Lakerholics

It’s a shame Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant will miss tonight’s matchup between the teams favored to meet in the NBA Finals but there’s clearly a sense of fairness and karma by having both teams missing a superstar.

But there’s more at stake tonight than just bragging rights between the Nets and Lakers. Tonight we get a first look at a possible answer to the question of whether a third superstar or deep and talented roster is more important. Granted, we’d get a truer answer were AD and KD both playing but tonight’s game still comes down to a contest between the Nets with two superstars and a weak roster vs. the Lakers with one superstar and deep roster.

The outcome of tonight’s game could even impact the decisions of the Lakers and Nets front offices before the trade deadline. The Lakers have long been scheming ways to add a third superstar to James and Davis. Tonight’s game could motivate them to chase a third superstar or stand pat. Meanwhile, the Nets will be looking for ways to bolster their shallow, weak bench after trading away their depth to add third superstar James Harden.

In the end, it’s unlikely the results of tonight’s game will change anything for either team as it’s simply another regular season game and neither team has the necessary trading chips to make dramatic changes to their rosters. The Lakers aren’t going to jettison their invaluable roster depth and talent for a third superstar and the both teams are going to be limited to shopping the buyout markets to upgrade their rosters at this point in time.

But that doesn’t mean tonight’s game is not going to give us a glimpse of how the Lakers and Nets matchup and a preview of the NBA Finals teams. The NBA is a superstar league and the Lakers and Nets are superstar teams. So who should be favored? That Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant are not playing should favor the Lakers as they have the deeper and more talented roster and expose the Nets who have the weaker and more flawed roster.

In addition to having the deeper and more talented bench, two other factors that should favor the Lakers are they are the top ranked defensive team in the league and also have the best superstar on the planet in LeBron James. Finally, while superstars dominate the NBA, championships are still won by teams and the Lakers at this point in time are clearly a ‘better’ team than the Nets, who are still trying to figure out how to play with each other.

Assuming their deeper and more talented roster can execute its ‘Next Man Up’ philosophy, the Lakers should be able to contain the Nets’ Harden and Irving like they consistently did to the Rockets’ Harden and Westbrook.

With superstar Anthony Davis tentatively sidelined for at least 2 to 3 weeks, the big question facing the Los Angeles Lakers is can they win without AD? The answer could depend upon whom coach Frank Vogel decides to play.

The Lakers need to embrace “Next Man Up’ and come out and ready to play aggressively and with confidence. When they do that and are having fun, flying around on defense and running on offense, they can beat anybody. Winning games without Anthony Davis will require the Lakers to dominate the 36 minutes during the game LeBron James plays and find a way to hold court and stay even during the 12 minutes per game he will need to rest.

The good news is the Lakers have one of the deepest and most talented rosters in the NBA. While they’ve struggled with rim protection and 3-point shooting, they still have the top rated defense in the league to rely upon. While the Lakers will surely miss Anthony Davis over the next 11 games, they’ve won 4 of the 5 games he’s already missed and 3 of their 5 top ranked lineups and 6 of the 11 that had positive net ratings were without AD.

Coach Vogel needs to tap into the Lakers’ lineups with the best records and play the combinations that have been the key to the team having fun and winning all season long. The time for experimenting must now be over.

So let’s first take a look at the stats for the successful 5-player lineups with LeBron James without Anthony Davis that Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel should be prioritizing for the next 11 games based on past performance:

An analysis of these lineups shows James appears 6 times, Harrell 4 times, Morris 4 times, Caruso 3 times, Matthews 3 times, Kuzma 3 times, Schroder 2 times, Gasol 2 times, Horton-Tucker 2 times, and Caldwell-Pope 1 time. The good news is the number of times each player shows up matches well with what the eye test and recent performance tells us. The exception is Markieff Morris whose positional importance is clearly higher without AD.

Frank Vogel is not likely to make major changes to the starting lineup but Gasol, Morris, James, Matthews, and Schroder has been the best non-AD Lakers’ lineup and Matthews is clearly playing better than KCP right now. Considering how Kuzma has been shooting, rebounding, and defending, Gasol, Kuzma, James, Matthews, and Schroder would be a starting lineup with a good chance to get the Lakers off to good starts and winning ways.

Vogel said before Anthony Davis’ injury that he wasn’t going to change the starting lineup ‘anytime soon.’ AD’s injury changes everything. Kuzma is the logical starter to replace Davis and Matthews needs to take over for KCP.

Unfortunately, the Lakers had no positive lineups without one of James or Davis on the court, which means Frank Vogel’s big challenge will be what happens when James, who’s already playing too many minutes, rests.

Caruso, Harrell, Horton-Tucker, Morris, and Caldwell-Pope will be the Lakers’ reserves, even though they don’t make up a viable 5-player lineup. Instead, Vogel is going to have to combine them with two or three of the starters. We’ve already seen the trio of Caruso, Harrell, and Horton-Tucker have had great success. Frankly, I could even see Frank going with an 8-man rotation with Morris and Caldwell-Pope playing minimal minutes as needed.

Defensively, the Lakers are now going to have to go small, which means playing an aggressive trapping, hedging, and doubling style of defense designed to create chaos and turnovers to ignite fast breaks on offense. Transition is going to be critical as the last thing the Lakers want is to play half court basketball. They need to push the ball relentlessly, take wide open threes in transition, and not hesitate to attack the paint or crash the boards.

Hopefully, the injury to Anthony Davis will motivate and empower the team to come out focused and ready to play. That could be the silver lining that gets the team back to playing the kind of Lakers’ basketball we all love.

Lakers fans can be excused if their hearts were in their throats and minds filled with memories of the Warriors’ championship hopes collapsing as Kevin Durant hobbled off the floor after tearing his Achilles tendon.

Fortunately, it looks like the Lakers dodged a bullet as Anthony Davis’ injury was only a strained calf and not a dreaded torn Achilles. But the injury was still a harsh reminder how fragile championship hopes can be in this league. Missing AD for two or three weeks or more may also force the Lakers to take a second look at what their plans for the season had been before the injury. Here are four big questions the Lakers may suddenly be asking themselves:

1. HOW CONSERVATIVE SHOULD LAKERS BE WITH AD?

This is the easy question to answer. The Lakers are going to be very careful to allow Anthony Davis however long he needs to be 100% healed before returning to action. They’re clearly going to error on the conservative side.

Only 27-years old, the Lakers are not going to risk the future of their young superstar. Anthony will come back only when he’s completely healed and can safely play without worrying about re-injuring the calf or his Achilles.

While he’s not expected to return until after the All-Star break, which means he will miss the next 11 games, the Lakers will not hesitate to hold him out longer if necessary to ensure he will be healthy for the playoffs.

2. SHOULD THE LAKERS RETHINK AD’S ROLE ON THE TEAM?

With the short offseason and the compressed schedule, the Lakers had already dramatically changed Anthony Davis’ role this season, playing him at center just 9% of the time compared to 26% of the time last season.

Part of the reason for the change was to limit the rougher physical play he would face playing more minutes at center but part was strategic to deploy Davis’ defensive talents more often against perimeter players.

Since the issues with his calf have been something Anthony has been struggling with and affected his play all season long, expect the Lakers to continue to the strategy of playing him more at the four than the five.

3. DOES THE INJURY HURT THE LAKERS CHANCE TO REPEAT?

Anthony Davis’ injury definitely raises doubts and may reduce the Lakers’ chances of repeating as NBA champions. While he has played well, AD has not played offensively or defensively at the level he played last season.

Assuming he misses two to four weeks, the Lakers are likely to struggle to play at the same level they’ve played this season. While they’ve continued to win most of their games, they haven’t dominated like earlier in the season.

With Utah leading the West and the Clippers right behind them, the Lakers may find themselves having to play their crosstown rivals just to reach the Western Conference Finals and then maybe the Brooklyn Nets in the Finals.

4. DO THE LAKERS NEED TO TRADE FOR ANOTHER BIG?

The Lakers already allow miss the elite rim protection they received last season from their tandem of centers JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard and have allowed the 5th most points in the paint of any team in the league.

With AD now out for 2 to 4 weeks, the Lakers lack of size become even a bigger issue. With few quality bigs available as free agents and only two centers on the roster, the Lakers may be forced to make a trade.

Ideally, the Lakers would like to add a longtime solution at center who can help their perimeter defense as well as protecting the rim. The big question is who is available and how much will it cost the Lakers to trade for him.

Despite having the second best record and top rated defense in the league, there are obvious chinks in the Los Angeles Lakers’ armor that threaten to derail their quest to repeat and win their league-best 18th championship.

Anybody watching the Lakers this season understands the team has serious problems protecting the rim, shooting threes, and scoring in the half court, especially when neither LeBron James or Anthony Davis are on the court. That’s not to malign how the additions of Gasol and Harrell have helped the Lakers offensively. Marc’s elite passing and 3-point shooting threat and Trezz’s low post scoring and energy have clearly been pluses offensively.

