Lakerholics

With Anthony Davis playing like a one-man wrecking crew, the starting lineup kicking butt, and the defense clamping down like a vise, the Lakers rediscovered their mojo and revived their bubble championship hopes.

The 111–88 rout of the Blazers was the first time in the bubble the Lakers played at the level they had been playing back in March before the Covid-19 suspension when they swept the Bucks and Clippers in back-to-back games. The bubble has been an inspired revelation for some teams and nightmare scenario for others. For a while, it looked as if the Lakers had fallen into the latter category as they struggled to play close to a championship level.

Their starting lineup was hemorrhaging large leads, their superstars were looking mortal, and their 3-point shooting had all but disappeared. After losing Game 1 to the Blazers, the Lakers looked to be in deep trouble. Fortunately, losing that first playoff game to the Blazers was the best thing that could have happened to the Lakers as it set the alarm bells ringing, rudely woke them up, and empowered them to rediscover their lost mojo.

This win followed the same blueprint the Lakers deployed to exert their superiority back in March, including a dominant Anthony Davis, an inspired team defense, and a big-game urgency and shared next-man-up mentality. Unlike in Game 1, Davis dominated Nurkic and Whiteside with help from McGee and Howard, the Lakers’ defense shut down Lillard and McCollum, and their midrange, 3-point, and free throw shots finally started to fall.

The Lakers clearly played their best game in the bubble, posting a 30-point lead over the Blazers and 88–58 score at the end of the third quarter, which allowed them to rest their starters and key reserves in the fourth quarter. Besides a dominating defense that held Lillard to 18 points on 1 of 7 from deep and McCollum to 13 points on 1 of 5 from deep, the Lakers were led by an unstoppable Anthony Davis who scored 31 points in 29 minutes.

And orchestrating all of it was 35-year old LeBron James, who focused his energy on being an elite playmaker and team defender rather than scorer and picked his moments to inspire with his elite passing and leadership. What has to be scary and disheartening for the Blazers is the Lakers didn’t need LeBron to play like a superstar to dominate this game, not that his 10 points, 6 boards, and 7 assists and solid defense and command didn’t help.

The reality is the Lakers showed why they’re a legitimate championship contender while the Blazers are simply a good team with two great guards that’s just a notch above a normal 8th seed destined to lose in five games. It’s doubtful we’ll see another game in this series where Portland outscores LA by 24 from three and Lillard and McCollum outscore the Lakers guards by 44, which is what the Blazers needed to eke out a 7-point Game 1 win.

Now that the Lakers have rediscovered their mojo and figured out how to win in the bubble, they need to keep their pedal to the metal and come out ready to take care of business and dominate as they run the gauntlet. The path to the bubble championship will be the most difficult in league history and will likely force the Lakers to go through the Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, and Milwaukee Bucks.

But what the Lakers showed last night in the rout of the Blazers is they are close to unstoppable when James and Davis play their best, their defense clamps down, and their shooters shoot a reasonable percentage. And that is the blueprint for the Lakers winning their 17th NBA championship

Despite being the most polarizing player on the Lakers, the return of Rajon Rondo from injury could be the missing catalyst that triggers head coach Frank Vogel to make substantive changes to the Lakers’ starting lineup.

Rondo could not only give the Lakers desperately needed playmaking when LeBron was on the bench but also when playing alongside him to relieve his playmaking load and allow him to focus more on attacking to put up points. In addition to their shooting woes, the Lakers have seen LeBron’s individual scoring decrease significantly as his playmaking responsibilities increased, which Rondo could help alleviate both playing with and without James.

While Rondo’s lack of 3-point shooting gravity is not a great fit as a starter, his elite performances in 3 games this year and 4 playoff games two years ago against the Trail Blazers make a strong case to consider starting him. There’s no question he has the respect, confidence, and trust of head coach Frank Vogel and superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and has shown in the past he’s capable of elevating his performance in the playoffs.

Rondo averaged 7.7 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 4.3 assists in 15.6 minutes in the Lakers’ 3 games against Portland while shooting 69.2% from the field, 60.0% from deep, and 100% from the line with 4.7 +/- and 15.3 net rating. In the playoffs against Portland, he averaged 11.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 13.3 assists in 35.4 minutes while shooting 48.7% from the field, 42.9% from deep, and 80.0% from the line with 10.5 +/- and 13.7 net rating.

While Vogel’s likely to stick with his current starting lineup for tonight’s game, there’s a good chance he’ll give Rondo some minutes off the bench to see how he performs and if his playmaking could help when LeBron is out. Vogel may also give Rondo minutes alongside James to see if freeing LeBron from playmaking could give the Lakers a scoring boost by unleashing his offense. If that works, then Vogel might even consider starting Rajon.

Deciding to start Rajon Rondo presents Frank Vogel with several challenges, including how to compensate for his lack of gravity as a 3-point shooter and whether his starting necessitates additional changes to the starting lineup. When I look at the problems with the current starting lineup and who on the roster is playing well, I can’t help but wonder how exciting a new Lakers’ starting lineup of Rondo, Waiters, James, Kuzma, and Davis could be.

