Lakerholics

With all the talk of the Lakers possibly looking to sign-and-trade for various star free agents like Kyle Lowry or Chris Paul, I took a close look at what their salary cap situation would be if they signed-and-traded for Kyle Lowry vs. trading for Terry Rozier and Buddy Hield, who are not free agents and wouldn’t hard cap the team at $143 million for the season. The results are extrememly interesting.

First, the hard cap situation. If the Lakers were to give Lowry a 3-year contract starting at $22 million per year, they would be able to bring back THT and Caruso with raises to $10 and $5 million respectively, guarantee McKinnie’s $1.9 million, sign their first round draft pick, and have amost all of their $9.5 million MLE to sign lower priced free agents while remaining under $143 million. Luxury taxes would only be $42,000.

Were the Lakers to target a more expensive free agent like Chris Paul who makes $44 million, they would not be able to re-sign THT or Caruso, guarantee McKinnie, keep their first round pick, or use any of their MLE. They would basically have to fill out their roster with vet minimum deals and might only be able to afford 13 or 14 roster players.

The better solution by far would be to avoid sign-and-trades for other team’s free agents, bring back their key free agents, and trade for a new starting backcourt like Rozier and Hield. In that case, the Lakers would have a salary cap of $157 million and a luxury tax bill of $33 million for a grand total payroll of $190 million, almost $50 million higher than if they were hardcapped.

Would the Lakers be willing to pay $50 million more for a better and deeper roster? If we believe Jeanie Buss and the Lakers understand that LeBron’s championship window is rapidly shrinking, the answer has to be yes. It’s not as bad as the tax situation is for the Warriors or Nets but it will be a strong third on the list of teams paying luxury taxes but the Lakers are clearly in a win now mode so bring it on.

Been saying from the get-go we should avoid hard capping ourselves unless it is for an elite talent. Not many players fit that and/or will be available this summer. The best thing about re-signing most of our guys and not hard capping ourselves is that we can trade any of our players after the calendar year turns over. All contracts will be movable by mid to late December. I can’t see a scenario where being hard capped is an advantage.

I look at the 4 teams paying the luxury tax this season..GSW, Nets, Clippers, Bucks. All 4 are top contenders for the ring (GSW if Klay is healthy). It’s not overspending when it makes you better. I would hate to see Jeanie intentionally handicap us for a player like Kyle Lowry and also lose good, cost-friendly role players in the process. Uninformed Laker fans will probably give her a pass because the narrative will be “Hey, we spent all we could and reached the cap” but we know it isn’t the truth.

It’s really starting to feel like this vast Lakers warchest is at least overstated. Despite the big TV deal, there’s all this infighting among the siblings grinding things down in the background. They also don’t have the multi-billion empires outside the association. I think they don’t spend money on stuff sometimes because it doesn’t make sense to them.

KYLE LOWRY TRADE

With Lowry, Schroder, and Horton-Tucker now free agents, there’s no way to resurrect the trade the Lakers and Raptors almost made at the trade deadline. Frankly, both teams probably regretted not making the trade in retrospect.

A straight double S&T of Schroder for Lowry, however, might be an excellent deal for both teams. Lowry and Schroder would obviously both have to agree to be sign-and-traded. The Raptors want to help Kyle go where he wants out of loyalty and would be happy to get a young point guard like Schroder to replace Lowry. The win-now Lakers would be happy to get a proven winner like Lowry. Both teams would be glad not to lose a star point guard for nothing.

BUDDY HIELD TRADE

This is a trade that really makes sense for both the Lakers and the Kings and should be at the top of the list for both teams. Kuzma enjoyed his best season playing for Luke Walton and should be a perfect fit starting at power forward for the Kings. Harrelll would also be a great fit for Sacramento backing up Richaun Holmes, assuming they re-sign him.

For the Lakers, Buddy is the high volume, high percentage 3-point shooter they need to upgrade shooting guard and hlep modernize the Lakers 3-point attack. With Halliburton’s ascent, Hield is too expensive to come off the bench for the Kings.

RUSSELL WESTBROOK TRADE

Call me crazy but if there is a legitimate superstars out there for whom the Lakers could actually trade, it might be Russell Westbrook. Like CP3, pundits had written off Russ last year as being an albatross contract and a player who couldn’t win.

While I’m not a fan of Russ’ 3-point shooting and often question his shot selection and ball security, there’s no denying that he still has a lot in the tank and the idea of adding a triple-double machine like Westbrook to James and Davis is intoxicating.

The move would hard cap the Lakers and cause them to rely on vet minimum players for the rest of the roster but it would also give them a legitimate Superstar Big Three to challenge the Brooklyn Nets. The team that wins the championship next season will be a team with three genuine superstars.

