Lakerholics

The Los Angeles Lakers’ impressive back-to-back wins over the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Clippers before coronavirus stopped play provided the blueprint they need to follow to win their 17th NBA championship.

While there are wild card games where good teams will win or lose the battle of the boards, assists, turnovers, points in the paint, fast break points, or other metrics, championship teams usually develop a winning formula. Reviewing the stats from their statement wins over the Bucks and Clippers before the league suspended play highlights the four points the Lakers should adopt as their blueprint for winning a 17th NBA championship:

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1. Put the Focus on Defense.

The key to the Lakers’ wins over the Bucks and Clippers was defense and that needs to be their focus to win their record 17th NBA championship. Those two wins were proof defense still wins championships in the NBA.

It’s not a coincidence the five teams with the best win-loss records in the NBA— the Bucks, Lakers, Raptors, Clippers, and Celtics — also happen to be the five teams who possessed the best defensive ratings in the league. The three-month disruption of the season due to the coronavirus pandemic combined with all games now being played at a neutral site in Orlando guarantees defense will be an even bigger factor during this year’s playoffs.

While the Lakers’ 104.7 offensive rating against the Bucks and Clippers was lower than their 4th-ranked 112.6 for the season, their elite 96.3 defensive rating for the two wins clearly bested their 3rd-ranked 105.5 for the season. Though they shot a poor 43.3% from the field and 23.9% from deep versus season averages of 48.5% and 35.5%, the Lakers won both games, holding the Bucks and Clippers to 40.6% from the field and 25.7% from deep.

The blueprint for the Lakers to win their 17th NBA championship and tie the Celtics for most in the NBA starts with playing the same elite defense they played back in March when they dominated the Bucks and Clippers.

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2. Play More Small Ball.

One of the strategic adjustments helping the Lakers beat the Bucks and Clippers was going small with Anthony Davis or Markieff Morris at the five instead of traditional low post centers JaVale McGee or Dwight Howard.

Playing small ball almost 50% the time in the two games versus just 42% during the season, the Lakers were able to counter the Bucks’ and Clippers’ drop coverage and create open lanes for LeBron and AD to attack the paint. While they did not shoot well from beyond the arc, the Lakers’ small ball attack did succeed in spreading the opposing defenses to allow James and Davis to successfully attack the rim, especially in the fourth quarter.

Not surprisingly, four of five-man lineups with the highest net ratings used by the Lakers in the two games against the Bucks and Clippers were small ball lineups featuring Anthony Davis or Markieff Morris playing stretch five. As expected, the two five-man lineups used most by the Lakers in the fourth quarter of those games featured Davis or Morris at the five and averaged 118.85 offensively and 74.65 defensively for an elite net rating of 44.2.

The Lakers’ strategy all season was for JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard to cover most of the center minutes to keep Anthony Davis fresh and healthy for the playoffs and then to unleash him at the five once the playoffs began.

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3. Dominate the Second Half.

Knowing how to finish games has always been a key to winning in the NBA and the Los Angeles Lakers’ second half domination against the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Clippers was integral to their winning those games.

As is the case with many hard fought games, especially in the playoffs, the first halves of the Bucks’ and Clippers’ games were close, with the Lakers and Bucks tied 48–48 and the Lakers trailing the Clippers 53–49 at the half. But in both games, the Lakers came out, took control, and dominated the second halves to win comfortably, outscoring the Bucks 65–55 to seal the 113–103 win and outscoring the Clippers 63–50 to cinch a 112–103 win.

The Lakers’ impressive second half 121.9 offensive rating, 101.0 defensive rating, and 20.9 net rating for the two games confirmed their domination of the Bucks and Clippers in major statement games versus their top rivals. After shooting just 36.4% from the field and 14.3% from deep in the first half, of the two games, the Lakers rebounded to finish strong, shooting 50% from the field and 34.4% from deep in the second halves to win going away.

The ability to build and hold a lead in the second halves of games is one of the characteristics of championship teams and one the Los Angeles Lakers, with their two superstars and veteran supporting cast, clearly possess.

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4. Win the Superstar Battle.

Championships in professional basketball always seem to come down to which team wins the battle of the superstars and there is no better superstar duo in today’s NBA than the Lakers’ LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

The Lakers’ comfortable victories over the Bucks and Clippers in their most recent matchups clearly demonstrated why James and Davis were a better superstar duo than Antetokounmpo and Middleton or Leonard and George. For the two games, LeBron averaged 32.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists with an elite 84.0 defensive rating while AD averaged 30.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.0 assists with an excellent 102.2 defensive rating.

In the win against the Bucks, LeBron James and Anthony Davis combined for 67 points, 17 rebounds, and 8 assists while Giannis Antetokounmpo and Chris Middleton combined for only 44 points, 16 rebounds, and 10 assists. In the win against the Clippers, LeBron James and Anthony Davis combined for 58 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists while Kawhi Leonard and Paul George matched their 58 points but only posted 8 rebounds and 3 assists.

Superstars win championships and the Lakers duo is the best on the planet. Leading the Lakers to their 17th NBA championship would catapult LeBron James and Anthony Davis into consideration as the best due in NBA history.

The Los Angeles Lakers could have a unique opportunity to steal a top free agent this offseason due to a perfect storm of events that could give several elite players leverage to force their teams to make sign-and-trade deals.

The key events unlocking this opportunity for the Lakers teams are the presence of teams unwilling to reward their free agents and the absence of winning teams with the cap space to sign them as unrestricted free agents. The only way for these free agents to get paid what they’re worth and end up playing for a winning team is to use the threat of signing as free agents to force their teams to sign-and-trade them to avoid losing them for nothing.

