Lakerholics

At the half way point of the season, analytics is telling the Lakers they’re a statistically bottom-10 team in four critical areas needed to play winning basketball: 3-point makes, field goal attempts, rebounds, and blocks.

Right now, the Lakers rank 23rd in 3-point shots made, 29th in field goals attempted, 26th in rebounds collected, and 27th in shots blocked. These are the four key areas the Lakers need to upgrade before the trade deadline. With offense-first stars, it’s no surprise the Lakers ranked 25th on defense. The shock was when the best the expected juggernaut Doncic, James, and Reaves offense could do was the 9th best offense with a -9.8 net rating.

The Lakers need a total roster makeover right now and not just one or two new players to be a legitimate contenders. They may also need to expand their draft capital, trade James or Reaves, and find a new center rotation.
They need volume 3-point shooting, positional front court size for better rebounding and rim protection, and more speed and athleticism to help upgrade their point of attack, offensive rebounding, and transition games.

The Lakers realistically have two promising opportunities to make major strides towards totally rebuilding the team’s starting lineup and rotation around transcendent 27-year old superstar point guard Luka Doncic.
The Lakers’ first opportunity to rebuild their roster would be via trades before the trade deadline and their second opportunity would be via signing multiple unrestricted and restricted free agents next summer.

Let’s look closer at the franchise-defining questions Lakers must answer and the strategies they need to successfully execute a roster makeover via mega trades before the deadline and signing of free agents next summer.

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Lakers’ Franchise-Defining Questions

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The Lakers need to answer several franchise-defining questions before they can properly plan and execute specific strategies and tactics to take advantage of the looming trade deadline and next summer’s free agency.

Heading the Lakers’ list of franchise-defining questions is what to do with LeBron James, Austin Reaves, and Deandre Ayton. Unless things change, the Lakers plan to allow LeBron James’ contract to expire at end of season.
LeBron has 4 realistic options. He could retire, re-sign with the Lakers, sign with another NBA team, or waive his no-trade clause and request a trade. Barring winning #18, this season is most likely LeBron’s last as a Laker.

What to do with Austin Reaves is Lakers’ next franchise-defining question. Austin dramatically elevating his game to an All-Star level this season has ended most concerns if he and Luka could be a championship backcourt. Despite the redundancy in Doncic’s and Reaves’ games that makes building a two-way starting lineup challenging and the risk of overpaying or losing him for nothing to free agency, the Lakers are not going to trade Austin.

Finally, the Lakers have reached the point where they know they must move on from Ayton. LA needs a defense-first center to protect the rim but trading Deandre and his $8 million player option will be challenging.
Ideally, the Lakers must embrace analytics and build a center rotation that prioritizes protecting the rim and controlling the boards on defense and spacing the floor with 3-point shooting and vertical lob threats on offense.

Under Mark Walter’s ownership, LA has made franchise-defining decisions to allow LeBron James’ contract to expire, to pair Austin Reaves with Luka Doncic going forward, and to move on from Deandre Ayton at center.

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Lakers’ Trade Deadline Priorities

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While most pundits think the Lakers’ greatest need is for an elite starting 3&D wing like Herb Smith, the analytics are saying the quickest and easiest upgrade LA can make at both ends is replacing Deandre Ayton at center.

While some changes can wait until summer, it’s obvious the Lakers will not be a true title contender until they have a starting center to protect the rim, control the backboards, and space the floor horizontally and vertically. Lakers’ top priorities at the trade deadline should be to expand their draft capital so they can also trade for a modern starting center to protect the rim and space the floor and elite starting 3&D wing to play small forward.

LA could expand their tradable draft capital from 1 to 4 first round picks by trading their 2031 unprotected pick for three protected picks from OKC, including a 2027 pick that would let them trade their 2026 and 2028 picks.
That would allow the Lakers to trade their 2026 and 2028 picks plus 2 of the 3 first round picks they got from OKC while keeping a 2027 first round pick. This would give the Lakers 4 first round picks to trade at the deadline.

