Lakerholics

Veteran NBA coaches always like to keep a few promising lineups, special plays, or unexpected offensive moves hidden during the regular season so they can spring them on unwary opponents once the playoffs begin.

Here are four surprise offensive moves head coach Frank Vogel could be saving for unsuspecting Lakers’ playoff opponents, like the Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, and Milwaukee Bucks:

1. LeBron and AD Pick–and–Rolls.

This is something the Lakers have rarely used in the regular season but should become an offensive staple in the playoffs, especially with a trio of three-point shooters positioned on the weak side to keep defenses honest. Isolating LeBron and AD in a two-man game on one side of the court would make it difficult for other defenders to help. Lakers’ foes should expect to see a steady diet of LeBron and AD pick-and-rolls to close out games

This should become the Lakers’ go-to play to get the ball to Anthony Davis via pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop, taking advantage of LeBron’s unmatched playmaking and AD’s elite ability to finish at the rim and shoot the three.

2. LeBron James Matchup Hunting.

This is another tactic we haven’t seen often from the Lakers so far this season, with the exception of the last Clippers game, where LeBron James relentlessly hunted and took advantage of switches with Lou Williams. What makes this strategy so difficult to defend is James’ superior passing ability, which makes it tough for teams to double him and forces the defender who was hunted and switched to try to defend LeBron 1-on-1.

The bonus of the matchup hunting strategy is it forces the opposing team’s best offensive guard to use valuable energy at the defensive end and risk getting into foul trouble. It’s an ideal strategy against players like Lillard.

3. Five-Out Shooter Lineups.

This is a lineup the Lakers have only shown a few times during the regular season but could be extremely difficult to defend when Kyle Kuzma comes into the game for JaVale McGee and Anthony Davis is moved to the five. Imagine defending LeBron, AD, Kuzma, Waiters, and Caruso one-on-one in a five-out set and trying to keep them from attacking the basket. It would be a nightmare scenario for the defense with no rim protection in the paint.

Five-out shooter line-ups would be especially potent against teams with traditional defensive centers who like to clog the lane playing drop coverage and could end up forcing those teams to go small and bench their centers.

4. Kuzma at Shooting Guard.

If you believe the position a player can play is the position he can defend, Kuzma at shooting guard could be a future lineup weapon that enables the Lakers to play LeBron, AD, Kuzma, as well as a center at the same time. While it’s just an experiment at this time, the potential for the Lakers and Kyle Kuzma are eye opening. If he shows he can defend guards and shoot lights out from deep, he could become impossible to defend as 6′ 8″ guard.

The Lakers’ experiments having Kuzma playing shooting guard have so far been defensively oriented but Kyle’s ability to shoot the three and attack the basket when challenged could make playing the two a dangerous weapon.

Watch for the Lakers to specifically make extensive use of ‘LeBron and AD Pick-and-Rolls’ and ‘LeBron James Matchup Hunting’ as major strategies in each playoff series to optimize the production from their two superstars. ‘Five-Out Shooter Lineups’ and ‘Kuzma at Shooting Guard’ will likely be surprise moves Vogel will deploy at key moments during series when the matchups are right or the Lakers need something to change momentum.

Possessing a repertoire of offensive adjustments like these four moves could give Frank Vogel and the Lakers an advantage that could transform a tight series into a rout and propel the team to win their 17th NBA championship.

While it’s looking like the Portland Trail Blazers will be the Los Angeles Lakers’ first round playoff opponent, the stats and matchups between the teams suggest LA would be smart to start Kyle Kuzma for Danny Green.

With Portland starting a traditional two-big lineup that includes 7′ 0″ Jusuf Nurkic and 6′ 11″ Zach Collins, the Lakers clearly need to counter with their normal starting front court of 7′ 0″ JaVale McGee and 6′ 10″ Anthony Davis. But does it necessarily follow the Lakers should start their current starting bubble guard tandem of Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope against the Blazers’ All-Star guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum?

There’s a case to be made the Lakers could benefit from thinking outside the box and starting Kyle Kuzma instead of Danny Green because he would make the Lakers a better, more dangerous team at both ends of the court. Who’s playing well, how McCollum’s back holds up, and what the stats from the teams’ three prior matchups say strongly argue starting Kuzma over Green could be a savvy series-changing move by the Lakers’ Frank Vogel.

