Lakerholics

While it will be impossible for the Lakers to clear enough cap space to offer Giannis Antetokounmpo a maximum contract in free agency next offseason, there is a path to make an Anthony Davis style midseason trade for Giannis.

The problem with pursuing Giannis in free agency is the Lakers already have two superstars making 65% of the cap and adding him would mean 95% for three players and the 5% left is not enough money to field a legal team. Teams with one max player like Miami could add Antetokounmpo via free agency but not a team like the Lakers with two max players, not without one or more of the max players accepting a 10-20% pay cut to build a Big Three.

The solution for the Lakers to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo is to trade for him and then use his Bird rights to go over the cap to sign him to a max contract. Frankly, it’s the only way the Lakers can legally create a Big Three. It’s also the only way to acquire Giannis without having to jettison the entire championship roster they’ve spent the last two years assembling. It’s also why Giannis should want to be traded rather than signed as a free agent.

Giannis has one year left on his contract with the Milwaukee Bucks with annual pay of $27,528,088. If he’s not signed a supermax extension with the Bucks before the season starts, he’ll be a major target at the trade deadline. Were Giannis to demand to be traded to the Lakers ala Anthony Davis, L.A. could end up making the best offer considering other contenders might not be willing to bid more for what might end up being a half season rental.

That means an offer from the Lakers of Dennis Schroder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, whose salaries total $29,850,000 might be the best trade offer the Milwaukee Bucks receive for superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. The key to making this strategy actually work is the Lakers showing Giannis through their play that they’re the not only best destination for him to win multiple championships but also the team that’s the best fit for him.

Once the Lakers trade for Antetokounmpo, they would then own his Bird rights and would be able, after the end of the season, to go over the salary cap and offer Giannis a new max contract starting at $39,200,000 per year. The Lakers would be deep in the luxury tax with total salaries approaching $160,000,000 but, unlike free agency scenarios where teams were left with only superstars, they would still have their complete championship roster.

The difference between Giannis joining a fully built out championship team via trade versus signing with a contending team with a stipped down roster via free agency becomes a major selling point for him demanding a trade. Any team that’s pared their roster to create $39 million in cap space to sign Giannis Antetokounmpo is realistically going to be another Milwaukee Bucks team that’s going to be relying heavily upon him to win it all.

Demanding a trade is the answer and the challenge is convincing Giannis joining a Lakers championship team with LeBron and AD via trade is better than joining an unproven Miami Heat team without a superstar via trade. That’s where the question of fit becomes important because there’s no team other than the Lakers who have two championship tested superstars to help Giannis carry the load and a proven deep and talented supporting cast.

Of course, the ‘trade and then use Bird rights to max’ blueprint is not limited to Giannis or the Lakers. It’s a strategy every team with two superstars, like the Clippers, Warriors, and Nets, will also be looking for a chance to deploy. That’s why all of the major contenders looking to acquire Antetokounmpo will be watching closely as Giannis will have until the day before the 2021 season to accept or decline the supermax offer from the Milwaukee Bucks.

If Giannis accepts the Bucks’ supermax offer, the focus will then switch to other superstars slated to become free agents next offseason, including Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Jrue Holiday, Rudy Gobert, and Victor Oladipo. Should Giannis decline the offer, the Bucks will need a breakout start to the season or face heavy pressure at the midseason deadline to trade Giannis to prevent losing him for nothing in free agency at the end of the year.

While there’s always the chance the Bucks can work out a sign-and-trade deal for Giannis if they wait until he becomes a free agent next offseason, that’s too great a risk to take as losing him for nothing would be a disaster. Bottom line, Milwaukee has to hope adding Jrue Holiday and other pieces was enough to convince Giannis to sign the supermax. Otherwise, the future of their franchise could be on the line come the midseason trade deadline.

Meanwhile, Rob Pelinka has positioned the Los Angeles Lakers with a collection of valuable assets to pull off a mega midseason deal to land a third max superstar to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Whether Giannis is the main target or not, the Lakers will be primed and ready to deploy their repertoire of trade assets to land whatever available superstar they think is the best fit to help them win the short and long term.

Rob Pelinka and the Los Angeles Lakers have won the NBA offseason by dramatically upgrading their championship roster, setting themselves up for a midseason mega trade, and keeping their cap space clear for 2021.

While there’s still work to do signing veteran centers to minimum contracts and maybe pulling off a blockbuster trade to land Sacramento Kings guard Bogdan Bogdanovic, Pelinka and the Lakers dominated the competition. Without the distraction of waiting for Kawhi, Pelinka was like a chessmaster in a checkers tournament not only filling all the Lakers’ major roster needs but also positioning the team perfectly for even bigger moves in the future.

