Lakerholics

After finally getting everybody back from Health and Safety protocols, here’s how the Los Angeles Lakers can escape the early season chaos caused by injuries and Covid-19 and regroup to win their 18th NBA championship.

Having played 38 games or 46% of the season, the Lakers currently have a 19–19 record with at least another critical 13 games remaining through the end of January before superstar Anthony Davis is likely to return. The 7th place Lakers need to band together and win as many of the games while AD is out as possible. Right now, the Lakers are only a game out of 5th place, which should be their goal over the next 13 games left in January.

Besides waiting for AD, the Lakers are also waiting for January 15th, which is when Horton-Tucker and his $9.5 million contract can be traded. THT plus Nunn and his $5 million contract are the Lakers’ primary trading chips. Assuming AD returns at the end of January and the Lakers make whatever trades they’re going to make, the team will then have 31 games remaining to finalize their lineups and rotations and peak in time for the playoffs.

The challenge facing the Lakers to win the championship can be broken into three steps: win while Anthony Davis is out of the lineup, make a big trade for a key new starter, and peak once Anthony Davis returns from injury.

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1. Win While Anthony Davis is Out of the Lineup

With everybody back from Health and Safety protocols, the Lakers hope to turn their modest 2-game winning streak into a 7-game winning streak and to finish January 2022 strong by winning 10 of their 13 remaining games.

Finishing 10–3 without AD would give the Lakers a 29–22 record at the start of February and a good opportunity to take over possession of 5th place in the Western Conference standings, passing injured Clippers and Nuggets. The first five games the Lakers play should all be winnable but five of the remaining eight games will be against teams with winning records. Here’s the remaining 13 games on the Lakers schedule for the month of January:

Winning 10 of the 13 games left in January will depend on how well the Lakers are able play without Anthony Davis and with LeBron James playing the five and whether they can hold their own on the glass and in the paint. The Lakers’ schedule next five games gives them an opportunity to log some easy wins and start to create some separation from the teams destined to compete for a spot in the play-in tournament when the playoffs begin.

Finally with a full roster, the Lakers have no more room for excuses or losses. Step 1 to escape the early season chaos and win a championship is for the Los Angeles Lakers to win 75% or 10 of the 13 games left in January.

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2. Make a Big Trade for Key New Starter

While the Lakers committed to small ball with AD and LeBron as their starting and backup centers, poor roster construction and untimely injuries have left their small ball lineups greatly lacking both in size and defense.

The Lakers have two different solutions to acquire the size and defense they need. The first option is to trade for a modern center like Myles Turner or Christian Wood who can both protect the rim and shoot the three. Trading for Turner or Wood would enable Frank Vogel to play his preferred two big lineups, Anthony Davis to play his preferred power forward position, and the Lakers to have the versatility to play either big or small.

The other option the Lakers are considering is trading for an elite power forward like Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes, or Cam Reddish to give their small ball lineups with LeBron and AD more size, defense, and shooting. Like with Turner or Wood, Grant, Barnes, and Reddish will be in demand by other teams so the Lakers will need to aggressively look for a trading partner who values the young trading chips they have in Horton-Tucker and Nunn.

Other than trading Westbrook, which the Lakers are willing to do to acquire Ben Simmons, the Lakers would be lucky to be able to trade for Myles Turner, Christian Wood, Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes, or Cam Reddish.

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3. Peak Once Anthony Davis Returns from Injury

Assuming the Lakers make a trade for size and defense and get a motivated, healthy, and rested Anthony Davis back around February 1st, Los Angeles will have 31 games remaining to get into rhythm and peak as a team.

While the Lakers are unlikely to win enough games to get one of the top three seeds, they should be able to position themselves as one of the top four seeds in the West, setting themselves up for viable path to the title. Winning 22 of their remaining 31 games of the season would leave them with a 51–31 record for the 2021–22 regular season, which should be good enough for at least 4th seed in the west behind the Warriors, Suns, and Jazz.

