Lakerholics

While the sample size is small and the competition subpar, the recent play of Lakers centers Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes is reminiscent of LA’s 2020 championship center rotation of Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee.

While they struggled at times during the first two thirds of the season, Ayton and Hayes made great strides over the last 17 games to the point where they’re stats are eerily similar to those of Howard and McGee. Deandre has finally accepted his role is to protect the rim and control the boards and Jaxson has finally learned how to use his verticality to become a defensive monster, averaging 3.2 blocks per game over the last 5 games.

For 2019-20 regular season, the Los Angeles Lakers were the West #1 seed with a record of 52–17 with the #11 offense, #3 defense, and #5 net rating. They ended up winning the NBA championship with an elite 16–5 record.
Meanwhile, this year’s Los Angeles Lakers have a lock on the West #3 seed with a record of 49–26 with the #5 offense, #10 defense, and #4 net rating over the last 17 games and on target to finish the regular season 55–27.

In 2019–20 regular season, Howard averaged 7.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.4 steals, and 1.1 blocks in 18.9 mpg while McGee averaged 6.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.5 steals, and 1.4 blocks in 16.6 mpg.
Over the last 17 games, Ayton averaged 10.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.4 steals, and 1.4 blocks in 25.1 mpg while Hayes averaged 8.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks in 20.4 mpg.

The dramatically improved play from Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes, who are suddenly playing like Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee, has been a major factor behind the Lakers’ sudden emergence as a true contender.

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CAVALIERS WILL BE FIRST TEST FOR AYTON/HAYES

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The first big test of the Lakers new and improved center rotation happens tonight when the Los Angeles and Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes face Cleveland and their center rotation of Evan Mobley and Jarett Allen.

The Cavs’ current center rotation starts 6′ 9″ 243 lb Jarrett Allen at center with 6′ 11″ 215 lb starting power forward Evan Mobley as the backup. Allen vs. Ayton and Hayes vs. Mobley will likely be the Cavs vs. Lakers matchup.
For the current season, Allen averaged 15.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.0 steals, and 0.9 blocks in 27.4 mpg while Mobley averaged 18.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.8 blocks in 32.2 mpg.

While the Lakers’ and Cavaliers’ center rotations are fairly even defensively, Cleveland’s center rotation is better offensively as it includes two starters whereas LA’s backup center Hayes comes off the bench. Combined, Allen/Mobley averaged 33.7 points, 17.5 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.8 steals, and 2.7 blocks in 59.6 mpg while Ayton/Hayes averaged 19.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.9 steals, and 2.9 blocks in 45.5 mpg.

The 49–26 Lakers are 2-point favorites at home over the 47–28 Cavaliers, who are currently the #4 seed in the East and have won 2 in a row and 7 of their last 10. The Lakers have won 3 in a row and 15 of their last 17 games.
The Cavs smoked the Lakers 129–99 back in late January but Los Angeles is a completely different team at this point. Both teams need to win and are engaged in intense battles for seeding in their respective conferences.

Cleveland’s strength is their Allen and Mobley front court so tonight will be a crucial test for the Lakers’ Ayton and Hayes center rotation. For Lakers to win, Deandre and Jaxson are going to have outplay more talented bigs.

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THUNDER WILL BE SECOND TEST FOR AYTON/HAYES

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The second test of the Lakers new and improved center rotation happens Thursday night when Los Angeles and Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes face OKC and their centers Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams.

The Thunder’s starts 7′ 0″ 250 lb Isaiah Hartenstein at center with 6′ 9″ 240 lb starting power forward Jaylin Williams as the backup. Hartenstein vs. Ayton and Hayes vs. Williams will likely be the Thunder/Lakers matchup.
For the season, Hartensten averaged 9.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.0 steals, and 0.7 blocks in 24.8 mpg while Williams averaged 7.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.5 steals, and 0.7 blocks in 20.0 mpg.

The Lakers’ and Thunder’s center rotations have similar offense and defense stats despite OKC’s center rotation including two starters while LA’s backup center comes off the bench. OKC has better playmaking centers.
Combined, Hartenstein/Williams averaged 16.8 points, 15.3 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.4 blocks in 44.8 mpg while Ayton/Hayes averaged 19.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.9 steals, and 2.9 blocks in 45.5 mpg.

