Lakerholics

The Los Angeles Lakers appeared to have outlasted first the Philadelphia 76ers and then the Miami Heat to pull off a mega trade for Kyle Lowry and win today’s NBA Trade Deadline Sweepstakes only to sadly fold their cards.

In the end, the Lakers refused to include 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker in their offer of Dennis Schroder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for Kyle Lowry and the Raptors’ Masai Ujuri called Rob Pelinka’s bluff and nixed the trade. The Raptors kept the 35-year old Lowry and the Lakers came up empty, even failing to make tweaks to what is a seriously flawed roster desperately in need of a playmaking guard, rim protecting center, and 3-point shooting.

As a longtime resident of THT Island, I’m glad Talen is still wearing purple and gold but also disappointed Rob did not pull the trigger on the trade for Kyle Lowry, whom I think could have made the Lakers dramatically better. But as I’ve said many times, I trust Rob Pelinka to make the right decisions for the Lakers and understand, as fans, we never have the benefit of the inside information, insights, or expertise of our front office professionals.

While I’m sure will learn more about what happened the next few days, here are my thoughts about the decision not to trade for Lowry and the questions it raises for the rest of the Lakers’ season and next summer:

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The first question is why did the Lakers refuse to include 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker in the trade since his contribution over the next two years was unlikely to be as great as that of a 35-year old All-Star like Kyle Lowry?

To start with, the Lakers may not have wanted to commit to giving Lowry the 2-year $50 million extension he wanted if traded. The reason they were willing to trade Schroder was the 4-year $100 million extension he wanted. Further, part of the reason they were willing to trade Caldwell-Pope was his 3-year $40 million extension. The Lakers clearly wanted to cut salary with Caruso and Horton-Tucker entering free agency and luxury taxes looming.

Then there’s the obvious reluctance to part with 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker, whom the Lakers believe has legitimate star potential. Pelinka has done a great job balancing the demands to win now with the Lakers’ future. Horton-Tucker is a Klutch Sports client and a player the Lakers drafted on the specific recommendation of LeBron James. It’s entirely possible James and Davis were participants in a decision not to include THT in any trades.

In the end, the Lakers obviously felt confident that they could still win the championship with their current roster and a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis plus whomever they could sign from the buyout market.

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The next question is what does not making a trade mean for the Lakers, both for the 2 to 3 weeks remaining before AD returns and the 3 to 5 weeks left before LeBron returns, as well as down the stretch and in the playoffs?

The good news is Marc Gasol will return for tonight’s game against the 76ers, although on a 15-minute limit. With Embiid still injured and trade deadline in the rear view mirror, the Lakers will need to be ready to play. The front office just made a huge bet on them to be able to do the job. Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Talen Horton-Tucker need to show everybody the confidence shown in them was not misplaced.

The Lakers are 5.5 point underdogs tonight. They have 28 games left in the regular season, probably 10 more games before Davis returns, another 10 more before James returns, and then a final 8 before the playoffs begin. They’re currently in 4th place in the West, just two losses ahead of the 6th place Trail Blazers. To finish in the top 6 in the West, the 28–16 Lakers will have to finish close to 42–30, which means finishing the season 14–14.

Assuming they sign Drummond and another rotation player in the buyout market and James and Davis return when expected, the Lakers should be able to play .500 ball the rest of the way and avoid the play-in tourney.

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Assuming LeBron James and Anthony Davis are rested and healthy for the playoffs, the Lakers should have a good chance of repeating even though the competition will be much tougher this year than last year in the bubble.

The key could be how well Frank Vogel can integrate Andre Drummond into the Lakers’ offense and defense and whether they can sign a quality high volume 3-point shooter in the buyout market to increase their made threes. We saw promising signs from the Harrell, Kuzma, and Horton-Tucker bench before James went down with the injury and the Lakers are going to need that trio to grow and develop down the stretch and in the playoffs to repeat.

