Lakerholics

LakerTom from lakerholics.com is back talking about the 116-111 loss to the Indiana Pacers…

If there was a silver lining in the Los Angeles Lakers’ discouraging loss to the Houston Rockets last night, it was continued good play of Kyle Kuzma, who posted 21 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks in 30 minutes.

As Frank Vogel and the Lakers look for a way to break out of the shooting slump they’re currently mired in and allay doubts about their ability to win the championship, the obvious solution is to start their three best players. The only positive development the Lakers can take away from their first five seeding games has been Kyle Kuzma’s emergence as the team’s third best player, who should remain to be in the starting lineup with LeBron and AD.

Kyle Kuzma’s team-best three-point shooting and dramatically improved defense are perfect fits to play alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis and what the Lakers’ starting lineup needs to recapture its lost momentum. In the five bubble games played, Kyle’s averaged 14.4 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.4 steals, and 0.8 blocks in 27.3 minutes while still shooting a strong 46.0% from the field, 46.2% from deep, and 70.0% from the line.

Kuzma has earned the opportunity to start for the Lakers. Along with Waiters and Caruso, he’s one of only three Lakers’ players to have posted a positive net rating and cumulative plus/minus for the five seeding games. His improved shot selection and defense also show Kyle’s learned how to play off the ball and allow the game to come to him, which are critical traits to be able to play with superstars like LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

With just three ‘warm up’ games left for the Lakers before the playoffs begin, Vogel needs to make final decisions on his rotations and give his playoff lineups some time on the court to get comfortable playing together. If the coach is going to start his three best players — James, Davis, and Kuzma — then the big question then becomes who should be the other two Lakers starters? I think that decision should depend upon the matchups.

If the Lakers play a team with a traditional center, then it could make sense to start McGee, keep Davis at power forward to limit his low post banging and pull the opposing center out of the paint, and bench KCP or Green. LeBron is essentially playing point guard on offense and Kuzma continues to show the athleticism and ability to defend bigger shooting guards as he demonstrated defending the Rockets’ James Harden in last night’s game.

If the Lakers play a small ball team like the Rockets or a team with a stretch five center like the Nuggets, then it could be smart to start Anthony Davis at the five since he has the skill set to defend players out to the 3-point line. The Lakers would then start Caldwell-Pope and Green at guard, keeping Waiters and Caruso as the guard tandem off the bench, which would need their productivity since Kuzma would mostly be playing with the starters.

Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris would also get minutes off the bench and maybe Talen Horton-Tucker. Based on the results so far, Quinn Cook, JR Smith, Devontae Cacok, or Kostas Antetokounmpo will likely be DNP’s. That means a 10 or 11 player rotation of LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, JaVale McGee, Danny Green, Dion Waiters, Alex Caruso, Dwight Howard, Markieff Morris, and maybe THT.

The Lakers have not played well in the bubble so far, which puts them in a worrisome position with just three ‘warm up’ games until the playoffs. The team’s 3-point shooting and once great momentum has abandoned them. They’re still waiting to see Playoff LeBron and questions about his groin are concerning. Anthony Davis’ play has been a roller coaster and the team’s offensive stats for 3-point shooting and team offense rank dead last.

Right now, the Lakers’ championship hopes are in serious danger. They need something to shake them out of their malaise and inspire them to play better. Starting James, Davis, and Kuzma could be the spark they need.

While the Lakers’ coaching staff and players say all the team needs to do to solve their current dilemma is start hitting their shots, they’re running out of time to fix their offensive woes with just four games before the playoffs.

Adding urgency to the situation, the frigid shooting Lakers have to take on the three-ball crazy Houston Rockets tonight without superstar LeBron James, who’s taking a load management night off to rest a strained groin. Tonight’s game will be a major challenge for the poor 3-point shooting Lakers as they are going to have to make a reasonable number of threes just to keep pace with Rockets and have any chance of winning the game.

The good news is LeBron’s night off should give head coach Frank Vogel the opportunity to start Kyle Kuzma, the only Laker who is shooting the three-ball well, having made 11 of 22 threes during the first four games for 50%. Kuzma’s hot hand from three could be the boost the Lakers’ starting lineup needs and could pave the way for head coach Vogel to finally make the decision to start Anthony Davis at the five to win the championship.

