Lakerholics

This is the second of a series of articles from each member of the Lakerholics editorial team recounting how this crazy and unprecedented year and NBA season personally impacted and affected them. Thanks to Blog Editor Sean Grice for suggesting and inspiring the series. We invite every Lakerholic to comment and let us know how this wacky year hit you and yours.

As I sit back in my chair exhaling a deep breath after the last Lakers Fast Break podcast of the NBA season, I find myself reflective of how far we’ve come. I spent the last few months listening to Rafael Barlowe’s deep insight, LakerTom’s engaging (and sometimes outlandish) rants, and Jamie Sweet and Sean Grice pointed comments on just how the Lakers pulled through to earn their 17th World Championship (Sorry Bill Simmons, it’s seventeen for the Lakers, deal with it). I’ve had on guests from the outside looking in, some who backed the Lakers and some who were very direct in predicting the team’s demise. The many Laker podcasts hosts that have come onto the program have shared their beliefs and blinding love for the team on what LeBron, AD, and the rest of the team have accomplished so far. And yes, I have had the opportunity to be an invited guest on many other programs and had to sit there and endure the opinions of others who thought mistakenly (or was it through just a blinding hatred of the Lakers or LeBron) that there would be no chance the team could find a way to thrive in this bubble format.

But as I look back on it now, a Lakers fan seemingly destined for me since my birth in Inglewood, California just a block and a half away from the Fabulous Forum, I am filled with a sense of satisfaction. That I could enjoy this moment with my girls, who weren’t old enough to remember their last title victory in 2010, is truly something I will cherish for the rest of my life. But it is also what the team has gone through in this roller coaster of a season that will have me say (as I have done repeatedly on the show) that this has been the toughest season that an NBA team has ever endured. Culminating in my definitive statement that this championship brings along with it the opinion this is the greatest title victory ever.

Oh, I know the nay-sayers will be out there seemingly forever. Miami didn’t have Bam Adebayo for two games, and Goran Dragic for virtually all of the series. The Lakers also didn’t have to match up against the Clippers, the Bucks, or the Raptors, due to those teams’ own (depending on the team) ineptitude, lack of chemistry, or underperforming at just the wrong time. Also, the team (read in -between the lines: LeBron) had months to rest heading into the bubble, and that the only extended travel was the bus trips from the arena back to their extended-stay hotel rooms.

But the Lakers 2020 World Championship needs to be thought of above all the rest the team has accomplished, due to the tremendous circumstances the team has had to endure and persevere through during the course of the last twelve months. A new superstar brought in with a blockbuster trade in Anthony Davis, left many questioning whether or not the Lakers gave up too much. The fallout of the Magic Johnson and Luke Walton departures left the team looking for a new head coach. That search finally ended up turning over to Frank Vogel, who was considered an afterthought for the position, with Jason Kidd brought on as an assistant coach seemingly destined to take over his job. Even the pursuit of Kawhi Leonard in free agency left the Lakers scrambling for talent, leaving the optimism with the Davis and LeBron pairing being high, but many questions about the talent around them being just as prevalent.

The 2019-2020 season started out innocently enough, with Anthony Davis coming into the fold and expectations for competing for a championship, all looked well for the team as they took a preseason trip to China. But with one tweet from (and now former) Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey in support of Hong Kong, the Lakers and the NBA (and also the Brooklyn Nets who were traveling with the Lakers) found themselves embroiled in a controversy that turned tense, nasty, and ultimately damaging for the league as a whole losing hundreds of millions of dollars in potential revenue.

Despite the issues overseas and an opening night loss to the rival Los Angels Clippers, the Lakers got off to a great start zooming off to a 24-3 record by mid-December. Their focus on defense and challenges to one another to commit to Coach Frank Vogel’s defensive schemes proved to be an early formula for their success, their growing team chemistry, and a message to the league the Lakers would be thought of as a serious contender to the NBA title. All seemed bright for Lakers fans that the team had indeed turned things around. The positive buzz was as high as it had been in a long time for Laker Nation until the morning of January 26, 2020.

It still hits me every now and then like it was yesterday. I know where I was when I heard the news, I was driving in my car along Maryland Parkway in Las Vegas when my wife had called me from work. “I think you should check the news,” she said. “Why?” I answered. “Because Kobe Bryant was just in a helicopter crash”. “What!” I yelled. And almost immediately upon saying those words, the updates from TMZ and other news sources started leaking out the words I was extremely reluctant to see. Yes, the world had lost #24, and such a tragic event had never before impacted the NBA and its fans before such as the one that killed Kobe Bryant, his daughter Gigi and seven others. I was stunned, deeply saddened, and grieving along with millions of others. It’s something even to this day many of us have yet to recover from fully, as the loss will resonate for quite some time.