First, it’s obvious KCP will be the Lakers’ primary defender on Damian Lillard with the team’s other starting guard defending CJ McCollum, who’s been struggling with his shooting in the bubble due to a lower back injury. Vogel’s also made it clear he thinks the Lakers are “going to need two quick guards against most of these teams we could be facing. It’s a small-ball league, so we’re going to need defensive speed on the perimeter.”

That statement in itself should raise a red flag. Vogel needs to rethink whether Danny Green fits the definition of a “quick, speedy guard” at this point in his career as the recent evidence clearly shows he has lost a step. Green lacked the speed or quickness to stay in front of Murray or navigate his way through picks to prevent Jamal from forcing switches to take advantage of him, which is exactly what McCullum is going to do too.

That’s why Vogel benched Green against the Pacers after Murray hunted switches and scored easy baskets on him several times in a row and it was no coincidence Kyle Kuzma was the player he chose to replace Green. Kuzma’s shown the quickness, length, and athleticism to defend guards and Vogel would be wise to remember what happened in the Pacers game when he puts together his defensive game plan for the Trail Blazers series.

Kuzma’s defense has improved dramatically in the bubble games. While he still has a long way to go to become an elite defender, the effort and results he showed defending scoring guards like James Harden cannot be ignored. Meanwhile, Green’s 115.6 defensive rating for Lakers players in the bubble ranks dead last on the team and his -16 individual net rating ranked 12th. In other words, Green’s stats confirm what the eye test is telling you.

If that were not enough, Vogel should take a long look at the stats from the three games the Lakers and Blazers played before the coronavirus hiatus because those numbers make a compelling case for Kuzma over Green. Kuzma averaged 18.7 points and 8.3 rebounds in 26.4 minutes while Green averaged 3.7 points and 3.3 rebounds in 20.7 minutes. Kyle Kuzma also posted far better offensive, defensive, and net ratings for the three games.

I don’t expect Frank Vogel to start Kyle Kuzma over Danny Green should the Blazers end up being the Lakers’ first round opponent but I’ll be rooting like every Lakers for Danny to play like the savvy vet he is and prove me wrong. Unfortunately, the chances are the Lakers are going to need Kyle Kuzma in the starting lineup at some point during the Blazers series and I just hope and pray Frank Vogel recognizes this sooner rather than after it’s too late.

It’s reassuring Frank Vogel plans to have Kyle Kuzma play big minutes as the team’s sixth man but the Lakers are going to need him to start at some point during these playoffs if they plan to win their 17th NBA championship.

For the Los Angeles Lakers, Kyle Kuzma’s buzzer beating, game winning three with 0.04 seconds left in a meaningless game could be the shot that saved their season and restored their momentum heading into the playoffs.

That head coach Frank Vogel drew up a play for Kyle Kuzma instead of superstars LeBron James or Anthony Davis made the moment even more special as Kuzma had clearly been the Lakers’ best player in the bubble. While we won’t know until the playoffs begin whether one shot that didn’t matter could revitalize the Lakers and restore the energy and confidence they had before the bubble, key moments like this can often be cathartic.

Kuzma’s clutch three was a moment the struggling Lakers desperately needed after losing four of their first six games in the bubble and suffering their trustworthy offense and 3-point shooting rudely abandoning them. The Lakers’ obvious relief and spontaneous reaction on the court and bench and later in the locker room seemed more reminiscent of watching the team celebrate winning a championship than a seemingly unimportant game.

For the Lakers, it was like a cloud had been lifted after losing their home court advantage and valuable momentum as the league’s best team only then to be forced to endure the unfair challenges of playing in the bubble. LeBron James and Anthony Davis were suddenly playing like superstars, Kuz was back as the toast of the town, the threes were finally falling, and the basketball gods were once again smiling on the purple and gold.

With just one inconsequential seeding game left and a full week to practice and prepare for their first playoff game, Kuzma’s potential season saving shot could not have come at a more auspicious moment for the Lakers. Frank Vogel has had a chance to integrate the new players on the roster and to figure out his starting lineup and rotations depending on the matchups. All that remains now is to find who the Lakers’ first round foe will be.

