Lakerholics

There’s little doubt the Los Angeles Lakers’ Achilles heel on offense is their 3-point shooting. Despite a second best 22–9 record, the Lakers rank 26th in 3-point makes, 26th in 3-point takes, and 20th in 3-point percentage.

The only thing that’s saved the Lakers’ season from disaster is their top ranked defense, which has held their opponents to a league 4th fewest 3-point makes, 6th fewest 3-point takes, and 4th lowest 3-point percentage. Their elite 3-point defense has enabled them to win 11 of the 13 games where they made more than 10 threes, 3 of the 5 games where they made 10 threes, and 8 of the 13 games where they made less than 10 threes.

At the heart of the Lakers 3-point shooting problems is a lack of players who take and make a high volume of threes. Realistically, a team cannot create a 3-point differential unless it takes and makes more threes than it allows. The Utah Jazz, for example, take 10.8 and make 5.5 more threes than they allow. The Lakers, on the other hand, essentially just barely tread water, taking 2.1 and making 0.6 fewer threes per game than their opponents.

The reality is there isn’t room for the Lakers to fix their 3-point differential by improving their already excellent 3-point defense. Nor is simply shooting a higher percentage the answer. The only solution is to shoot more threes. Last night, they made a valiant effort to do exactly that, tying a season high 45 3-point attempts. The problem was they only made 13 of their threes for 28.9%, including a dismal 1 for 13 in the fourth quarter in a 96–94 loss.

The blueprint for winning with LeBron James has always been to surround him with high percentage, high volume 3-point shooters, Despite winning the championship last season, the Laker have failed to follow that blueprint. This season, the highest volume 3-point shooter on the Lakers is James himself, who’s 34th in the league at 6.7 threes per game. The next highest volume 3-point shooter is Kyle Kuzma, who’s 95th at 4.8 threes per game.

The Lakers’ 3-point shooting problems have unfortunately reached a panic level. Over the last 10 games, their 3-point shooting has just bottomed out, averaging only 8.7 makes out of just 29.8 takes for a league worst 29.2%. The time has come for Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office to admit their lack of high percentage, high volume 3-point shooting has become the single biggest threat to the team’s hopes of repeating as NBA champions.

The Lakers need to prioritize trading for one or two quality high volume 3-point shooters who take more than 7 threes per game so they can increase the number of threes the team takes from 30.5 to the high 30’s per game. That should be Rob Pelinka’s primary focus over the next month. Trading for quality high volume 3-point shooters will be expensive but it’s the single biggest move the Lakers can make to improve their chances of repeating.

With that in mind, here are four proposed trades the Lakers could pursue before the March 24 trade deadline to upgrade the team’s offense with proven high percentage 3-point shooters who take 7 or 8 threes per game:

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1. SCHRODER & CALDWELL-POPE FOR BALL & REDICK

This is a win-now gamble as the Lakers give up their low 3-point volume starting backcourt of Schroder and Caldwell-Pope for a controversial pair of high percentage, high volume 3-point shooters in Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick.

Ball has made 72 of 189 3-point shots this season for 38.1% while Redick has made 43 of 117 3-point shots for 36.8%. In contrast, Schroder has made 28 of 90 threes for 31.1% while KCP has made 40 of 97 threes for 41.2%. Ball and Redick in 25 games combined for 47 more made threes and 141 more points than Schroder and Caldwell-Pope. The trade would increase Lakers’ 3-point takes by 4.8, makes by 1.9, and points by 5.7 per game.

That’s exactly the kind of high volume 3-point production the Lakers need. The 22-year old 3&D Ball would immediately replace Schroder in the Lakers’ starting lineup while the 36-year old Redick would be a reserve. While Redick would provide short-term instant offense of the bench, the key to the trade is the controversial Ball, whose volume threes, defensive versatility, and elite outlet passing would be elite fits with Lebron and AD.

The trade would also be a win for the Pelicans, who’ve already committed to moving on from Ball and Ridick, as Schroder and Caldwell-Pope would be perfect complements alongside Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson.

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2. SCHRODER, KCP, & HARRELL FOR LOWRY & BAYNES

This is another win-now trade where the Lakers cash in a trio of proven young players in Schroder, Caldwell-Pope, and Harrell for 34-year old All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry and 34-year old stretch center Aron Baynes.

