Lakerholics

Lakers Split Picks Between This Season & Next Summer

In their first big decision since buying the team, the Mark Walter Lakers must decide whether to use their one first and one second round pick to better their odds to win a ring this season or save them for next summer.

The Lakers’ have two urgent roster needs. If they use their available first and second round picks to improve the team’s chances this season, they will still be able to offer two first round picks on draft day next summer. Frankly, the Lakers are unlikely to be competitive for any player whose price is going to require three or more draft picks but there are probably multiple scenarios where two picks will get a better player than one pick.

Since the Lakers immediate needs are for a starting 3&D small forward and backup shot-blocking center, they should utilize their first round pick for the starting wing and use their second round pick for the backup center.
That would fill their most urgent roster needs and leave them with two first round and one second round pick on draft day next summer plus up to $100 million in cap space to sign their own and other teams’ free agents.

While losing Austin Reaves was a tough blow for the player and team, hot having to start three offense first players suddenly clarifies a very difficult situation and could motivate the Lakers to go all-in to win a championship.
Suddenly, all the angst over whether the Big Three of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves could win a ring don’t matter and the only thing the Lakers have to do now is figure out how to win with what they have.

It’s sad but Reaves getting hurt has the Lakers headed in the right direction. Here are three moves the Lakers can make to win a championship this season and without compromising their grand plans for next summer.

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1. ANDREW WIGGINS TRADE

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The Lakers single biggest roster need for this season is to trade for an elite 3&D starting small forward like the Miami Heat’s Andrew Wiggins, who can stretch the floor with his made threes and lock down bigger wing scorers.

Wiggins would be a perfect fit as the starting small forward for the Lakers. Now 30-years old, Wiggins is still in the prime of his career, averaging 16.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in 32.4 minutes per game this season.
While the Lakers would prefer a younger, less expensive option, Wiggins is a proven elite point-of-attack defender averaging 1.1 blocks and 1.2 steals per game and shooting 40.7% from three on a solid 4.7 attempts per game.

Trading for Wiggins would cost the Lakers an unprotected 2031 first round pick plus matching salaries of Hachimura, Vincent, and Knecht. The trade would free up two more roster spots and $5.5 million under the first apron.
Until Austin Reaves returns, the Lakers’ starting lineup should have better balance with Luka Doncic at the one, Marcus Smart at the two, Andrew Wiggins at the three, LeBron James at the four, Deandre Ayton at the five.

Starting two elite point-of-attack defensive players like Andrew Wiggins and Marcus Smart would totally transform the Lakers from one of the worst to one of the best two-way starting lineups in the entire league.
The opportunity to test a Luka Doncic and Marcus Smart backcourt for next four to six weeks is one of the silver linings to Austin Reaves injury. Reaves could easily find himself coming off the bench when he returns.

Since Wiggins has a $30 million player option next season, the Lakers will need to sign him to an extension to make sure he will be under contract next summer. His contract could be critical if the Lakers pursue Giannis.

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2. ROBERT WILLIAMS TRADE

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The Lakers’ other major roster need is to trade for a quality backup center like the Trailblazers’ Robert Williams III who’s a talented but injury prone backup center who’s elite at defending in space and protecting the rim.

The defense-first Robert Williams would be the perfect complement to backup the offense-first Deandre Ayton, the Lakers’ starting center. There will be times when Williams could even close games when needed.
Williams is now healthy and has played in 20 of the 30 games the Blazers have played. So far this season, Robert’s averaging 6.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.4 blocks, and 0.6 steals in just 16.1 minutes per game.

Trading for Williams would cost the Lakers an unprotected 2032 second round pick plus matching salaries of Maxi Kleber and Jaxson Hayes. The trade would free up one roster spot and cost $1.2 million in cap space.
Since Williams is on an expiring contract, the Lakers will need to sign him to an extension to make sure he will be under contract next summer. Like with Wiggins, his contract could be critical if the Lakers pursue Giannis.

Having two elite defensive players who can come off the bench when needed like Jarred Vanderbilt and Robert Williams is important to building a legitimate championship roster full of high quality two-way players.
It gives coach Redick the roster versatility to better matchup against any type of problem an opponent throws at them. It’s a luxury that separates teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder from the rest of the NBA’s teams.