As for Lakers fans, we can join the team in enjoying the deep collective sigh Kyle Kuma’s transformative shot had on our fragile purple and gold psyches. Suddenly, at least for the moment, all is well in the world of the Lakers.

The six games the Lakers have played in the bubble have been a Jekyll and Hyde roller coaster ride for Lakers fans who expected their team to pick up where they left off five months ago when they were on top of the world.

Instead, the Lakers are struggling, their two superstars suddenly appear mortal, their shooters can’t shoot, their coach can’t coach, and the needles on most Lakers fans’ ‘worry meters’ are hovering near the danger zone. While they’re still the #1 seed in the West, the team has lost three straight and four of six games played and ranks dead last in offensive rating and three-point shooting among the 22 teams playing in the Orlando bubble.

With just two regular season games left to play before the playoffs start, poor play, nagging injuries, and the challenges of the bubble are raising concerns about the Lakers’ ability to coalesce and win the championship. How teams were playing five months ago has become irrelevant, the road to the Finals longer and steeper, and the future more difficult to predict. Here are the five ‘big’ questions every Lakers fan is worrying about right now:

1. Will We See Playoff LeBron in Purple and Gold?

While there have been glimpses, we haven’t seen the usual signs of James donning his cape and transforming himself into Playoff LeBron. That could still come but right now LeBron’s looking rusty after a five month hiatus. The lingering groin injury, moments of mortality, and comments about things he can’t control have cast doubts whether 35-year old LeBron will still be able to elevate his game to carry the Lakers to the championship.

The only thing certain is pursuing this championship in the bubble will be the greatest challenge LeBron James has faced and winning it the greatest accomplishment he has achieved in his long and storied NBA career.

2. Will Anthony Davis Learn to Beat Double Teams?

The Lakers need both of their superstars to win a championship and they have rarely seen that in the six games since the regular season restarted. Like LeBron James, Anthony Davis has not regained his pre-hiatus form. Opposing teams have started doubling AD and it’s clearly affected his play. He’s been held to less than 10 points twice in the last six bubble games compared to just twice in the 55 games before the coronavirus suspension.

The NBA is a copycat league and Davis is going to see a heavy diet of teams doubling him throughout the playoffs. He will need to learn how to beat double teams and play like the superstar he is for the Lakers to succeed.

3. Will Our Role Players Shoot Well Enough to Win?

The acknowledged blueprint for winning championships with LeBron is surrounding him with elite shooters. Poor 3-point shooting has been the Lakers’ Achilles heel and could be their downfall in the upcoming playoffs. The Lakers have made only 50 threes in their 6 games and are shooting just 25.4% from deep, both of which rank dead last among the 22 bubble teams. Teams simply cannot win in the modern NBA shooting threes that poorly.

As long as the Lakers shoot poorly from deep, teams will continue to double Anthony Davis and clog the paint to slow LeBron James. The Lakers’ role players must dramatically improve their 3-point shooting to win the title.

4. Will Frank Vogel Make the Right Playoff Moves?

Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel has done an admirable job leading the Lakers to the #1 seed in the West but the challenges of these bubble playoffs may require him to make adjustments that are uncomfortable. Stability is critically important during the long haul of the regular season but the willingness to make unconventional moves and innovative adjustments on the fly is often the difference maker in the playoffs.

Is Vogel willing to sacrifice defense to jumpstart his sputtering offense? Is he willing to forego his season long reluctance to start Anthony Davis at the five and Kyle Kuzma at the four? He must make the right moves in time.

5. Can Lakers Overcome the Challenge of the Bubble?

Instead of an asterisk, the winner of this NBA championship should receive a gold star for overcoming the challenges of the bubble. No fans, no home court advantage, and new play-in tournament have redefined the playoffs. The five month hiatus and unprecedented bubble conditions have made it impossible to predict who has advantages and who doesn’t as the teams scramble to to get ready for a playoffs like the NBA has never before seen.

The Los Angeles Lakers’ road to the Finals may end up going through the Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets, and Los Angeles Clippers so the Lakers will need legendary play and good luck to win the championship.

Rafael Barlowe from NBA Draft Junkies is back to share thoughts on the NBA bubble. The Surprises, the disappointments, and how the league has handled it thus far.