They’re also going to need Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Markieff Morris, and Anthony Davis to play like they did in last year’s playoffs to have any chance of winning four playoff series and repeating as NBA champions this year. Schroder and Horton-Tucker are going to have to replace the magic Playoff Rondo provided last season and Anthony Davis is going to have match the hot long range shooting and dominating defense he provided last year.

Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office bet this team could still win the championship without making a major trade. I’m hoping they were right and I was wrong because that’s what today’s decision was really about.

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Finally, the biggest worry may be how today’s decision not to make any trades will impact the Lakers this summer as they basically kicked the can on making critically needed improvement down the road until this offseason.

As a taxpayer, they will not be able to take advantage of the non-taxpayer MLE or BAE or sign-and-trades as there’s no way they can keep Caruso and Horton-Tucker in free agency if they become hard capped like this season. The built-in raises for James, Davis, and Caldwell-Pope, Kuzma’s extension kicking in, and re-signing Caruso and Horton-Tucker will push the Lakers into the luxury tax. Win or lose, trades will be the only way to improve.

The Lakers prospects next summer will depend heavily on whether or not they repeat as champions. If they did, the goal will be to threepeat and the bet on the current roster and maybe Talen Horton-Tucker paid off big. Unfortunately, if they lose, everybody will look back at the decision to not trade for Kyle Lowry, LeBron will be a year older, and the Lakers may face tough decision about how to get their championship mojo back.

Right now, the next big battle is to sign Andre Drummond and a second rotation player who is a volume 3-point shooter and plus defender to help the Lakers weather the storm and win games until LeBron and AD get back.

The clock is ticking and the Lakers have 24 hours left to find a playmaking, volume 3-point shooting, impact guard to replace LeBron James and a big rim protecting, athletic, shot blocking center to replace Anthony Davis.

The recent media take is the Lakers are willing to move some combination of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, and Marc Gasol to find a playmaking, 3-point shooting guard to turbo charge their flailing offense. While their current position is they’re not willing to part with young Talen Horton-Tucker or their 2027 first round pick as part of any deal, it’s hard to see that preventing them from pulling the trigger on a promising trade.

The Lakers also seem committed to waiting for the buyout market after the trade deadline to sign Andre Drummond to protect the rim and stop the bleeding of opponent points in the paint that’s undermined their defense. The Cavs are almost certainly going to have to buyout Drummond and the opportunity to become the Lakers’ starting center and win a championship alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis make LA the heavy favorite.

So let’s take a closer look at the guards whom the Lakers may be targeting, how they would help solve the team’s current offensive woes, who are the major competitors, and what it might take for the Lakers to trade for them.

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1. LONZO BALL

New Orleans Pelicans, PG, 23 yrs, 6′ 6,” 190 lbs
TYR$11,003,782, NYR $14,359,936 QO
14.2/4.2/5.6, 42.5/38.5/76.7%, 7.8 3PA

Lonzo is perfect point guard for the Lakers without or with LeBron. Adds playmaking and volume 3-point shooting. KCP is better option than Bledsoe or Redick at shooting guard and brings defense for 28th ranked Pelicans. If needed, Lakers should be willing to include THT or 2027 first round pick.

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2. VICTOR OLADIPO

Houston Rockets, SG, 28 yes, 6′ 4,” 210 lbs
TYR $21,000,000
20.8/5.0/4.7, 41.1/33.3/76.7%, 7.7 3PA

Victor would be a great fit on both ends of court short and long term for Lakers if healthy. Playmaker, volume 3-point shooter, and elite defender. KCP is able replacement at the two and Rockets have cap space to re-sign Trezz. Trading for Oladipo is a gamble but could get coveted third superstar.

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3. TERRY ROZIER

Charlotte Hornets, 27 yrs, SG, 6′ 1,” 190 lbs
TYR $18,900,000, NYR $17,905,263
20.2/3.8/3.3, 47.3/41.8/84.7%, 7.9 3PA

Terry would give the Lakers a playmaking, high scoring, high volume 3-point shooting guard they need to pair with Schroder. Harrell would give the Hornets the front court scorer they need and KCP an able replacement for Rozier. Trade could be expanded to include centers Gasol and Biyombo.