The Lakers road to the NBA championship this year projects to be more of the same crazy roller coaster ride that injuries and Covid have transformed the 2021–22 season into. It will be our third straight Covid colored season. The Lakers were lucky to get an chance to win a championship in the bubble in Covid’s first crazy season. They will have to be just as lucky to come out of nowhere to win another championship in Covid’s third season.

Essentially, the Los Angeles Lakers must win 75% or three out of every four games over the 44 games left in this regular season in order to escape the early chaos and rally to win their 18th NBA championship this season.

While the Los Angele Lakers may have to rely on going small with LeBron James at the five to survive the six weeks until Anthony Davis returns, there’s a compelling case for keeping the King at the five even after AD returns.

With Davis likely out until February, the Lakers are poised to commit to starting LeBron James at center until AD returns. They’ve already moved DeAndre Jordan out of the rotation and Dwight Howard should be next. Unless the Lakers make a sudden surprise move to add another center, you can expect a heavy dose of small ball with LeBron James starting at the five. That’s the only way the Lakers are going to survive until AD gets back.

So far this season, LeBron at the five has been one of the Lakers’ best lineups, posting an impressive 13.5 offensive rating (2nd best in NBA) and 106.0 defensive rating (5th best in NBA) for a +7.5 net rating (3rd best in NBA). Considering most of those stats were compiled with Jordan or Howard as a second big, the LeBron at the five metrics going forward with Anthony Davis playing his preferred power forward position should be even better.

Because of his low center of gravity, physical strength, and veteran savvy, James is a better on-ball low-post defender than Anthony Davis, who excels as an off-the-ball help shot blocker who can roam like a football free safety. Throw in James’ unrivaled playmaking and bully ball invulnerability and you start to see how having him play the five and AD the four could be the better long-term solution rather than him at the four and Davis at the five.

Playing LeBron instead of AD at the five changes everything. The Lakers get bigger, badder, and better with LeBron at center. Frank gets his two bigs, AD gets his preferred power forward, and LeBron becomes a small ball five.

Since wining the championship in the bubble, the Los Angeles Lakers have had an identity problem. They’ve sacrificed their league leading defense in an unsuccessful attempt to upgrade the roster on the offensive side.

Defense was the Lakers’ calling card when they won the championship fifteen months ago but roster imbalances, untimely injuries, and losses from H&S Protocols dropped them from 1st to 12th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, despite major offseason offensive upgrades made to their roster, the Lakers’ offensive rating dropped from 24th last season to 27th this season and their net rating from 8th last season to 23rd this season.

The Lakers’ defense will improve considerably once Anthony Davis and Kendrick Nunn return from injuries and Trevor Ariza, Austin Reaves, Kent Bazemore, and Rajon Rondo return from Health and Safety protocols. However, even then, the Lakers defense will lack a shut-down perimeter defender to slow down opposing point guards, an elite shot blocker and rim protector to control the paint, and a bigger 3&D wing to guard top scorers.

The big question facing the Lakers as the 2021–22 NBA season approaches the February 10th trade deadline, is what kind of team do they want to be? The offensive upgrades have not paid off while the defense has declined. The question is whether the Lakers should double down on becoming a more balanced team on both ends or return to and re-embrace the strong defensive roots that won helped them win their last championship.

The answer to the Lakers’ dilemma seems obvious. The Lakers won an NBA championship fifteen months ago by focusing on defense. Here is how the Lakers could return to their defensive roots and win another championship.

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1. Trade for Elite Perimeter Defender and Elite Rim Protector

To return as the NBA’s top defensive team, the Los Angeles Lakers need to pull off mega trades for an elite perimeter defender like Sixers’ point guard Ben Simmons and an elite rim protector like Pacers’ center Myles Turner.

There is no question Ben Simmons is one of the Lakers’ primary midseason trade targets with Lakers VP of Basketball Operations Rob Pelinka and Klutch Sports President Rich Paul looking to swap Westbrook for Simmons. Klutch has put the league on notice that any team wanting to trade for Ben will have to beat the Lakers offer of Russell Westbrook. While Daryl Morey is reluctant to trade Simmons for Westbrook, he’s unlikely get a better offer.