However bad this loss affected fans from all over the world who had adored Kobe Bryant, the Lakers dare I say were affected even more. Even a week of mourning and a res-scheduling of games did very little to extinguish the sadness the entire Lakers community felt. But that sense of loss and sadness eventually turned into determination, one that propelled the team going forward. Even a symbolic tribute with the donning of the “Black Mamba” jerseys that Kobe helped design and a patch with Gigi’s #2 she wore on her own team gave the Lakers an added confidence that they would be a force to reckoned with throughout the season. Alas, new challenges would soon come into play in the not too distant future, but not before the Lakers solidified themselves as a championship contender with a pair of convincing back-to-back wins over the rival Clippers and the NBA’s best record-leading Milwaukee Bucks.

The Coronavirus would become a worldwide pandemic, and bring the entire sports world (and life as we knew it) to a screeching halt. For months, we weren’t sure if we would get a continuation of the season, and in what form. Compound that with the continual issues with systemic racism in our society including the murder of George Floyd, and other African-Americans at the hands of law enforcement bringing about a worldwide movement to remind everyone that Black Lives Matter. With the world on lockdown, and racial division in America being at the forefront, it seemed like there would be some truly despondent days ahead.

But with the great desire of the NBA to bring some semblance of their game back to their fans, the decision was made to create a “bubble” after weeks of speculation at Disney’s ESPN Sports Complex in Orlando. The questions arose from coaches, players, the press, and the fans in regards to how safe would this be, and could the league really put this off? Some 100-plus days later and we have our answer and it’s a resounding yes. Months of preparation, following regulations, and confinement, and some initial bad meals did lead to a lot of hardships for everyone there, but zero positive tests out of the thousands taken during that span and the ultimate goal of the Coronavirus not ending the season was ultimately achieved.

Life inside the bubble still had its issues and complications, including a stoppage of play due to the death of Jacob Blake at the hands of law enforcement. Even the Lakers struggled with the bubble concept and were among the teams ready to pull out amidst the walkout. Cooler heads prevailed and despite a horrible performance in the eight-game bubble season, the Lakers headed into the postseason as the top seed in the west, even though many were looking to discount the team’s chances of earning the ultimate prize. I heard it, and I know you did too, all the so-called analysts, social media, and former players who favored the Clippers (see below), the Bucks, or any team facing off against the Lakers as they convincingly made their way through each and every round. Just before the playoffs began it seemed like #Fakers was trending more on Twitter than #Lakers.

Through all the adversity, both internal and external, the team pushed through under circumstances that proved to be more of a mental test than anyone would have imagined. But seeing LeBron knife his way through defenses for layups and dunks, Anthony Davis providing heroics and domination on both ends of the floor, Alex Caruso giving the team grit and hustle the team could not do without, Kantevious Caldwell-Pope chime in with (dare I say it?) “clutch” basket after basket, and yes even Rajon Rondo donning his cape and allowing his “Playoff Rondo” superhero alter ego come to life at just the right time was a sight to behold. Everyone in the rotation had their moments to shine and without the contributions of Dwight Howard, Kyle Kuzma, Danny Green, and Markieff Morris, the team may have not reached the top of the mountain so easily.

2020 has been a rough year for everyone. It’s been almost eleven months struggling with a worldwide pandemic, systemic racism, natural disasters, and an economy hit hard by all of those issues that have led to millions dealing with unexpected unemployment. But for one brief moment in time on October 11, as the Lakers grouped together in celebration on that court in Orlando with Finals MVP LeBron and AD holding the trophies, all the negative elements out there got pushed to the side, and Lakers fans like myself could rejoice in a championship ten years in the making. The Lakers earning their 17th championship is a lining for 2020 that isn’t made of silver, it’s paved with purple and gold.

With the salary cap likely to remain flat for next season, it’s going to take creative cap management for the Lakers to re-sign all five of their core free agents and still be able to sign other free agents to upgrade their roster.

While the Lakers would like another reliable scorer, capable playmaker, elite wing defender, or stretch big, they also need to re-sign their own five top free agents to maintain their continuity and win another NBA championship. While Davis is a lock to re-sign a $32.7 million max contract, the Lakers will face a challenge re-signing Caldwell-Pope, Rondo, Morris, and Howard, all of whom will be highly coveted free agents deserving of pay raises.

