Lakerholics

There’s no Lakers’ player more controversial or polarizing to the team’s fans and pundits than 34-year old point guard Rajon Rondo and no basketball urban myth more chimerical and illusive than the legend of Playoff Rondo.

Yet that’s exactly what we just witnessed as Playoff Rondo posted 10 points, 9 assists, 5 steals, and 3 rebounds with just 1 turnover to help the Lakers beat the Rockets 117–109 in just his second game in the Bubble Playoffs. Considering Rajon had missed the Lakers’ eight regular season seeding games and five first round playoff games due to thumb and back injuries, watching him come out and rock Playoff Rondo was totally unexpected.

On the other hand, maybe we should have had faith in legend of Playoff Rondo. After all, the last time he had a chance to play in the NBA playoffs was in 2018 when he led the underdog Pelicans to a sweep of the Blazers. Rondo averaged 11.3 points, 13.3 assists, and 7.5 rebounds in 35.4 minutes while shooting 48.7% from the field, 42.9% from deep, and 80.0% from the line and posting an impressive plus/minus of 10.5 and net rating of 13.7.

Playoff Rondo’s performance against the Blazers in 2018 was not just an isolated performance as Rajon’s career playoff stats have always outpaced his regular season stars, confirming he plays best in the heat of the playoffs.
Rondo’s career regular season averages are 10.2 points, 8.3 assists, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.7 steals in 31.0 minutes while his career playoff stats are 13.9 points, 9.3 assists, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.9 steals in 37.4 minutes.

But the legend of Playoff Rondo is more than a statistical aberration. It has to do with the swag and confidence he inspires when he’s on the court and the way he efficiently runs the offense and smoothly distributes the ball. While hypercritical fans and pundits may bemoan his stats and analytics, Rajon has earned the full trust and complete confidence of Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel and superstar duo LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

The Lakers won last night’s pivotal game against the Rocket largely because Playoff Rondo showed up. His +28 plus/minus and +46.7 net rating not only led the Lakers but he was part of the team’s four best 5-player lineups. While the Rockets are likely to continue disrespecting his gravity behind the 3-point line, there’s little question Playoff Rondo is a huge difference maker on the floor with LeBron James or when the King is resting on the bench.

JaVale McGee’s unfortunate injury and the way the Lakers played when going small with Rondo in the lineup may have opened the door to Vogel finally making a change in the Lakers’ starting lineup for Tuesday’s game. Frank has been reluctant to change his starting lineup but JaVale’s injury and Rajon’s play may have given him the opportunity to make a change that could empower the Laker by starting Playoff Rondo at point guard.

One thing Vogel cannot discount is how Rondo takes pressure off of LeBron James to be both a primary scorer and playmaker for the Lakers. Rondo running the offense unleashes LeBron to be in full-time attack mode.

And that’s exactly what the Lakers need to get past the Houston Rockets.

After the Houston Rockets’ Game 1 Round 2 upset of the Los Angeles Lakers, there are renewed calls for Frank Vogel to change his starting lineup but what he actually needs to do is change the style his team is playing.

Heading into the playoffs, the concern was the Lakers’ ability to contain the Rockets’ small ball offense. While the Lakers still need to adjust defensively, their real problem in Game 1 was beating the Rockets’ small ball defense. The smaller, tougher Rocket’s defenders were essentially able to bully and outplay the taller Lakers’ players in the paint at both ends of the court, winning points-in-the-paint and tying them in the battle of the boards.

Benching traditional back-to-basket centers is only part of the solution to matching up with the Rockets’ crafty small ball lineup. Starting and playing Anthony Davis or Markieff Morris at center will help the Lakers defensively. But pounding the ball inside to Anthony Davis against PJ Tucker is exactly what the Rockets want. You don’t beat them just by going small on offense. You actually need to play small, which means without a traditional center.