Ideally, the Lakers would use these 4 picks as sweeteners plus $65 million in matching salaries to trade for new starting and backup centers and new starting small forward before the looming February 5th trade deadline.
For example, LA could trade Ayton, Kleber, Vincent, Vanderbilt and 3 picks to Memphis for Jaren Jackson Jr., Knecht and 1 pick to Denver for Peyton Watson, and Hachimura to Portland straight up for Robert Williams.

That would leave the Lakers with a starting lineup of Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Peyton Watson, LeBron James, and Jaren Jackson Jr. and enough cap space under the second apron to sign buyouts Middleton and Oubre Jr.

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Lakers’ Summer Free Agent Frenzy

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After deadline trades for a starting center, starting small forward and backup center, the Lakers could head into next summer with a free agency war chest of up to $100 million for their own and other teams’ free agents.

Lakers will use $45 million in cap space to give their free agents raises: Reaves to $30 million, Watson to $25 million, Williams to $9 million, Smart to $8 million, Hayes to $3 million, Smith Jr. and Timme to $2 million/year.
During the summer free agency, they will use an additional $35 million in cap space to sign Houston’s Tari Eason for $25 million per year, Kings’ Keon Ellis for $7.0 million per year , and Clippers’ Chris Paul $3 million per year.

The Lakers total payroll for the 2026–27 season will total $224.0 million, which is $260.9 thousand under the $223.7 million second apron. Starters will earn $178.8 million, backups $33.9 million, and reserves $12.2 million.
One policy the Mark Walter Lakers are likely to follow the same as the Mark Walter Dodgers is they will paying top salaries for every position but will limit the length of contracts to retain maximum optionality and versatility.

Mark Walter’s Dodgers treat MLB luxury taxes as necessary investments. The Lakers could open $13 million more in cap space by hard capping team at the $223.7 million second apron instead of the $210.7 million first apron.
The second apron is the final spending limit franchises can go into before facing severe team-building penalties. Those penalties are so competitively severe that the second apron essentially acts like the NBA’s hard cap.

Mark Walter’s goal is to complete the Lakers’ ownership and front office transition and finalize the total roster makeover that transforms the team into a legitimate NBA championship contender by the end of next summer.

Step by step, piece by piece, the Lakers appear to be putting together an innovative grand plan to surround Luka Doncic with a championship starting lineup and rotation that fits his timeline and playing style.

The Lakers’ biggest moves are projected to come next summer when they could have 3 tradable first round picks plus a dominant cap space war chest of $100 million to re-sign their own and steal other teams’ free agents. While many expect the Lakers to ultimately sacrifice this season for next, Mark Walter’s newly expanded front office could be planning a bold and innovative strategy to allow them to compete for a title this season too.

The bold and innovative strategy would have the Lakers trading their 2031 unprotected first round pick to the Thunder for 3 lessor value first round picks. OKC needs to move picks and has made similar trades in the past.
This is exactly the out-of-the-box type move Lakers fans should expect from a Mark Walter front office. The Lakers now have 5 picks over next 2 years: 1, 2, or 3 picks at deadline followed by 4, 3, or 2 picks next draft day.

This dramatically changes what Lakers can do before the trade deadline. Rather than wait for free agency, they could send two of the firsts before the deadline to Denver for Peyton Watson and Houston for Tari Eason.
Or they could use the two first round picks to trade with the Pelicans for small forward Herbert Jones, whom they’ve coveted as the perfect two-way 3&D point-of-attack wing they desperately need to upgrade their defense.

As the Mark Walter Dodgers sign more free agents, the Mark Walter Lakers are planning to convert their 2031 unprotected first round pick into three lessor value picks to give them more trading chips to upgrade their roster.

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TURNING 1 UNPROTECTED FIRST INTO 3 LESSER FIRSTS!

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This trade actually is a win-win trade for both the Lakers and the Thunder because it allows LA to break their unprotected 2031 pick into 3 lower value picks and OKC to consolidate 3 lower value picks into 1 higher value pick.