Lowry has made 69 of 178 3-point shots this season for 38.8% while Baynes has struggled and only made 12 of 56 threes for 21.4% with Toronto this year. But Baynes has potential and the hope is he can shoot like last season. Playing for the Suns last year, Baynes had a career season and made 59 of 168 threes for 35.1%. A change in scenery could be what Baynes needs to become the modern stretch five the Lakers need to fill their center rotation.

Lowry and Baynes volume 3-point shooting could theoretically combine for 11.1 takes, 4.2 makes, and 12.6 points per game, almost double the 6.9 takes, 2.6 makes, and 7.8 points from Schroder, Caldwell-Pope, and Harrell. Like the trade for Ball and Redick, the trade for Lowry and Baynes increase Lakers’ 3-point takes by 4.2, makes by 1.6, and points by 4.8 per game, which is exactly the kind of volume 3-point shooting the Lakers need.

Lowry would immediately replace Schroder as the Lakers’ starting point guard and give the Lakers the third star to complement LeBron and AD while Baynes would replace Harrell coming off the bench as a stretch five. Like Ball , Lowry is the key to the trade. He’s having a great season and still looks like he could play at that level for another couple of seasons. If Baynes could return to last year’s form, he would be a perfect backup center.

The trade would also be a win for the Raptors, who’ve already talked about moving Lowry and Baynes, as Schroder, Caldwell-Pope, and Harrell would rejuvenate them three talented young players to enable them to compete.

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3. HORTON-TUCKER FOR GRAHAM

The is another win-now trade where the Lakers give up 20-year old budding superstar Horton-Tucker in exchange for young high volume 25-year old point guard Graham who takes over 8 threes per game and shoots 34.7%.

A 3-year veteran, Devonte has made 70 of 202 threes this season for 34.7%. He is the 11th most prolific 3-point shooter in the league and is averaging 13.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in 32.8 minutes per game. Graham takes 8.1 and makes 2.8 threes per game for 8.4 points. Horton-Tucker takes 1.8 and makes 0.5 threes per game. The trade would increase the Lakers’ 3-point takes by 6.3, makes by 2.3, and points by 6.9 per game.

Devonte Graham would immediately move into the starting point guard role with Dennis Schroder coming off the bench like he did in OKC or share starting point guard duties with Schroder in a double point guard scheme. Either way, Graham would give the Lakers needed volume 3-point shooting and a legitimate second point guard to reduce the playmaking load off of LeBron James and upgrade the team’s overall playmaking and shooting.

With LaMelo Ball now the Hornets’ point guard of the future Terry Rozier enjoying a career season, the Hornets can afford to move Devonte Graham to land a potential future superstar in 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker.

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4. CALDWELL-POPE & HORTON-TUCKER FOR BEASLEY

This is a win-now trade where the Lakers give up 28-year old proven vet Caldwell-Pope and 20-year old future star Horton-Tucker for 24-year old Beasley, a young high volume shooter who takes almost 9 threes per game.

Malik Beasley has made 106 of 260 3-point shots this season for 39.6%. In contrast, the veteran Caldwell-Pope has made 43 of 102 threes for 42.2% while the second year Horton-Tayler has made 13 of 48 threes for 27.1%. Beasley takes 8.7 and makes 3.4 threes per game for 10.2 points. KCP and THT take 5.6 and make 2.1 threes per game. The trade would increase the Lakers’ 3-point takes by 3.1, makes by 1.3, and points by 3.9 per game.

Beasley would immediately replace Caldwell-Pope as the Lakers’ starting shooting guard, giving the Lakers the high percentage, high volume 3-point shooter they need to stretch defenses and create spacing for LeBron and AD. While stats on winning and losing teams aren’t comparable, Beasley’s 20.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists in 32.8 minutes per game would be an upgrade over KCP’s 8.6 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists in 25.6 minutes.

The Timberwolves give up a great young player in Bealey but receive a championship proven young vet in KCP and a future superstar in the uber talented Horton-Tucker who would likely be a Lakers’ starter next season.

The 3-point shooting revolution has taken a sudden change this year that threatens the Los Angeles Lakers’ chances of repeating as champions. The key metric to winning games has suddenly become the 3-point differential.

NBA teams are not only focusing on taking and making more threes than opponents but also on playing better perimeter defense to limit opponent takes and makes and to generate an insurmountable 3-point differential. Suddenly, the 3-point differential has become the preeminent box score stat that determines who wins the game. The modern blueprint for winning in today’s NBA is to outscore your opponent from beyond the 3-point line.