While the Rockets offense is revolutionary, their strategy on defense uses simple time-tested traditional tactics of packing the paint, keeping their opponents from getting to the rim, and forcing them to shoot long jumpers. Starting Anthony Davis at center and isolating him in the post against the smaller PJ Tucker is fools’ gold. It only clogs the lane, prevents LeBron from getting to the rim, and ultimately helps the Rocket’s defensive strategy.

What the Lakers need to do to beat Houston’s switch-everything defense is abandon trying to take advantage of their height in the post and instead spread the defense to open the floor for LeBron and AD to attack the rim. The way to beat Houston’s defense is to unpack the paint and eliminate any rim protection by playing 5-out sets positioning five players who can effectively shoot the three and attack the basket behind the 3-point line.

Players who could be good fits for 5-out sets include starters LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Danny Green plus reserves Kyle Kuzma, Alex Caruso, Markieff Morris, and Dion Waiters. Frank Vogel would be smart to consider playing an eight-player rotation of those players against the Houston Rockets. They could match up on defense and enable the Lakers to spread the floor and attack the paint on offense.

You’ll notice that I did not include Rajon Rondo in that eight-player rotation because he lacks the 3-point gravity necessary to keep his defender from sagging off him to clog up the middle and is a liability on the defensive end. Besides a respectful loyalty to JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard for their contributions to winning the West, Vogel needs to understand this is not the right series for Rondo or McGee or Howard to play. Not against the Rockets.

While the Lakers also lost Game 1 to the Blazers, what’s scary about losing the first game against the Rockets is how they beat LA at their own game. They didn’t dominate by raining threes. They played smarter basketball. Like Mike Budenholzer, whose refusal to make changes has the Bubble Bucks on the verge of being swept by the Heat, Frank Vogel’s reluctance to adjust his lineups or style of play may end up costing the Bubble Lakers.

Right now, the Lakers aren’t in great danger but if Vogel continues to rely on his usual lineups and rotations and the Lakers lose Game 2 to the Rockets and go down 0–2, the odds of them winning the series plummet to just 7%. While that’s not the 0% odds facing the Bucks, it’s not where the Lakers want to be 2 games into the series, which means Vogel needs to get serious and make major adjustments before Sunday’s Game 2 against Houston.

The changes Frank needs to make are simple. On offense, he needs to bench McGee and Howard, give their roles and minutes to Kuzma, Caruso, Morris, and Waiters, and spread the floor with 5-out sets to free LeBron and AD. Defensively, he should consider playing a triangle and two zone to double Harden at the half-court line, commit defenders to prevent easy corner threes, and keep Anthony Davis in the middle for rim protection.

The bottom line is LeBron James and Anthony Davis are being outplayed by James Harden and Russell Westbrook but a big part of the blame is due to Frank Vogel stubbornly refusing to change his lineups and strategies.

Despite a dismal showing in the bubble and first playoff game and calls from pundits and fans to change the Lakers’ starting lineup, Frank Vogel elected to stay with the players who got him to the dance and it paid off.

In their four straight playoff wins over the Blazers, the Lakers’ starting lineup of James, Davis, McGee, Green, and Caldwell-Pope had a 5-player offensive rating of 147.1, defensive rating of 97.1, and net rating of 50.0. They outscored the Blazers by 50 points when on the court while shooting 60.4% from the field and 55.0% from deep while holding Portland to 44.6% from the field and 25.0% from deep, best for any Lakers’ lineups.

The individual stats for the Lakers’ starters during the four-game win steak also confirmed Vogel’s trust and confidence as all five, along with Kuzma and Caruso, posted positive net ratings and positive plus/minus ratings. Vogel’s likely to continue to rely on and give major minutes to this 7-player rotation featuring starters James, Davis, McGee, Green, and Caldwell-Pope and reserves Kuzma and Caruso as the Lakers advance in the playoffs.

