a package of Marc Gasol and Wesley Matthews.

As with Noel, the Lakers would be trading offense for defense by replacing Gasol with Cauley-Stein but they would be dramatically upgrading their rim protection and perimeter defense and boosting their chances to repeat.

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3. TORONTO BACKUP CENTER: CHRIS BOUCHER

Chris Boucher is 28-year old, 6′ 9,” 200 lb, 3-year NBA center backing up Aron Baynes for the Toronto Raptors and averaging 13.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 2.1 blocks, and 0.6 steals in 22.6 minutes per game.

While unproven, Boucher is enjoying a breakout year and is a candidate for MIP. What sets him apart from Noel and Cauley-Stein is his ability to shoot the three as well as protecting the rim and defending out to the 3-point line. Chris is making $6.5 million with a player option next season. The Lakers would need to send Marc Gasol’s 2-year contract, Wesley Matthews, and their 2025 first round pick to tempt the Raptors to trade Chris Boucher.

Boucher would give the Lakers an ideal replacement for Gasol in their starting lineup, a modern offensive and defensive center who could protect the rim, defend on the perimeter, and stretch the floor with his shooting.

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4. INDIANA STARTING CENTER: MYLES TURNER

Myles Turner is 24-year old, 6′ 11,” 250 lb, 5-year NBA center starting for the Indiana Pacers and averaging 14.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 4.1 blocks, and 1.3 steals in 32.6 minutes per game.

As the only proven starter among the four candidates, Myles Turner would be the perfect center to play alongside Anthony Davis. Unfortunately, he would also be the most expensive in terms of what it would cost in assets. Myles is in the first year of a 3-year contract paying him $18 million per year. It would take an offer of KCP’s 3-year deal, Gasol’s 2-year deal, and the Lakers’ 2025 first round pick to tempt the Pacers to trade Myles Turner.

Turner checks all the boxes for a modern two-way center. He leads the league in blocks, can defend on the perimeter, and stretch defenses with his shooting. And he has the size and weight to guard Jokic and Embiid.

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There’s another four weeks before players signed this offseason will be eligible to be traded but the Lakers are going to be watching and monitoring the above four players and how they and their teams are playing closely. While the Lakers have the option of Anthony Davis playing the five come the playoffs, their biggest roster need is for a long term solution at center to enable them to play the kind of defense that won the championship.

Nerlens Noel, Willie Cauley-Stein, Chris Boucher, and Myles Turner are all promising trade targets whose age and skill sets are perfect matches to play alongside Anthony Davis and make their championship defense even better.

Nobody’s talking about it right now but there’s a good chance the question of who’s going to be the Lakers’ point guard for next season and the future could suddenly become a hot topic of discussion between fans and media.

While many have assumed the Lakers will ultimately reach an agreement on an extension with starting point guard Dennis Schroder, Rob Pelinka cannot ignore the growing interest from other teams in young Talen Horton-Tucker. With both slated to be free agents eligible for big raises this offseason and only one starting point guard position available, the Lakers may be forced to make a decision on who is going to be their point guard of the future.

27-year old Dennis Schroder is the Lakers’ starter at point guard and has demonstrated a lightning quick ability to blow by defenders to get to the rim, gravity as a 3-point shooter, and a toughness as a perimeter defender. 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker has forced his way into Vogel’s rotation with his elite length, power, and ability to get to the basket and projects as a future two-way star whom some predict could start as soon as next season.

Right now, Schroder is averaging 30.6 minutes per game while Horton-Tucker is only playing 15.3 minutes per game. But when you compare their stats per 36 minutes, the 20-year old THT surprisingly has a slight edge. Considering the age difference, it’s easy to see why the Lakers and other teams are so high on Talen Horton-Tucker. A second year second round pick, THT is already matching the potential of last year’s 6MOY runner up.

In a perfect world, the Lakers would love to extend Schroder and re-sign Horton-Tucker to be his backup. With a little luck, that could happen. But How Schroder and Horton-Tucker play easily could change that dynamic. Right now, both have started to come back to earth after stretches of elite play so the jury is still out. Dennis has slumped after a red hot start to the season while THT has struggled to match his elite preseason play.

Schoder is currently making $16 million per year and will become an unrestricted free agent this offseason. If the Lakers want to keep him, they probably need to re-sign him to an extension starting around $20 million. Horton-Tucker is only earning $1.5 million right now and will become a restricted free agent this offseason. The Lakers have his Early Bird Rights so can offer him around the $10 million and match any other offers.