For their unprotected 2031 first round pick, the Lakers get the Thunder’s 2027 and 2029 unprotected first round picks and the Nuggets’ 2027 top-five protected first round pick. All are projected to be late first round picks.
Despite the Luka Doncic trade, the Lakers 2031 first round pick is worth 3 to 4 times what a top team’s protected picks are worth because of the lack of protection and how far in the future before the pick is made.

There are also several other NBA teams that are loaded with first and second round draft picks whom the Lakers could approach besides the Thunder, including the Utah Jazz, Houston Rockets, or Brooklyn Nets.
At the start of the season, the Thunder had 13 first round picks and 16 second round picks, the Nets 13 first round and 19 second round picks, the Jazz 13 first and 7 seconds, and the Rockets 9 firsts and 4 seconds.

Strategically, if the Lakers follow the same player development path as the Dodgers, draft picks may suddenly have a lot more value than they did with the Buss Lakers. Additionally, free agency may also begin to trump trades.
While NBA rules may be tougher than MLB, it only takes five great players to build a perfect team in basketball so Mark Walter’s approach could find success for the Lakers more quickly and easily than it did with the Dodgers.

Expect the Lakers to be very aggressive as the trade deadline approaches in trying to trade their 1 tradable first round pick to a team loaded with multiple first round picks for 3 first round picks of lessor value.

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ACCELERATING LAKERS’ EXTREME ROSTER MAKEOVER!

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If the Lakers can trade their unprotected 2031 first to an NBA team loaded with picks for 3 first round picks of lower value, then they could accelerate rebuilding their roster around Luka from next summer to this winter.

The above projected depth chart was originally a projection of the Lakers starting lineup and rotation for next season after spending $100 million in open cap space on an extreme roster makeover to optimize Luka Doncic.
By getting 3 lower value first round picks for their unprotected 2031 pick, the Lakers have an opportunity to save this season without sacrificing next summer by moving their makeover from next summer to this winter.

The additional draft picks also give the Lakers an opportunity to trade right now for players they originally targeted to acquire in free agency next summer. Suddenly, the Lakers have a chance to accelerate their makeover.
Rather than wait to sign free agents until next summer, the Lakers could simply use their $100 million in expiring contracts and newly acquired draft picks to trade for Watson, Eason, Kessler, Oubre Jr., and Middleton.

Strategically, it makes sense for the Lakers to use first round picks to get Denver and Houston to trade Watson and Eason at the trade deadline to avoid being outbid in free agency and losing them for nada next summer.
That would then leave the Lakers with the original three first rounders they could package along with picks #1–4 of their 2027 first rounder that Utah already owns. If necessary, the Lakers could include seconds and swaps.

Being under the first apron, the Lakers would be smart to use the trades to open up cap space to sign Kelly Oubre Jr. and Kris Middleton from the NBA buyout market to fill the backup shooting guard and power forward roles.

The Los Angeles Lakers smartly plan to weaponize next summer’s free agency with a generational war chest of $100 million in cap space plus possible ‘Godfather’ offers for four elite young defensive free agents.

When Ayton declines his player option and the Lakers allow the contracts of James, Hachimura, Vincent, and Kleber to expire, Los Angeles will have $100 million in cap space to sign their own and other teams’ free agents. With the salary cap going up next season, the Lakers will receive another $15 million in cap space under the first apron and $10 million more in cap space if they make a decision to be hard capped at the second apron.

It will be interesting to see what Mark Walter’s team decides regarding hard capping at first or second option. The Dodgers basically operated like the Warriors did, considering luxury taxes to be an investment and not a fine.
Bottom line, the Lakers should be able to create between $115 and $125 million in open cap space for their own and other teams’ free agents, depending on whether they opt to be hardcapped at first or second apron.

We saw last summer how free agency has significant pluses over trading for players as the Lakers were able to add Deandre Ayton, Jake LaRavia, and Marcus Smart without giving up matching salaries or draft capital.
By not extending LeBron, the Lakers will be the only team with over $100 million in cap space and the only contender with more than $50 million in open cap space. Competition will be Clippers, Wizards, Jazz, Nets, Bulls.