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4. MALCOLM BROGDON

Indiana Pacers, 28 yrs, PG, 6′ 5,” 229 lbs
TYR $20,700,000, YR2 $21,700,000, YR3 $22,600,000
21.6/4.7/6.1, 46.0/39.8/87.7%, 6.5 3PA

Brogdon would be a terrific fit on the Lakers for the season and the playoffs. Excellent playmaker, volume 3-point shooter, and defender. KCP would be a good 3&D addition to the Pacers and Harrell the scoring backup to Sabonis and Turner they need. Lakers take advantage of Pacers cutting payroll.

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5. KYLE LOWRY

Toronto Raptors, 34 yrs, 6′ 0,” 196 lbs
TYR $30,500,000
17.6/5.6/7.4, 43.8/39.1/88.4%, 7.2 3PA

Lowry would be the perfect point guard for the Lakers. True point guard who’s also a volume 3-point shooter, team leader, and proven defender. Raptors get young point guard replacement in Schroder, elite backup in Harrell, dump Baynes for return of Gasol, and quality guard depth in KCP.

Multiple NBA cognoscenti have confirmed centers Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell have been put on the trading block, which means Andre Drummond has agreed to join the Los Angeles Lakers once his Cavs’ buyout is complete.

While the timing could still be tricky, there’s no way the Lakers would be shopping the only two centers on their roster unless they were completely confident Andre Drummond was going to be available and sign with them. While nothing is certain until all the contracts are signed, it appears the Lakers are looking to go all-in on revamping their roster in the wake of the recent ankle injury that’s likely going to keep LeBron James our for weeks.

In addition to Gasol and Harrell, reports confirm the Lakers have also been shopping starting shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who signed a 3-year extension this offseason but has been mired in a horrendous slump. While Gasol’s and KCP’s trade values have plummeted, Montrezl Harrell’s value as a trading chip has never been higher as he’s expanded his game at both ends of the court and will be in line for a major raise in free agency.

The big question now is what will Rob Pelinka to be able to acquire in trade for Montrezl Harrell, Marc Gasol, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to help the Lakers both until LeBron and AD return and to repeat as NBA champions? Assuming Drummond solves the starting center rim protection issues, the Lakers’ top priority short term has to be a true lead or point guard to run the offense and make plays for teammates until LeBron James returns.

Montrezl Harrell, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Marc Gasol represent $23.8 million in potential outgoing salary. Since the Lakers are only $2 million below the hard cap, they can bring back $25.8 million in salary. With the Lakers looking for a true point guard and extension talks with Schroder possibly stalled, it’s not impossible the Lakers might be willing to include Dennis’ $15.5 million salary to pursue a player like Kyle Lowry.

Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Marc Gasol to the Raptors for Kyle Lowry might be a real possibility. Lowry and Drummond could keep the Lakers winning in the short term until LeBron and AD can come back. The Lakers could then trade Harrell, Matthews, McKinnie, and Dudley to the Hornets for Terry Rozier. Lowry and Rozier would be give the Lakers a dramatically upgraded backcourt with two volume 3-point shooters.

The Lakers would not only be able to thrive in the short term but would be better positioned to repeat as NBA champions with a starting lineup of Kyle Lowry, Terry Rozier, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Andre Drummond. They’d also have a strong bench and deep roster by keeping Talen Horton-Tucker, Alex Caruso, Kyle Kuzma, and Markieff Morris to back up the guard and forward positions and re-signing Damian Jones to backup center.

These are, of course, just two of the options Rob Pelinka and the Lakers might be considering. They would be smart to be looking at Lonzo Ball at point guard and Bogdan Bogdanovic and Victor Oladipo at shooting guard. The one thing that seems certain is the Lakers appear to have reached an agreement in principle with Andre Drummond and have now put Montrezl Harrell, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Marc Gasol on the trading block.

And that is great news for Lakers fans as it show that Rob Pelinka realizes they simply cannot stand pat in the wake of LeBron’s injury. Instead, they must embrace this as a chance to rebuild the roster short and long term. While you never want to see a superstar player suffer an injury, this could turn out to be a blessing for the Lakers. The silver lining could be LeBron getting needed time off and the Lakers getting a roster building mulligan.

