Lakerholics

The Los Angeles Lakers find themselves in the unenviable position of facing a ‘must win’ first round playoff game this Thursday because Frank Vogel has stubbornly ignored the team’s glaring need to make major lineup changes.

Before you shake your head and declare it’s just one game, remember this is no longer the regular season or even the regular playoffs. The bubble has changed everything and like the NBA signs say, it’s a ‘Whole New Game.’ There is no home court. There are no fans to cheer the home team to rally. There is not even a season to continue after a five month hiatus. There’s just the bubble and games played in its strangely sterile virtual atmosphere.

After last night’s devastating loss to the upstart Portland Trail Blazers, Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel faces a potential career defining decision what to do to fix his team’s daunting offensive woes before it’s too late. Standing pat and waiting for law of averages to catch up and the Lakers’ shots to start falling is no longer a viable option. Waiting for that would be like hoping for the Covid-19 pandemic to miraculously disappear.

The sad reality is the Lakers aren’t going to suddenly start playing like the team they were five months ago when they downed the Clippers and Bucks in front of thousands of enthusiastic cheering Lakers’ fans in Staples Center. The wheels that were starting to come off then and are wobbling badly now are not going to magically repair themselves. They need to be replaced with new wheels and a game plan based on today rather than a fools’ gold past.

JaVale McGee’s not going to start playing like before the All-Star break. Danny Green’s not going to find the fountain of youth and be able to defend any more. KCP’s not going to start hitting his shots like five months ago. Frank Vogel needs to understand he now has a different team and is facing a totally different situation and the only way for the Lakers to have a chance to win the championship in this bubble is for him to make major changes.

The changes the Lakers need have been painfully obvious since the restart. Vogel needs to bench McGee and start Davis at five and Kuzma at the four and replace Green and KCP with Caruso and Waiters as the starting guards. The Lakers need to surround LeBron and AD with shooters who can spread the floor, stretch the defense, and open up lanes to attack the rim. Playing two bigs plays simply allows opposing teams to slow down LeBron and AD.

The Lakers no longer have the luxury to be loyal and give players time to get their games together. They cannot risk going down two games to none to a team with a superstar guard who can rain deep threes like Damian Lillard. Starting James, Davis, Kuzma, Caruso, and Waiters will give the team improved speed and quickness on defense and their two superstars the spacing they need for better scoring and playmaking opportunities.

Going small was the blueprint the #6 seed New Orleans Pelicans used to sweep the favored #3 seed Portland Trail Blazers in the first round of the 2018 playoffs and it’s the formula Frank Vogel needs to adapt right now. One of the architects of the Pelicans’ stunning upset of the Blazers two years ago was none other than Rajon Rondo, whom Vogel should look to run the second unit when LeBron James rests and Anthony Davis takes over.

The Lakers need to narrow their rotation starting Thursday night. Besides starters James, Davis, Kuzma, Caruso, and Waiters, Vogel should go with an eight player rotation with Rondo, Morris, and Howard being the reserves. Should we need more shooting, Cook should be given a chance. Should somebody get into foul trouble, Green, Caldwell-Pope, or McGee could fill in but only on a short leash since they have not played well in the bubble.

We’ll find out Thursday night if Vogel has the smarts or courage to make these changes but he should know LA is not Indiana or Orlando and his job as head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers won’t survive a first round exit.

It’s no secret the Portland Trail Blazers long-shot hopes to upset the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the NBA playoffs that start tomorrow night in Orlando depend mainly on Damian Lillard going off offensively.

It thus follows that the best way for the favored Lakers to make sure the underdog Blazers cannot pull off an unlikely upset is to figure out how to slow Lillard down to keep him from going off and dominating the game. While there are obvious moves teams have deployed in the past to control Dame, such as double teaming him and forcing him to give up the ball, here are three surprise moves the Lakers could make to slow him down:

1. Wear Him Out on Defense.

While Lillard is an elite offensive talent, he’s nowhere as impactful on the defensive end. In fact, his 114.3 defensive rating for the 2019-20 season ranks 14th on the Blazers for players who played over 10 minutes per game. Focusing on his offense even more in the bubble, Dame’s defensive rating soared to 121.7. The result of his poor defensive performances left him with net ratings of just 1.4 for the regular season and 2.2 for the bubble.

The Lakers should deploy the strategy they used to defuse the Clippers’ Lou Williams and relentlessly hunt switches to force Damian Lillard to defend LeBron James on every possession to tire and wear him out defensively.

2. Have His Defender Leak Out.

This is another tactic designed to hurt Lillard’s offense by forcing him to focus on defense by having the Lakers’ defender who is guarding him leak out as soon as Dame shoots to try to cherry pick an easy fast break basket. This not only can break Lillard’s concentration on offense but also make him less eager to beat his man and penetrate because he knows his initial defender is going to be leaking out looking a long pass in transition.

This strategy creates pressure on Lillard not only to make his shot but also to get back quickly whether the shot ends up falling or not and plays right into the Lakers’ game plan of beating teams down the court for easy buckets.

3. Defend Him with Size and Length.

While Damian Lillard is a prodigious offensive talent, he is still only 6′ 2″ tall, which makes him a small guard by NBA standards, which means he can be bothered and forced to adjust his shot by taller and longer defenders. Fortunately, the Lakers have three players who have elite defensive ability, are over 6′ 8″ in height, and have over 7′ 0″ in length in Kyle Kuzma, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis to make it difficult for Dame to get his shot off.