Because all of these players are unrestricted free agents, there are no rules preventing the Lakers from contacting their agents and offering more than their teams would be willing to pay to set the stage for a sign-and-trade. With Kyle Kuzma’s rookie contract, $20 million in expiring contracts, and their 2020 first round pick, the Lakers have exactly what teams looking to avoid long term commitments would want to make a sign-and-trade deal.

Here are the four top free agents the Lakers could steal with sign-and-trade deals. All four are proven young players with upside who could be valuable trading chips in a future sign-and-trade deal for an available superstar.

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1. Toronto Raptors Point Guard Fred Van Fleet

Fred VanVleet is a 26-year old point guard who averaged 17.6 points, 6.6 assists, and 3.8 rebounds in 35.8 minutes per game for the Toronto Raptors. He earned $9.3M last year and should see that jump to $15M to $18M.

VanVleet would fill the Lakers need for a 3rd scorer and 2nd playmaker. Lakers could offer Fred $21M per year for 3 years in a sign-and-trade for Kyle Kuzma ($2M), Danny Green ($15M), and their 2020 first round pick.

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2. Brooklyn Nets Shooting Guard Joe Harris

Joe Harris is a 28-year old shooting guard who averaged 13.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.1 assists in 30.9 minutes per game for the Brooklyn Nets. He earned $7.7M last year and should see that jump to $12M to 15M.

Harris is an elite 3-point shooter who’d fill the Lakers need for a 3rd scorer. Lakers could offer Joe $18M per year for 3 years in a sign and trade deal for Kyle Kuzma ($2M), Danny Green ($15M), and their 2020 first round pick.

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3. Detroit Pistons Power Forward Christian Wood

Christian Wood is a 24-year old power forward who averaged 13.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.0 assist in 21.4 minutes per game for the Detroit Pistons. He earned $1.6M last year and that could jump to $15M to $18M.

Wood is the biggest gamble but also has potential to be a star. The Lakers could offer Christian $20M per year for 3 years in a sign-and-trade for Kyle Kuzma ($2M), Danny Green ($15M), and their 2020 first round pick.

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4. Los Angeles Clippers Power Forward Montrezl Harrell

Montrezl Harrell is a 26-year old power forward who averaged 18.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.7 assists in 27.8 minutes per game for the LA Clippers. He earned $6M last year and that could jump to $18M to $20M.

Harrell is a Klutch Sports client and top candidate for 6MOY. The Lakers could offer Montrezl $22M per year for 3 years in a sign-and-trade for Kyle Kuzma ($2M), Danny Green ($15M), and their 2020 first round pick.

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The Miami Heat and perennial losing teams like the Atlanta Hawks, Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, Charlotte Hornets, and Phoenix Suns are the only NBA teams with the cap space to sign a $20M free agent this offseason. That means top free agent players like Fred VanVleet, Joe Harris, Christian Wood, and Montrezl Harrell are going to have to get creative if they want to get paid and play for an NBA team with a chance to win a championship.

While the Raptors, Nets, Pistons, and Clippers have Bird rights to sign VanVleet, Harris, Wood, and Harrell, the Pistons are the only team that is likely to offer a market value contract to their talented young free agent. That opens the door for the Lakers and other playoff teams to steal one of these young stars by offering their team the opportunity to get something back via a sign-and-trade instead of losing the player for nothing.

With revenues plummeting due the Covid-19 pandemic and recession, the rich teams in the NBA are just going to get richer and the poor teams poorer. This offseason, the Lakers will be hungry sharks on the prowl.

Barring a devastating reignition of the coronavirus pandemic, the good news is the NBA is going to resume the season. The bad news, however, is nobody knows what the resumption of the season is going to look like.

Fortunately, it looks like we’re not going to have to wait much longer to find out exactly how, where, and when the league will resume the season as the Board of Governors will approve plans to proceed this coming Thursday. The league surveyed teams’ general managers whether to finish the regular season with more games, conduct a play-in tournament, or go straight into the playoffs and whether to seed the playoffs or stick with conferences.

While nobody knows for sure what Adam Silver will recommend, Twitter is flooded with rumors as to what his plan will include. Using that info and common sense, here’s my take on what Silver’s plan might look like:

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What do we know?

1. The teams are ready to approve the plan commissioner Adam Silver recommends. The owners understand this a challenging time for the league and completely trust Silver to make right decisions.
   
2. The season is scheduled to resume on Friday, July 31st, which gives the league time both to prepare to play as well as time to finish the playoffs and offseason in time to start next season on Christmas Day.
   
3. Disney World in Orlando appears to be the likely venue for all games to be played to create a controlled bubble where players, coaches, key personnel, and their families can be safely isolated and protected.

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What can we surmise?

1. There’s a good chance there will be some form of play-in tournament, most likely involving the two teams holding the eighth playoff slot in each conference and the six teams who are within six games of them.
   
2. There’s a good chance playoff teams will be seeded 1–16 based on record regardless of conference since five of the six team within six games of a playoff spot are in the West and only one in the East.

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What remains unknown?

1. Whether there will be additional regular season games to meet the 70-game minimum on team local television contracts since most teams had only played 63 to 66 games before the season was suspended.
   
2. Whether playoff rules will be changed so teams can carry two-way players in addition to the 15 players on the roster and whether teams can designate more than the 13 players to be active for games.

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Who wins and who loses?

1. The winners would be the six teams — Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, Suns, and Wizards — who get a shot at making the playoffs and the Lakers, who will be in a separate bracket from the Bucks and Clippers.
   
2. The Losers would be the Grizzlies and Magic, who instead of making the playoffs would now have to participate in an 8-team play-in tournament and the Bucks and Clippers who will be in the same bracket.