Because the Lakers sent out 5 players and close to $50 million in expiring salaries to trade for Wiggins and Williams, they will need to scramble in the emerging buyout market and their two-way players to fill roster spots.

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3. BUYOUT MARKET SIGNINGS

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While the Lakers don’t have any starter spots to offer candidates from the NBA buyout market, they do have some big backup minutes available at shooting guard behind Smart and at power forward behind LeBron James.

Besides playing time and a chance to play for a legendary franchise, the Lakers also have something no other contending team has, which is $97.6 million in expiring contracts to sign their and other teams’ free agents.
The beauty of free agency is that you don’t have to give up depth to match salaries or draft capital to sweeten the deal. It’s the smartest and quickest way to build a deep, diverse roster to compete with the Thunder and Spurs.

The two major buyout candidates the Lakers are interested in will be shooting guard Kelly Oubre, Jr. and power forward Kris Middleton. both of whom could be perfect backups for Marcus Smart and LeBron James.
Both are expected to be bought out for financial reasons and the Lakers should be a team both are interested in joining on a minimum contract in hopes of resurrecting their careers and winning a championship ring.

Oubre averaged 16.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 blocks, and 1.1 steals and shot 34.3% on 5.6 attempted threes in 34.8 minutes per game. Kelly Oubre Jr. would be great insurance for an injury prone Marcus Smart.
Middleton averaged 10.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.4 blocks, 0.8 steals and shot 32.7% on 2/5 attempted threes in 25 minutes per game. Kris Middleton would be solid insurance for an injury prone LeBron James.

I also included a buyout center Nick Richards, whom the Suns are likely to buyout, to use as a third center against bully ball bruiser type centers like Nikola Jokic, Walker Kessler, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Mitchell Robinson.

This Lakers season has been as chaotic as any in history. The highs and lows, dreams and nightmares, buzzer-beating wins and blow-out losses have been fast and furious. Suddenly, it’s now JJ and Rob in the hot seats.

Frankly, the last thing the Lakers should do now is panic and suddenly change their grand strategy because of three straight blow out losses that exposed the current starting lineup and rotation’s defense and chemistry. After all, the 19–10 Lakers still have the 4th best record in the West and the 6th best record in the entire league and their 10–0 record in ‘clutch’ games says something about their ability to exert their will and win close games.

What’s painfully obvious at this moment is that the Lakers’ young head coach JJ Redick is extremely angry and disappointed in how the team has played the last three games and appears to be ready to make big changes.
Complicating the situation is the bad news that the Lakers’ rising young superstar Austin Reaves will now be out for at least four weeks with a calf injury which the Lakers have no option but to be extremely careful about.

The Lakers’ grand plan has been to focus on rebuilding a championship roster around Luka Doncic next summer when they could have three first round picks to trade and $80 million in cap space to sign free agents.
There’s no question superstar injuries and LeBron working himself back into game shape derailed some of the early-team chemistry and late-game magic that Luka and Austin created that raised everybody’s expectations.

But that doesn’t mean nothing can be done. Let’s look specifically at what head coach JJ Redick could do right now to help the Lakers win games and what general manager Rob Pelinka could do to quickly improve the roster.

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What Can Head Coach JJ Redick Do Right Now?

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Lakers’ young head coach JJ Redick is obviously feeling the pressure as his defenseless Los Angeles Lakers not only suffered their third straight loss by blowout but also lost rising superstar Austin Reaves for at least four weeks.

There are definitely moves Redick can make with the players he currently has available that could improve the Lakers’ starting lineup’s defense and bench lineup’s offense and enable them to remain a top-six West team.
Unfortunately, unless the Lakers are willing to use their one available first round and second round pick, it will be almost impossible for them to find the elite starting 3&D wing and quality backup defensive center they need.