GRAHAM AND MONK TRADE

This is another trade that makes a lot of sense for both teams. The Hornets have a surplus of guards and need forwards and centers. They showed interest in both Kuzma and Harrell last season.

While Charlotte has cap space, they will be looking to sign a center to replace Cody Zeller. Meanwhile, with the emergence of LaMelo Ball, they can move Terry Rozier to shooting guard and thus can trade both Devonte Graham and Malik Monk.

Graham would be the perfect point guard for a Lakers team with LeBron James. Devonte hiet 3.3 of 8.7 threes per game at 37.5% and Malik hit 2.0 of 5.1 for 40.1%. That’s exactly the kind of high volume, high percentage 3-point shooting the Lakers need.

One of the fascinating things that could easily happen this summer is a lot of teams hanging onto their trading chips waiting to see if Dame or Beal or Kawhi will really become available. There may be a chance for the Lakers to pull off a surprise deal for a second tier star like Lowry, Hield, Porzingis, Rozier, ior Walker because competing teams may not want to wait for bigger fish. That could benefit the Lakers if they push hard for a couple of deals.

Rob could certainly call up Masai and see if he were uinterested in a Schdoder-Lowry Double S&T? Or Sqcramento about a Kuzma for Buddy Trade, Washington about a Westbrook trade, or Charlotte about a Graham and Monk trade? The teams the Lakers will be competing with for these players are likely to be teams targeting bigger fish. This is why it doesn’t matter that other teams could make better offers for these players. The Lakers just have to have best offer made.

Soooo can we do 2 separate S&T’s? We can if we bring back a player under contract in at least one, I believe…

Before the last two years, sign-and-trades were rare transactions because teams didn’t want to get hardcapped, players who were free agents didn’t want to the team they were going to lose assets, and matching salaries can be difficult due to base year compensation rules for sign-and-trades. In fact, from 2015 to 2019, there were only four cases of sign-and-trades.

That all changed the last two years when there has been a renaissance in sign-and-trades with over a dozen happening the last two years, including several with superstars as NBA teams have been on trading binges looking to add superstars and build superteams. Win-Now approach has revived sign-and-trades.

The increased competition between big market teams looking to win has resulted in a race to sign big time stars that’s seen more superstars and all-star players traded than any time in the league’s history. Trades, including sign-and-trades, have essentiaslly replaced free agency as the favored method for acquiring elite players in the NBA.

A side effect of the competition for stars has been teams wanting to use the non-taxpayer version of the MLE, the BAE, and sign-and-trades to acquire players. All three of these moves automatically hard cap a team. In fact, over half of the teams in the NBA last season were hard capped.

One of the unsung benefits of being hard capped is that you can’t overspend on your own players. While hard cap used to be what everybody avoided, the economic losses due to Covid-19 have made being hard capped as a form of fiscal restraint adoped by teams to force them to be financially sound.

While Jeanie Buss has said the Lakers will do what they have to, you only have to look at the Warriors, who are so far over the cap that adding a $10M per year player would cost them $50M in luxury taxes. In fact, there luxury tax bill will be between $50M and $100M. That’s not a sustainable situation even for a team with great revenues like the Warriors.

Bottom line, the Lakers need to take advantage of both outbound and inbound sign-and-trades to upgrade their starting roster. Otherwise, there is no way they can dramatically improve their roster. This years contenders were much better than last year’s and the competition will only get even better next season. Lakers need to go big, even if it costs them to be hard capped.

How the NBA Fell in Love With Sign-And-Trades, and Why They’re Not Going Anywhere by Chris Howson-Jan https://t.co/tjC4BXj8pc

— LakerTom (@LakerTom) June 29, 2021

It’s a solid tool and one that shouldn’t be wholly ignored. In our case it has to be used judiciously and wisely.

One would think that, in regards to the Lakers current capped out situation and based on the level of talent we could likely S&T for that an argument could be made to simply sign our own free agents and sit tight until December when the contracts become tradeable with zero repercussions. It’s not like the team was struggling pre-injuries, we were rolling.

If we S&T it has to be to bring in an elite player which feels nigh impossible based on our tradable assets (can’t trade Trezz if he doesn’t opt in and agree, which, based on his social media feels unlikely), Schroder would have to be making a mint and might be choosy about where he plays knowing he has a ton of leverage.

At any rate, I hope we use that tool as intelligently as possible. I’m not wholly against running it back with a few tweaks but would be more in favor of S&Ting Schroder into the Knicks cap or something like that as it would create a trade exception we could use at any point in the season. Convincing a small market team to HC themselves isn’t outside the realm of possibility, not sure another mass media market team wants to put the restraints on right when they are ascending again, same as us.