1. Upgrading a Championship Roster.

Rob Pelinka kicked off the offseason by filling the Lakers’ need for a second playmaker and third scorer by trading shooting guard Danny Green and the 28th pick in the NBA draft for OKC Thunder point guard Dennis Schroder. Swapping 34-year old Green for the 27-year old Schroder not only gave the Lakers a player who fits Anthony Davis’ timeline but also a lightning quick point guard who shot better from deep and had a better defensive rating.

Pelinka then used free agency to fill the 3-and-D hole left by trading Green by signing Milwaukee Bucks’ free agent guard Wes Matthews, a better wing defender and 3-point shooter than Green, with the Bi-Annual Exception. Finally, the Lakers surprised the entire league by stealing backup center and Sixth Man of the Year winner Montrezl Harrell from their crosstown rival Los Angeles Clippers with the full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception.

Replacing Green, Howard, and Rondo with Schroder, Matthews, and Harrell dramatically upgrades the Lakers’ offense. While Schroder and Matthews are better defenders than Rondo and Green, Howard’s better than Harrell. The real bang for the Lakers is on the offensive side where the addition of Schroder, Matthews, and Harrell adds an astonishing 24.3 points per game, 44.9 points per game vs. 20.6 points per game Green, Howard, and Rondo.

And the Lakers may not be done. They’re still rumored to be working on a blockbuster trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic and looking to sign veteran players to minimum contracts to fill out their roster and center rotation.

2. Setting Up a Midseason Mega Trade.

By collecting attractive assets on favorable midsized contracts, Pelinka has the Lakers perfectly positioned to pull off a midseason blockbuster trade for a coveted third superstar to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis. With teams looking to move superstars like Giannis Antetokounmpo who are slated to become unrestricted free agents at the end of the season, the midseason trade deadline could even be crazier than this wild offseason.

Last season, the Lakers lacked assets to make a move at the trade deadline. This season, between Schroder, Harrell, and KCP, Rob Pelinka will have almost $40 million in attractive tradable contracts to pull off a mega trade. That flexibility will also enable the Lakers to tweak their roster in case of injuries or players underperforming and take advantage of opportunities that might arise if the havoc of the coronavirus pandemic panics teams.

Making a midseason mega trade for a third superstar who’s going to be a free agent at the end of the season has big advantages for the Lakers. First, the risk of not being able to re-sign the player can reduce competitive offers. Second, the Lakers would receive Bird rights which would enable them to to over the cap to re-sign the player to a max contract. Realistically, that’s the only way the Lakers could end up with three superstars on max contracts.

Last offseason, waiting for Kawhi kept the Lakers from from positioning themselves for a midseason mega trade. This offseason Rob was able to fill the Lakers’ immediate needs and set the team up for a big midseason move.

3. Keeping Cap Space Clear for 2021.

If there’s been one overriding strategy since Rob Pelinka took over from Magic Johnson at VP of Basketball Operations for the Lakers, it was to clear max cap space for the 2021 offseason to pursue Giannis Antetokounmpo. While the Lakers are not done building out their roster for 2021, there’s no doubt they’re still prioritizing keeping their cap sheet as clear as possible as none of the deals they’ve done so far has been for multiple year contracts.

Dennis Schroder, for whom the Lakers traded Green, has one year left on his contract, Wesley Matthews signed a 1-year contract with the Lakers and Montrezl Harrell signed a below market 2-year deal with a player option. While other teams have signed players to multiple year contracts, the Lakers have stuck to their grand plan to create the max cap space possible to pursue a third superstar to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

That strategy may face its first real test should the Lakers be successful in convincing the Sacramento Kings and Bogdan Bogdanovic to mutually agree to a two-sided sign-and-trade for Kuzma, McGee, and Caldwell-Pope. Bogdanovic and Caldwell-Pope are both looking for long term contracts so the Lakers may have to make an exception if they want to trade for Bogdan or re-sign Kenny. Either way, both would still be valuable trading chips.

While the lower salary cap numbers for next offseason due to the expected lost revenue from the pandemic will make it near impossible to sign a third max contract superstar, the Lakers want the most cap flexibility possible.

The success of the Los Angeles Lakers’ offseason and chances to repeat as champions heads for a reckoning this Friday when free agency starts and the team begins a desperate quest to sign a starting center for the season.