The silver lining of Reaves’ injury is it gives JJ an opportunity to give a Luka Doncic and Marcus Smart backcourt and a better balanced starting lineup featuring Doncic, Smart, Vanderbilt, James, and Ayton a chance to shine.
Replacing Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura with better defenders in Marcus Smart and Jarred Vanderbilt should greatly improve the starting lineup’s defense while Rui’s shooting should boost the bench’s offense.

The Lakers superstar-driven offense has also become too predictable and easy to defend with everybody standing around. The Lakers must embrace analytics and start running plays designed to get open threes and layups.
JJ needs to be careful as head coach not to lose this team, which really means not to lose Luka or LeBron. If there is one thing Redick needs to do to keep his job, it’s getting Luka and LeBron to buy in leading the defense.

The Lakers have an opportunity to see how a starting lineup of Doncic, Smart, Vanderbilt, James, and Ayton with backups of Smith jr., Vincent, Mañon, Hachimura, Hayes could fix some of the Lakers defensive issues.

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What Can General Manger Rob Pelinka Do Right Now?

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Rob Pelinka may have been a better fit as general manager of the smaller, less ambitious Buss family version of the Lakers than the larger analytics and data-driven sports business conglomerate Mark Walter is building.

In many ways, Rob’s a strange bird who through his relationship with Kobe was able to win over Jeanie. I just don’t see him happy going forward with a lessor role in a much bigger and more sophisticated Lakers’ front office. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rob were to resign as Lakers’ general manager. There’s no question Jeanie made sure he had a lucrative golden parachute as his reward for helping to build the Lakers into a $10 billion company.

JJ Redick and Rob Pelinka fully understand the extensions they received right before the sale don’t protect their jobs. There’s a reason why Mark Walter has brought in Dodgers’ execs Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi.
As head coach, Redick has more job freedom than Pelinka, who now has to convince an entirely new team of execs who will be a harder and more challenging sell than Jesse and Joey Buss or Kurt and Linda Rambus were.

Make no mistake, while Rob Pelinka will have a say, it will be Mark Walter’s team that makes the final decision whether to invest in winning this year versus positioning the team for a blockbuster bonanza next summer.
In the end, the Lakers have too good of a puncher’s chance with Luka and LeBron not to be willing at least to trade one first and one second round pick to provide an elite starting small forward and backup defensive center.

If the Lakers would use a first and a second to acquire Andrew Wiggins and Robert Williams, they would have a solid puncher’s chance of winning their 18th championship and still be positioned to pull off a summer bonanza.

Under Jeanie Buss, the Los Angeles Lakers were never one of the teams that embraced advanced analytics and data-driven decision making. That’s all about to change as Mark Walter takes over as new owner of the Lakers.

Mark Walter’s purchase of the Los Angeles Dodgers and evolution of the franchise from bankruptcy to three world championships in the last six World Series was powered by analytics and data-driven decision making. Under new president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and new analytics guru Farhan Zaidi, the Dodgers organization was completely rebuilt with analytics as the driving engine behind all major decisions.

While the Lakers are in a far better situation than the Dodgers were when Walter bought them, there are key differences in how the leagues manage players’ salaries and free agency and teams’ cap space and luxury taxes.
Walter is expected to replicate what he did with the Dodgers and pour resources into areas with no limits by the NBA. Look for the Lakers to dramatically expand their front office, scouting, and training staffs.

But the single major difference fans are going to see is in the consistency and quality of candidates the Lakers will be pursuing in trades, draft, and free agency. Every decision the Lakers make will be analytics driven.
We may also see increased attention to signing free agents in the short term as Lakers take advantage of LeBron James’ expiring $50 million contract to build depth and save draft capital by prioritizing free agency.

The Lakers have now won 19 of their 26 games. Let’s look at what analytics says the Lakers need and then discuss possible moves they could make to specifically meet the needs the Lakers require to become champions.

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What Analytics Says Lakers Need!

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A quick review of the Lakers advanced and traditional statistics is the first place to see what analytics is telling the Lakers they need both offensively and defensively to become legitimate contenders to win the championship.

Despite ranking 8th in offensive rating, 20th in defensive rating, and just 14th in net rating, the 19–7 Lakers have the 3rd best record in the West and 4th best in the league only because they’ve won 10 out of 10 clutch games.
The media, analytics, and our own eyes tell us the Lakers have defensive issues and their current performance can’t be sustained unless the team makes an unexpected blockbuster move before the trade deadline.

