Lakerholics

While basketball experts would think it crazy to change starters after just two games, the Lakers’ starting lineup has been a statistical nightmare in the season restart with just six games remaining before the playoffs begin.

While a veteran coach like Frank Vogel is unlikely to make a drastic move, all five Lakers’ starters posted negative net ratings while all five Lakers’ reserves had positive net ratings the first two games of the season restart. While the Lakers won’t make wholesale changes to their starting lineup, it would be foolish for the coaching staff to ignore this red flag and not start considering possible changes in who starts or at least in minutes played.

After all, the clock is ticking and the Lakers only have six more regular season ‘seeding’ games to make changes to get ready for the playoffs. Here are the Lakers’ player net rating for first two games per NBA.com:

The challenge for Frank Vogel and his staff is to create a starting lineup that complements superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, which requires more than anything else players who can hit open shots and play defense. From the above stats, we can see the problem with the Lakers’ starting lineups the last two games was offense, not defense. Per NBA.com, Lakers’ starters had a poor 66.7 offensive rating and good 102.2 defensive rating.

The Lakers’ 3-point shooting stats the last two games confirms the problem. As a team, the Lakers’ shot just 27.6% from deep, 29th worst out of 30 teams. Opponents scored 27 more points from deep in the last two games. The Lakers’ poor 3-point shooting allowed the Clippers and the Raptors to clog the middle and keep LeBron James and Anthony Davis from getting to the rim, which was a big factor leading to their subpar performances.

Lakers’ superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis as a duo average 52.1 points per game on 50.1% from the field but in the last two games were held to just 42.0 points per game and just 38.3% field goal percentage. While it’s easy to write off the outcome as James and Davis having subpar games, the truth is the poor shooting performances of their teammates in the Lakers’ starting lineup was likely the reason for their subpar games.

So what are the options the Lakers’ coaching staff should consider? The obvious solution is surround LeBron and AD with better shooting. Here are Lakers’ players 3-point shooting stats the last two games per NBA.com:

It’s obvious the problem with the starting lineup the last two games has been the shooting of guard Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Combined, the two have made only 6 of 28 threes for a dismal 21.4%. Caldwell-Pope and Green are the Lakers’ best 3-point shooters so it would be foolish to replace them as starters but the team shouldn’t hesitate to put them on a short lease or fewer minutes if they continue to shoot poorly.

The NBA is a copycat league and the problem facing the Lakers is teams are going to increasingly clog the middle and challenge the Lakers to make shots from beyond the arc so 3-point shooting is going to become critical. The Lakers cannot afford to give players who aren’t shooting well extended time to fix the problem. The playoffs are right around the corner, which means Green and Caldwell-Pope need to start hitting their threes right now.

Should Green or KCP continue to miss their threes, Frank Vogel should not hesitate to start or give Dion Waiters more minutes. While he’s only shot 3 of 12 from deep so far, he’s been a 37.7% 3-point shooter the last two years. While the Lakers envisioned Waiters as the playmaker and shot creator for the second unit when LeBron rests, Dion has posted a better two-player net rating with both James and Davis than either Green or Caldwell-Pope.

Finally, the other option the Lakers have should consider if KCP and/or Green don’t start hitting their threes is moving Anthony Davis to the five to replace JaVale McGee and inserting Kyle Kuzma into the starting lineup. Kuz has already earned a role in the Lakers closing rotation and is playing the second most minutes after LeBron. At some point, Kuzma and Waiters are going to become key players in the Lakers championship quest.s0-

Frank Vogel’s been steadfast in keeping the same starting lineup all year but the playoffs are different and the Lakers need to watch Green’s and KCP’s shooting woes closely and adjust sooner rather than later if necessary.

While the Lakers’ LeBron James and Anthony Davis were outplayed by the Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Lakers were still able to eke out a 103–101 victory because of the play of Kyle Kuzma and Dion Waiters.

While it’s just one game, the top-rated two-player lineup who played more than 20 minutes for the Lakers in Thursday night’s opening season restart game against the Clippers was the duo of Dion Waiters and Kyle Kuzma. That’s right. Dion Waiters and Kyle Kuzma. Better than LeBron James and any other Lakers player. Better than Anthony Davis and any other Lakers player. In fact, far better than even LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Waiters and Kuzma’s net rating of 36.5 (offensive rating of 131.8 less defensive rating of 95.3) was the best of the six Lakers’ two-player lineups that were on the court for more than 20 minutes against the Clippers.

Here’s the Lakers two-player lineup results from NBA.com:

We wrote a few days ago ‘How Kuzma and Waiters Breaking Out Could Change Lakers’ Offseason Plans!’ and Thursday night’s game showed just how critical Kyle Kuzma and Dion Waiters could be in the Clippers win. Despite a subpar game from LeBron (other than his last minute heroics on offense and defense) and the Clippers outscoring the Lakers by 15 points from deep, Kuzma and Waiters were key factors in the team’s triumph.

To produce a game best Lakers two-player net rating of 36.5, Dion Waiters and Kyle Kuzma obviously had to have equally impressive individual games both offensively and defensively, which is exactly what they each did. Waiters posted a team best net rating of 36.5 (offensive rating of 131.8 less defensive rating of 95.3) while Kuzma contributed a team third best net rating of 22.8 (offensive rating of 116.4 less defensive rating of 101.5).

Here are the advanced player stats for Waiters and Kuzma from NBA.com:

The continued stellar play off the bench by Kyle Kuzma and Dion Waiters has helped fill the Lakers’ desperate roster need from earlier in the season to find a missing third scorer, second playmaker, and elite wing defender. The impact Waiters and Kuzma had in the Lakers big win over the Clippers is confirmed by their team best and second best plus/minus ratings for the game. Waiters posted a +17 and Kuzma a +12 plus/minus for the game.