A quick look at the Lakers’ current roster heading into free agency lists the team’s only center as JaVale McGee, whose stock went from starting the for the entire regular season to becoming essentially unplayable in the playoffs. Dwight Howard, the other center from the Lakers’ championship roster last season is a free agent who also was benched during the NBA Finals and has announced he wants a bigger contract than the team seems willing to pay.

While the McGee/Howard traditional low post center tandem was a key part of the Lakers’ regular season success, everything changed after the addition of Markieff Morris, who transformed the offense and defense. Morris’ ability to create better spacing on offense and quicker rotations on defense enabled head coach Frank Vogel to play Anthony Davis more at the center position and transform the Lakers into a championship juggernaut.

The result was both McGee and Howard became essentially unplayable against many matchups by the end of the playoffs, leaving the Lakers desperately needing to sign a starting center heading into free agency. Fortunately, there are only three teams with major cap space left and several quality centers whom the Lakers could pursue with their $9.3 million non-taxpayer MLE who’d be better fits than McGee or Howard.

Heading the list is Suns’ free agent Aron Baynes, a 33-year old, 6′ 10,” 260 lb veteran stretch five who averaged 11.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in 22.3 minutes while shooting 35.1% on 4.0 attempts per game. Aron made $5.4 million last season so the Lakers should be able to land him with a big raise by offering him their $9.3 million non-taxpayer MLE and the opportunity to start on a championship team and win a ring.

The Lakers were planning to pursue Baynes last offseason, expecting him to be waived by the Suns after they acquired him in a trade from the Celtics. Unfortunately, Phoenix kept him and he enjoyed a career season for them. Aron would be a great fit on the Lakers and his elite 3-point shooting would open the floor up and make it very hard for teams to pack the paint against LeBron James and Anthony Davis. He should be the Lakers top target.

Second on the list should be 27-year old, 7′ 0,” 240 lb free agent Willie Cauley-Stein who averaged 7.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 23.0 minutes per game last season as three-level defensive center for the Mavs. While Willie is not a stretch five, he’s an elite rim protector who can defend players on the perimeter. Together with Anthony Davis, he would give the Lakers one of the most dominating defensive front courts in the league.

Willie earned just $2.2 million last season so the Lakers should be able to sign him with their $3.6 million BAE. A pairing of Baynes and Cauley-Stein would give the Lakers a modern offensive and defensive center tandem. The Lakers could then gamble on signing the still injured DeMarcus Cousins to replace McGee and become their third center, giving them a deep and versatile center rotation of Baynes, Cauley-Stein, and Cousins.

Finally, the Lakers should pursue free agent Serge Ibaka, a 31-year old, 7′ 0,” 235 lb veteran center who averaged 15.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in 27.0 minutes while shooting 38.5% on 3.3 attempts per game. Serge made $23.2 million last year, so the best the Lakers can offer is their $9.3 million non-taxpayer MLE. Unfortunately, that may not be enough to lure him from Toronto but the Lakers should definitely make a run at him.

Last but not least, if the Lakers strike out on Baynes, Cauley-Stein, and Ibaka, they probably should consider re-signing Dwight Howard with their $3.6 million BAE as he is a better defender and rebounder than McGee. While Howard won’t give them the modern offensive or defensive center they covet, he did help them win an NBA championship and is still a solid rim protector and physical force on the boards that teams have to respect.

The true modern center has to be able to score and defend at every level. That’s why Anthony Davis is such a dominant force when he plays the five. He can score from anywhere on the court and defend all five positions.

There are modern offensive centers who can shoot the three and defensive centers who can protect the rim and defend the perimeter but Anthony Davis is a unicorn, the mythical player every team covets and cannot find. There are a few young centers like Myles Turner and Christian Wood who can emulate parts of AD’s modern offensive and defensive repertoire but the Lakers’ chances of acquiring either of them don’t appear to be realistic.

While the Lakers were successful playing two traditional low post centers during the regular season, there were crucial moments during the playoffs when both McGee and Howard essentially became unplayable at either end. They clogged the middle and made it easier for teams to pack the paint against LeBron and AD on offense and became liabilities unable to defend stretch fives or guards on the perimeter when hunted and switched.

The time has come for the Lakers to modernize the center position and replace the JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard tandem with a center duo that includes a modern offensive center and a modern defensive center. Replacing two traditional low post centers with a modern offensive center who can score at all three levels and a modern defensive center who can defend all five positions will transform the Lakers at both ends of the court.

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MODERN OFFENSIVE CENTERS:

The Lakers best offensive performances in the playoffs came when Anthony Davis played the five, Markieff Morris played the four, and the Lakers used various five out sets to create spacing for Lakers players to attack the rim.

Adding a modern stretch five center to the roster would enable the Lakers to continue to allow Anthony Davis to split his time between the four and five while providing James and Davis with optimum spacing for all 48 minutes:

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1. Aron Baynes, Free Agent

The 33-year old Aron Baynes is coming off a career year with the Phoenix Suns, where he averaged 11.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in 22.3 minutes per game while shooting 35.1% from deep on 4 threes per game. Those were career highs in 3-point percentages and attempts for a center who transformed his game the last three years to become a modern stretch center after rarely taking a three during the first five years of his career.

Baynes brings the kind of rugged physicality to the game that made Howard so valuable, setting bone crushing screens, boxing out hard on the glass, playing tough positional defense, and being in the right place at right time. Aron made $5.4 million last season so the Lakers might be able to tempt him with a slight raise and part of their $9.3 million non-taxpayer MLE and the opportunity to start on a championship team and win a ring.

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2. DeMarcus Cousins, Free Agent

Boogie’s supposedly close to being ready to play after a series of debilitating injuries that threatened to derail his career. If he’s healthy and can play anywhere near his preinjury level, he would be a top candidate to re-sign. Before his injuries, he was on pace to shoot 35.4% on over 500 attempts from beyond the arc. With career averages of 21.2 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, a healthy Cousins is the prototype modern offensive center.

We know Boogie can score inside and out, is an excellent passer, and had a lot of the same skill set as Nikola Jokic but the big question with is can he still defend or have the injuries cost him the mobility and lift needed to defend? The Lakers can likely sign the 30-year old Cousins to a veteran’s minimum contract and his great history and relationship with Anthony Davis make him a leading candidate to be the Lakers’ modern offensive center.

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3. Serge Ibaka, Free Agent

The 31-year old Serge Ibaka could be the best overall fit for the Lakers as a modern offensive center because he’s a superior 3-point shooter, rim protector, and shot blocker than either DeMarcus Cousins or Aron Baynes. The problem is he would be more expensive. Serge made $23.2 million last year, which means the best the Lakers can likely offer is their $9.3 million non-taxpayer MLE. Unfortunately, that may not be enough to lure him.

Serge averaged 15.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in 27.0 minutes while shooting 38.5% from deep on 3.3 attempts per game last season. While he’s been linked to the Lakers in rumors, he’s a long shot to acquire. The Raptors want to keep him and he’s already won a ring there. What might make the difference is offering a multiple year deal, which the Lakers may be willing to consider since Giannis may be staying with the Bucks.

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MODERN DEFENSIVE CENTERS:

The Lakers best defensive performances in the playoffs came when Anthony Davis played the five, Markieff Morris the four, and the Lakers used speed, quickness, mobility, and athleticism to protect the rim and perimeter.

Adding a modern defensive center to the roster would enable the Lakers to continue to play the aggressive suffocating defense that dominated teams in the playoffs for the entire game rather than just when Davis played the five.

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1. Willie Cauley-Stein, Free Agent

The 27-year old 7′ 0,” 240 lb Willie Cauley-Stein is my top pick to be the modern defensive center in the Lakers’ new center tandem. He averaged 7.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 23.0 minutes per game last season. Willie’s real value, however, came at the defensive end where he averaged 1.2 blocks and 1.1 steals for the Mavericks, impressive numbers for just 23.0 minutes per game. Willie has exercised his player option and is a free agent.

I believe Willie is the closest thing to Anthony Davis as a modern defensive center who can protect the rim and block shots and switch onto guards and forwards and challenge shots beyond the arc or stuff drives to the basket. Willie and AD would create a formidable defensive duo of pterodactyls who could put a suffocating lid on the Lakers’ defensive basket. I would offer Willie half of our $9.3 million non-taxpayer MLE and a chance to win a ring.

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2. Nerlens Noel, Free Agent

26-year old, 6′ 10,” 220 lb Nerlens Noel is another young, mobile, bouncy modern defensive center who can protect the rim and defend five positions who would be an excellent fit as part of the Lakers’ new center tandem. Nerlens averaged 7.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 0.9 assists in just 18.5 minutes per game. Like Cauley-Stein, Noel’s value was on defense where he averaged an amazing 1.5 blocks and 1.2 steals in less than half a game.

If the Lakers can’t sign Willie Cauley-Stein, they should definitely pursue Nerlens Noel, who only made the $1.6 million veteran minimum with the OKC Thunder last season. He would be a perfect candidate for the BAE. Considering the great job Frank Vogel did with old school centers like McGee and Howard, imagine what he could put together with a faster, younger, and more athletic center like Nerlens Noel next to Anthony Davis.

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3. Tristan Thompson, Free Agent

The 29-year old, 6′ 9.” 254 lb Tristan Thompson is a former teammate and long time friend of LeBron James, who respects his defensive ability and would love to have him join the Lakers as their modern defensive center. While his blocks and steals stats don’t compare with the younger Cauley-Stein or Noel, Tristan has a well deserved reputation as being a smart and talented center who can protect the rim and defend on the perimeter.

The big issue with Thompson is cost as he’s coming off an $18.5 million contract with Cleveland that many considered to be an overpayment and blame on LeBron James who lobbied heavily for the Cavaliers to sign him. Tristan also started shooting 3-point shots last season, taking 23 threes in 57 games and hitting 9 of them for 39.0%. Thompson merits consideration because of LeBron but only if he were willing to sign a minimum contract.

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The Lakers single-handedly restored the center position and going big as a viable option last season and have an opportunity to continue the evolution by rebuilding their center rotation to embrace the modern analytics game. Small ball’s never really been about small being better than big. It’s about empowering players who had the offensive and defensive skills of guards and forwards along with the size and length to play and defend the five.

Replacing their two traditional low post centers with a modern offensive center who can stretch defenses and a modern defensive center who can guard all five positions could transform the Lakers into a juggernaut. Imagine how much better the Los Angeles Lakers would be if they replaced JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard with a center who can shoot the 3 like Aron Baynes and center who can defend 5 positions like Willie Cauley-Stein.

Kudos to the Los Angeles Lakers’ Rob Pelinka for pulling off a trade that not only gives the Lakers a needed third scorer and second playmaker in Dennis Schroder but also for not giving up his primary trading chip in Kyle Kuzma.

Getting Sam Presti to accept Danny Green and the 28th pick in the draft in exchange for Schroder means Pelinka still has enough ammunition left to pull off a second major trade to fill needs and upgrade the Lakers’ roster. Kuzma has starter quality talent and ambitions but plays the same positions as Lakers’ superstars James and Davis. Kyle will become a restricted free agent next offseason so it makes sense for the Lakers to trade him now.

The surprise is not that the Lakers traded for Schroder but that they did not have to give up Kuzma as part of the package. The expectation all along has been that any Lakers package had to include Kuzma, Green, and the pick. Since Kuzma will only make $3.5 million this season, the Lakers will need to include other contracts as salary filler to receive true value for him. That’s why everybody assumed he would be likely be traded with Green.

Without Danny Green’s $15.5 million contract, Rob Pelinka may only have JaVale McGee’s $4.2 million and Quinn Cook’s $3.0 million as salary filler since word is Avery Bradley is likely to exercise his $5.0 million player option. That means the Lakers would be limited to trading for a player or players whose combined salaries were less than 125% of the $10.7 million total salaries they were sending out plus $100,000, which equals $13.5 million.

There are several outstanding players who make less than $13.5 million per year who may be available in a trade for a talented young player with star potential like Kzma and would be perfect additions to the Lakers’ roster. How about trading Kuzma, McGee, and Cook for New Orleans shooting guard JJ Redick, who has 1 year left at $13.0 million, or Houston power forward Robert Covington, who has 2 years left and earns $12.9 million?

The Lakers could also utilize the $10.7 million Kuzma, McGee, and Cook package to pursue a sign-and-trade package for a coveted free agent who wanted more money than available for the $9.3 million non-taxpayer MLE. That might be the difference in convincing Serge Ibaka or Danilo Gallinari to sign with the Lakers and the Raptors or Thunder would be more than willing to agree to a sign-and-trade to acquire Kuzma without giving up anything.

There’s another scenario where a team offers Kentavious Caldwell-Pope a contract for more salary or years than the Lakers are willing to pay, in which case the Lakers could include a KCP sign-and-trade in the Kuzma package. For example, if a team were willing to offer KCP a 3-year contract starting at $15 million per year, the Lakers would be able to offer Kuzma, McGee, Cook, and KCP for a star player with an annual salary up to $32.2 million.

While I don’t think Kuzma, KCP, and filler is enough for the Lakers to land a legitimate star, it does give the Lakers a way to offer a player like Serge Ibaka or maybe Christian Wood a salary that’s greater than $13.5 million. Bottom line, the Lakers have a plethora of options to trade Kyle Kuzma to fill critical needs and Rob Pelinka is not done making deals to upgrade the roster. The trade for Dennis Schroder was just the first domino to fall.