The Lakers have smartly positioned themselves as the top free agency team for Jazz’ center Walker Kessler, Nuggets’ small forward Peyton Watson, Rockets’ power forward Tari Eason, and Blazers’ center Robert Williams.

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Starting Center Walker Kessler

Walker Kessler, CE, 24-yrs, 7′ 2″, 7′ 6″ wingspan, 245 lbs, 1-yr $4.9M
14.4/10.8/3.0/1.8/1.4 in 30.8 mpg. 3P->1.2/1.6/75.0%, 3-yrs @ $25M

Walker Kessler will be the Lakers #1 target next summer. Kessler can not only protect the rim and defend in space but has also shown promising potential to stretch the floor with his 3-point shooting before his injury.

While he’s an RFA and will need a 3 or 4-year extension starting near $25 million per year, the Jazz have enough cap space that the Lakers can’t land Kessler with a Godfather offer so they’ll have to work out a sign-and-trade.
The Lakers best offer should be Dalton Knecht and their 2026, 2027, 2031, and 2033 unprotected first round draft picks. The Lakers already owe the Jazz picks 5–30 of their 2027 first rounder but can offer them picks 1–4.

Considering Kessler is coming off a major injury and will likely need a $75 to $100 million extension, Dalton Knecht and four first round draft picks should be a fair offer for Kessler, with a starting salary of $25 million.
For a Lakers team that’s lacked an elite rim protector since their 2020 championship, Walker Kessler would be their first big move to building a legitimate championship roster around Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

Kessler brings the Lakers three things they could not get from Ayton: rim protection, floor spacing, and physical domination. In the 5 games before his injury, Walker Kessler averaged 3.2 stocks and shot 6 of 8 from three.
Nobody expects Walker to average 3 stocks and shoot 75% from deep, but getting a 24-year old 7′ 2″, 245 lb center who can both protect the rim and stretch the floor with 3-point shooting is a championship move by Lakers.

Negotiating a sign-and-trade with the Utah Jazz for 24-year old center Walker Kessler should be the Los Angeles Lakers’ top priority next summer when they can offer Utah Dalton Knecht and four first round draft picks.

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Backup Center Robert Williams

Robert Williams III, CE, 28-yrs, 6′ 9″, 7′ 6″ wingspan, 249 lbs, 1-yr $13.3M
5.9/6.2/1.0/1.4/0.6 in 16.2 mpg. 3P->0.0/0.4/11.1%, 3-yrs @ $15M

With a heavy-minutes starting center like Walker Kessler, the Lakers can gamble on a limited-minutes injury prone elite backup center like Robert Williams III, who can replicate Kessler’s elite defense in limited minutes.

Giving Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves an elite versatile and deep center rotation of Walker Kessler, Robert Williams III, and Jaxson Hayes would be the first step towards transforming the Lakers into a championship team.
There is nothing skill-wise or talent-wise that would have a greater positive impact on the Lakers’ ability to play better defense than being able to roll out 48 minutes of elite rim protection at center position every single game.

Robert Williams is clearly a calculated risk but with Walker Kessler starting and Jaxson Hayes in case of emergency, the Lakers would have quality and depth at center to limit Robert’s minutes to keep him fresh and healthy.
Williams is so impactful defensively he could easily be the difference maker in a playoff game or series. As a RFA, a healthy Williams could command a 2 or 3-year contract starting around $15 million per year.

Besides anchoring their defense and protecting the rim, the other reason why the Lakers need to invest heavily in an elite center rotation is they must be able to play double-big lineups with elite offensive rebounders.
To win a championship in this new era of fast, athletic, and physical NBA play, you need to control the boards offensively and defensively. Best way for Lakers to do that would be with Walker Kessler and Robert Williams.

Lakers’ top priority after signing-and-trading for Kessler should be to sign Williams III to a 2 or 3-year deal starting at $15 million per year. Kessler and Williams could quickly become the best center rotation in the NBA.