The problem is the Gilbert Arenas exception would allow another team to offer Horton-Tucker a 4-year contract with the first two years at $10 million and last two as high as max salary for an average of $20 million per year. While it’s doubtful any team is going to offer 20-year old Talen a 4-year $80 million contract, there are certainly going to be teams offering him a salary in the $15 to $17 million range in hopes the Lakers will not match the offer.

What seems more and more likely is the Lakers may be forced to choose between extending Schroder or matching what’s likely to be significant offer for Horton-Tucker. The Lakers may not be able to afford to keep them both. The incredible upside of 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker whom some think has superstar potential could end up preventing the Lakers from offering Schroder an extension, especially if Dennis’ play continues to slump.

With that in mind, Frank Vogel is in a difficult position as it may not be in the Lakers’ best interest to give Horton-Tucker major minutes as that will only encourage other teams to try and steal him this offseason as a free agent. On the other hand, they don’t want to hold back or stunt the growth of a player who might develop into the superstar the Lakers desperately need to complement James and Davis and bridge the post LeBron transition.

While Frank Vogel faces a challenge finding minutes for young Horton-Tucker with six capable veteran guards ahead of him in the rotation, there’s no question the Lakers’ coaching staff view his role as a playmaking guard. With KCP and Kuzma already signed long term and Caruso and Horton-Tucker likely to added to the core next offseason, there’s not much playing time or cap space left to extend Dennis Schroder without a major trade.

If Talen Horton-Tucker continues to grow and develop over the next month, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Lakers include Dennis Schroder in a major trade for a modern defensive center to upgrade the team’s rim protection. Whether that happens will depend on how well Talen and Dennis play but the Lakers’ need help at the center position and Talen Horton-Tucker is at some point going to become the team’s next starting point guard.

For millions of Kobe Bryant and Los Angeles Lakers fans, there’s no doubt the Black Mamba somehow watched over and inspired the team’s successful quest for their 17th NBA championship in the bubble in Orlando, Florida.

Nor is there any question Kobe’s Mamba Mentality and iconic Lakers’ legacy was passed to LeBron a year ago today when Bryant, his daughter Gigi, and seven others perished in the tragic helicopter crash in Southern California. Bryant’s ghost has been hovering over and driving the Lakers’ greatness from the moment LeBron took the leadership mantle from Kobe a year ago to the ‘Mamba on Three’ cheer the team still uses to break every huddle.

You can see it in the way every single roster move Kobe’s agent and best friend Rob Pelinka makes seems to be golden and every major strategic adjustment head coach Frank Vogel makes seems to be work out perfectly. The Lakers are on a roll. Coming off a dominating championship run that overcame unprecedented challenges, the Lakers look poised not only to repeat but also to position themselves for another championship dynasty.

The Lakers are and will always be Kobe Bryant’s team and that’s a legacy LeBron James has full heartedly embraced, still wearing Mamba’s number 24 on his left ring finger for every game for the year after Kobe’s tragic passing. While LeBron’s never struggled to find reasons to self motivate, his love and respect for Kobe and everything he meant to the Lakers and the game of basketball is straight from the heart and not just another motivational ploy.

There will always be something mystical and celestial about how the torch of Lakers’ basketball greatness was passed from Kobe Bryant to LeBron James at Staples last January as if it were a scene from the movie Heaven Can Wait. Maybe it’s just coincidence but it’s hard not to imagine the basketball gods balancing the scales and infusing the spirit of Kobe Bryant into the heart and soul of LeBron James and telling Father Time he’ll just have to wait.

How else can you explain how a 36-year old, 17-year veteran like LeBron James, who has played in 1,283 regular season and 260 playoff games, can continue to be the best player on the planet and leading MVP candidate? What’s even more surprising and unbelievable is LeBron may even be better right now than any time in his long career. He’s currently on pace to enjoy the best season in his illustrious career shooting the three-ball at 41.2%.

Last night, we saw King James go off for 46 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 7 threes, 2 steals, and 2 blocks in leading the Lakers to a 115–108 road win in his first visit to Cleveland since donning the purple and gold two years ago. This followed superstar teammate Anthony Davis’ scintillating 37 point, 6 rebound, 3 assist, 2 steal, and 1 block game in Saturday night’s game in his hometown Chicago as the Lakers bulldozed the hapless Bulls 101–90.

Tomorrow night, the Lakers seek to remain undefeated and win their 11th game on the road in a statement matchup against Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and the 76ers in Philadelphia, the hometown of Kobe Bryant. Look for LeBron James to do something special to honor Kobe Bryant, like wearing a Lower Merion #33 jersey when he walks into Wells Fargo Center. The Lakers won’t forget that Philadelphia is Kobe Bryant’s hometown.