Digging into the Lakers’ traditional stats, defensive red flags confirmed their #20 defensive rating was a realistic assessment of their defense as they ranked #21 in defensive rebounding, #20 in steals, and #25 in blocks. Offensive red flags that also demanded attention include finishing #30 in field goal attempts, #23 in threes made, #24 in threes attempted, #24 in assists created, #21 in turnovers, and #26 in offensive rebounds.

Positionally, the Lakers need a starting small forward who can defend bigger wing scorers and a shot blocking defensive center who could backup and/or play alongside starting center Deandre Ayton in a two-bigs lineup. Reports say Lakers want to keep their only tradable first round draft pick so they will be able to offer three first round picks on draft day next summer, which means they will only have a second round pick to trade at deadline.

Advanced analytics says the Lakers need to prioritize finding young, inexpensive, two-way 3&D candidates who have positional size, can defend their position, share the basketball, and impact the team analytically.

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How Lakers Will Fill Those Needs

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While things could change as the deadline approaches, the Lakers have essentially announced for now they’re saving their only tradable first round pick to offer three first round picks for Giannis on draft day next summer.

When you consider how Mark Walter’s team built the Dodgers, it’s silly to think the Lakers would pass on a chance to go all-in to trade for Giannis. The Lakers just sent a personal direct message to Giannis and the Bucks.
LA will need $58 million in matching salaries to trade for Giannis, which means extending players like Reaves and trading expiring players like Vincent, Kleber, and maybe even Hachimura for players with 2-year deals.

At the trade deadline, the Lakers will be looking to trade expiring contracts and their 2032 2nd round pick for young 3&D prospects who will or can be under contract and tradable next summer when Lakers have three picks.
Targets whom the Lakers might acquire for matching salaries and their 2032 second round pick could include potential 3&D players like Keon Ellis or Quentin Grimes or centers like Robert Williams III or Daniel Gafford.

Step 1 of the Lakers’ blockbuster summer will then use three first round picks for a star player to complement Luka like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Herbert Jones, Walker Kessler, Jaren Jackson, Jr., or Bam Adebayo.
Step 2 will utilize their $85 million in open cap space to replace the depth lost in Round 1 trade by signing their free agents and adding from a pool of elite free agents like Wiggins, Robinson, Olynyk, Alvarado, and Mathurin.

The Lakers are positioned to pull off a blockbuster summer with $85 million to sign their own and other teams’ free agents and three first round picks and matching salary to trade for a superstar or pair of two-way studs.

Analytics is telling the Lakers their Big Three of Luka, Austin, and LeBron is not the juggernaut they hoped for and the team plays much better when any combination of just two of their three offensive stars share the court.

While it’s early in the season and the 17–7 Lakers are still are tied for the 4th best record in the West and 5th best in the NBA, the losses exposed the Big Three’s struggles both on offense and defense when playing together. What’s been extremely concerning is all 7 of the Lakers’ losses have been by double digits, a pattern that not only continues to repeat itself but now seems to be happening more often, leading to 2 losses in the last 3 games.

It’s also not like the Lakers’ Big Three starting lineup has been unstoppable or an offensive juggernaut. Even in their 17 wins, the Lakers only managed a 118.0 offensive (#7), 116.7 defensive (#21), and +0.3 net rating (#15).
The problem was exacerbated in their 7 losses, which all were by double digits to teams with young, physical backcourts. In losses, the Lakers had a poor 103.9 offensive (#29), 122.6 defensive (#22), and -18.7 net rating (#29).

The Lakers current 5-man starting lineup of Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James, and Deandre Ayton has played 76 minutes in 6 games with a 107.6 offensive, 120.7 defensive, and -13.1 net rating.
The only lineup that’s played more minutes is the same 5-man lineup but with Marcus Smart instead of LeBron James. That lineup played 80 minutes in 9 games with a 114.6 offensive, 101.1 defensive, and +13.5 net rating.