While they haven’t played as well as those in the core rotation, three other players who will get minutes depending on the opponent and matchups are Dwight Howard, Markieff Morris, and Rajon Rondo, now back from injury. The biggest lineup challenges Vogel will face is what to do with McGee and Howard if the Lakers have to play teams like the Rockets, Nuggets, Bucks, Raptors, or Heat, who all have centers who are capable 3-point shooters.

While the Lakers have thrived all season playing big when opposing teams go small, the playoffs present a different challenge and game-to-game adjustments become more important the deeper teams go into the playoffs. It will be interesting to see what Vogel does with McGee and Howard should the Lakers face the Rockets in the second round. Javale has played well while Dwight has struggled but neither is good as a perimeter defender.

The Lakers best lineups are when they go small ball with Davis or Morris at the five and McGee and Howard on the bench, which they did just 26% of the time in the regular season and only 33% of the time in the playoffs. Going forward, the Lakers are likely to play small close to half of the time, like they did back in March when they swept the Bucks and Clippers in back-to-back game with Davis or Morris playing center 48% of the time.

Overall, Vogel’s done an exemplary job managing the Lakers’ rotations when you consider the varying playing time he’s given McGee and Howard and the challenge of integrating late additions Morris, Waiters, and Smith. While he’s been hesitant to change his starting lineups, he’s embraced playing small with Davis or Morris at the five when matchups demanded it and done a good job doling out minutes to allow everybody to contribute.

Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel should be congratulated for staying with the players who got him to the dance and not listening to the critics who demanded changes. Hopefully, he’ll continue to make the right calls.

The Los Angeles Lakers shut down the Portland Blazers’ Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum but they’ll face an infinitely more daunting challenge slowing down Houston Rockets’ superstars James Harden and Russell Westbrook.

Not only did the Rockets beat the Lakers two of the three times they met during the regular season but their small ball approach could be a challenge for a Los Angeles team that starts a traditional back-to-the-basket center. The outcome of the series could depend whether Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel to is willing to adjust his starters and rotations to the Rockets’ style of play or whether he wants to stay the course and stick with his usual lineups.

While Vogel has been reluctant all year to change his starting lineups, he’s acknowledged Houston’s small ball style could necessitate some changes. Here are four adjustments the Lakers need to make to beat the Rockets:

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1. Start Anthony Davis at Center.

The Lakers need to go small to match up with the Rockets, who are going to start five players under 6′ 7″ and run a five-out offense with all five players behind the 3-point line to spread the defense and eliminate rim protection. That makes McGee and Howard, who averaged 33.6 minutes in the three games against the Rockets, liabilities. The Lakers need to counter Houston’s small ball lineup by starting Davis at the five and Kuzma at the four.

The Lakers need to resist the temptation to try to defeat the Rockets with their usual starting lineup and rotations. Houston can’t be forced play a different style because they’ve set their roster to only be able to play small. McGee or Howard defending 3-point shooters on the perimeter can’t work defensively and makes it hard for the Lakers’ to match threes offensively. The only solution is to play Anthony Davis and Markieff Morris at the five.

Thinking you can counter the Rockets’ 3-point shooting by pounding the ball inside on offense plays right into their hands. 3 points are greater than 2. The Lakers need to adjust their lineups and go small to beat the Rockets.

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2. Double Team James Harden.

The Lakers would be wise to deploy the double team tactics that worked against Damian Lillard against James Harden to limit his shots and force him to give up the ball. Containing Harden is a key to beating the Rockets. The Lakers double teamed Harden in the team’s three previous meetings and held him to just 29.0 points per game vs. 34.3 for season and 32.0% from deep vs. 35.5% for season while forcing 6.3 turnovers per game.

The big question is how the Lakers defend the other four Rockets’ players. Rather than having everybody scramble to rotate after doubling Harden, the Lakers should consider playing a 2-1-2 zone to keep AD in the middle. Once you double Harden, you’re already playing 4 against 3 so it makes sense to try and eliminate high percentage layups and corner threes and force more lower percentage mid-range twos and above-the-break threes.