JaVale McGee has been a major bubble bust. He has a team worst -19.6 net rating the first four games and has seen his points, rebounds, steals, and blocks decrease while his minutes, personal fouls, and turnovers increased. There’s a case to be made that starting McGee against the small ball Rockets would be unwise even if he were playing well. Imagining a struggling McGee trying to defend one of Houston’s stretch fours is totally ludicrous.

While Frank Vogel’s still likely to start McGee, this could be the first step towards a new lineup for the playoffs. It could even have been a way for the coach to tinker more with a Davis at the five and Kuzma at the four offense? Vogel may have hinted at that yesterday when he was asked if Lakers were considering a possible lineup change. The frustrated coach responded: “We’ll see. We’re looking at everything, but it’s bigger than that.”

Moving Kuzma into the starting lineup could be the spark that jumpstarts the Lakers’ starting lineup’s shooting woes and ignites the fire to move Anthony Davis into the starting center role as the team starts the playoffs. While Vogel’s been hesitant to change his starting lineup, Kuzma’s hot shooting and greatly improved defense could force him to make the move. It’s a smart move that could make the Lakers a more dangerous team.

I’m looking for the Lakers to shoot lights out tonight. While 3-point shooting has never been their strength, they’re certainly a better shooting team than they’ve showed so far in the bubble. Law of averages should rule here. Meanwhile, the defensive matchups are going to force Frank Vogel to play Anthony Davis at center more than usual because neither McGee or Howard are comfortable or effective guarding players beyond the 3-point line.

This game against the Rockets could be a harbinger of what’s to come for the Lakers. They need to come out hungry and poised and play and shoot well. Hopefully, Kuzma and AD will excel and show Vogel the path forward.

While they beat the Clippers in the Battle for LA and clinched top seed in the West versus the Jazz, the NBA restart has been a struggle for the Lakers as LeBron James has looked mortal and their 3-point shooting problematic.

With just five regular season ‘seeding’ games left before the playoffs begin, the time may have come for Frank Vogel to shake up the Lakers’ starting lineup by replacing longtime starter JaVale McGee with Anthony Davis. While Vogel’s been steadfast in not changing his starting lineup all season, the Lakers’ lackluster play in the first three ‘restart’ games has exposed serious issues that could be better addressed now than in the playoffs.

At the top of the list is the poor performance by the Lakers’ starting lineup of Caldwell-Pope, Green, James, Davis, and McGee, who struggled mightily and put the Lakers in deep holes at the start of games and second halves. The combination of Caldwell-Pope’s and Green’s horrid 3-point shooting and McGee’s clogging the lane on offense allowed opponents to suffocate the Lakers’ offense by doubling Davis and packing the paint against James.

With the #1 seed in the West locked up, Frank Vogel should use the remaining five ‘seeding’ games to experiment with a new starting lineup featuring Anthony Davis at the five and possibly Kyle Kuzma at the four.

Here are four reasons why the Lakers should start Anthony Davis at the five:

1. The Lakers’ best lineups have been with Anthony Davis at center.

There’s never been any question the Lakers’ best lineup is one with Anthony Davis at the five. It’s the only lineup with five players who can shoot the three and thus the ideal lineup to create spacing to unleash LeBron and AD. The win against the Jazz last night was a perfect example. After a tight battle the first 30 minutes, the Laker broke the game open midway through the third quarter when they pulled McGee and went with AD at the five.

2. The Lakers’ worst lineups have been with JaVale McGee at center.

The starting lineup of Caldwell-Pope, Green, James, Davis, and McGee played 34 minutes, three times more than any other 5-player lineup in the last three games, and posted a dismal -27 net rating and -21 plus/minus. They were not only outscored to start all three games but also to start the second halves. The problem is JaVale McGee, who has a dreadful -26 net rating and -21 plus/minus for the three games just suffocates the offense.

3. Starting Anthony Davis would enable the Lakers to start Kyle Kuzma.

The season restart has resurrected Kyle Kuzma’s future as a Laker. Kuz has posted a+10.2 net rating and +19 plus/minus for the three games while averaging 13.7 points, 4.0 boards, and 1.3 assists in 28.3 minutes per game. Besides elite defense against Kawhi and Siacom, Kuzma has also been the Lakers’ best 3-point shooter, hitting 9 of 17 threes in the first three games for 52.9%. Replacing McGee with Davis opens the door to start Kuzma.