The Sixers will resist as long as they can but will ultimately agree to trade Simmons and Niang straight up for Westbrook as it will be the best option to allow Philadelphia to salvage their season and compete for a championship. Meanwhile, Simmons will bring his All-NBA defense to the Lakers to give them the elite defender with the defensive size and skillset to shut down the opposing point guards who have turned Westbrook into a turnstile.

Myles Turner, who led the league in blocks last season and is second this season, is the other defensive difference-maker the Lakers need to trade for. Turner is the elite rim protector and stretch five center the Lakers need. Importantly, Turner will allow coach Frank Vogel to play his preferred two bigs, let Anthony Davis play his preferred power forward position, and let LeBron James play his preferred small forward position going forward.

While Turner can’t defend all five positions like James, Davis, and Simmons, he does give the Lakers their first modern center who is capable of both shooting the three and protecting the rim since they signed LeBron James. Trading for Myles Turner will likely cost the Lakers their best two trading chips: 21-year old shooting guard and future star Talen Horton-Tucker and 26-year old shooting guard and versatile backcourt player Kendrick Nunn.

The net effect of bringing in an elite perimeter defender like Simmons and elite rim protector like Turner would be to transform the Lakers into a defensive juggernaut with the size and versatility to win a championship.

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2. Trade for Elite 3&D Wing and Young Athletic Backup Center

The Lakers need a bigger (6′ 6″ to 6′ 10″) 3&D wing who can shoot the three and defend the bigger wing scorers in the league and a younger backup center to reduce the wear-and-tear from LeBron and AD playing the five.

Georges Niang is a 28-year old, 6′ 7″, 230 lb, 6-year veteran small forward whom the Sixers would include in a Russ for Ben trade to match salaries. Georges only earns $3.3 million per year but is a perfect fit for the Lakers. This season, he is averaging 10.4/2.5/1.5 per game on 44.1/38.0/87.1% shooting splits and has the third best net rating on the Sixers behind Danny Green and Joel Embiid. Last year, he had 3rd best net rating on Utah Jazz.

Niang gives the Lakers the quality bigger 3&D wing they desperately need to backup LeBron James at small forward, especially since LeBron will also be playing minutes at the five. Niang is also a 40% career 3-point shooter. Georges will be the bonus from the Westbrook/Simmons trade in that he will give the Lakers the legitimate 3&D wing to guard big time scoring wings like Kawhi Leonard, DeMar DeRozan, Paul George, and Kevin Durant.

Damian Jones is a player the Lakers regret losing. He was another victim of the Andre Drummond disaster and the Lakers’ unsuccessful strategy of pairing LeBron and AD with rotating rent-a-centers the last three years. Jones will give the Lakers the ability play big when Turner is not in the game and provide insurance against foul trouble or injury without having to rely on 35-year old Dwight Howard. Jones gives the Lakers center deprth.

The Lakers need to get better defensively if they want to win their 18th NBA championship. Young veterans like Niang and Jones and young stars like Simmons and Turner are exactly what how the Lakers rebuild their defense.

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3. Lakers Will Become Bigger, Younger, and Better Defensively

Imagine a lineup with three top-ten lock down defenders like LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Ben Simmons, three All-NBA individual defenders who are capable of defending all five positions at all three levels of the court.

Then imagine adding one of the league’s top young shot blockers and stretch centers in Myles Turner plus a 6′ 7″ legitimate 3-point shooting wing defender in Georges Niang and an athletic young center in Damian Jones. Adding four plus defenders like Simmons, Turner, Niang, and Jones to James, Davis, Ariza, Reaves, Bradley, and Johnson will change the direction of the Lakers roster to be defense first. Here’s the roster with new players:

PG: SIMMONS, Reaves, Rondo
SG: Monk, Bradley, Ellington
SF: James, NIANG, Johnson
PF: Davis, Anthony, Ariza
CE: TURNER, JONES, Howard

The Lakers replaced Westbrook and THT in the starting lineup with Simmons and Turner, massive upgrades defensively. They also replaced two of the five primary backups with new players who are plus defenders. The result is a balanced 15-man Lakers’ roster where two of the three players at each of the five positions are plus defenders. It’s a winning blueprint for transforming the Lakers into a championship defensive juggernaut.