Turning the Harden double team into a zone is the kind of out-of-the-box move a coach like Nick Nurse would embrace. It would make life easier for the players not doubling and could be sprinkled in to surprise the Rockets.

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3. Make and Take More Threes.

The Rockets’ goal is to transform the game into a 3-point shooting contest and create a mathematical mismatch by hoisting 50 to 60 threes, making 20 to 25 of them, and outscoring their opponents from deep by 20 to 30 points. So far in the playoffs, the Rockets have made 19.2 of 52.8 threes taken per game while the Thunder have only made 11.2 of 37.2 threes taken per game. That’s a differential of 8 more threes and 24 more points per game.

Meanwhile, the Lakers so far have made only 12.0 of the 35.0 threes taken per game in the playoffs, which means there’s no way they’re going to win the series against the Rockets unless they they take a lot more 3-point shots. The Rockets won two of the three regular season games the teams played by averaging 10 more threes for 30 more points per game. The Lakers must cut that differential at least in half to defeat the Rockets and win this series.

That means, if the Rockets are going to take 50 to 60 threes per game, then the Lakers need to take at least 40 to 50 threes per game to keep pace and keep the 3-point differential to no more than 5 made threes and 15 points.

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4. Unleash LeBron and AD from Deep.

For the Lakers to beat the Rockets, LeBron and AD need take and make their 3-point shots, which they didn’t do versus the Rockets in the regular season where James was just 3 for 15 on threes and Davis didn’t attempt a three. Without LeBron and AD taking and making their share of threes, there is no way the Lakers can keep pace with the Rockets who are going to launch 50 to 60 threes and drain 20 to 25 of them for a 20 to 30 point differential.

The good news is James and Davis have dramatically improved their 3-point shooting in the playoffs. LeBron is second on the team with 13 makes on 28 takes for 46.4% while Davis is fourth with 7 makes on 18 takes for 38.9%. The Lakers are going to need LeBron and AD to be even more aggressive and efficient from deep if they want to beat the Rockets. They can’t afford to be outscored by 20 points from deep if they want to win the series.

The Lakers need to run plays to get LeBron and AD more wide open threes. They should take advantage of pick-and-pops for Davis at the top of the key and have LeBron take the open threes when defenders go under screens.

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In many ways, this series will be a repeat of the Lakers’ first round matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers. The media will portray the Rockets as a deadly landmine waiting to blow up the Lakers and predict a 7-game series. But the Rockets have no answer for LeBron James and Anthony Davis whereas the Lakers’ defense has the tools to slow down James Harden and Russell Westbrook. The Lakers just need to make and take enough threes.

The Rockets will be a tougher challenge because of their style of play but the Lakers will win the series in 5 games. Houston doesn’t have the offense to beat the Lakers’ defense or the defense to stop the Lakers’ offense.

While the Lakers have what may be the best defense in the NBA playoffs, their offense is prone to struggling, especially when their shooters are not hitting from deep and teams are packing the paint to limit their superstars.

The Lakers’ offense needs a third superstar who’s a guard, a center who can stretch the floor, and a coaching staff who can create an offensive scheme to better empower superstar forwards LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Making savvy moves to accomplish these three goals during the coming offseason should be the Lakers’ top priority. Here are three exciting moves they should make to upgrade their offense to match their elite defense:

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1. Re-sign DeMarcus Cousins

Despite evidence the Lakers’ best lineup is with Anthony Davis at the five, the Lakers don’t appear interested in making that their starting or primary lineup at this time since Davis continues to prefer to play power forward.

The dilemma the Lakers face is the two centers they currently rely upon are both traditional back-to-the-basket defensive centers JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard, who tend to clog up the paint and hurt offensive spacing. Because Vogel’s a strong believer great defense starts inside-out with rim protection, any Lakers’ stretch five center will need to be able defensively to hold his ground in the post as well as be a legit threat as a 3-point shooter.

