Lakerholics

I’ve posted numerous articles on trade candidates whom the Lakers should consider targeting this offseason but have avoided looking at Fred VanVleet because he is free agent who is projected to attract offers in the $15 to 18 million per year range which is more than the $9.7 million non-taxpayer MLE, which is likely the max we could offer to an unrestricted free agent. Instead, I’ve focused my attention of high priced superstars on losing teams who might become candidates to be dumped to cut salaries and losses in a post coronavirus pandemic economy like Zach LaVine and Bradley Beal.

However, after a couple of writers including Lake Show Life’s Jonathan Kiernan started talking about the Lakers pursuing Fred VanVleet, I started looking at reasons why that might not be a bad idea. For one thing, VanVleet could be a better fit on the Lakers because he is not going to demand the touches and usage that a LaVine or Bradley would need. Also, he might be more attainable in a sign-and-trade than LaVine or Bradley would be in a trade because the Raptors realize they’re not going to get a superstar or raft of first round picks in return, which is exactly what the Bulls and Wizards would want for Zach or Bradley. As an undrafted 6′ 1″ combo guard, VanVleet is the typical overachiever as opposed to being the next superstar. He’s so underappreciated that the Raptors are unlikely to match a large salary for him despite the fact that he was a huge reason why Toronto won the championship. In fact, without him, despite all the injuries to the Warriors, the Raptors very likely would not have won that series.

What make VanVleet the perfect fit on the Lakers is his ability to fit their needs without taking away valuable touches for LeBron and AD because his usage last season was 22.0% compared to LaVine’s 31.2% or Beal’s 33.8%. With that limited usage, Fred was able to produce 17.6 points, 6.6 assists, and 3.8 rebounds per game. Slot him into the Lakers’ starting lineup and you suddenly have that desperately needed third scorer and second playmaker as well as a proven championship caliber clutch player who is still only 26-years old and has improved his major stats every year. Since he is a free agent, there’s no problem with the Lakers approaching him and offering him the opportunity to play with LeBron and AD and win more championships for as much money as he would be able to get from joining a losing team like the Hawks, Pistons, Suns, or Hornets, say $20 million per year for three years.

Toronto would be put in a tough position. They’re not going to pay Fred $20 million per year, which would guarantee they would be in the luxury tax soon as they gave Anunoby a raise to match Siakam. VanVleet could threaten to sign with one of the losing teams with cap space, which would mean the Raptors getting nothing, or Toronto could accept an offer of Kyle Kuzma, Danny Green, and our 2020 first round pick in a sign-and-trade. Suddenly, the Lakers could upgrade their starting lineup and roster for next year and add a valuable trading chip should Giannis actually become available the following summer. It would be a win-win-win deal for Fred, the Raptors, and the Lakers.

When opportunity knocks, great players and teams answer. That’s how legacies are built. We all knew when the Lakers signed 35-year old LeBron James that the clock was clicking and LeBron’s and the Lakers’ championship window was not as long as the four-year contract he signed. The fact that he would be 39-years old and had a player option in the last year of that contract pretty much limited the King’s and the Lakers championship window to a maximum of three years.

After James’ injury and failure to consummate the trade for Anthony Davis cost the Lakers the first year of that contract, it became critical to LeBron and the Lakers that they win a championship in the second year of James’ contract or risk seeing that window close as his age increased and opportunity diminished. Then, after enduring the untimely death of team icon Kobe Bryant and right when the Lakers had peaked and took over the top spot in most of the league power rankings by defeating their two nemises Bucks and Clippers back-to-back, Rudy Gobert tested positive for Covid-19 and the NBA suspended the 2019-20 season. Suddenly, it looked like the second year of James’ four-year contract might go the same way as the first year.

But after two months of shelter-in-place and social distancing, it appears that the NBA has a good chance to resume the season in late July and finish the turbulent year with playoffs lasting until late September, meaning hopes of LeBron, AD, and the Lakers to win their 17th NBA championship is still alive. What’s become clear during the two month hiatus from games, however, is just how critical winning this championship could be the future legacies of LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Los Angeles Lakers. To put it simply, this is a must win season for LeBron, AD, and the Lakers. It’s an opportunity that almost was lost and now, that it’s back on the table, it’s an opportunity they cannot afford to miss as doing so could derail the future legacies of all of them.

While losing could lead to future struggles to remain elite, winning the championship would unlock doors to greatness. LeBron could take a major step at changing his destiny to be recognized not only as one of the greats of the Lakers franchise but also help him surpass Michael Jordan at the GOAT. Anthony Davis could take over the lead as the NBA superstar most likely to rule the decade of the 2020’s like his teammate James ruled as the best player on the planet for the decade of the 2010’s. And the Los Angeles Lakers could not only tie but also set the stage to supplant the Boston Celtics as the NBA franchise with the most championships in the history of the league. If there’s a path to the Lakers convincing Giannis Antetokounmpo to join them as a free agent two offseasons from now, winning this season’s championship is the key that unlocks that door.