The 49–26 Lakers will be favorites by 6.5 to 7.5 points at home over the 60–16 Thunder, who are currently the #1 seed in the West and have won 3 in a row and 9 of their last 10. Lakers have won 3 in a row and 15 of last 17.
The Thunder beat the Lakers 121–92 in November and 119–110 in February. Thursday night’s game in LA will be their third meeting. Fourth meeting will be in Oklahoma City on April 5th. Lakers must win 1 of last 2 vs. OKC.

OKC’s weakness is their artenstein/Williams front court so Thursday night will be a key second test for the Lakers’ Ayton/Hayes center rotation. Deandre and Jaxson will have to win the center battle for the Lakers to win.

Six Lakers — Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes — could leave LA as free agents this summer or win new contracts with strong post-season play in a deep playoff run.

Four weeks ago, the Lakers were desperately hanging onto the #6 seed with hopes of avoiding the play-in. While Reaves was in for a big payday, James, Smart, Kennard, Hachimura, and Hayes were all facing uncertain futures. Today, the Lakers have won 14 of last 16 including 5 wins over top-10 teams and a strong lead to lock up the #3 seed in the West. In that 16-game run, all six of the above Lakers have had strong offensive and defensive games.

The Lakers’ six-pack of veteran players who could end up leaving via free agency or winning new contracts with outstanding playoff performances includes three starters in Austin Reaves, LeBron James, and Marcus Smart.
Assuming they have a deep playoff run, the Lakers are expected to re-sign Reaves to a new contract and have interest in bringing back Smart, James, Kennard, Hachimura, Hayes but not Ayton, whom they plan to upgrade.

With a $165M salary cap less $75M in contracts, and $15M in roster holds, the Lakers could have as much as $75M in open cap space plus three first round picks to sign or S&T for other teams’ free agents next summer.
If ownership will pay the taxes, the Lakers could hard cap themselves at the $220M second apron. After $75M in contracts and $75M for other team’s free agents, the Lakers would still have $70M for their own free agents.

Let’s take a look at what each of these six Lakers’ players have done during the last four weeks to justify winning new contracts, how much they would cost to re-sign, and what they would bring to the team going forward.

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1. AUSTIN REAVES

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Austin Reaves will be eligible this summer to receive up to 5-years and $241M from the Lakers or 4-years and $180M from other teams. The Lakers certainly want to re-sign Reaves. The only question is for how much.

While Austin Reaves has been sensational, he still needs to prove he can do in the playoffs what he can do in the regular season. Even if he can do that, the Lakers could still decide they cannot afford to pay him a max salary.
Assuming Reaves and the team have an elite playoffs, the Lakers will likely ask Reaves to do the same as they’ll ask James to do, which is to agree to a team friendly deal so they can build a deep talented championship roster.

The Lakers have the leverage over Reaves as none of the teams with the cap space to sign Austin to a max deal next summer are legitimate contenders. Reaves has a situation with the Lakers that makes the money secondary.
The Lakers will need everybody to sacrifice to bring back Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, Rui Hachimura, and Jaxson Hayes and sign Peyton Watson and sign-and-trade for Walker Kessler.

For Austin Reaves, the sacrifice could mean accepting a 4-year $150M deal that starts at $35M per year with a player option for the 4th year. That would give Reaves a realistic shot at a legitimate max deal in 3 years.
James and Reaves willingly making sacrifices could give the team the financial resources needed to keep the current core together and add the elite starting 3&D wing and rim protecting defensive center they need.

Austin Reaves will need to be one of the driving forces behind a successful and deep playoff run by the Lakers to at least the conference finals. As a team leader, he will also need to accept a team friendly $35M contract.

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2. LEBRON JAMES

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Four weeks ago, the Lakers had little interest in LeBron James returning next season, preferring to have his $52M in cap space off the books so they could pursue coveted free agents Peyton Watson and Walker Kessler.

But then JJ Redick convinced LeBron James to agree to become the Lakers’ third option to make their Big Three work and allow developing superstar Austin Reaves to be the team’s second lead ball handler and playmaker.
LeBron playing off the ball and taking fewer but more efficient shots has been one of the major factors why the Lakers went 13–2 over last 15 games. That move has now put everybody on the Lakers team on the same page.