Since the Lakers are over the cap but below the tax threshold, they will not have cap space to spend on free agents and will have to rely on salary cap exceptions to re-sign their own free agents plus other teams’ free agents. That means the Lakers will be forced to choose between two options with different advantages and disadvantages to sign free agents this offseason. For simplicity, we’ll call the two options the soft cap and hard cap.

If the Lakers choose the soft cap, they can use their Bird rights to re-sign AD, KCP, and Rondo and give them maximum raises but will only have $5.7 million to re-sign Morris and Howard as well as other teams’ free agents. This means the Lakers can pay AD or KCP as much as $32.7 million and Rondo as much as $10.1 million but will only have $5.7 million left to keep Morris and Howard and upgrade their roster with other free agents.

The soft cap is the conservative option since it would allow the Lakers to go over the cap to pay Davis and Caldwell-Pope whatever they need to up to $32.7 million and pay Rondo as much as $10.1 million for the next season. While the Lakers would have no problem paying AD the $32.7 million max salary, they only need to give KCP a raise to $11 million, and Rondo a raise to $6 million to pay them more than what competing teams will likely offer.

That means the Lakers should be able to limit the raises they give AD, KCP, and Rondo to $3.9 million, $2.5 million, and $3.3 million respectively for a total of $9.7 million, which is not enough to justify choosing the soft cap. More problematic is the $5.6 million taxpayer MLE is not enough to re-sign Morris and Howard and upgrade the roster with a key free agent, which means not being able to field a better team to defend their championship.

But if the Lakers choose the hard cap, they’ll have up to $12.9 million to sign Morris, Howard, and other free agents but will be limited to a hard cap limit of $138.9 million for all their player salaries, including AD, KCP, and Rondo. With $119.5 million in current salaries, the Lakers will have $19.4 million available, which by coincidence will leave $9.7 million for Morris, Howard, and other free agents after $9.7 million in raises for AD, KCP, and Rondo.

The Lakers can still make another roster move to increase the $9.7 million for Morris, Howard, and other free agents to $12.4 million by waiving and stretching the guaranteed $1 million of Quinn Cook’s $3 million contract. That will get them close to being able to utilize the full $12.9 million that is available in the form of the $9.3 million non-taxpayer MLE and the $3.6 million BAE allowable to teams who choose the hard cap option.

That $12.4 million should enable the Lakers to keep Morris and Howard in addition to AD, KCP, and Rondo as well as being able to add one or two key free agents from other teams to significantly upgrade next season’s roster. The other advantage the hard cap allows is sign-and-trades, which could enable the Lakers to pursue free agents like Fred VanVleet, Christian Wood, and Maurice Harkless who will demand higher offers than the MLE.

Unless the NBA surprises everybody and raises the salary cap, the Lakers will be forced to become hard capped if they want to re-sign their key free agents and build a better team to defend their championship next season.

With Anthony Davis committing to re-signing with the Los Angeles Lakers, Christian Wood becomes the preeminent free agent big man this offseason, which means there’s a good chance there will be a bidding war to land him.

While some free agent pundits established Wood’s market value around $10 million per year, other analysts have suggested he could command as much as $15 to $17 million per year based on his breakout year with the Pistons. Right now, there are six NBA teams who currently have the cap space to make an offer that high for Christian Wood: the Atlanta Hawks, New York Knicks, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, and Phoenix Suns.

But other NBA teams could also make roster moves to create the cap space to add their names to the list and teams like the Lakers without cap space could expand the competition by proposing sign-and-trade offers for Wood. If the Lakers are serious about trading for Wood, the two big questions are who will be their competitors for him and what should be their ceiling in terms of dollars and assets offered when it comes to consummating a deal?

One thing that still haunts me is how Wood has the same unique skill set to play offense and defense at all three levels like Davis, which also makes him exactly the type of player teams need to match AD at both ends of the court. Davis’ ascension as a unicorn and the best big man in the game today has not gone unnoticed by the rest of the NBA. League GM’s now know the road to the NBA championship now runs through the Lakers and Anthony Davis.

We know the Celtics and Warriors have expressed interest in trading for the Pacers Myles Turner, whose another modern center who can protect the rim and defend in space on the perimeter. Perfect defender for Anthony Davis. Christian Wood falls into the same category and the Lakers should pursue him both to create a juggernaut team and prevent competitors from adding a player to counter the ultimate weapon they have in Anthony Davis.