There’s nothing more exciting than NBA free agency and the trade deadline. Rob Pelinka has an opportunity to turn what appeared to be disaster that threatened the Lakers championship hopes into a brilliant transformation.

One thing the Lakers have learned playing without their two superstars is which role players can still do their job, fill their role, and provide value and which players don’t have the talent and confidence needed to go it alone.

Watching the Lakers regroup after losing Davis to injury and then trying to do the same after losing James has been an illuminating experience for the team, it’s front office and coaching staff, and the other teams in the NBA. Any lingering sense of invincibility the defending champions may have had has been rudely dismissed as opponents see a wide open opportunity with the injured Lakers either limping into or possibly even missing the playoffs.

Fortunately, the Lakers still have 3 days until the March 25 trade deadline to to fill their needs for a legitimate lead guard, volume 3-point shooters to turbocharge the offense, and better rim protection to anchor the defense. Unfortunately, their best trading chips to get help until LeBron and AD return are point guard Dennis Schroder and center Montrezl Harrell, who also happen to be the two most needed players to help weather the storm.

Without LeBron and AD, the Lakers find themselves in a conundrum where their third and fourth best players — Schroder and Harrell — while gamely playing their hearts out may just not good enough to survive this stretch. The issue is the Lakers need more playmaking and 3-point shooting at point guard than they’re getting from Schroder and more rim protection and pick-and-roll defense from the center position than they getting from Harrell.

Having desirable trading chips for the positions you’re looking to upgrade can be a good thing in most situations. Teams need other players to fill the positional holes in the roster made whenever they trade a rotation player. Unfortunately, when a team is already shorthanded when it comes to point guards and centers as the Lakers are, it makes it hard to trade Schroder without getting a point guard back or Harrell without getting a center back.

The Hornets have three quality point guards in LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Devonte Graham and are interested in Montrezl Harrell but the Lakers can’t trade Trezz unless they have a center replacement lined up for him. That’s why Pelinka is going to have to set up a series of two or three trades to successfully revamp the roster to survive this period and fill the holes to make the Lakers a better team at both ends of the court before the playoffs.

There’s always a hesitancy and reluctance, especially among fans, to break up a championship roster but the Lakers’ current situation right now is so dire they need major changes to avoid falling completely out of contention. That means making multiple trades to fix their needs for more playmaking, volume 3-point shooting, and improved rim protection. It’s like President Biden’s position on Covid relief: the bigger gamble is not doing enough.

There are opportunities out there for Rob Pelinka and the Lakers to take advantage of. The Pelicans want to move Lonzo Ball. The Hornets are interested in Montrezl Harrell. The Pacers may be willing to trade Turner. Drummond may find starting center for the Lakers his best option. Harrell’s and Schroder’s trade value may be peaking and the Lakers have KCP as salary ballast and THT and their 2027 first round pick as sweeteners.

Best of all, LeBron James’ injury has suddenly given Rob Pelinka the freedom to make dramatic moves without great fear of blowback, not unlike a player given the chance to launch a half court shot at the buzzer.

The Los Angeles Lakers got a brutal reminder of how one play could change the destiny of a team’s season when an ankle injury to LeBron James left the team facing the prospect of several weeks without their two superstars.

The good news is the both James and Davis should be recovered before the 2021 NBA Playoffs begin on May 22nd and the Lakers still have four days left to seek help via a trade or buyout before the March 23rd trade deadline. Before the injury, the media consensus was the Lakers were unlikely to make a major move but, with James’ and Davis’ return being unpredictable, there’s an emerging strong case for Rob Pelinka to be bold and think big.

Even healthy, the Lakers faced a tougher challenge to win the championship this season than they did in the bubble last season since the Jazz, 76ers, Suns, Nets, Clippers, and Bucks having improved their rosters over last year. With both superstars suffering major injuries that could linger into the playoffs, the Lakers desperately need help in the form of a star quality playmaker to run the offense and elite rim protector to anchor the defense.