The Lakers have undergone a massive transformation the last 4 weeks. Luka has been playing like an MVP, Austin like an All-Star, and LeBron like the GOAT with top tier lock-down defense and high percentage offense.
The result is the Big Three everybody first envisioned but with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves unleashed to run the offense and LeBron James filling in with whatever skills and basketball tools the Lakers need to win each game.

While the Lakers cannot realistically give LeBron a max contract at 41, they could still sign him to a 1 or 2-year long contract for $15M to $20M per year to become their perfect “Jack-of-all-Trades’ and ‘Superstar Role Player.’
With James and Reaves taking the lead and taking less, the Lakers could conceivably have enough cap space to bring back all six of their free agents as well as adding two new high powered starters in Watson and Kessler.

LeBron James will need to continue to be the Lakers ‘Superstar Role Player’ helping to lead the Lakers to a deep run in the 2026 NBA Playoffs. He will also need to sacrifice by only taking $15M to $20M per year salary.

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3. MARCUS SMART

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One of the major keys to the Lakers success this season was Rob Pelinka’s gamble to sign point guard and former DPOY Marcus Smart and JJ Redick’s move to start him in a 3-guard lineup with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

After a couple of seasons on non-contending teams after being traded by Boston, Marcus Smart is finally healthy and playing at the same level that won him the 2022 DPOY. Smart’s the Lakers’ defensive leader and voice.
Marcus Smart’s elite point-of-attach defense and fearless clutch 3-point shooting have had a team-best impact on both the Lakers’ defense and offense. For the season, Marcus Smart has a team-best plus/minus of +238.

Defensively, Smart’s 110.9 defensive rating is team-best for the season. He is also 1st on the team and 2nd in the NBA in charges drawn, 3rd on the team with 1.4 steals per game, and 6th on team with 0.4 blocks per game.
Offensively, Marcus Smart’s 7.4 offensive rating is 6th best on team, his 9.5 points per game 6th best, his 2.8 assists per game 4th best, his 4.8 3-point attempts per game 3rd best, and his 1.5 3-point makes per game 4th best.

Moving forward, the Lakers will likely look to replace Smart in the starting lineup with a younger, bigger elite 3&D small forward like Peyton Watson, moving Marcus to backup point guard, which should be his ideal position.
While Smart will have suiters in free agency, he has no desire to chase a bigger salary vs. being on a championship caliber team. He will re-sign with Lakers for 3-years starting at $15M with 3rd year player option.

Marcus Smart will need to continue to stay healthy and show he can still play elite point-of-attack defense and hit his shots. Smart is the Lakers’ top priority free agent after Reaves and James. Smart wants to be a Laker.

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4. LUKE KENNARD

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While trading for Luke Kennard was the only move the Lakers made at the trade deadline, the trade triggered a transformation of the Lakers 3-point takes and makes in less than four weeks from a bottom-10 to top-5 team.

What Luke Kennard gave the Lakers was a 2nd dangerous high percentage, low volume 3-point shooter like Rui Hachimura for elite playmakers Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James to find for wide open threes.
While the Lakers efforts to turn Luke and Rui into volume 3-point shooters has not yet worked, the addition of Kennard and increase in 3-point takes and makes by Doncic have revolutionized LA’s 3-point shooting prowess.

Right now, Luke Kennard at 47.4% is the Lakers’ most accurate 3-point shooter and part of a six-pack of 3-ball shooters headed by Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, and LeBron James.
Over the Lakers last 16 games, those six players combined have been averaging 13.2 3-point makes on 33.6 3-point takes per game for 39.3%. As a team for that period, LA was #22 in 3PA, #16 in 3PM, and #7 in 3P%.

Luke Kennard will need to continue to shoot close to 50% from deep but also needs to raise his 3-point attempts from the current 3 per game to closer to 6 per game, which he’s done 3 times in his 9 years in the NBA.
Kennard’s value to the Lakers depends on whether he can become a volume 3-point shooter with Doncic, Reaves, and James feeding him. The Lakers prefer Luke shoot 6 threes per game @ 40% over 3 per game @ 50%.