Re-signing DeMarcus Cousins is the logical answer to finding a center who can space the floor as well as defend in the low post. Cousins experience playing alongside Anthony Davis in New Orleans make the ideal choice. Before his Achilles injury two years ago, Boogie was on pace to become the first center in NBA history to take over 500 and make close to 200 threes, which was why the Lakers originally signed him at the start of last season.

NBA observers expect Dwight Howard to leave the Lakers in free agency this offseason and DeMarcus Cousins to be re-signed as his replacement. Re-signing Boogie would be the first step to upgrading the Lakers’ offense.

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2. Trade for Victor Oladipo

The Pacers’ poor performance in the NBA playoffs has resulted in the firing of head coach Nate McMillan and rumors the team should trade 28-year old All-Star guard Victor Oladipo before he becomes a free agent next season.

The arguments to trade Oladipo include concerns about the small market Pacers’ financial ability to retain him in free agency and worries regarding his health and fit with a team that played better without him than with him. Right now, the Pacers are not able to offer Victor an extension for more than 20% more than the $21 million he is going to be paid next season, which means they would have to wait until next season if they want to keep him.

Waiting to try and sign Oladipo to a max contract two offseasons from now raises the risk of losing him for nothing, which the Pacers cannot afford to do. That’s why everybody expects them to look to trade him this offseason. Oladipo will also have the same leverage Anthony Davis used to force his way to the Lakers by threatening not to re-sign if the Pacers don’t trade him to a team he prefers, which could open the door for the Lakers to get him.

LeBron should follow Kawhi’s example with PG and meet with Victor and convince him to demand a trade to the Lakers for Kuzma, Green, and a pick. It would be an opportunity for Victor to win a ring with LeBron and AD.

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3. Hire Alvin Gentry

There’s no question Frank Vogel’s a great defensive coach and has done a fantastic job coaching LeBron James and Anthony Davis and positioned the Lakers to have a great chance at winning their 17th NBA championship.

But the Lakers’ offense has not been as dominating as their defense despite having two top-five superstars. The offense relies too heavily on isolation plays for their superstars and lacks the elite spacing of a modern offense. The front office and the difficulty of building a championship roster with limited cap space and trade assets are partially responsible but the coaching staff also deserves blame for the team’s static and dated offensive schemes.

The New Orleans Pelicans’ firing of head coach Alvin Gentry could give the Lakers the perfect opportunity to upgrade their coaching staff with one of the brightest and most respected offensive minds in today’s NBA game. Before his stint as Pelicans’ head coach, Gentry was the lead assistant under Steve Kerr at Golden State and the architect responsible for transforming the Warriors’ offense into a legendary championship juggernaut.

Vogel likes having former head coaches on his staff and we’re likely to have a vacancy. Frank needs an offensive coordinator to innovate that side of the game and Alvin Gentry would be the perfect candidate for the position.

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There will surely be changes to the Lakers’ roster next season whether or not they win the championship. Anthony Davis, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Avery Bradley, JaVale McGee, and Rajon Rondo all have player options. Dwight Howard, Markieff Morris, Dion Waiters, Jared Dudley, and two-way players Devontae Cacok and Kostas Antetokounmpo will all be free agents. There’s rumors the Lakers could lose Bradley and Howard to free agency.

While the Lakers won’t have cap space, they will have a $9 million MLE, which they could use to sign a veteran point guard like Goran Dragic, who would be the perfect replacement if Avery Bradley opted out of his contract. An upgraded Lakers’ starting lineup next season of Goran Dragic, Victor Oladipo, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and DeMarcus Cousins backed by Rondo, Caruso, KCP, Morris, and McGee would be championship caliber.

With the pandemic forcing teams to cut expenses, a rich local television contract, and an ownership committed to winning, the Lakers should have opportunities next season to upgrade their offense to match their defense.