The surprise team leading the league right now are the 24–5 Utah Jazz, who have won 9 straight games and 19 of their last 20. The Jazz also boast the league’s top ranked 3-point differential of 5.6 threes and 16.8 points. The reason the Jazz have the best record in the league is simple. They’re not only making a league best 16.6 made threes per game on 39.3% shooting but also only allowing a league lowest 11.0 made threes per game.

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NBA 3-POINT DIFFERENTIAL AS OF FEBRUARY 19, 2021

The Jazz even won the 3-point differential in the only game they lost of the last 20 games, hitting 20 of 47 threes for 42.6%. It took the Denver Nuggets hitting an incredible 18 for 28 threes for 64.3% to give the Jazz a rare loss. The league has been slow to give Quin Snyder and the Utah Jazz credit for being more than an early season surprise but the teams they’ve played understand their combination of 3-point offense and defense is daunting.

With Gobert protecting the rim freeing defenders to challenge threes and a cadre of dead eye shooters raining threes, the Jazz now have the 4th best offensive rating, 2nd best defensive rating, and best net rating in the league.

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After making a change in defensive philosophy to prioritize defending the three over protecting the rim, the Lakers only allow 11.5 made threes per game, which is tied for the third fewest opponent threes in the league. Unfortunately, the Lakers only make 10.8 threes per game, 28th in the league, resulting in a negative 3-point differential: they allow 0.7 more threes and 2.1 points per game than they make, 18th out of 30 teams.

Alarmingly, the other three teams with the top four 3-point differentials are also teams the Lakers may end up facing on the road to the championship: the 2nd ranked Blazers, the 3rd ranked Nets, and the 4th ranked Clippers. The Portland Trail Blazers have a scary 3-point differential of 3.1 threes and 9.3 points, the Brooklyn Nets a differential of 2.6 threes and 7.8 points, and the Los Angeles Clippers a differential of 2.5 threes and 7.5 points.

What’s unnerving about the Lakers’ negative 3-point differential is there is limited room to improve defensively, which means the only way to close the gap is offensively, which may be impossible without major roster changes. Changes in the roster may be needed because the Lakers simply do not have the high volume 3-point shooters needed to increase the number of made threes and points generated to create a positive 3-point differential.

Right now, the closest the Lakers have to a high volume 3-point shooter is LeBron who’s taking 6.6 threes per game. Next in 3-point shot attempts are Kuzma with 3.7 per game, KCP with 3.7, Wes with 3.3, and Dennis with 3.1. None of these players, LeBron included, are legitimate volume 3-point shooters. Frankly, if the Lakers want to increase made threes and points, they’re going to need to change their roster and upgrade their offense.

Otherwise, they’re going to see more and more teams dominating them from deep like the Nets did last night, hitting 10 more threes for 30 more points. But they’re going to face a 3-point differentiaL gauntlet this year. The Jazz’ Mitchell and Clarson are averaging 8.7 and 8.6 threes per game, the Blazers’ Lillard and McCollum 10.8 and 11.0, the Nets’ Harden, Irving, and Harris 7.9, 6.8, and 6.6, the Clippers George and Leonard 7.9 and 4.9.

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Last regular season, the Lakers took 31.6 threes per game and shot only 34.8%. They improved dramatically in the playoffs, taking 34.2 threes and shooting 35.4%. Defensively, they allowed 32.7 opponent threes per game. They made 12.1 threes and allowed 11.8 opponent threes in the playoffs, giving them a differential of 0.3 threes and 0.9 points. So it’s not impossible for the Lakers to win a championship with a low 3-point differential.

But the Lakers’ options are still limited. To start with, they need to make some basic changes in their offense to create more open threes and they need to encourage their players to take those shots when they’re available. Their 3-point attempts have declined over 10% the last 15 games. They took 31.9 threes per game the first 15 games but just 28.3 threes per game the last 15 games. While they’ve continued to win, the margin has gotten slim.

The Lakers best option is to look to move low 3-point volume starting guards Dennis Schroder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for a pair of high volume 3-point shooters to help improve their 3-point differential. Candidates the Lakers could target include Buddy Hield (10.3 3PG), Malik Beasley (8.7 3PG), Devonte Graham (8.1 3PG), Lonzo Ball (7.6 3PG), JJ Redick (4.6 3PG), Lauri Markkanen (7.2 3PG), Victor Oladipo (7.3 3PG).