All the angst and uncertainties about building a starting lineup that can both score and defend will become moot because the various pieces of the puzzle will finally fit. Let’s hope the Lakers will do something like this.

When you’re the Los Angeles Lakers, life comes at you fast. Little more than 14 months after winning their 17th title, the purple and gold find themselves facing three monumental franchise-defining personnel decisions.

The 16–16 Lakers are now 32 games into the 2021–22 NBA season with four players out due to H&S protocols and three more due to injury, including superstar center Anthony Davis, who’s slated to miss 20 to 30 games. Suddenly, in addition to trying to tread water until Nunn and now Davis get healthy, the Lakers find themselves having to rethink the role and viability of their superstar big three and their grand plan for the future.

This season is starting to eerily resemble the Lakers’ last season when injuries to LeBron James and Anthony Davis undermined the team’s quest to repeat and ended in a whimper via a first round exit courtesy of the Phoenix Suns. Just 14 months after winning their 18th NBA championship, the Lakers thought they were on the verge of a dynasty but now find themselves faced with three explosive personnel decisions that could determine their future.

Should the Lakers trade or keep Russell Westbrook? Can they count on Anthony Davis to be durable or impactful enough to take the baton from LeBron? And how long can LeBron James continue to play at this level?

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1. Should the Lakers Trade or Keep Russell Westbrook?

Despite Westbrook playing well and being what they hoped for when they traded for him, the Lakers are already exploring whether he might be the missing piece in a trade to improve their roster and championship hopes.

Once the trade door is opened, it’s hard to close. The Lakers also have not seen how their team would look with a healthy Trevor Ariza and Kendrick Nunn. Unfortunately, Anthony Davis’ injury may now make that moot. Packaging Westbrook with budding young talent like Horton-Tucker and Nunn could give the Lakers the trading chips to bring back players with the size and defense at the wing and in the front court to fix their roster.

What it will come down to is whether the Lakers will be able to trade THT and Nunn for the bigger 3&D wing player (Jerami Grant) or modern stretch five center (Myles Turner) to let Davis to play his preferred power forward? That would be the ideal solution but the Lakers will probably have to expand the trade to include Russ, multiple players on both sides, and even another team. Their championship hopes will depend on what Pelinka is able to do.

Finding a trading partner to take on the final year of Russ’ contract would probably be a doable option this summer. Finding a team to take on two years and $91 million midseason will be more challenging but possible.

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2. Can the Lakers Count on AD to Take the Baton from LeBron?

After a scintillating performance and winning a championship in the bubble, 28-year old Anthony Davis was projected by everybody to be on the verge of replacing LeBron James as the best player on the planet and the Lakers.

Unfortunately, major injuries have not only derailed Davis ascension to the crown but also raised concerns whether Anthony has the alpha mentality and physical durability to take the baton from LeBron and lead the Lakers. Injuries to LeBron and AD were probably a big part of the reason why the Lakers ultimately chose to trade for a third superstar in Russell Westbrook. A third superstar is the best insurance of losing a superstar to injury.

Right now, the Lakers are both worried about Davis being injury prone and concerned whether he will be capable of being the team’s alpha player. For whatever reason, AD has clearly not been the same player since the bubble. While the Lakers still consider Anthony Davis to be untouchable, they’re also having second thoughts about whether Davis’ struggles could be related to playing so many minutes at the five when he prefers playing the four.

The Los Angeles Lakers aren’t concerned Anthony Davis won’t be able to take the baton from LeBron James. They’re just trying to decide whether AD’s future as a Laker is playing small ball center or playing power forward.

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3. How Long Can LeBron Continue to Play at an Elite Level?

How long can LeBron James continue to be the King and a top-five player on the planet and how best to optimize his championship window will be key factors in any moves the Lakers make before the trade deadline.