4. Starting Anthony Davis is the best way to unleash LeBron James.

One of the most troublesome issues in the Lakers’ first three games has been how mortal LeBron has looked at times, primarily because opposing teams are clogging the lane to turn him into a playmaker rather than scorer. Surrounding him with four shooters has always been the formula to win championships with LeBron James. It’s time for the Lakers to remember this and start Anthony Davis at the five and open up the court for LeBron.

No NBA team has ever faced as challenging a path to the championship as the Orlando bubble. Now is not the time for Frank Vogel to be overly patient or hesitant to make moves to solve obvious issues. It’s time for AD to start.

While basketball experts would think it crazy to change starters after just two games, the Lakers’ starting lineup has been a statistical nightmare in the season restart with just six games remaining before the playoffs begin.

While a veteran coach like Frank Vogel is unlikely to make a drastic move, all five Lakers’ starters posted negative net ratings while all five Lakers’ reserves had positive net ratings the first two games of the season restart. While the Lakers won’t make wholesale changes to their starting lineup, it would be foolish for the coaching staff to ignore this red flag and not start considering possible changes in who starts or at least in minutes played.

After all, the clock is ticking and the Lakers only have six more regular season ‘seeding’ games to make changes to get ready for the playoffs. Here are the Lakers’ player net rating for first two games per NBA.com:

The challenge for Frank Vogel and his staff is to create a starting lineup that complements superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, which requires more than anything else players who can hit open shots and play defense. From the above stats, we can see the problem with the Lakers’ starting lineups the last two games was offense, not defense. Per NBA.com, Lakers’ starters had a poor 66.7 offensive rating and good 102.2 defensive rating.

The Lakers’ 3-point shooting stats the last two games confirms the problem. As a team, the Lakers’ shot just 27.6% from deep, 29th worst out of 30 teams. Opponents scored 27 more points from deep in the last two games. The Lakers’ poor 3-point shooting allowed the Clippers and the Raptors to clog the middle and keep LeBron James and Anthony Davis from getting to the rim, which was a big factor leading to their subpar performances.

Lakers’ superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis as a duo average 52.1 points per game on 50.1% from the field but in the last two games were held to just 42.0 points per game and just 38.3% field goal percentage. While it’s easy to write off the outcome as James and Davis having subpar games, the truth is the poor shooting performances of their teammates in the Lakers’ starting lineup was likely the reason for their subpar games.

So what are the options the Lakers’ coaching staff should consider? The obvious solution is surround LeBron and AD with better shooting. Here are Lakers’ players 3-point shooting stats the last two games per NBA.com:

It’s obvious the problem with the starting lineup the last two games has been the shooting of guard Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Combined, the two have made only 6 of 28 threes for a dismal 21.4%. Caldwell-Pope and Green are the Lakers’ best 3-point shooters so it would be foolish to replace them as starters but the team shouldn’t hesitate to put them on a short lease or fewer minutes if they continue to shoot poorly.

The NBA is a copycat league and the problem facing the Lakers is teams are going to increasingly clog the middle and challenge the Lakers to make shots from beyond the arc so 3-point shooting is going to become critical. The Lakers cannot afford to give players who aren’t shooting well extended time to fix the problem. The playoffs are right around the corner, which means Green and Caldwell-Pope need to start hitting their threes right now.

Should Green or KCP continue to miss their threes, Frank Vogel should not hesitate to start or give Dion Waiters more minutes. While he’s only shot 3 of 12 from deep so far, he’s been a 37.7% 3-point shooter the last two years. While the Lakers envisioned Waiters as the playmaker and shot creator for the second unit when LeBron rests, Dion has posted a better two-player net rating with both James and Davis than either Green or Caldwell-Pope.

Finally, the other option the Lakers have should consider if KCP and/or Green don’t start hitting their threes is moving Anthony Davis to the five to replace JaVale McGee and inserting Kyle Kuzma into the starting lineup. Kuz has already earned a role in the Lakers closing rotation and is playing the second most minutes after LeBron. At some point, Kuzma and Waiters are going to become key players in the Lakers championship quest.s0-

Frank Vogel’s been steadfast in keeping the same starting lineup all year but the playoffs are different and the Lakers need to watch Green’s and KCP’s shooting woes closely and adjust sooner rather than later if necessary.