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Starting Small Forward Peyton Watson

Peyton Watson, SF, 23-yrs, 6′ 8″, 7′ 1″ wingspan, 200 lbs, 1-yr $4.4M
14.2/4.7/1.6/0.9/1.0 in 27.9 mpg. 3P->1.1/3.1/35.6%, 3-yrs @ $25M

With the center rotation set, the Lakers have smartly positioned themselves to make ‘Godfather’ offers to a pair of elite young 3&D RFA wings who were not offered extensions because their franchise had other financial needs.

The first of these two 3&D RFA wings is the Nuggets’ Peyton Watson, a 23-year old athletic wing with elite defensive tools that Denver can no longer afford with the recent raises given to Christian Braun and Jabari Smith.
The Lakers envision Watson as their starting small forward of the future. He fills the Lakers’ need for point-of-attack wing defense, 3-point shooting, positional size, speed and quickness, and athleticism and physicality.

Defensively, Peyton Watson can capably defend three different positions. He defended threes 50% of his time, twos 25% of his time, and fours 25% of his time. He currently averages 1 block, 1 steal, and 1made three per game.
In his 4-years with the Nuggets, Peyton improved his points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals each season. He’s just become too expensive for the Nuggets to retain, which is why they did not offer him an extension.

The Lakers should be able to give Watson a ‘Godfather’ offer between $20 to $25 million that the Nuggets simply could not match considering they’re projected to be deep into the luxury tax and well over the second apron.
Watson should be offered as much as Braun, who received 5-years and $125 million, or Smith, who received 5-years and $122 million. But the Lakers could be smart to build in an overpay to assure their offer is not matched.

Peyton Watson would be the Lakers’ perfect starting 3&D small forward of the future. Los Angeles should make Watson a ‘Godfather’ offer of 3-years and $90 million to become their starting small forward of the future.

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Starting Power Forward Tari Eason

Tari Eason, PF, 24-yrs, 6′ 8″, 7′ 2″ wingspan, 215 lbs, 1-yr $5.7M
12.1/5.7/1.5/0.6/1.1 in 23.7 mpg. 3P->2.2/4.5/48.8%, 3-yrs @ $25M

Like the Nuggets’ Peyton Watson, Houston Rockets’ forward Tari Eason is the second elite young 3&D RFA wing who was not offered an extension because their team had other financial needs that were more important.

While Eason has struggled with injuries in his young career, he finds himself as an RFA because he and the Rockets could not agree upon an extension even though they project to have $20 to $30 million in cap space.
The Rockets are in a better position with respect to Eason than the Nuggets were with Watson. Most prognosticators predict the Rockets would match most offers for Eason so the Lakers may need to over pay to get him.

The Lakers view Tari Eason as their starting power forward of the future. They love his defensive versatility as he guarded both forward positions and his potential as a volume 3-point shooter who complements Kessler.
They also love the front court pairing of Tari Eason with Peyton Watson. Having a pair of young, athletic, physical, 6′ 8″ wings with 7′ 1″ wingspans is something the Lakers have desperately coveted for more than a decade.

The big question is how much will the Rockets be willing to match to keep a player whom they likely do not view as a starter. Would 3-years and $75 million be too much? What about front loaded 3-years and $75 million?
Strategically, the Lakers can create enough cap space to re-sign Austin Reaves, Marcus Smart, and Jaxson Hayes with raises and still have $100 million in cap space to sign and steal away other teams’ free agents.

The Lakers should give Tari Eason a ‘Godfather’ offer of 3-years and $90 million to become their starting power forward of the future and join Walker Kessler, Robert Williams III, and Peyton Watson as teammates.

The Lakers are positioning themselves to pull off an extreme summer makeover by leveraging their 3 first round draft picks and $100 million in cap space to re-sign their own and steal away other teams’ free agents.

Pulling off this blockbuster summer will require discipline and patience and could sacrifice any realistic chance of the Lakers winning rings during Luka’s first full season and LeBron’s likely final season in purple and gold. The harsh reality is the Lakers probably need more help to transform them into a championship contender this season than they could reasonably acquire with their current trading chips. Better to focus on next summer.

