Lakerholics

Rafael Barlowe from NBA Draft Junkies is back to share thoughts on the NBA bubble. The Surprises, the disappointments, and how the league has handled it thus far.

LakerTom from lakerholics.com is back talking about the 116-111 loss to the Indiana Pacers…

If there was a silver lining in the Los Angeles Lakers’ discouraging loss to the Houston Rockets last night, it was continued good play of Kyle Kuzma, who posted 21 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks in 30 minutes.

As Frank Vogel and the Lakers look for a way to break out of the shooting slump they’re currently mired in and allay doubts about their ability to win the championship, the obvious solution is to start their three best players. The only positive development the Lakers can take away from their first five seeding games has been Kyle Kuzma’s emergence as the team’s third best player, who should remain to be in the starting lineup with LeBron and AD.

Kyle Kuzma’s team-best three-point shooting and dramatically improved defense are perfect fits to play alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis and what the Lakers’ starting lineup needs to recapture its lost momentum. In the five bubble games played, Kyle’s averaged 14.4 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.4 steals, and 0.8 blocks in 27.3 minutes while still shooting a strong 46.0% from the field, 46.2% from deep, and 70.0% from the line.

Kuzma has earned the opportunity to start for the Lakers. Along with Waiters and Caruso, he’s one of only three Lakers’ players to have posted a positive net rating and cumulative plus/minus for the five seeding games. His improved shot selection and defense also show Kyle’s learned how to play off the ball and allow the game to come to him, which are critical traits to be able to play with superstars like LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

With just three ‘warm up’ games left for the Lakers before the playoffs begin, Vogel needs to make final decisions on his rotations and give his playoff lineups some time on the court to get comfortable playing together. If the coach is going to start his three best players — James, Davis, and Kuzma — then the big question then becomes who should be the other two Lakers starters? I think that decision should depend upon the matchups.

If the Lakers play a team with a traditional center, then it could make sense to start McGee, keep Davis at power forward to limit his low post banging and pull the opposing center out of the paint, and bench KCP or Green. LeBron is essentially playing point guard on offense and Kuzma continues to show the athleticism and ability to defend bigger shooting guards as he demonstrated defending the Rockets’ James Harden in last night’s game.

If the Lakers play a small ball team like the Rockets or a team with a stretch five center like the Nuggets, then it could be smart to start Anthony Davis at the five since he has the skill set to defend players out to the 3-point line. The Lakers would then start Caldwell-Pope and Green at guard, keeping Waiters and Caruso as the guard tandem off the bench, which would need their productivity since Kuzma would mostly be playing with the starters.

Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris would also get minutes off the bench and maybe Talen Horton-Tucker. Based on the results so far, Quinn Cook, JR Smith, Devontae Cacok, or Kostas Antetokounmpo will likely be DNP’s. That means a 10 or 11 player rotation of LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, JaVale McGee, Danny Green, Dion Waiters, Alex Caruso, Dwight Howard, Markieff Morris, and maybe THT.

The Lakers have not played well in the bubble so far, which puts them in a worrisome position with just three ‘warm up’ games until the playoffs. The team’s 3-point shooting and once great momentum has abandoned them. They’re still waiting to see Playoff LeBron and questions about his groin are concerning. Anthony Davis’ play has been a roller coaster and the team’s offensive stats for 3-point shooting and team offense rank dead last.

Right now, the Lakers’ championship hopes are in serious danger. They need something to shake them out of their malaise and inspire them to play better. Starting James, Davis, and Kuzma could be the spark they need.

While the Lakers’ coaching staff and players say all the team needs to do to solve their current dilemma is start hitting their shots, they’re running out of time to fix their offensive woes with just four games before the playoffs.

Adding urgency to the situation, the frigid shooting Lakers have to take on the three-ball crazy Houston Rockets tonight without superstar LeBron James, who’s taking a load management night off to rest a strained groin. Tonight’s game will be a major challenge for the poor 3-point shooting Lakers as they are going to have to make a reasonable number of threes just to keep pace with Rockets and have any chance of winning the game.

The good news is LeBron’s night off should give head coach Frank Vogel the opportunity to start Kyle Kuzma, the only Laker who is shooting the three-ball well, having made 11 of 22 threes during the first four games for 50%. Kuzma’s hot hand from three could be the boost the Lakers’ starting lineup needs and could pave the way for head coach Vogel to finally make the decision to start Anthony Davis at the five to win the championship.

JaVale McGee has been a major bubble bust. He has a team worst -19.6 net rating the first four games and has seen his points, rebounds, steals, and blocks decrease while his minutes, personal fouls, and turnovers increased. There’s a case to be made that starting McGee against the small ball Rockets would be unwise even if he were playing well. Imagining a struggling McGee trying to defend one of Houston’s stretch fours is totally ludicrous.