The Lakers Big Three starting lineup is broken. Let’s see what Redick could do in the short term to put a band aid on the problem, what Pelinka could do at the trade deadline, and whether somebody needs to go to the bench.

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WHAT CAN REDICK DO TO FIX LAKERS’ DEFENSE?

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The move JJ Redick must now make is to start Marcus Smart to give the starting lineup their missing point-of-attack defender, free Austin Reaves from playing that role, and shift Rui Hachimura’ scoring to the bench.

While Smart does not have the prototypical size of a starting small forward, he can still defend up a position and is the Lakers’ best option to replace Rui Hachimura to give the starting lineup an elite lock down defender.
Ironically, the Lakers 5-player lineup of Doncic, Smart, Reaves, James, and Ayton has only appeared for 3 minutes in 1 game, where they posted an offensive rating of 80.0, defensive rating of 200.0, and net rating of -120.0.

Despite that crazy 3-minutes, starting Smart and moving Hachimura to the bench is too obvious a move for Redick to continue to ignore, especially since Smart owns the #1 defensive rating and #1 net rating on the team.
The big advantage of starting Smart is that he, not Reaves, will be guarding the opposing team’s top scorer. Austin’s offense clearly suffered from also having to be the Lakers’ primary on-ball guard defender last two games.

Redick should start Smart for defense, move Hachimura to the bench for offense, and invest minutes in young players with defensive upside like Thiero or Mañon and veterans who play solid defense like Vanderbilt.
Redick should run 10-man rotation with better offense/defense balance. The starters should be Doncic, Reaves, Smart, James, and Ayton with Smith Jr, Thiero/Mañon, LaRavia, Hachimura, and Vanderbilt as backups.

Lakers’ head coach Redick needs to retool his current starting lineup and rotation to play better defense, give more minutes to players who defend, and keep the team winning until Pelinka can make a trade deadline move.

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WHAT CAN PELINKA DO TO FIX LAKERS’ ROSTER?

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To be a legitimate contender, the Lakers need to add two defensive players: an elite 3&D starting small forward to defend bigger wing scorers and a big shot-blocking center who could backup and play alongside Deandre Ayton.

The Lakers’ problem is they do not have the young talent or draft capital needed at this point to trade for those two defenders and could be wise to be patient and wait until draft day next summer to make major moves.
Excluding swaps, which Luka trade and Mark Walter sale have devalued, the Lakers only draft capital right now is one first round and one second round pick, which could be enough to fill one of the two roster holes.

It will be interesting to see whom Rob Pelinka targets before the trade deadline. The abrupt move away from trades to free agency last summer was reportedly driven and approved by Mark Walter’s transition team.
Rumors are already popping up about the Lakers making small moves midseason to fix the roster but saving any blockbuster moves to next summer when they’ll have 3 picks and up to $100 million in cap space.

With Friedman and Zaidi working with Pelinka, the Lakers are expected to heavily rely on analytics to target inexpensive young players with strong two-way 3&D potential whom they could trade for before the deadline.
Eight players LA could target include the Blazers’ Robert Williams, Heat’s Andrew Wiggins, Suns’ Dillon Brooks, Pels’ Herb Jones, Magic’s Jonathan Isaac, Kings’ Keon Ellis, and Clippers’ Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones, Jr.

While the Lakers need moves to be contenders this year, there’s a strong argument the smarter move would be to wait until draft day next summer when they’ll have 3 first round picks plus mega cap space for free agents.

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WHICH OF BIG THREE SHOULD COME OFF BENCH?

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The reality is the Lakers may not be able to build a championship starting lineup with three offense-first stars in Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James. One of the three may ultimately have to come off the bench.

The problem with building a championship starting starting lineup around the Lakers’ offense-first Big Three is the other two starters need to be an alpha point-of-attack defender and elite shot-blocking defensive center.
Right now, Hachimura is definitely not alpha point-of-attack defender the Lakers need to guard bigger wing scorers nor is Ayton the bruising shot-blocking rim protector the Lakers need to be an elite defensive team.