Games like tomorrow night’s against the Sixers are the games LeBron James and Anthony Davis mark on their calendars. Expect the Lakers to bring their A-game and the legacy of Kobe Bryant to inspire them to pull off the win.

Trying to find a trade for the champion Lakers that makes them better is a major challenge, especially since Kyle Kuzma’s extension included a poison pill provision and the rest of the trading chips are critical rotation pieces.

Frankly, I’m a huge fan of Talen Horton-Tucker and believe he’s going to be a future star. The idea the Lakers might consider trading him seems like a nightmare only a Jim Buss and Mitch Kupchak front office would consider. Honestly, I’m not even sure as I write this article whether it’s an idea I will endorse or reject by the time I publish it but I do think Chris Boucher could be a rare commodity that might be both an attainable and catalytic target.

It’s rare for teams trade promising young prospects like Talen Horton-Tucker and Chris Boucher but the Lakers need a young rim protector and the Raptors need a young star guard to replace 34-year old Kyle Lowry.

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WHY SHOULD THE LAKERS TRADE HORTON-TUCKER?

The decision whether to trade Talen Horton-Tucker ultimately relies on two assumptions:(1) the Lakers do not need him to repeat as champions and (2) trading him could give the Lakers valuable front court depth and diversity. While Rob Pelinka and the front office have done a terrific job upgrading last season’s championship roster and Frank Vogel and his staff an equally superb job revamping the defense, the Lakers still lack elite rim protection.

There’s an argument the Lakers don’t need to add a third center or can sign one for the veteran minimum once the prorated annual salary falls below their hard cap but neither of those options are how you win championships. While the 20-year old Horton-Tucker has star potential, he’s still years away from that right now whereas the 28-year old Boucher is ready to contribute immediately at a position the Lakers desperately need a long term solution.

Boucher is enjoying a breakout season and is a leading candidate for Most Improved Player. He not only is third in the league with 2.3 blocked shots per game but is also shooting 48.3% from deep on 3.6 attempts per game. While it’s early, the 6′ 9,” 200 lb center is averaging 14.8 points, 6.5 boards, and 1.1 assists as the Raptors’ backup behind Aron Baynes and would give the Lakers a modern center who can stretch defenses and protect the rim.

While the Lakers would be giving up an elite prospect in 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker for a relatively unproven 28-year center, Boucher could be the perfect long-term center to pair with Anthony Davis in a Lakers dynasty.

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WHY SHOULD RAPTORS TRADE FOR HORTON-TUCKER?

With their championship run now in the rearview mirror, the Raptors have a decision to make before the March 25th trade deadline: Who’s going to replace Kyle Lowry and is Chris Boucher the answer as their starting center? Now that the Raptors have locked up Siakam, Anunoby, and VanVleet, they need to find a future star guard to replace 34-year old veteran free agent Lowry and a quality center to replace departed veterans Gasol and Ibaka.

Masai Ujiri has been a master at keeping the Raptors competitive while still building a talented young roster but his contract is up at the end of the year and there will be several franchises looking to lure him away from Toronto. Adding a guard with elite star potential like 20-year old Horton-Tucker to a nucleus of 26-year old Siakam, 23-year old Anunoby, and 26-year old VanVleet would give the Raptors a bright future and competitive present.

The Raptors were hopeful Aron Baynes would be able to fill the void left by losing Gasol and Ibaka to free agency but the results have been mixed. Baynes has played well defensively but has struggled shooting the three. While Boucher has played well, he’s undersized and seems destined to coming off the bench to back up Baynes and Anunoby at the five and four. After cutting Alex Len, the Raptors may be seeking more size at the five.

While Chris Boucher has developed into a valuable player off the bench, he does not project as a future starter for the Raptors. The time may be right to sell high and bring back a player who could a future star for the franchise.

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Trading a budding star like Talen Horton-Tucker for a promising unproven undersized center like Chris Boucher is a gamble worth taking for a Lakers team looking to win multiple NBA championships before LeBron retires. Boucher’s an elite shot blocker who’s pogo stick hops would be a perfect fit as a small ball center alongside Anthony Davis at power forward and give the Lakers a pair of pterodactyls to stretch the floor and protect the rim.

The Lakers would have to include Wesley Matthews as salary filler for the trade to work but swapping two guards for a center would not only balance the roster but also allow Frank Vogel to finally settle on a 10-player rotation. While there likely would come a time when the Lakers might regret trading a future star like Talen Horton-Tucker, the hope is the three or four more championships won in the meantime would serve as fair compensation.

While I love the long term upside Talen Horton-Tucker represents, the immediate reward of adding a modern young center who is an elite shot blocker and 3-point shooter like Chris Boucher is worth the gamble.