Rob Pelinka has already confirmed the Lakers traded for Russell Westbrook to reduce the workload on LeBron James. Sources also confirmed the Lakers are interested in trading Westbrook for Sixers’ point guard Ben Simmons. Rich Paul, the agent for James, Davis, and Simmons, just confirmed to Shams Charania that the two players the Lakers are targeting for this midseason trades are in fact the Sixers’ Ben Simmons and the Pistons’ Jerami Grant.

What Klutch Sports’ president Rich Paul did was announce to the basketball world that the any NBA team that wants to trade for Ben Simmons will have to come up with a better offer than Lakers superstar Russell Westbrook. Trading Westbrook for Simmons would be a genius move if Pelinka can pull it off. Because of the Lakers’ relationship with Klutch and Ben’s relationship with LeBron and AD, L.A. may be the only team who could trade for Russ.

The Lakers believe LeBron James can play until he is 40-years old. He will turn 37 on December 30th and will be 38 when his contract expires in June 2023. The Lakers will likely sign LeBron to a final extension this summer.

Once the door to a Russell Westbrook trade has been opened, it’s hard to close, especially with LeBron turning 37 end of this month. While Russ has been playing well, the Lakers would be negligent not to look at all options.

The question with Russ has never been about his talent but his fit on a Lakers team that needs to surround LeBron and AD with shooters. As expected, Russ has slowly and surely started to find his way and play well. The Lakers’ problem is they don’t have the trading chips to fix their current roster imbalance and acquire impactful talent with the size and defensive chops they need to become legitimate championship contenders.

The Lakers’ problems are two-fold. First, their only tradable assets who are not minimum salary or superstar players are Talen Horton-Tucker ($10 million for 3 years) and Kendrick Nunn ($5 million per year for 2 years). Second, their only other possible trading chip, since they’re not going to trade LeBron or AD, is Russell Westbrook, whose $91 million contract over the next two years makes finding willing trading partners a challenge.

The solution is to package 32-year old Russell Westbrook with 21-year old Talen Horton-Tucker, who’s shown the potential to become a dynamic two-way star, and Kendrick Nunn, another rising young star to sweeten the deal. Packaging Russ with THT and Nunn opens the door from both a talent and financial standpoint for the Lakers to make the kind of major upgrades to their starting lineup and rotations they could not have otherwise made.

Here are three blockbuster trades built around Russell Westbrook and THT that solve the Lakers’ roster imbalance and make them bigger and better defensively and offensively and a legitimate championship contender.

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1. Indiana Pacers: Myles Turner, Caris LeVert, and T.J. Warren

Myles Turner, Center: 12.9/7.4/1.0 on 51.3/36.4/74.7%
Caris LeVert, Shooting Guard: 16.3/2.7/3.3 on 44.0/29.8/80.4%
T.J. Warren, Small Forward: 19.8/4.2/1.5 on 53.6/40.3/81.9% (2019)

This trade tops the list of potential Lakers trades because it’s the perfect solution for what is a growing concern about Anthony Davis’ physical and mental ability to play center without more front court size and defense.

While the Pacers are rebuilding, they’re not going to completely tear it down so they need a combination of impact talent to help them compete at a higher level plus young players or picks to insure future growth. Russell Westbrook gives the Pacers the on-court catalyst to help ignite a fire and transform them into playoff team in the East with Talen Horton-Tucker and Kendrick Nunn filling in the roster as proven young talent with upside.

Myles Turner starting at center is the key for the Lakers as it allows Frank Vogel to play his preferred two-big lineups, Anthony Davis his preferred power forward, and LeBron James his preferred small forward position. The Lakers could also leave the trade open like the Wizards did with Westbrook and look to upgrade Warren and LeVert for a starting point guard. The key is acquiring Turner so AD only has to play the five part-time.

The Lakers could play LeBron at the one with Reaves at the two, Warren at the three, Davis at the four, and Turner at the Five. That’s a big lineup that can play small with five out sets or go big and play bully ball in the paint.