The Lakers could spread the floor and play five out. They would have five players on the floor who could not only shoot the three but also put the ball on the floor and attack the basket for easy layups or drive-and-dish threes. While the Lakers could be trading defense for offense, that may be exactly what they need from their starters right now and Rondo, Waiters, and Kuzma should play better overall than Caldwell-Pope, Green, and McGee.

In the end, Rajon Rondo’s return from injury could not come at a better time for the Lakers as it may open the door for Frank Vogel to finally make some substantive long needed changes to the Lakers starting lineup.

The Los Angeles Lakers find themselves in the unenviable position of facing a ‘must win’ first round playoff game this Thursday because Frank Vogel has stubbornly ignored the team’s glaring need to make major lineup changes.

Before you shake your head and declare it’s just one game, remember this is no longer the regular season or even the regular playoffs. The bubble has changed everything and like the NBA signs say, it’s a ‘Whole New Game.’ There is no home court. There are no fans to cheer the home team to rally. There is not even a season to continue after a five month hiatus. There’s just the bubble and games played in its strangely sterile virtual atmosphere.

After last night’s devastating loss to the upstart Portland Trail Blazers, Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel faces a potential career defining decision what to do to fix his team’s daunting offensive woes before it’s too late. Standing pat and waiting for law of averages to catch up and the Lakers’ shots to start falling is no longer a viable option. Waiting for that would be like hoping for the Covid-19 pandemic to miraculously disappear.

The sad reality is the Lakers aren’t going to suddenly start playing like the team they were five months ago when they downed the Clippers and Bucks in front of thousands of enthusiastic cheering Lakers’ fans in Staples Center. The wheels that were starting to come off then and are wobbling badly now are not going to magically repair themselves. They need to be replaced with new wheels and a game plan based on today rather than a fools’ gold past.

JaVale McGee’s not going to start playing like before the All-Star break. Danny Green’s not going to find the fountain of youth and be able to defend any more. KCP’s not going to start hitting his shots like five months ago. Frank Vogel needs to understand he now has a different team and is facing a totally different situation and the only way for the Lakers to have a chance to win the championship in this bubble is for him to make major changes.

The changes the Lakers need have been painfully obvious since the restart. Vogel needs to bench McGee and start Davis at five and Kuzma at the four and replace Green and KCP with Caruso and Waiters as the starting guards. The Lakers need to surround LeBron and AD with shooters who can spread the floor, stretch the defense, and open up lanes to attack the rim. Playing two bigs plays simply allows opposing teams to slow down LeBron and AD.

The Lakers no longer have the luxury to be loyal and give players time to get their games together. They cannot risk going down two games to none to a team with a superstar guard who can rain deep threes like Damian Lillard. Starting James, Davis, Kuzma, Caruso, and Waiters will give the team improved speed and quickness on defense and their two superstars the spacing they need for better scoring and playmaking opportunities.

Going small was the blueprint the #6 seed New Orleans Pelicans used to sweep the favored #3 seed Portland Trail Blazers in the first round of the 2018 playoffs and it’s the formula Frank Vogel needs to adapt right now. One of the architects of the Pelicans’ stunning upset of the Blazers two years ago was none other than Rajon Rondo, whom Vogel should look to run the second unit when LeBron James rests and Anthony Davis takes over.

The Lakers need to narrow their rotation starting Thursday night. Besides starters James, Davis, Kuzma, Caruso, and Waiters, Vogel should go with an eight player rotation with Rondo, Morris, and Howard being the reserves. Should we need more shooting, Cook should be given a chance. Should somebody get into foul trouble, Green, Caldwell-Pope, or McGee could fill in but only on a short leash since they have not played well in the bubble.

We’ll find out Thursday night if Vogel has the smarts or courage to make these changes but he should know LA is not Indiana or Orlando and his job as head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers won’t survive a first round exit.

It’s no secret the Portland Trail Blazers long-shot hopes to upset the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the NBA playoffs that start tomorrow night in Orlando depend mainly on Damian Lillard going off offensively.

It thus follows that the best way for the favored Lakers to make sure the underdog Blazers cannot pull off an unlikely upset is to figure out how to slow Lillard down to keep him from going off and dominating the game. While there are obvious moves teams have deployed in the past to control Dame, such as double teaming him and forcing him to give up the ball, here are three surprise moves the Lakers could make to slow him down:

1. Wear Him Out on Defense.

While Lillard is an elite offensive talent, he’s nowhere as impactful on the defensive end. In fact, his 114.3 defensive rating for the 2019-20 season ranks 14th on the Blazers for players who played over 10 minutes per game. Focusing on his offense even more in the bubble, Dame’s defensive rating soared to 121.7. The result of his poor defensive performances left him with net ratings of just 1.4 for the regular season and 2.2 for the bubble.