But the Lakers’ centers aren’t going to suddenly start protecting the rim, nor will their shooters consistently start raining threes, or a legitimate third star magically emerge to help LeBron James and Anthony Davis carry the load. That means the only realistic way for the Lakers to address these serious issues and bolster their championship chances is to make trades to fix the weaknesses and upgrade their roster before the March 25 trade deadline.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the options the Lakers have to improve their rim protection, enhance their 3-point shooting, and find a third star to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis via a midseason trade.

1. THE LAKERS NEED BETTER RIM PROTECTION

While the Lakers still have the top defense in the league and are second in blocked shots, the eye test and other stats clearly show they miss the rim protection provided last season by JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard.

The Lakers moved on from McGee and Howard when they changed their defensive philosophy in last year’s playoffs by having their centers trap, hedge, and double the ball off screens rather than playing drop coverage. Unfortunately, replacing McGee and Howard with Gasol and Harrell has both hurt the Lakers rim protection and failed to improve their perimeter defense. What the Lakers need is a modern center who can do both.

That means the Lakers should be looking for versatile centers who can defend inside and outside, which eliminates lumbering low post bigs like Drummond or Whiteside and favors mobile bigs like Noel or Cauley-Stein. The dream targets are modern centers with size and mobility like Myles Turner, Chris Boucher, and Christian Wood but the Lakers shouldn’t ignore dynamic athletic small ball centers like Julius Randle and John Collins.

While the Lakers would like to make a move, they don’t need to since they already have the best modern center in the NBA in Anthony Davis. But adding a versatile defensive center like Noel or WCS could be a smart move.

2. THE LAKERS NEED BETTER 3-POINT SHOOTING

After shooting a sizzling 39.8% and ranking 3rd in the league through the first 13 games of the season, the Lakers 3-point shooting reverted to the mean and fell to just 33.3% and 29th in the league over the last 14 games.

Despite the 3-point shooting slump, the Lakers have been able to continue to win at the same rate over the last 14 games as in the first 13 games though their margin of victory dropped dramatically from 10.8 to 5.5 points. The Lakers’ poor 3-point shooting reached rock bottom the last 3 games as they failed to shoot 30%, having to go into overtime twice and come from more than 20 points behind twice just to squeak out close wins at home.

While they’re the 14th most accurate 3-point shooting team in the league at 36.4%, the Lakers struggle to create spacing on offense because their 11.0 made threes and 30.3 taken threes per game are the 4th lowest in the NBA. The formula for winning with LeBron James has always been to surround him with elite prolific 3-point shooters. Right now, the Lakers roster simple does not have enough high percentage or high volume 3-point shooters.

Current Laker players struggling with their threes who are possible trading chips include Gasol, Morris, Schroder, Horton-Tucker, and Caldwell-Pope, who has been in dismal shooting slump after a stellar start to the season. Potentially available 3-point shooting upgrades the Lakers might target include guards Lowry, Ellington, LaVine, Bledsoe, Powell, and Mills, forwards Markkanen and Randle, and centers Boucher and Vucevic.

Like centers who can defend in the post and perimeter, there just aren’t any elite shooters who are good defenders sitting around waiting to be signed. That means the Lakers will need to trade to upgrade their 3-point shooting.

3. THE LAKERS NEED A LEGITIMATE THIRD STAR

The emergence of the Brooklyn Nets’ Superstar Big Three of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving as the Lakers possible NBA Finals foe may force the Lakers to consider making a blockbuster trade for a third star.

There’s a good case to be made that two megastars like LeBron James and Anthony Davis, arguably the best two players in the league, and a deep and talented roster can still beat a team with three superstars and a weak roster. That’s certainly true if you believe defense wins championships since the Lakers have the top rated defense while the Nets’ defense has major holes. But the offensive firepower of the Nets does present a daunting challenge.

That’s why the Lakers would be wise to adjust their midseason trade plans to upgrade their rim protection and 3-point shooting to include a legitimate third star to improve their lineups when LeBron or AD aren’t on the floor. We saw during the recent two game stretch without AD that the Lakers were fortunate to win in overtime against the OKC Thunder how the defending champs can still struggle when either James or Davis are not playing.

The Lakers don’t want to face a Nets team where they face a 3 to 2 or 2 to 1 superstar disadvantage all game long. They don’t necessarily need a third superstar but clearly need a legitimate All-Star to help LeBron and AD. Possible candidates include Bradley Beal, Zach LaVine, Victor Oladipo, Kyle Lowry, and Eric Bledsoe. Other outside-the-box candidates could include Ben Simmons, Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier, or Draymond Green.

Since they don’t have first round draft picks as chips, trading for any of the star players listed above is going to require the Lakers to give up valuable players to land the needed third star to improve their chances of repeating.