Like we’ve been saying for awhile there are areas that we cannot hard cap ourselves in: training staff, assistant coaches, etc. We need to be an elite team in those areas to be more attractive to guys who we may be asking to take a pay cut to stay.

Lakers trading chips in no outbound sign-and-trades:

KCP – $13.0M
Kyle Kuzma – $13.0M
Marc Gasol – 2.7M

Assuming Harrell declines player option.

Lakers additional trading chip with outbound sign-and-trades:

Dennis Schroder – $23.0M
Montrezl Harrell – $15.0M
THT – $10.0M
Alex Caruso – $6.0M

…………………..

Lakers targets if no inbound sign-and-trades:

Myles Turner
Buddy Hield
Malik Beasley
Kemba Walker

Lakers targets with inbound sign-and-trades:

Kyle Lowry
Chris Paul
Lonzo Ball
Tim Hardaway, Jr.
John Collins
Jarrett Allen
Nerlens Noel
Norman Powell
Spencer Dinwiddie
Victor Oladipo
Derrick Rose
Richaun Holmes
Kendrick Nunn
Lauri Markkanen
Bobby Portis
TJ McCollum
Reggie Jackson
Terance Mann
Evan Fournier
Kelly Oubre, Jr.

I don’t think we necessarily need the shackles of the hard cap to restrain us from going too far into the luxury tax. Despite being one of the most valuable franchises in all of sports, we often pinch pennies..many times needlessly and as a detriment to the team. Jeanie ain’t going too deep into the tax.

Here’s my biggest issue with all these trade scenarios…Kuz, KCP, Dennis, Caruso..they’ve all pretty much hit their ceiling. Teams don’t wanna trade premium assets for that. All those dudes we traded for AD were still on the come-up (and Rich Paul left NO No choice..lol). That’s why teams keep insisting on THT, still has potential. And Trez ain’t opting in to do us any favors. Probably our 3rd best player last year & we jacked him around at the end. Somebody gonna pay him.

I always love an idea that’s out-of-the-box and the Lakers trading for Ben Simmons certainly is not something most LA fans would be in favor of, especially after Ben’s flaws were exposed in the Sixers’ second round loss to the Hawks. Now might be the perfect time for the Lakers to steal him while his price is low.

When you look at Ben Simmon’s skills size and skills, it’s obvious to me that he would be better suited to be a point center than a point guard. In fact, he could be the Lakers’ version of Draymond Green, an elite small ball center who can defend all five positions as well as make plays for hiomself and teammates.

While other teams are going small on offense with stretch fives, the Lakers would be going in the other direction and looking to go small on defense, much like the Warriors did with Draymond Green and their Death Lineup. A front court Superstar Big Three of LeBron, AD, and Ben could be the best defensive front court in the history of the league.

We’re talking about three near 7-footers who can each defend 1 through 5 at the rim or behind the 3-point line. That’s unheard of size, speed, quickness, athleticism, and mobiliity for a small ball lineup. While it’s a long shot to happen, it’s the kind of creative and innovative moves Rob Pelinka needs to make to rebuild the Lakers this summer.

I actually kind of love this idea except for that Ben might get pushed around by guys like Embiid, Ayton and their ilk. But that could an incredibly unique dimension to the Laker offense.

Thanks, Jamie. This is actually one of my favorite articles this season. I had written last year about Ben’s potential as a small ball center but am intrigued by the possibility that Philly will have to trade Simmons. I think his potential as small ball point center on offense and a mobile athletic rim protector who can guard all five positions on defense is elite.

As for Embiid or Ayton pushing Ben around, Ben is 6′ 11″ 250 lbs and will have 6′ 9″ 250 lbs LeBron James and 6′ 11″ 250 lbs Anthony Davis to help him in the post. Lakers could dominate inside on offense and defense. Would need to find two elite high volume 3-point shooters for the guards position to make it work but teams would struggle to score against a James, Davis, Simmons Big Three.

Do I wish he could shoot and stretch the floor? Sure, but his ability to switch and shut down players who play all five positions makes up for that. Inabiliity to defend on the perimeter is what allows teams to play other centers off the court. That won’t happen with Ben, who has replace Myles Turner as my primary center target for the Lakers.

Talk about doubling down on defense. James, Davis, and Simmons would give the Lakers three ‘bigs’ who are mobile, athletic, and impactful at both ends. All three could play the five. All three are great instinctive defenses. All three are BIG and strong. They would make the Lakers defense dramatically better and more versatile.

Rich Paul needs to push this idea to the Lakers. It’s the single best way to redeem Ben’s value. Playiong small ball five with LeBron and AD would resurrect his career in a major way. Lakers defense, playmaking, and versatility would be unmatched in the league.