The most optimistic projections would have Anthony Davis and LeBron James possibly returning in two to three weeks, which would still mean the 28–14 Lakers would have to play 7 to 11 games without their superstars. The worst case scenario would have Davis missing up to 4 weeks more and LeBron 8 weeks, leaving the Lakers fighting for playoff positioning and their two superstars fighting to get into shape the last 2 to 4 weeks of the season.

LeBron’s injury could have dire consequences for the Lakers’ playoff hopes. After tonight, the Lakers could own just a 2-game lead in the loss column over the 7th place Spurs and only 5 games over the 10th place Grizzlies. Anything other than a best case scenario could easily leave the Lakers having to participate in the 2-game win-or-go-home Play-In Tournament between the West’s 7th through 10th seeds just to get into the playoffs.

The Lakers have 30 games left in the regular season. In a best case scenario, they’ll only lose their superstars for 10 games and have 20 to make up ground. In a worst case scenario, those numbers could easily be reversed. Complicating the situation, James’ and Davis’ injuries are the kind where the Lakers won’t know when they’re ready to play until they’re ready, which could make it imperative for Rob Pelinka to make a big move right now.

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The silver lining is LeBron’s injury has answered the question of whether the Lakers need to make major moves to improve their roster. Now the question becomes what are the specific moves the Lakers should make. Before LeBron’s injury, the Lakers’ major needs were high volume 3-point shooters and an elite rim protector. Now you can add a true point guard capable of creating quality shots for himself and teammates to the list.

While Myles Turner would be the ideal solution as a rim protector, the Lakers would be smart to save their trading chips for a playmaking volume 3-point shooter and get a Drummond or Whiteside via the buyout market. Until LeBron returns, the Lakers will desperately need somebody to replace his elite playmaking and volume 3-point shooting. Three available players who could fill that need are Kyle Lowry, Devonte Graham, and Lonzo Ball.

Lowry would be the perfect solution if the Raptors decide to move him. But Kyle makes $30.0 million and it would cost a package of Schroder, Harrell, and KCP, which is just too much for the undermanned Lakers to give up. Convincing the Hornets to give up Graham is also going to be difficult as he only makes $1.6 million per year, which makes it hard for Charlotte to get value in a trade. Best offer would be THT and a 2027 first round pick.

That leaves polarizing former Lakers’ point guard Lonzo Ball, who makes $11 million per year and will become a restricted free agent this summer, as the ideal trade target for Los Angeles to go after to cover for LeBron’s injury. Lonzo is averaging 14.2 point, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.6 assists in 31.7 minutes per game while shooting 42.5% from the field, 38.5% from deep on 7.8 threes per game, and a greatly improved 76.7% from the free throw line.

While Ball is polarizing for many Lakers fans, he’s the perfect point guard to pair with Dennis Schroder and has developed into an excellent 3&D guard who knows how to play off the ball alongside ball dominant star players. The Lakers might be able to trade Lonzo for a package of KCP and THT. A salary controlled KCP could be a great fit as the replacement for Bledsoe and Redick at shooting guard with THT’s elite potential as the sweetener.

A Lonzo Ball and Dennis Schroder starting backcourt with Drummond at center could be exactly what the Lakers need both in the short term until LeBron and AD return as well as in the playoffs when everybody’s healthy. The playmaking, volume 3-point shooting, and defensive switch-ability Lonzo brings would dramatically improve the Lakers starting lineup. As a bonus, trading for Lonzo would prevent him from joining the Clippers.

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Rob Pelinka has a big challenge on his hands to make the right decisions to enable the Lakers to weather the short term without LeBron and AD while still making key moves to upgrade the team’s roster for the playoffs. Landing a quality playmaking point guard who’s also a volume 3-point shooter and good defender plus an elite rim protector who won’t get played off the floor in the playoffs is not going to be easy without giving up depth.

There’s no question LeBron’s unfortunate injury has dramatically changed everything. What Rob Pelinka and the Lakers decide to do the next four days could be critical to their chances of repeating as NBA champions.