The Lakers should deploy the strategy they used to defuse the Clippers’ Lou Williams and relentlessly hunt switches to force Damian Lillard to defend LeBron James on every possession to tire and wear him out defensively.

2. Have His Defender Leak Out.

This is another tactic designed to hurt Lillard’s offense by forcing him to focus on defense by having the Lakers’ defender who is guarding him leak out as soon as Dame shoots to try to cherry pick an easy fast break basket. This not only can break Lillard’s concentration on offense but also make him less eager to beat his man and penetrate because he knows his initial defender is going to be leaking out looking a long pass in transition.

This strategy creates pressure on Lillard not only to make his shot but also to get back quickly whether the shot ends up falling or not and plays right into the Lakers’ game plan of beating teams down the court for easy buckets.

3. Defend Him with Size and Length.

While Damian Lillard is a prodigious offensive talent, he is still only 6′ 2″ tall, which makes him a small guard by NBA standards, which means he can be bothered and forced to adjust his shot by taller and longer defenders. Fortunately, the Lakers have three players who have elite defensive ability, are over 6′ 8″ in height, and have over 7′ 0″ in length in Kyle Kuzma, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis to make it difficult for Dame to get his shot off.

The Lakers will probably use Kuzma early as part of a wave of different defenders who will try and slow Lillard down but, if the game is still close heading down the stretch, look for James or Davis to defend Dame.

Dame averaged 36.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 9.0 assists in 40.0 minutes while shooting 50.8% from the field and 39.4% from deep with one win and two losses in three games against the Los Angeles Lakers this season. The Lakers’ goal should be to hold Lillard under 30 points per game and McCollum under 20 points per game. If they do that, there’s a good chance the Lakers will sweep the Blazers in the first round or win in five games.

The Blazers will try to turn this series into a shootout as that is their only chance to pull off an upset. The Lakers know this and understand defense is their advantage and will focus on making sure they contain Lillard.

While the coronavirus hiatus cost the Lakers home court advantage and their momentum, it unleashed the enigma known as Kyle Kuzma, which in the end may have unlocked their missing key to winning a championship.

That may seem like a bold and audacious statement since bringing home the ‘Bubble Championship’ will likely prove to be infinitely more difficult than winning other NBA titles considering the unprecedented challenges. But the emergence of Kyle Kuzma may have given the Lakers that elusive third star they had been lacking before the bubble who could transform them into a team with the fire and star power to win the championship.

The resurgence of Kuz at both the offensive and defensive ends may have catapulted the Lakers’ Kuzma and Davis small ball lineup from a promising occasional option to an essential game-changing championship weapon. Kuzma not only fixed his broken shot during the four months off to become the Lakers’ top 3-point shooter at 44.4% in the bubble but has also been playing elite defense against top scorers like the Rockets’ James Harden.

While Vogel’s likely to continue to resist starting Kuzma at the four and Davis at the five, the challenges the Lakers face in the bubble playoffs will force him to play the Kuzma and Davis lineup more as the playoffs progress. Replacing McGee or Howard with Kuzma transforms the Lakers into a faster, quicker, better shooting team that stretches opposing defenses and opens lanes for James and Davis to attack the paint and dominate games.

That Kuzma at the four and Davis at the five has been the Lakers’ best lineup is not a secret. The team’s best 5-player lineups both for the entire regular season and for their time in the bubble featured Kuzma and Davis. 5-player lineups with Kuzma at the 4 and Davis at the 5 posted team-best net ratings of 23.3 for the full season (112.5 offensive less 89.2 defensive) and 53.8 for the bubble games (130.8 offensive less 76.9 defensive).

As the Lakers get ready to play Portland in the first round of the playoffs, Frank Vogel should take a close look at how Anthony Davis and the Pelicans swept the Trail Blazers in 4 games in the first round of the 2018 playoffs. After losing Cousins to injury in January, the Pelicans decided to go small, moving Anthony Davis to center and trading for stretch four Nikola Mirotić. The underdog Pelicans’ small ball attack totally dominated the Blazers.

The Pelicans exposed the Blazers major defensive weakness by going small. Mirotić and Davis totally dominated the lumbering Collins and Nurkic and there’s no reason not to expect the Lakers’ Kuzma and Davis to do the same. The stats tell the story. Davis averaged 33.0 points and 11.8 rebounds and Mirotić 18.3 points and 9.0 rebounds compared to just 11.8 points and 8.0 rebounds for Nurkic and just 7.0 points and 3.0 rebounds for Collins.

With JaVale McGee playing poorly and the small ball Rockets likely next on the playoff schedule, Frank Vogel knows the key to the Lakers winning the NBA championship is going to be the Kuzma and Davis small ball lineups. That means fewer minutes for McGee and Howard and more minutes and eventually a starting role for Kyle Kuzma as the Lakers plan ahead for their eventual matchups with the Los Angeles Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks.

Bottom line, while fate may have robbed the Lakers of their momentum and hard earned home court advantage, the basketball gods may have made it up to them by helping Kyle Kuzma make the leap to become their third star.