While Luke doesn’t have a quick release and only pulls the trigger when he’s wide open, he will never be the high volume 3-point weapon that Luka is but he’s also not just a 3-point shooter but also a smart basketball player.
It’s not a coincidence that we’re seeing Kennard on the floor with the Lakers’ Big Three to close out games. Luke would likely have to trade years for money. Lakers would likely re-sign him for 3 years starting at $10M.

Luke Kennard will need to continue to shoot lights out from deep but with higher volume and be a positive factor to the team’s offense and defense. Luke’s a perfect fit for LA’s need for a high percentage 3-point shooter.

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5. RUI HACHIMURA

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Rui Hachimura probably faces the toughest challenge of the six veteran Lakers on or likely to be on expiring contracts to win a new contract due to his current $18M salary and his recent move from starter to the bench.

Rui has continued to be an elite high percentage 3-point shooter and has accepted the move to the bench well. While the Lakers wish Hachimura were more aggressive and better defensively, he’s been a valuable player.
Like Smart, coming off the bench will impact what the Lakers can pay Hachimura. Like Marcus, Rui will have to accept a new deal that reflects he’s no longer a starter but is also now on a potential championship team.

Despite how much Rui loves playing for the Lakers and being in LA, there’s a good possibility he’ll get an offer the Lakers cannot afford to beat. In the end, Rui needs the Lakers’ other potential returnees to all take a little less.
The other wild card when it comes to Hachimura is Mark Walter’s desire to make the Lakers and Dodgers global brands. Like with Ohtani, Hachimura being Japanese could be a factor when it comes down to a new contract.

The Lakers’ plan to steal Peyton Watson from the Nuggets doesn’t help Rui’s case for a new contract but a S&T of Vanderbilt, LaRavia, Knecht, Thiero ($25M), and three picks to the Jazz for center Walker Kessler $30M does.
The only problem with the Lakers’ signing-and-trading for Kessler is it hard caps them at the $209M first apron rather than the $222 second apron, which costs $13M in cap space, $5M of which we recover via the S&T.

Rui must continue to shine as a 3-point shooter coming off the bench and have a series of other dominoes fall his way to get a new contract. If the Lakers can pull off the Kessler sign-and-trade, Rui will remain a Laker

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6. JAXSON HAYES

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Jaxson Hayes’ dramatic recent improvement blocking shots and protecting the rim on defense to with his lethal vertical lob threat for Luka Doncic on offense guarantees the Lakers will award him a new long-term contract.

One of the big reasons the Lakers have totally turned their season around the last four weeks has been the play of their centers. Both Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes have elevated their games to an entirely new level.
Ayton has surprised everybody by suddenly buying in to just doing what the Lakers want: protect the rim, control the boards, and attack on offense. The only problem is he’s not the rim protector or floor stretcher LA wants.

Jaxson Hayes, on the other hand, is suddenly surprising everybody by blocking everything around the rim. During the first 58 games of the year, Jaxson averaged 0.4 steals and 0.6 blocks in 17.4 minutes per game.
During the 16 games since then, Hayes has averaged 0.6 steals and 1.4 blocks in 20.5 mpg. In the last 10 and 5 games, those numbers were 0.8 steals and 2.1 blocks in 20.8 mpg and 0.8 steals and 3.2 blocks in 24.1 mpg.

The difference has been amazing as Jackson appears to have finally figured out where to be when players drive to the hoop to that he can use his great leaping ability to block the shot. It’s been incredible to watch happen.
This is the kind of transformation you don’t even see during a player’s offseason when they have time to work on specific talents and skills. If Jax can continues protecting the rim like this, he’ll get $8M to $10M per year.

While the sample size is small, the improvement made by Jaxson Hayes as a shot blocker and rim protector is career changing. Jax will have to show he can it in the playoffs but if he does, he could be a Lakers game changer.

Despite a 3-point loss to the East leading Pistons that ended their 9-game win streak, the Lakers again showcasing their newfound championship culture by almost pulling off a stunning 16-point second half comeback.

Before the season, JJ Redick’s challenged every player on the Los Angeles Lakers to build a championship team culture by personally developing championship caliber conditioning, communication, and game habits. Looks like JJ Redick and his players walked the talk. After their first 58 games, the Lakers had #11 offense, #24 defense, and #19 net rating. Over the last 14 games, they had the #4 offense, #10 defense, and #5 net rating.