Players like Christian Wood and Myles Turner are going to ignite an arms race between the elite teams looking for an answer for Anthony Davis and a way to derail what they fear will be another Lakers’ championship dynasty. The Lakers’ likely competition for Christian Wood is not going to come from the Hawks, Nicks, Pistons, and Suns; it’s going to come from teams looking for ways to pass the Lakers: the Heat, Clippers, Warriors, Celtics, and Bucks.

Unfortunately, that levels the playing field to acquire Wood more than if it were just a contest betweens teams offering only the MLE or money instead of an opportunity to win but the Lakers still have one significant advantage. They are the NBA Champions and Christian would be joining the team with the best two players in the world and a better opportunity to win a ring. The only question is how much would the Lakers be willing to pay to sign him?

Besides first year salary, the Lakers need to offer Wood a three-year deal so they will have his Bird rights and be able to go over the cap to keep him once the contract expires, which means compromising their 2021 plans. Since the Lakers will still want to have the option to pursue a third superstar after next season, they need to make sure Wood and his contract are easily tradable if necessary to create cap space to sign that superstar in 2021.

The maximum contract the Lakers should offer Christian Wood is a three-year $45 million deal starting at $15 million per year. Combined with a chance to win a championship, that should be an offer he just can’t refuse. Other teams could offer a few million more but the chance to join the champs and play with LeBron and AD in L.A. should be irresistible for a 25-year old who played for 4 teams in 5 years with a top salary of $1.6 million.

Assuming the Lakers can come to an agreement with Christian Wood on a contract, all that remains is working out an acceptable sign-and-trade deal the Detroit Pistons will accept as equitable compensation for trading him. The obvious centerpiece to the sign-and-trade deal is Lakers forward and Flint, Michigan native Kyle Kuzma, about whom the Lakers and Pistons had already had trade discussions before the trade deadline last winter.

The Pistons are in a difficult position. They would love to re-sign Wood and have the cap space to do it but he has announced that he’s going to leave via Instagram and they don’t want to lose him in free agency for nothing. While they Pistons have over $30 million in cap space, Detroit is not a top destination for free agents, which makes using their cap space to take on salary in a sign-and-trade a resourceful strategy to acquire quality players.

With Wood having agreed to a contract with the Lakers eliminating other potential trade partners, the Pistons would still have leverage knowing the Lakers don’t have cap space and need Detroit to agree to a sign-and-trade. But an offer from the Lakers of Kyle Kuzma, Danny Green, JaVale McGee, Quinn Cook, and their 2020 first round pick should give the Pistons more than fair compensation for agreeing to sign-and-trade Christian Wood.

The drawback for the Lakers adding a player via a sign-and-trade deal is it would limit their total payroll costs for the 2021 season to a hard cap of $138.9 million, meaning the Lakers could not exceed that for any reason. Right now, the Lakers have committed $119.6 million to 11 players in 2021. Bradley and McGee are not expected to exercise their player options but Davis, Caldwell-Pope, and Rondo are expected to opt out looking for raises.

Assuming the Lakers re-sign AD to a 1+1 max contract for $32.7 million and give both KCP and Rondo raises to $12 and $6 million using their Bird and Early Bird rights, they would then have $130.3 million committed for 2021. That would leave they with just $8.6 million left to add 4 more players to their roster, making it impossible to use the full $9.6 million MLE and challenging to use the $3.6 million BAE or even sign their first round pick.

But a sign-and-trade of Kuzma, Green, McGee, and Cook’s $26.1 million for Wood’s $15 million would free up $11.1 million in cap space and give the Lakers $119.2 million in salaries for 2021, $19.7 million under the hard cap. That would enable the Lakers to pursue free agents like Dragic, Gallinari, Harkness, and Baynes with their MLE, re-sign Morris or Howard with their BAE, and add other minimum salary players like Cousins or Dudley.

A sign-and-trade between the Detroit Pistons and the Los Angeles Lakers of Christian Wood for Kyle Kuzma, Danny Green, JaVale McGee, Quinn Cook, and the 28th pick in the 2020 NBA draft should be a win-win for both teams. The Lakers get a player who could transform their team and clear cap space to give raises to AD, KCP, and Rondo and use their MLE and BAE to further upgrade their roster despite being limited by the $138.9 million hard cap.