The Lakers’ 3-point differential depends more on the volume than the percentage of threes made. While it’s not impossible for the Lakers to repeat as champions, their negative 3-point differential will make that difficult. The last thing they want is to play the four teams who have the best 3-point differentials in the league: Blazers in the first round, Clippers in the second round, Jazz in the conference finals, and then the Nets in the Finals.

The good news is the Lakers will have an opportunity at the trade deadline for moves to improve their rim protection and 3-point shooting. Let’s hope they recognize their negativer 3-point differential is their Achilles heel.

It’s a shame Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant will miss tonight’s matchup between the teams favored to meet in the NBA Finals but there’s clearly a sense of fairness and karma by having both teams missing a superstar.

But there’s more at stake tonight than just bragging rights between the Nets and Lakers. Tonight we get a first look at a possible answer to the question of whether a third superstar or deep and talented roster is more important. Granted, we’d get a truer answer were AD and KD both playing but tonight’s game still comes down to a contest between the Nets with two superstars and a weak roster vs. the Lakers with one superstar and deep roster.

The outcome of tonight’s game could even impact the decisions of the Lakers and Nets front offices before the trade deadline. The Lakers have long been scheming ways to add a third superstar to James and Davis. Tonight’s game could motivate them to chase a third superstar or stand pat. Meanwhile, the Nets will be looking for ways to bolster their shallow, weak bench after trading away their depth to add third superstar James Harden.

In the end, it’s unlikely the results of tonight’s game will change anything for either team as it’s simply another regular season game and neither team has the necessary trading chips to make dramatic changes to their rosters. The Lakers aren’t going to jettison their invaluable roster depth and talent for a third superstar and the both teams are going to be limited to shopping the buyout markets to upgrade their rosters at this point in time.

But that doesn’t mean tonight’s game is not going to give us a glimpse of how the Lakers and Nets matchup and a preview of the NBA Finals teams. The NBA is a superstar league and the Lakers and Nets are superstar teams. So who should be favored? That Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant are not playing should favor the Lakers as they have the deeper and more talented roster and expose the Nets who have the weaker and more flawed roster.

In addition to having the deeper and more talented bench, two other factors that should favor the Lakers are they are the top ranked defensive team in the league and also have the best superstar on the planet in LeBron James. Finally, while superstars dominate the NBA, championships are still won by teams and the Lakers at this point in time are clearly a ‘better’ team than the Nets, who are still trying to figure out how to play with each other.

Assuming their deeper and more talented roster can execute its ‘Next Man Up’ philosophy, the Lakers should be able to contain the Nets’ Harden and Irving like they consistently did to the Rockets’ Harden and Westbrook.

With superstar Anthony Davis tentatively sidelined for at least 2 to 3 weeks, the big question facing the Los Angeles Lakers is can they win without AD? The answer could depend upon whom coach Frank Vogel decides to play.

The Lakers need to embrace “Next Man Up’ and come out and ready to play aggressively and with confidence. When they do that and are having fun, flying around on defense and running on offense, they can beat anybody. Winning games without Anthony Davis will require the Lakers to dominate the 36 minutes during the game LeBron James plays and find a way to hold court and stay even during the 12 minutes per game he will need to rest.

The good news is the Lakers have one of the deepest and most talented rosters in the NBA. While they’ve struggled with rim protection and 3-point shooting, they still have the top rated defense in the league to rely upon. While the Lakers will surely miss Anthony Davis over the next 11 games, they’ve won 4 of the 5 games he’s already missed and 3 of their 5 top ranked lineups and 6 of the 11 that had positive net ratings were without AD.

Coach Vogel needs to tap into the Lakers’ lineups with the best records and play the combinations that have been the key to the team having fun and winning all season long. The time for experimenting must now be over.

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So let’s first take a look at the stats for the successful 5-player lineups with LeBron James without Anthony Davis that Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel should be prioritizing for the next 11 games based on past performance:

An analysis of these lineups shows James appears 6 times, Harrell 4 times, Morris 4 times, Caruso 3 times, Matthews 3 times, Kuzma 3 times, Schroder 2 times, Gasol 2 times, Horton-Tucker 2 times, and Caldwell-Pope 1 time. The good news is the number of times each player shows up matches well with what the eye test and recent performance tells us. The exception is Markieff Morris whose positional importance is clearly higher without AD.

Frank Vogel is not likely to make major changes to the starting lineup but Gasol, Morris, James, Matthews, and Schroder has been the best non-AD Lakers’ lineup and Matthews is clearly playing better than KCP right now. Considering how Kuzma has been shooting, rebounding, and defending, Gasol, Kuzma, James, Matthews, and Schroder would be a starting lineup with a good chance to get the Lakers off to good starts and winning ways.

Vogel said before Anthony Davis’ injury that he wasn’t going to change the starting lineup ‘anytime soon.’ AD’s injury changes everything. Kuzma is the logical starter to replace Davis and Matthews needs to take over for KCP.

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Unfortunately, the Lakers had no positive lineups without one of James or Davis on the court, which means Frank Vogel’s big challenge will be what happens when James, who’s already playing too many minutes, rests.

Caruso, Harrell, Horton-Tucker, Morris, and Caldwell-Pope will be the Lakers’ reserves, even though they don’t make up a viable 5-player lineup. Instead, Vogel is going to have to combine them with two or three of the starters. We’ve already seen the trio of Caruso, Harrell, and Horton-Tucker have had great success. Frankly, I could even see Frank going with an 8-man rotation with Morris and Caldwell-Pope playing minimal minutes as needed.

Defensively, the Lakers are now going to have to go small, which means playing an aggressive trapping, hedging, and doubling style of defense designed to create chaos and turnovers to ignite fast breaks on offense. Transition is going to be critical as the last thing the Lakers want is to play half court basketball. They need to push the ball relentlessly, take wide open threes in transition, and not hesitate to attack the paint or crash the boards.

Hopefully, the injury to Anthony Davis will motivate and empower the team to come out focused and ready to play. That could be the silver lining that gets the team back to playing the kind of Lakers’ basketball we all love.

Lakers fans can be excused if their hearts were in their throats and minds filled with memories of the Warriors’ championship hopes collapsing as Kevin Durant hobbled off the floor after tearing his Achilles tendon.

Fortunately, it looks like the Lakers dodged a bullet as Anthony Davis’ injury was only a strained calf and not a dreaded torn Achilles. But the injury was still a harsh reminder how fragile championship hopes can be in this league. Missing AD for two or three weeks or more may also force the Lakers to take a second look at what their plans for the season had been before the injury. Here are four big questions the Lakers may suddenly be asking themselves:

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1. HOW CONSERVATIVE SHOULD LAKERS BE WITH AD?

This is the easy question to answer. The Lakers are going to be very careful to allow Anthony Davis however long he needs to be 100% healed before returning to action. They’re clearly going to error on the conservative side.

Only 27-years old, the Lakers are not going to risk the future of their young superstar. Anthony will come back only when he’s completely healed and can safely play without worrying about re-injuring the calf or his Achilles.

While he’s not expected to return until after the All-Star break, which means he will miss the next 11 games, the Lakers will not hesitate to hold him out longer if necessary to ensure he will be healthy for the playoffs.

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2. SHOULD THE LAKERS RETHINK AD’S ROLE ON THE TEAM?

With the short offseason and the compressed schedule, the Lakers had already dramatically changed Anthony Davis’ role this season, playing him at center just 9% of the time compared to 26% of the time last season.

Part of the reason for the change was to limit the rougher physical play he would face playing more minutes at center but part was strategic to deploy Davis’ defensive talents more often against perimeter players.

Since the issues with his calf have been something Anthony has been struggling with and affected his play all season long, expect the Lakers to continue to the strategy of playing him more at the four than the five.

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3. DOES THE INJURY HURT THE LAKERS CHANCE TO REPEAT?

Anthony Davis’ injury definitely raises doubts and may reduce the Lakers’ chances of repeating as NBA champions. While he has played well, AD has not played offensively or defensively at the level he played last season.

Assuming he misses two to four weeks, the Lakers are likely to struggle to play at the same level they’ve played this season. While they’ve continued to win most of their games, they haven’t dominated like earlier in the season.

With Utah leading the West and the Clippers right behind them, the Lakers may find themselves having to play their crosstown rivals just to reach the Western Conference Finals and then maybe the Brooklyn Nets in the Finals.

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4. DO THE LAKERS NEED TO TRADE FOR ANOTHER BIG?

The Lakers already allow miss the elite rim protection they received last season from their tandem of centers JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard and have allowed the 5th most points in the paint of any team in the league.

With AD now out for 2 to 4 weeks, the Lakers lack of size become even a bigger issue. With few quality bigs available as free agents and only two centers on the roster, the Lakers may be forced to make a trade.

Ideally, the Lakers would like to add a longtime solution at center who can help their perimeter defense as well as protecting the rim. The big question is who is available and how much will it cost the Lakers to trade for him.