What would make building a championship starting lineup and rotation easier would be if one of the Lakers Big Three were to come off the bench. That’s what the first quarter data and the analytics are telling the Lakers.
While it’s painful to imagine the Lakers asking Austin Reaves or LeBron James to come off the bench, it’s not impossible to imagine things getting so bad that Reaves or James ends up volunteering to come off the bench.

Ultimately, the Lakers solution is not asking one of the Big Three to come off the bench. It’s asking their Swiss-Army-knife superstar LeBron James to focus almost exclusively on playing defense rather than playing offense. Instead of focusing on offense and resting on defense, Redick needs to convince James to focus on defense and rest on offense. Turn LeBron into an elite 24 minutes per game point-of-attack defender and rim protector.

The Lakers don’t need one of their stars to go to the bench. What they need is their jack-of-all-trades, Swiss-Army-knife superstar LeBron James to let Luka and Austin dominate the offense while he takes care of the defense.

NBA owners should be as concerned about Mark Walter’s Lakers as MLB owners are about his Dodgers because different sports and rules could still not be enough to stop him from transforming the Lakers into a juggernaut.

Mark Walter transported the Dodgers from bankruptcy to championships by investing in the best talent on and off the field and providing them with the best possible resources to help them win games and become better. Preferring to avoid publicity, Mark believes in a hands-off, resource-rich, relentlessly-innovative ownership model for both the Lakers and Dodgers where he hires experts whom he trusts to run his sports enterprises.

Whereas the Dodgers were more of a complete turnaround project, Walter sees the Lakers as a franchise that’s left championships on the court due to limited resources, conflicted ownership, and front office mismanagement. With Luka extended, the Lakers should be able to legitimately compete for an NBA championship much sooner under Mark Walter’s ownership than the 7 years the Dodgers took to finally win after coming out of bankruptcy.

While experts believe Mark Walter will find the NBA difficult to dominate because its free agency and salary cap rules are much tougher than MLB, Mark sees great similarity and synergy between the Dodgers and Lakers.
While the sports and the rules may be different, the formula to succeed in baseball and basketball are eerily very similar. Fortunately for the Lakers, the sale of the team to Mark Walter will immediately create advantages.

Let’s look closer at four strategic championship advantages Mark Walter gives Lakers that Jeanie Buss couldn’t: (1) Hiring best people, (2) embracing analytics, (3) leveraging luxury taxes, and (4) thinking outside the box.

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1. Hiring Best People

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While Jeanie Buss preferred only to hire people recommended by a small group of associates, Mark Walter believes in doing whatever is necessary to hire the best people because that’s the surest way to succeed in business.

To help him hire the best people for the Lakers, Walter has already brought in Dodgers’ president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and trusted analytics guru Farhan Zaidi to be advisors during the ownership transition.
Friedman and Zaidi are the vision and brains behind the resurrection and transformation of the Dodgers and will immediately become strong voices to help Walter chart the future of the Lakers’ GM and head coach positions.

After buying the Dodgers in 2012, it only took Mark Walter 6 months before he replaced general manager Ned Colletti with a new president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who completely turned the Dodgers around.
Once the Dodgers were out of rebuilding mode, Walter hired Dave Roberts to replace Don Mattingly in 2016. Friedman and Roberts have now been with the Dodgers for nearly a decade, winning 3 of the last 6 World Series.

Less than 30 days after the NBA approved the Lakers’ sale, Mark Walter fired Joey and Jesse Buss, who had voted against the family selling the Lakers, and replaced most of the scouting department with new hires. While Pelinka and Redick were just given extensions, they’re aware Walter eventually fired each of their Dodger counterparts and replaced them with his personal choices, who’re still the team’s current GM and manager.

Pelinka and Redick will not only need to prove to Walter they’re the best people for their jobs but also that they will be excellent ‘team’ fits for his analytics-driven sports conglomerate. That could be a problem for Rob.

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2. Embracing Analytics

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While the Dodgers under Andrew Friedman have fully embraced analytics and supported data-driven decision making, the Lakers under Rob Pelinka have traditionally been late to the party regarding cutting edge technology.