Detroit avoids losing a player who could have left in free agency and, instead of nothing, receives four championship-tested players they could not have attracted in free agency plus a first round draft pick from a sign-and-trade. The Pistons get the home town star they wanted in Kuzma, two quality defenders who are great roster fits in Green and McGee, a deadeye shooter whose contract is only partially guaranteed in Cook, and a first round pick.

While deals proposed by bloggers never happen, the approach outlined is a perfect blueprint for how the Lakers can take advantage of a trade or sign-and-trade to acquire a high impact player while increasing their cap space. The Lakers will need to figure out how to navigate a hard cap to reward key contributors like KCP and Rondo, use their full non-taxpayer MLE or BAE to upgrade the roster, or go after an elite prospect via a sign-and-trade.

I think it’s a question of whether he starts and plays starter minutes versus just being part of the rotation as a 7th or 8th man. Considering how good Talen is playing at 20, he’s going to be a game changer when it comes to the Lakers roster and rotations.

If he grows enough to be a starter, that opens up great opportunities for the Lakers going forward. He opens the door for the Lakers to put together a trade package that could include Schroder, KCP, and Kzma for a third superstar.

Of course, the grand prize is Talen becomes that third superstar. That’s what the Lakers believe is possible considering how great he is playing at just 20 years old. Imagine him two or three years from now. He’s like the Lakers getting a top five pick in the second round.

While the Lakers are over the salary cap, they still may be able to re-sign valuable free agent role players with raises as well as signing a free agent third scorer, second playmaker, elite wing defender, or modern center.

The Lakers will have to take advantage of league exceptions which allow teams to go over the cap when signing free agents, synchronized execution of the transactions, and opportunistic use of their MLE in a buyers’ market. The Lakers won’t be able to bring back every role player who contributed to their championship but should be able to re-sign the three most important and irreplaceable role players while giving them well deserved raises.

Those three role players are Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Rajon Rondo, and Markieff Morris, all of whom were invaluable contributors to the Lakers’ championship rotation and are essential to the team winning next season. KCP and Rondo are exercising their player options to become free agents while Morris will be a free agent when his 1-year minimum deal expires. The Lakers need to re-sign all three and give them well deserved raises.

Caldwell-Pope earned $8.1 million last season and could easily attract offers between $10 to $12 million as a free agent but the Lakers have his Bird rights and are allowed to go over the salary cap up to re-sign him. Kenny proved he was the team’s third best player and a key component of the offense and defense during the regular season and playoffs. The Lakers should reward him with a 2 or 3-year contract for $12 million per year.

Rondo earned $2.6 million last season and proved to be indispensable both as a floor general and playmaker in the playoffs, setting a record for the most assists from a player off the bench in the history of the NBA playoffs. Rajon should attract offers for taxpayers’ MLE, around $5 million next season. The Lakers have his Early Bird rights and should reward him with a 2-year contract for $6 million with the second year partially guaranteed.

Morris was a late addition replacing Avery Bradley before the season restart. As a power forward who could shoot from deep and defend, he was the catalyst that allowed Anthony Davis to play as center for the Lakers. Markieff earned $2.2 million last season but should receive offers of $3 to $4 million as a free agent. The Lakers should use their Bi-Annual Exception to re-sign him to a 2-year $3.6 per year million contract as he is a key player.

By using Bird rights to re-sign KCP, Early Bird rights to re-sign Rondo, and the Bi-Annual Exception to re-sign Morris, the Laker will have their full $9.3 million non-taxpayer Mid-Level Exception available to pursue free agents. With few teams having major cap space, the $9.3 million MLE and a chance to win a championship ring is likely to make the Lakers a major player for all but a half dozen elite free agents like Fred VanVleet or Davis Bertans.

The Lakers should have no problem filling roster needs with the MLE. How about Danilo Gallinari as their third scorer. Goran Dragic as their second playmaker, Mo Harkness as wing defender, or Aron Baynes as stretch big? There will only be five NBA teams with cap space to offer more to Gallinari, Dragic, Harkness, or Baynes than the Lakers and of those, only the Miami Heat had a winning record last season. The Lakers will get one of these.

Finally, the Lakers will end up with two or three roster spots to be filled by minimum salary veterans looking for an opportunity to win a championship ring or revitalize their career like Dwight Howard and Rajon Rondo did. Heading the list of players in this category will be DeMarcus Cousins, who spent all of last year on the Lakers’ active roster or working out at their facilities after they waived him to sign Markieff Morris before the restart.

So while the Lakers don’t have cap space this offseason, they’re still going to be major players in the free agent market and should be able to re-sign their key free agent role players as well as signing at least one major free agent.