While Frank Vogel’s still likely to start McGee, this could be the first step towards a new lineup for the playoffs. It could even have been a way for the coach to tinker more with a Davis at the five and Kuzma at the four offense? Vogel may have hinted at that yesterday when he was asked if Lakers were considering a possible lineup change. The frustrated coach responded: “We’ll see. We’re looking at everything, but it’s bigger than that.”

Moving Kuzma into the starting lineup could be the spark that jumpstarts the Lakers’ starting lineup’s shooting woes and ignites the fire to move Anthony Davis into the starting center role as the team starts the playoffs. While Vogel’s been hesitant to change his starting lineup, Kuzma’s hot shooting and greatly improved defense could force him to make the move. It’s a smart move that could make the Lakers a more dangerous team.

I’m looking for the Lakers to shoot lights out tonight. While 3-point shooting has never been their strength, they’re certainly a better shooting team than they’ve showed so far in the bubble. Law of averages should rule here. Meanwhile, the defensive matchups are going to force Frank Vogel to play Anthony Davis at center more than usual because neither McGee or Howard are comfortable or effective guarding players beyond the 3-point line.

This game against the Rockets could be a harbinger of what’s to come for the Lakers. They need to come out hungry and poised and play and shoot well. Hopefully, Kuzma and AD will excel and show Vogel the path forward.

While they beat the Clippers in the Battle for LA and clinched top seed in the West versus the Jazz, the NBA restart has been a struggle for the Lakers as LeBron James has looked mortal and their 3-point shooting problematic.

With just five regular season ‘seeding’ games left before the playoffs begin, the time may have come for Frank Vogel to shake up the Lakers’ starting lineup by replacing longtime starter JaVale McGee with Anthony Davis. While Vogel’s been steadfast in not changing his starting lineup all season, the Lakers’ lackluster play in the first three ‘restart’ games has exposed serious issues that could be better addressed now than in the playoffs.

At the top of the list is the poor performance by the Lakers’ starting lineup of Caldwell-Pope, Green, James, Davis, and McGee, who struggled mightily and put the Lakers in deep holes at the start of games and second halves. The combination of Caldwell-Pope’s and Green’s horrid 3-point shooting and McGee’s clogging the lane on offense allowed opponents to suffocate the Lakers’ offense by doubling Davis and packing the paint against James.

With the #1 seed in the West locked up, Frank Vogel should use the remaining five ‘seeding’ games to experiment with a new starting lineup featuring Anthony Davis at the five and possibly Kyle Kuzma at the four.

Here are four reasons why the Lakers should start Anthony Davis at the five:

1. The Lakers’ best lineups have been with Anthony Davis at center.

There’s never been any question the Lakers’ best lineup is one with Anthony Davis at the five. It’s the only lineup with five players who can shoot the three and thus the ideal lineup to create spacing to unleash LeBron and AD. The win against the Jazz last night was a perfect example. After a tight battle the first 30 minutes, the Laker broke the game open midway through the third quarter when they pulled McGee and went with AD at the five.

2. The Lakers’ worst lineups have been with JaVale McGee at center.

The starting lineup of Caldwell-Pope, Green, James, Davis, and McGee played 34 minutes, three times more than any other 5-player lineup in the last three games, and posted a dismal -27 net rating and -21 plus/minus. They were not only outscored to start all three games but also to start the second halves. The problem is JaVale McGee, who has a dreadful -26 net rating and -21 plus/minus for the three games just suffocates the offense.

3. Starting Anthony Davis would enable the Lakers to start Kyle Kuzma.

The season restart has resurrected Kyle Kuzma’s future as a Laker. Kuz has posted a+10.2 net rating and +19 plus/minus for the three games while averaging 13.7 points, 4.0 boards, and 1.3 assists in 28.3 minutes per game. Besides elite defense against Kawhi and Siacom, Kuzma has also been the Lakers’ best 3-point shooter, hitting 9 of 17 threes in the first three games for 52.9%. Replacing McGee with Davis opens the door to start Kuzma.

4. Starting Anthony Davis is the best way to unleash LeBron James.

One of the most troublesome issues in the Lakers’ first three games has been how mortal LeBron has looked at times, primarily because opposing teams are clogging the lane to turn him into a playmaker rather than scorer. Surrounding him with four shooters has always been the formula to win championships with LeBron James. It’s time for the Lakers to remember this and start Anthony Davis at the five and open up the court for LeBron.

No NBA team has ever faced as challenging a path to the championship as the Orlando bubble. Now is not the time for Frank Vogel to be overly patient or hesitant to make moves to solve obvious issues. It’s time for AD to start.