The age old mantra of win or go home clearly applies to LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Los Angeles Lakers this season. They’re at one of those key moments and critical turning points. Losing would put their joint legacy at risk while winning would unlock the door to greatness.

Zion Williamson is the last of my six candidates to become the best player of the 2020’s decade. Probably the most celebrated NBA rookie since LeBron James was drafted 17 years ago, Zion has a similar combination of otherworld athleticism and brutal physicality. At 280 lbs, he’s like Shaq in a power forward’s body with the handle and stroke of a shooting guard. His freakish body not only promises a level of play few in league history have been able to reach but also legitimate concern over whether he can remain healthy considering his weight and style of play.

As we’ve discussed when reviewing Giannis, Kawhi, KD, AD, and Luka, winning honors as the best player of the decade requires three things: consistent MVP performances, great health and durability, and a handful of championship rings. For a athletic marvel like Zion, the first certainly seems possible while the second and third may become his handicaps. Despite a great rookie season, injuries prevented him from legitimately being in consideration of ROY honors. And while David Griffin has done an admirable job surrounding Zion with more talent than most #1 draft picks enjoy, the truth is winning championships may be hard to do for a small market franchise like New Orleans Pelicans.

One of the big surprises for Zion’s rookie season was has ability to shoot the ball. In college, he shot a mediocre 33.7% from deep and a poor 64.0% from the line, raising concern over whether he would be able to shoot well enough to become a generational superstar in the NBA. To everybody’s surprise, Zion shot an amazing 46.2% from deep. Unfortunately, his poor 64.5% shooting from the line probably indicates that his elite three-point shooting may be an outlier, which further muddies the waters as to how good Zion can eventually become.

To prevail as the best player of the 2020’s decade, Zion will probably have to dominate the second half of the decade as most young superstars have difficulty winning in their first five years in the league. The challenge is especially tough for the Pelicans as they’re in the West and have to deal with the Lakers and Clippers and a host of well-stocked playoff teams. I hope Zion can remain healthy but it could be difficult for a high flying 280 pounder who plays recklessly above the rim. But if the young talent Griffin has assembled around him develops as hoped, he will have a shot to become a transcendent superstar and compete for best player on the planet for the next decade.

While the 21-year old Luka Doncic may lack the otherworldly athleticism of LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, or Anthony Davis, the numbers he is putting up in just his second year in the league tell an entirely different story. There may not be another young superstar who has as savvy or well rounded offensive game. He has the size of Magic Johnson, the shooting touch of Steph Curry, and the passing ability of Jason Kidd. And while he has played pro ball since he was in his teens, he is just getting started.

His biggest hurdles may be that he does not have a legitimate co-superstar, plays for the Dallas Mavericks, and has several more athletic and flashy superstar competitors in the Western Conference. And he’s white and not an explosive athlete. The big question is how high is his ceiling and can he rack up the championship rings you need to become the best player of the 2020’s decade?

Ignoring Luka could be a big mistake as he could develop into the next Larry Bird and surprise everybody. He is that savvy and smart of a competitor with marvelous skills. To me, he is the closest thing I’ve seen to Larry Bird to come around. There is just something about his confidence and competitiveness that reminds me of Larry. I still think he’s a long shot to be player of the decade and could end up being stuck in Dallas for his entire career.

Of all the superstars we’ve talked about possibly joining the Lakers someday, Luka tops my list. When LeBron retires, the Lakers will need a great point guard who can do what LeBron does for AD and the perfect candidate is Luka Doncic. Luke will be in his mid 20’s when he has his first chance to become a free agent. AD would be in his early 30’s. They would be a match made in heaven in my opinion. Kind of like a reincarnation of LeBron James as far as skills and smarts.

While I am obviously biased as a Lakers fan who’s just been overwhelmingly impressed watching AD dominate at both ends of the court playing alongside LeBron, I firmly believe Anthony is the favorite to win the mantle of best player of the 2020’s decade. My three critical criteria – age, injuries, and championships – all work in Davis’ favor.

At just 27, Anthony should be in his prime through most of this decade. While suffering minor dings, he has also not suffered any major injuries. That gives him a huge advantage over the older and more injury prone Durant and Leonard. AD could easily play through his late 30’s just like LeBron because his game is one based on skill and talent as much as otherworldly athleticism and physicality.

Finally, championships. This is where playing for the Lakers and with LeBron becomes a huge plus. There’s a good reason 6 of ESPN’s top ten NBA superstars were Lakers and why the franchise has won 16 championships. I believe AD could win 2 or 3 rings with LeBron in the first half of the decade and chances are the Lakers will pair him with another superstar or two for the second half of the decade.

Bottom line, if the Lakers dominate this decade, Anthony Davis will be the favorite to win take the best player of the decade crown from LeBron James for the 2020’s. His only legitimate competition could be Giannis Antetokounmpo, but only if he ends up joining AD on the Lakers.