Recent reports confirm the Lakers do not plan to trade their one tradable first round draft pick midseason to be able to offer 3 unprotected first round draft picks in a mega trade for Giannis on draft day next summer. Frankly, I’m not a fan of the Lakers using all their draft capital and $60 million of their depth to match salaries to trade for a 30-year old Giannis. I’d rather the Lakers use those trading chips to build OKC-quality depth.

The Lakers have a unique opportunity because of their decision not to give LeBron an extension last summer. They could shrewdly create $100 million in cap space to sign their own and possibly steal other teams’ free agents.
Mark Walter is smartly prioritizing free agency over trades, seeking to fast track surrounding Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves with legitimate two-way roster depth that did not cost valuable draft capital and matching salaries.

The Lakers should leverage their 3 first round draft picks and $100 million in cap space to execute an extreme summer makeover that delivers elite defensive talent and transforms the Lakers into legitimate contenders.

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LAKERS FOCUSING ON CAP SPACE NEXT SUMMER!

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The Lakers currently plan to allow the contracts of James, Hachimura, Vincent, Kleber, and Ayton to expire at the end of the season to create $100 million in cap space to re-sign their own and other teams’ free agents.

While teams generally trade expiring contracts to avoid losing players to free agency for nothing, the Lakers are deliberately allowing 5 players to walk away for nothing to create $100 million in cap space next summer.
While this summer’s free agency class does not include any superstars, there are multiple quality UFA’s and a few elite RFA’s for whom the Lakers could make ‘Godfather’ offers and/or ultimately do a sign-and-trade.

With LeBron no longer under contract, the Lakers would likely waive Bronny so he could try to continue his career with another team. That would then leave the Lakers with 8 remaining players under contract.
5 players (Doncic, Vanderbilt, LaRavia, Knecht, and Thiero) are currently on long-term deals with 3 players (Reaves, Smart, and Hayes) slated to be given new deals with raises and two-way Nick Smith Jr. a new contract.

With the first apron for next season tentatively projected at $210 million, the Lakers should have $95 million in open cap space left after spending $115 million on the 9 players under contract, including Nick Smith Jr.
They plan to use that $95 million to sign RFA’s Walker Kessler, Peyton Watson, and Tari Eason, and UFA Robert Williams III. The Kessler trade should ultimately turn into a S&T involving Dalton Knecht and 3 picks.

Finally, the Lakers will also be looking to add critically important backups like Kelly Oubre, Jr. and Kris Middleton as unrestricted free agents from the NBA buyout market as teams approach the February trade deadline.

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REBUILDING LAKERS AROUND LUKA & AUSTIN!

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The Lakers plan to use their 3 first round picks and $100 million cap space to re-sign Austin Reaves, Marcus Smart, and Jaxson Hayes and steal RFA’s Walker Kessler, Tari Eason, and Peyton Watson with ‘Godfather’ offers.

That’s the kind of move fans should expect from the Mark Walter Lakers. While trades have become the NBA’s preferred path to rebuilding, building via free agency is faster and doesn’t cost matching salaries or draft picks.
No better way to ease concerns about the Lakers’ starting lineup’s defensive woes with a Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves backcourt than to surround them with three elite defenders that play with athleticism and physicality.

The Lakers plan to give the Jazz, Rockets, and Nuggets $100 million offers their teams would be unable or unwilling to match starting around $25 million per year for RFA’s Walker Kessler, Tari Eason, and Payton Watson.
To strengthen their defense and front court size, the Lakers should also sign Trailblazer UFA Robert Williams III, an elite rim protector and defender in space who’d be the perfect backup center to Walker Kessler,

Walker Kessler, Peyton Watson, and Tari Eason would give the Lakers starting lineup three elite two-way players with size, athleticism, and physicality to complement offense-first Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.
Meanwhile, Robert Williams III, Kelly Oubre Jr, and Kris Middleton should give the Lakers bench a massive boost both offensively and defensively. The Lakers’ 10-man rotation would be as deep and diverse as the Thunder.

Strategically, the Mark Walter Lakers plan to fast track a path to an NBA championship by using free agency instead of trades to rapidly build a deep and diverse roster without giving up draft capital or matching salaries.