Friedman and Zaidi believe the Lakers’ failure to jump aboard the analytics bandwagon is one of the reasons they haven’t won as many championships as they could have won if professionally financed and properly managed.
That’s why Walter’s top priority once the league approved the Lakers’ sale was to bring Friedman and Zaidi in as transition advisors to insure that the Lakers immediately embraced analytics and data-driven decision making.

Mark Walter is what you could consider to be an analytics true believer. He still understands the value of intuition and hunch when it comes to talent evaluation but he and everyone on his team has fully embraced analytics.
Trading for Luka saved Rob Pelinka’s job with Mark Walter, who became a Lakers’ minority shareholder in July 2021, the same month Rob traded for Westbrook. JJ will be fine since he’s a believer but Rob is gone for sure.

Fully embracing analytics will dramatically change the profile of the type of basketball players the Lakers will be trying to acquire via draft, trades, and free agency going forward. Priority will be legitimate two-way players.
Right now, the Lakers’ needs are a starting 3&D small forward and backup center on defense and high volume 3-point shooters on offense. LA is 24th in attempted threes, 23rd in made threes, and 17th in 3-point percentage.

Mark Walter knows the Lakers need a blockbuster trade to be a legitimate championship contender this season. Look for analytics and data-driven decision making to dominate every Lakers’ critical trade deadline move.

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3. Leveraging Luxury Taxes

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No matter what they would like you to think, there is a direct relationship in MLB and in the NBA between franchises’ ability and willingness to pay mega luxury taxes and their chances of winning world championships.

While the NBA has added harsh competitive penalties to their financial penalties for paying salaries in excess of the first apron, the NBA as a sport with just 5 starters is by far more star dependent than MLB could ever be.
That’s why, despite tougher new rules for going over the first apron, there will always be teams willing to go all-in and pay whatever luxury tax penalties it costs to put together a payroll that can win a championship.

The 2024 NBA Champion Celtics were the most recent example of a team willing to pay outlandish salaries and luxury taxes to win 1 championship, incurring over $200 million in luxury taxes from 2023 through 2026.
Boston’s prior ownership leveraged the 2024 championship into a $6.1 billion value when selling the franchise despite the reality the new owners would have to break up what was an unaffordable championship team.

The grand prize for paying mega luxury taxes for winning 4 championships goes to the Warriors, who won titles in 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2022, while incurring almost $700 million in luxury taxes from 2019 through 2025.
The Warriors’ current Forbes’ franchise valuation is $11.3 billion, which makes them the most valuable franchise in the NBA. The Warriors’ value back in 2113 before high salaries and luxury taxes was only $555 million.

While the Lakers under the Busses never paid mega luxury taxes, the willingness to pay mega luxury taxes has been a long-time staple of Mark Walter’s business philosophy. Expect the Lakers 2.0 to be the Warriors.

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4. Thinking Outside Box

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The most underrated but perhaps most valuable advantage that Mark Walter gives the Lakers that Jeanie Buss could not is the ability to think outside of the box, to address challenges with surprising solutions.

Revealing examples of Dodgers thinking outside the box are everywhere. Their focus on recruiting international players and fans. Their innovative signing of Shohei Ohtani that deferred most of his $700 million contract.
They used advanced metrics to identify undervalued talent and optimize depth, redefined how starting and relief pitchers could be maximized, and created a championship culture through extensive team building rituals.

What Mark Walter has created through Andrew Friedman and Dave Roberts is a model for sustainable business and cultural success that every owner of a professional sports franchise should study and emulate.
Walter fully intends to deploy the same business philosophies, analytics strategies, and powerhouse of resources that catapulted the Dodgers to the top of their league to transform the Los Angeles Lakers into a juggernaut.

While pulling off trades in professional sports is a mix of art and science, I’m looking forward to seeing how the change in ownership from Jeanie Buss to Mark Walter will change what the Lakers do at the trade deadline.
The moves last offseason where the Lakers used free agency to sign three important players under market value without losing any draft capital or roster depth could have been our first glimpse of the Lakers’ future.

The Lakers need a starting 3&D small forward, backup center, and more 3-point takes and makes. Look for the Lakers to focus on younger, less expensive, higher-upside type candidates in any trades they make.