The Lakers don’t need a trade to repeat as champs but the chance to make a mega trade for All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry, modern young center Chris Boucher, and young shooting guard Terrence Davis is too good to pass up.

Here are the details of the proposed trade. The los Angeles Lakers receive Kyle Lowry, Chris Boucher, and Terrence Davis. The Toronto Raptors receive Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell.

While giving up three proven young stars like Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell is an expensive price to pay, landing Lowry, Boucher, and Davis could fill three major holes in the Lakers’ roster. The Lakers need a third superstar to reduce reliance on LeBron James and Anthony Davis, proven shooters willing to take and make more threes, and better rim protection and 3-point shooting from the center position.

This trade would give the Lakers a highly coveted third superstar in Lowry, three accurate and prolific 3-point shooters in Lowry, Davis, and Boucher, and a modern young center in Boucher who can rain threes and block shots. With the Clippers, Nets, 76ers, Jazz, Bucks, and other competitors looking for ways to improve their rosters at the trade deadline, this is a dream trade opportunity the Lakers should jump upon immediately if available.

Few trades are wins for both teams but this could be the exception as the win-now Lakers get the third superstar, shot blocking, and 3-point shooting they need while the rebuilding Raptors land three promising young stars.

1. LONG NEEDED THIRD SUPERSTAR

Kyle Lowry is a perfect fit as the third superstar to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The 34-year old,16-year veteran All-Star guard is the playmaking, elite 3-point shooting point guard the Lakers need.

The 6′ 0,” 196 lb Lowry would be a major upgrade over Schroder at both ends of the court. He’s averaging 17.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 6.6 assists on 34.7 minutes per game while boasting 3-year best 43.3 /38.2/87.3% shooting. Meanwhile, Dennis is averaging 14.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists in 31.5 minutes per game, shooting 44.1/31.0/82.5%. He’s special but not the proven playoff tested 3-point shooter and defender Lowry is.

Lowry’s championship resume and playoff experience, gravity as a prolific and accurate 3-point shooter, and across-the-board superiority are exactly what the Lakers need as a third superstar to optimize LeBron and AD.

2. MORE 3-POINT ATTEMPTS AND MAKES

The additions of Lowry (38.2% on 7.5 threes per game), Davis (40.3% on 3.5 threes per game), and Boucher (43.8% on 3.6 threes per game) will go a long way towards improving the Lakers’ weak 3-point shooting performance.

Right now, the Lakers rank 26th in 3-point attempts at 30.3 per game and 13th in shooting percentage at 37.1%. Lowry, Davis, and Boucher took 14.6 threes per game compared to just 6.9 threes for Schroder, KCP, and Harrell. Taking 7.7 more threes per game would elevate the Lakers attempts to 38.0 per game, jump them to 7th in the league, and create needed spacing for LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the other teammates to attack the rim.

The biggest weakness of the Lakers 9th ranked offense is 3-point shooting. Swapping Lowry, Davis, and Boucher for Schroder, KCP, and Harrell could give the Lakers a top rated offense to go with their top rated defense.

3. RIM PROTECTION AND SPACING AT CENTER

Chris Boucher is exactly what the Lakers need to fix their center problems. He’s the perfect modern center who can stretch the floor to create spacing on offense and protect the rim and defend on the perimeter on defense.

The 28-year old, 6′ 9,” 200 lb Boucher is averaging a career best 13.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks in 23.2 minutes per game. He’s the perfect center to backup Marc Gasol and eventually take over as the Lakers’ starter. While he’s only played 116 games in his career, Chris is enjoying a breakout year with the Raptors, shooting a red hot 43.8% from deep on 3.6 threes per game, which is a monster jump from the 32% he shot before this season.

A bouncy athletic jumper, the untested Boucher is a totally different kind of small ball center than the proven Harrell but his ability to protect the rim and shoot the three ball make him a better center prospect for the Lakers.

Trading Schroder, Harrell, and Caldwell-Pope would be a dramatic move for the Lakers but worth it to acquire a third superstar in Lowry, three great shooters in Lowry, Boucher, and Davis, and a modern center in Boucher.

With a starting lineup of Lowry, Matthews, James, A. Davis, and Gasol and a deep bench of Horton-Tucker, Caruso, T. Davis, Kuzma, and Boucher, the Lakers would be heavy favorites to repeat as 2020–21 NBA champions. Meanwhile, the Raptors add a lightning quick point guard in Schroder to replace Lowry, a dynamic young center in Harrell to replace Boucher, and a proven shooting guard in KCP to upgrade Davis off the bench.

While the Raptors revitalize their team with proven young talent, the Lakers get what they need to optimize LeBron’s championship window and repeat this season as NBA champs and possibly threepeat next season.