PG: LEBRON JAMES, Rajon Rondo, Isaiah Thomas
SG: AUSTIN REAVES, Malik Monk, Wayne Ellington
SF: T.J.WARREN, Caris LeVert, Kent Bazemore
PF: ANTHONY DAVIS, Carmelo Anthony, Trevor Ariza
CE: MYLES TURNER, Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan

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2. Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons, Danny Green, and Furkan Korkmaz

Ben Simmons, Point Guard: 14.3/7.2/6.9 on 55.7/30.0/61.3% (2020)
Danny Green, Shooting Guard: 7.0/2.7/1.2 on 41.5/38.3/100.0%
Furkan Korkmaz, Shooting Guard: 8.4/2.9/2.4 on 37.4/29.5/82.1%

While Russell Westbrook is not on the Sixers’ list of 30 players for whom they’re willing to trade Ben Simmons, the Lakers should be patient because it’s unlikely any team is going to offer more than Russ for Ben.

The 76ers are in a tough situation, currently sitting in 9th place in the East and in the midst of a 3-game losing streak. They desperately need to make a move to trade Ben for a point guard who can lead them to the playoffs. Westbrook is the best point guard the Sixers are going to be able to trade for and Daryl Morey will eventually realize that and make the necessary move to trade Ben Simmons for the best they can get to save their season.

For the Lakers, swapping Russell Westbrook for Ben Simmons gives them the size and defense they need to be a legitimate championship contenders and a rare third All-NBA defender who can guard all five positions. Ultimately, the Lakers could move Simmons from point guard to power forward or small ball center, a position that would optimize Ben’s great defensive ability and allow him to play point center ala Nikola Jokic.

The Lakers could play Ben at the one with Reaves at the two, Green at the three, LeBron at the four, and Davis at the Five. That too is a big lineup that can play small with five out sets or go big and play bully ball in the paint.

PG: BEN SIMMONS, Rajon Rondo, Isaiah Thomas
SG: AUSTIN REAVES, Malik Monk, Wayne Ellington
SF: DANNY GREEN, Furkan Korkmaz, Kent Bazemore,
PF: LEBRON JAMES, Carmelo Anthony, Trevor Ariza
CE: ANTHONY DAVIS, Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan

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3. Boston Celtics: Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Josh Richardson

Jaylen Brown, Shooting Guard: 21.1/5.4/2.4 on 46.6/38.4/75.4%
Marcus Smart, Shooting Guard: 11.0/4.0/5.6 on 38.3/27.6/76.4%
Josh Richardson, Shooting Guard: 9.9/2.8/1.2 on 46.0/37.5/81.6%

The Boston Celtics are another team struggling against expectations this season and desperately looking for a point guard who can run the offense. Russell Westbrook would be a major upgrade over Marcus Smart.

The Celtics are currently sitting in 8th place in the East with a 15–15 record. There have been conflicts and squabbles between Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and Jason Tatum over sharing the ball and shooting too much. With a new GM and head coach, Boston needs a major move to resurrect their season and trading Brown, Smart, and Richardson for Westbrook, Horton-Tucker, and Nunn is the bold move they need to get back on track.

For the Lakers, Jaylen Brown is the perfect third superstar to replace Russell Westbrook. Brown is a 20-points per game scorer who shoots 38.4% on 7 threes per game. At 6′ 6,” 223 lbs, Brown’s a perfect fit at the three. Smart would be an ideal point guard and huge upgrade defensively for the Lakers. While he’s a streaky and sometimes unreliable 3-point shooter like Westbrook, Smart’s All-NBA defense is a perfect fit on the Lakers.

The Lakers could play Smart at the one with Reaves at the two, Brown at the three, LeBron at the four, and Davis at the Five. Another big lineup with the versatility to play small ball or go big with bully ball in the paint.

PG: MARCUS SMART, Rajon Rondo, Isaiah Thomas
SG: AUSTIN REAVES, Malik Monk, Wayne Ellington
SF: JAYLEN BROWN, Josh Richardson, Kent Bazemore,
PF: LEBRON JAMES, Carmelo Anthony, Trevor Ariza
CE: ANTHONY DAVIS, Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan