Lakerholics

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Tonight might be the Los Angeles Lakers’ best opportunity this season to steal a game from the NBA Champion Oklahoma City Thunder, who are on the second night of a back-to-back with six key players out with injuries.

Right now, the Lakers are 7 point underdogs versus the home Thunder. To win, the Lakers will likely need career games from Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves plus a healthy dose of the team’s superhuman ‘next-man-up’ magic.
Statistically, the Lakers are not only a poor matchup with the Thunder but also closer to a play-in team than a legitimate championship contender. While the sample size is small, LA’s stats do not support their 8–3 record.

But games are won on the court, usually by the team whose superstar has the best game. Luka Doncic has usually played well against the Thunder, despite being hounded full court by All-Defensive stalwart Luguentz Dort.
As great as the Thunder, tonight’s game looks like the basic trap game: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, missing six players including the elite defender who always guards Luka Doncic.

While the Lakers will still be missing LeBron James, Austin Reaves has elevated his game to legitimate All-Star level and JJ Redick has been staggering the duo so one of them is always on the court all 48 minutes.
Tonight, the Lakers need Doncic and Reaves to attack the paint and their shooters to be lethal from deep on offense. Defensively, they must double and force SGA to give up the ball and force other players to beat them.

To win, Luka must outplay Shai and Lakers must outshoot Thunder at the rim and from beyond the arc. It’s the penultimate battle between a team that lives by attacking the rim and a team that lives by protecting the rim.

No disrespect to the Lakers’ surprising 8–3 start to the season without LeBron and with Luka missing 4 and Austin 3 of the first 11 games but L.A. needs a better and deeper rotation if they want to win the championship.

With NBA teams across the board trying to duplicate the Thunder’s aggressive high-pressure point-of-attack defense, the level of physicality, number of injuries, and free throws taken have been unprecedented. NBA teams have traditionally built rosters with 8 to 9 legitimate rotation players but with injuries and load management ravaging lineups, teams should consider raising the ideal number of rotation players to 12.

Every night we’re seeing teams with 4 to 6 players on their injured list struggling to put together competitive starting lineups and rotations that make sense with back-of-the-bench reserves. Time to build-in insurance.
The problem with most teams is their roster is clogged by multiple players who are development projects or disappointments who don’t contribute and need to be traded or cut to make room for more rotation players.

Right now, because of Pelinka’s reluctance to make moves, the Lakers are one of the NBA teams with multiple valuable roster spots wasted upon development projects or players who are not what they need right now.
The Lakers currently only have 8 rotation players upon whom they can count: starters Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James, and Deandre Ayton plus Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia, and Jaxson Hayes.

Gone are the days when teams only needed 8 or 9 rotation players. The game evolves, play gets rougher, schedules get tougher, pace gets faster. The Lakers need a better and deeper rotation to win the championship.

How Could Lakers Add Four More Rotation Players

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To add 4 rotation players to the 8 they already have, the Lakers need to pull off a blockbuster trade that not only nets them 2 rotation players but also opens up roster spots and cap space to add 2 more buyout rotation players.

We’ve already seen how important the buyout signings of Deandre Ayton and Marcus Smart were for the Lakers this season. The Lakers need to pull off a consolidation trade that opens the door to repeating that success.
One of the unexpected benefits of the new CBA is the acceleration of the buyouts of overpaid veteran players and the prohibition of second apron teams like the Celtics, Timberwolves, and Suns from signing buyouts.

The blockbuster trade(s) the Lakers need would swap Vanderbilt, Vincent, Kleber, Knecht, and draft capital for a 3&D starting small forward and defensive backup center and open door to add 2 buyout rotation players.
For example, the Lakers could trade for Andrew Wiggins and Goga Bitadze and sign buyouts Kelly Oubre and CJ McCollum or trade for Dillon Brooks and Daniel Gafford and sign buyouts Khris Middleton and Terry Rozier.

Imagine adding Wiggins, Bitadze, Oubre, & McCollum or Brooks, Gafford, Middleton, & Rozier to a Lakers 8-man rotation that already possessed Doncic, Reaves, James, Smart, Hachimura, Ayton, LaRavia, & Hayes?
The Lakers would not only have a much deeper and more diverse starting lineup and rotation but would also have 3 or 4 legitimate rotation players who would essentially be their insurance policy against player injuries.

Strategically, the Lakers need to build a deeper and more diverse starting lineup and rotation with at least 12 legitimate rotation players to be able to win the championship despite negative injuries and load management.

The Lakers have had a couple of days to recover and regroup after a very disappointing showing in the NBA Cup quarterfinals against the San Antonio Spurs.

That loss didn’t introduce anything new. It exposed the same patterns and the same defensive flaws we’ve seen before — including in the previous matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who the Lakers face again tonight.

So instead of a regular, structured game preview, this piece looks at what the Lakers can actually adjust. Specifically, the defensive issues that keep resurfacing, and the lineup or tactical changes that might help plug some of those holes.

Defense isn’t the only nut the Lakers need to crack. Both the Spurs and the Suns went with a similar approach, letting Luka score in two on two situations while focusing on limiting his playmaking. In the rematch, the Lakers will need to readjust.

That task becomes even more difficult without Austin Reaves, who will be out for at least a week while dealing with a calf strain.

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Today’s highlights:

Starting five and rotation imbalance

Should Hachimura’s minutes depend on the matchup and the opponent’s defensive plan? (VIDEO)

Creating advantages out of the post (VIDEO)

Small ball as a tweak for more banshees and more Rui touches (VIDEO)

1-Starting five and rotation imbalance

After the last practice, JJ Redick said the Lakers have completely lost their defensive fundamentals over the last ten games. Over that stretch, they rank as the fourth worst defense in the league. One of the biggest talking points all season has been the imbalance of the starting group, especially when it comes to skill and finesse versus defense and physicality.

The fit of Deandre Ayton and Rui Hachimura, two excellent finishers but not high motor defensive tone setters, is something I’ve already written about in both my 10 and 20 game checks. When you add LeBron James still working his way back from injury, plus Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, the result is one of the least aggressive starting units in the league at a time when leaning into physicality and force is a clear, established trend.

In the short term, replacing Reaves with Smart should shift that imbalance a bit, but the long term challenge will persist. Last season, Redick took pride in the team’s banshee spirit, but yesterday he admitted the Lakers simply haven’t been banshees this season. And while I agree that each player individually stepping up his effort and physicality can help, for the team to re-acquire the play hard tag they had last season, Redick will have to adjust his rotation and unleash the banshees.

Since the Lakers got healthy and since James returned to the lineup, the minutes for players I would categorize as banshees (Smart, Vanderbilt, LaRavia, Vincent, Thiero, and Kleber) have been cut roughly in half compared to earlier in the season, dropping to just 15 to 25 percent of total minutes.

And I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this is also the period when the defense started to struggle. Smart missing six games during this stretch was a big hit, but Jarred Vanderbilt’s and Jake LaRavia’s minutes were also reduced compared to the first part of the season.

2-Should Hachimura’s minutes depend on the matchup and the opponent’s defensive plan? (VIDEO)

On my recent podcast chat with Jovan Buha, I mentioned that reducing Ayton’s and Hachimura’s minutes in favor of the banshees is one way to adjust the imbalance. Hachimura is averaging 33 minutes per game, and while his shooting is a crucial component that provides space for Dončić, Reaves, and James to operate on offense, there have been recent games, most notably the matchups against the Suns and the Spurs, where his role and shot diet were diminished by the way Dončić pick actions were defended.

In my 20 game check, I wrote about teams cycling between more conservative coverages like drop and more aggressive hedging or blitzing. Before the Suns game, the latter was on the rise. Then the Suns and Spurs leaned into a scheme with a long center (Mark Williams and Luke Kornet) in drop, forcing Dončić to score in two on two situations rather than trapping and allowing the Lakers to play advantage four on three basketball.