Count me in. Someone will get thru to Ben and help unleash him into the dynamic playoff performer that he can be. Why not us?

No. They can’t. If they wouldn’t take James Harden for him, they won’t take the worthless garbage the Lakers have to offer.

We’re going to have a Lakers Fast Break podcast Sunday night to be posted Monday morning discussing all of the Lakers options to upgrade their current roster with trades and free agent signings this summer.

I wrote this article as part of my preparation for that podcast and as a guideline for Lakers fans to consider what I believe are the team’s top options to replace Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Andre Drummond as starters.

I’m a strong believer that the Lakers’ offseason plan needs to focus on landing a third star. My top picks for starting point guard are Kyle Lowry, starting shooting guard CJ McCollum, and starting center Myles Turner. Landing one of these three could take almost all of the Lakers trading chips, including young stars like Caruso and THT and their draft pick.

Since the Lakers don’t have enough trade assets or exceptions to land their top option at all three positions, Pelinka is going to have to be creative and decide which position should be the top priority and how resources should be allocated among the positions.

Are there scenarios where Schroder, KCP, or Drummond end up starting for the Lakers? If so, hopefully they would be part of packages where the Lakers landed a third superstar in the form of Lowry or McCollum or the player I still think should be their top priority: Myles Turner.

At any rate, hope you enjoy the article. I list my four top choices for the Lakers to pursue at point guard, shooting guard, and center. I also include all of the latest stats for each of the 12 players on my list. Let me know what you think of the article, my picks, and who else you would add to the list of potential starters for next season’s Lakers.

So, if the rumors are true, the Lakers may be looking to revive the Dennis Schroder and KCP for Lowry trade the Lakers and Raptors came close to making at the trade deadline when the Lakers woundn’t include THT.

The big question is what would the trade look like this time around? Raptors would have to agree with Dennis on a contract (4 years. $84 million) and Lakers with Lowry (2 years, $50 million). If the Lakers could make trade Schroder & KCP for Lowry, do it. It would be an important first domino to make the offseason a winner almost no matter what else.

The beauty of the deal is it doesn’t cost the Lakers Kyle Kuzma, their best trading chip, who could be used in a deal with Sacramento for Buddy Hield, another situation where there is history of interest on both sides. Buddy would modernize the Lakers offense greatly and open up lanes fr LeBron and AD to attack but also open shooters for them to dish to.

The Lakers problem this summer is they have no riller or ballast. So they can’t trade Kuzma ($13M) straight up for Buddy ($22M). Maybe add McKinnie and Gasol. Maybe expand the trade to include THT in a S&T and get back Maurice Harkness and Damian Jones. Anyway, there’s a way. That only leaves the starting center situation.

Good article Tom. I would love to Lonzo back home. I’m not crazy about bringing in a 35 year old Lowry that missed 26 games this year. McCollum would fit in great offensively just know that he isn’t the defender that KCP is and we’d suffer on that end. I also would like the fit with Buddy Hield. He struggled to make shots all year but with LBJ and AD he’d get a more easier shots with the Lakers. I agree Turner would be great fit but I don’t think the Pacers will trade him to the Lakers.

Dennis not agreeing unless he gets a major overpay which TO won’t want, so don’t waste your breath.

I am not on the Lowry or Kemba train. We have injury concerns enough as it is. In terms of the SG spot I think we have to also consider what’s full off-season of rest will do for KCP who, apart from his lack of a consistent shot or aggressive offensive posture last season, is a perfect fit fir this team. As far as center goes I am also not on board the “we 100%, absolutely have to, we’ve failed LeBron if we don’t get a stretch give this summer” train. Ayton doesn’t shoot threes, just does big man stuff well. If we can swing a reasonable trade for Turner or Vucevic, great, those are the only two I’d really consider, maybe bringing back an aged-Brook Lopez if possible but other than that we need a banger for the regular season more than a tall guy who can shoot threes. Honestly I’ll be fine if we simply keep Gasoline and Drummond if it’s for the vet min in Dre’s case. Prove you want to be here, give us the ability to build steam around you and we can give you a raise next season. PG is where we need to focus. Using Schroder in a S&T for either Russ, Dame or…Simmons… makes TONS of sense for the Lakers as those guys are already signed and we wouldn’t be hard-capped in the doing. If that takes including KCP or Kuzma I think I’d be cool with that since those minutes can be slotted right into THT’s growth chart. Also, don’t sleep on us keeping cost-controlled McKinnie who showed some promise as a role guy with his rebounding and decent enough shooting. Honestly I’d be thrilled if the Lakers were in play to acquire Payne or Reggie. Calling Rondo on the buyout market next season now, lol.