The Lakers are 14–4 in their last 14 games including 6–2 against top-10 teams like the Knicks, Timberwolves, Nuggets, Rockets (twice), and Heat with their only 4 losses coming from a combined total of just 14 points.
The championship habits that won the Lakers the West #3 seed were more assists, 3-point attempts, and 3-point makes and fewer turnovers on offense and more turnovers and fewer 3-point attempts, 3-point makes on defense.

Unlike their first game vs. the Pistons with Cade Cunningham back in December when the Lakers gave up after falling behind by double digits, the Lakers rallied multiple times this time to tie the game or take a lead.
The difference this time was the championship culture Redick has been able to instill in the Lakers, especially the championship habits of always playing hard, never giving up, and dominating ‘clutch’ time minutes.

The Lakers’ championship culture has transformed from a play-in team desperately hanging onto the #6 seed in the West to the presumed #3 seed in West and dangerous team no NBA team wants to meet in the playoffs.

If the Lakers continue to perform like a top-5 team the rest of the season and playoffs, their goal next summer could be to add finishing touches to a championship team rather than conducting an extreme roster makeover.

The Lakers’ top-5 play the last 4 weeks has dramatically transformed what was supposed to be a ‘gap’ year in their post-sale championship pursuit into a surprising legitimate opportunity to possibly go deep into the playoffs. Over the last 4 weeks, JJ Redick has the Lakers playing like an elite top-5 NBA team on both ends of the court. In fact, they have played so well they now have the 3rd best record in the West and 5th best record in the NBA.

The biggest winners of the Lakers’ dramatic turnaround are JJ Redick, who’s suddenly a legitimate candidate for Coach of the Year, and LeBron James, who’s suddenly found his ideal Lakers’ futugre as a role player.
The job JJ has done with this flawed Lakers’ roster is totally deserving of Coach of the Year and LeBron’s not only accepting but fully embracing being the Big Three’s third option is the move that made it all work.

If the Lakers have a deep playoff run this season, they may have to use more of their $60 to $80 million in cap space next summer to re-sign Austin Reaves, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes, and Luke Kennard.
Besides cap space, the Lakers will also have $25 million in tradable contracts and 3 first round picks to possibly trade for a new starting 3&D small forward and/or a new starting rim protecting, floor stretching center.

Imagine a Lakers team next season that starts Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Peyton Watson, LeBron James, and Walker Kessler with backups Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, Jake LaRavia, Rui Hachimura, and Jaxson Hayes.

The ability of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves to make big plays and close out games enabled the Lakers to win 21 of 27 ‘clutch’ games so far this season. The Lakers’ ‘Clutch-Ability’ is their secret weapon.

‘Clutch’ games happen when lead is 5 or less in last 5 minutes of game. In the 70 games they’ve played this season, the Lakers have the #1 ‘clutch’ offensive rating, #6 ‘clutch’ defensive rating, and #1 ‘clutch’ net rating. The 45–25 Lakers could easily have ended up with a a disappointing 35–35 record had they not dominated ‘clutch’ minutes. Their ‘Clutch-Ability’ not only kept their season alive but now offers a path to the championship.

After losing the last 3 of their first 58 games including two buzzer beaters, Redick made the decision for the Lakers to go into full playoff mode and they responded by winning 11 of their next 12 games with solid defense.
During those 12 games, the Lakers’ offense not only continued to be a juggernaut but the Lakers suddenly started to also play inspired defense, winning ‘clutch’ games vs. the Knicks, Wolves, Nuggets, and Rockets twice.

Right now, the Lakers are playing better than any team in the West other than the Thunder or Spurs, the two teams left ahead of them in standings. Their goal is to do the same in the next 12 games they did to the last 12.
While they won’t be able to catch #2 Spurs or #1 Thunder, the Lakers could finish 56–26 or 55–27 if they can replicate the last 12 games. Do that and Luka Doncic would likely win MVP and JJ Redick NBA Coach of the Year.

The Lakers’ recent elite 12 game streak not only catapulted them into the playoffs as dangerous opponents and possible favorites but could also have changed ownership’s minds about what they should do next summer.