Without doubles or scrambling defenses, there were far fewer touches for Hachimura. He had just one shot attempt and went scoreless against the Suns, then scored seven points on four shots against the Spurs, posting season lows of three and eight frontcourt touches in those two games.

Ayton’s and Hachimura’s touches have been on the decline since James returned, so re-adjusting the rotation for more balance and playing both less alongside all three high usage, high touch starters is worth a try, especially against the recent tactics the Suns and Spurs applied. Defenses might stunt even more aggressively if Jake LaRavia is in the corner instead of Hachimura, but I don’t think it would drastically change the scheme.

3-Creating advantages out of the post (VIDEO)

Even if Ayton’s and Hachimura’s minutes are reduced, the Lakers still need to find ways to utilize them, especially Hachimura, even when the opponent’s strategy is forcing Dončić into a high usage scorer rather than a playmaker.

One way to do that is to feature Dončić and James in the post more, rather than spam countless pick and stack actions, because in that scenario not sending a double and defending one on one becomes a much riskier proposition. You could see the Spurs choosing to shift help from Hachimura on the weakside rather than from Reaves or Dončić, who were one and two passes away.

4-Small ball as a tweak for more banshees and more Rui touches (VIDEO)

Another way to get more minutes for the banshees is to lean more into small ball, centerless lineups like the Lakers used last season. I’m not suggesting going all in on small ball, which eventually doomed them in the playoffs, but using it as a change of pace option that could open up more minutes for players like LaRavia and Vanderbilt.

Small ball is also a way to utilize Hachimura more as a screener and a pick-and-pop option.

We’ve seen that when Smart or Vanderbilt are in small ball lineups, and sometimes even in regular lineups with Ayton or Hayes on the floor, they are the players opponents choose to guard with their big man. That forces them to become the screening partner for Dončić instead of Hachimura. This setup isn’t ideal, especially with Vanderbilt or Smart catching the ball as the decision maker, but it still creates advantages and forces four on three basketball.

Another way to utilize Smart or Vanderbilt is by using them as the second back screener in stack actions, as shown below, or by having them set corner screens, flare screens, or pin in actions.

Regardless of what the Lakers do, the recent defensive breakdowns suggest it’s probably time to reshuffle the rotation and lineups and find ways to get the banshees more involved. We’ll see some of that tonight because Reaves’ 37 minutes will have to be redistributed, but the Lakers likely need a more significant, long-term change of course if they want to meaningfully improve their defense.

Despite the grueling gauntlet and eight games without LeBron and four without Luka, the ‘next-man-up’ Lakers not only survived but showed they were capable of playing championship caliber basketball without LeBron.

The winner of tonight’s game between the 6–2 Lakers and the 5–1 Spurs will be the #2 seed in the West behind the unbeaten champion Thunder. The early betting odds have the home Lakers as 2.5 to 3.0 point favorites. After starting the season 2–2, the Lakers have now won four straight games without their superstars Luka Doncic or LeBron James, including stunning underdog wins over the heavily favored Timberwolves and Trailblazers.

Meanwhile, after starting the season with five straight wins, the Spurs ran into a buzz saw against the Suns last Sunday, losing to Phoenix’s blistering shooting from deep and their elite defensive strategy on Wembanyama.
Essentially, the Suns used the smaller and quicker Royce O’Neal to work hard to try and prevent Victor Wembanyama from receiving the post entry pass while their center Mark Williams and other defenders blitz him.

Both teams are injury riddled. The Lakers have announced that Reaves will be out tonight as well as James, Vincent, Kleber, and Thiero while the Suns will be missing Fox, Harper, Kornet, Sochan, Waters, and Olynyk tonight.
Despite the injuries, winning this game will probably come down to which superstar has the more dominant night. Right now, both Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama are off to historic career starts to their seasons.

Look for the Lakers to replicate the aggressive defense the Suns used to limit Wemby last Sunday and look for Luka Doncic to have another one of his 40-point masterpieces as the Lakers dominate the Spurs wire-to-wire.