Here are the traditional player stats for Waiters and Kuzma from NBA.com:

Kyle Kuzma posted 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists in 32 minutes with a team second best +12 plus/minus while hitting 4 of 8 (50%) from the field, 4 of 7 (57%) from beyond the arc, and 4 of 5 (80%) on the free throw line. Kuzma’s impact went beyond offense as he emerged as the Lakers best defender against Kawhi Leonard in the second half, holding him to just 1 of 5 from the field and forcing him to get rid of the ball numerous times.

Dion Waiters contributed 11 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists in 21 minutes with a team best +17 plus/minus while shooting 5 of 10 (50%) from the field despite only hitting 1 of 6 (17%) threes and not getting to the line. Waiters ability to beat his man and get into the paint caused havoc to the Clippers’ defense and continued the guard’s campaign to earn a permanent spot in the Lakers rotation not only for this season and but going forward.

The coronavirus bubble has transformed the 2019–20 NBA season into an unprecedented challenge that’s given Kyle Kuzma and Dion Waiters golden opportunities that they might never have had to become unsung heroes. Fortunately for the Lakers, they both seem to be relishing the challenge.

Fans of the triumphant Lakers and shorthanded Clippers both had good reasons to be excited about how their teams played in last night’s season restart but the game’s biggest takeaway was the evolution of Kyle Kuzma.

We noted how Kuzma was finally healthy, had fixed his broken 3-point shot, and was now featuring higher percentage spot-up threes vs. more difficult threes off the bounce but last night he showcased his refocused defense. Kyle’s elite individual defense on Kawhi Leonard, especially in the second half, was as important to the Lakers 103–101 win as his 16 points, 7 boards, 2 dimes, and 4 of 7 shooting from deep in 31.7 starter level minutes.

That Kuz played the third most minutes after LeBron James and Anthony Davis and was on the floor for all of the fourth quarter except for 82 seconds showed how critical Vogel thought he was to the Lakers’ victory. While Vogel gave Kyle a brief rest with 3:51 left in the game, he rushed him back with just 2:29 left to finish the game with LeBron and AD, a vote of confidence by the coach of the need for Kuzma to close the game.

But Vogel wasn’t rushing Kuzma back in the game because of his offense. He wanted Kuz to close the game because of his defense, specifically against Clippers’ superstar Kawhi Leonard, who traditionally torches the Lakers. “Exceptional tonight. He’s had some other strong performances. I don’t know if it was the best. It’s right up there. But in particular, when he was switched onto Kawhi, he had some good possessions,” said coach Vogel.

So what does this mean for the Lakers? First, the evolution of Kyle Kuzma’s game at both ends of the court says he may have finally found the blueprint for how to succeed playing alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Coach Frank Vogel was ecstatic about Kuzma’s performance alongside LeBron and AD. “When we have A.D. at the five, if he can perform like that on the defensive end, we’re going to win a lot of games,” Vogel said.

The big problem Kyle Kuzma’s struggled with since the Lakers traded for Anthony Davis last summer was how to fit in a lineup when the Lakers had superstar starters at the small and power forward positions he played. Ironically, the solution the Lakers could be forced to adopt is moving Anthony Davis from power forward to center to make room for Kyle Kuzma at power forward, which ultimately could make the Lakers a better team.

While Vogel will continue to start JaVale McGee at center and give Dwight Howard minutes at the five, there’s no question the Lakers need more Anthony Davis at the five against elite teams like the Bucks and Clippers. Just like back in March when the Lakers took down the Buck and Clippers in a weekend sweep, AD played half of the game’s 48 minutes and 24 of his 35 minutes at center, usually with Kyle Kuzma alongside him at the four.

Beyond making the Lakers better built to compete against the Bucks and Clippers, the evolution of Kyle Kuzma offensively and defensively could negate the need for the Lakers to seek a blockbuster trade this offseason.

Now that the four month coronavirus hiatus is finally over and professional basketball is back, here’s a short list of what Lakers fans should be looking for in tonight’s season restart game between the LA Lakers and LA Clippers:

1. Who wins the battle of the superstars?

Lakers superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis looked to be in mid-season form in the two scrimmages they played while Clippers superstar Kawhi Leonard shot just 32% from the field and 27% from beyond the arc. How well each team’s superstars play will likely determines who wins the last regular season matchup between the Lakers and the Clippers. The key to watch will be who on each team defends the other team’s superstars.

2. Who wins the battle of the role players?

The Lakers lost Avery Bradley to family issues and Rajon Rondo to injury but replaced them with Dion Waiters and JR Smith while the Clippers will be missing services of Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, and Patrick Beverley. Should the teams’ superstars battle to a standoff, the Lakers should have a big advantage when it comes to role players considering how important Williams, Harrell, and Beverley have been to the Clippers’ success.

3. Who wins the battle of the coaching staffs?

Doc Rivers is considered to be one of the top head coaches in the NBA and has done an outstanding job juggling lineups and rotations as the Clippers deployed extensive load management for Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Frank Vogel has also done an excellent job as Lakers head coach and had the team peaking with a back-to-back weekend sweep of the Bucks and Clippers before the shut down as he outcoached Budenholzer and Rivers.

4. Who cares more about winning the game?

The Lakers are going to want to even up the season series with the Clippers at two games apiece while the Clippers are more likely to see the game as not important and focus on the playoffs since they will be shorthanded. LeBron, AD, and the Lakers will want to send a message about how serious they are about winning this championship so it would not be surprising to see them make this a statement game and rout the Clippers tonight.