The Lakers will probably use Kuzma early as part of a wave of different defenders who will try and slow Lillard down but, if the game is still close heading down the stretch, look for James or Davis to defend Dame.

Dame averaged 36.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 9.0 assists in 40.0 minutes while shooting 50.8% from the field and 39.4% from deep with one win and two losses in three games against the Los Angeles Lakers this season. The Lakers’ goal should be to hold Lillard under 30 points per game and McCollum under 20 points per game. If they do that, there’s a good chance the Lakers will sweep the Blazers in the first round or win in five games.

The Blazers will try to turn this series into a shootout as that is their only chance to pull off an upset. The Lakers know this and understand defense is their advantage and will focus on making sure they contain Lillard.

While the coronavirus hiatus cost the Lakers home court advantage and their momentum, it unleashed the enigma known as Kyle Kuzma, which in the end may have unlocked their missing key to winning a championship.

That may seem like a bold and audacious statement since bringing home the ‘Bubble Championship’ will likely prove to be infinitely more difficult than winning other NBA titles considering the unprecedented challenges. But the emergence of Kyle Kuzma may have given the Lakers that elusive third star they had been lacking before the bubble who could transform them into a team with the fire and star power to win the championship.

The resurgence of Kuz at both the offensive and defensive ends may have catapulted the Lakers’ Kuzma and Davis small ball lineup from a promising occasional option to an essential game-changing championship weapon. Kuzma not only fixed his broken shot during the four months off to become the Lakers’ top 3-point shooter at 44.4% in the bubble but has also been playing elite defense against top scorers like the Rockets’ James Harden.

While Vogel’s likely to continue to resist starting Kuzma at the four and Davis at the five, the challenges the Lakers face in the bubble playoffs will force him to play the Kuzma and Davis lineup more as the playoffs progress. Replacing McGee or Howard with Kuzma transforms the Lakers into a faster, quicker, better shooting team that stretches opposing defenses and opens lanes for James and Davis to attack the paint and dominate games.

That Kuzma at the four and Davis at the five has been the Lakers’ best lineup is not a secret. The team’s best 5-player lineups both for the entire regular season and for their time in the bubble featured Kuzma and Davis. 5-player lineups with Kuzma at the 4 and Davis at the 5 posted team-best net ratings of 23.3 for the full season (112.5 offensive less 89.2 defensive) and 53.8 for the bubble games (130.8 offensive less 76.9 defensive).

As the Lakers get ready to play Portland in the first round of the playoffs, Frank Vogel should take a close look at how Anthony Davis and the Pelicans swept the Trail Blazers in 4 games in the first round of the 2018 playoffs. After losing Cousins to injury in January, the Pelicans decided to go small, moving Anthony Davis to center and trading for stretch four Nikola Mirotić. The underdog Pelicans’ small ball attack totally dominated the Blazers.

The Pelicans exposed the Blazers major defensive weakness by going small. Mirotić and Davis totally dominated the lumbering Collins and Nurkic and there’s no reason not to expect the Lakers’ Kuzma and Davis to do the same. The stats tell the story. Davis averaged 33.0 points and 11.8 rebounds and Mirotić 18.3 points and 9.0 rebounds compared to just 11.8 points and 8.0 rebounds for Nurkic and just 7.0 points and 3.0 rebounds for Collins.

With JaVale McGee playing poorly and the small ball Rockets likely next on the playoff schedule, Frank Vogel knows the key to the Lakers winning the NBA championship is going to be the Kuzma and Davis small ball lineups. That means fewer minutes for McGee and Howard and more minutes and eventually a starting role for Kyle Kuzma as the Lakers plan ahead for their eventual matchups with the Los Angeles Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks.

Bottom line, while fate may have robbed the Lakers of their momentum and hard earned home court advantage, the basketball gods may have made it up to them by helping Kyle Kuzma make the leap to become their third star.

Contrary to the media hype, the Portland Trail Blazers are the perfect team for the Los Angeles Lakers to meet in the first round of the NBA playoffs and will be lucky to avoid a sweep and win even one game in the series.

Here are the four reasons why the first round playoff series between the Lakers and the Blazers will not live up to the hype and why Los Angeles should easily burst Portland’s bubble and end their Cinderella season:

1. Midnight Has Come for Cinderella.

The Blazers have been living on borrowed time. They were long shots at the start of the bubble to make it to the #9 seed, lost a game they should won when Dame missed two free throws, and survived two last second thrillers. They rode their great guard duo of Lillard and McCollum to the #8 seed and then edging the undermanned Grizzlies to earn the right to face the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round, a dubious honor that’s likely to end badly.

The reality is the Blazers are still just another #8 seed who’s going to be quickly dispatched by the #1 seed as has happened sixty-six out of seventy-two times since the NBA started matching #8 and #1 seeds in the playoffs.

2. Blazers Are a Poor Defensive Team.

The Blazers may be able to outscore lottery teams like the Grizzlies but they aren’t a good enough defensive team to upset an elite top seed like the Los Angeles Lakers who boast a pair of top five superstars in LeBron and AD. The Blazers’ #3 offense will be lucky to steal a game from the Lakers #3 defense and Portland’s #27 defense will get shredded by LA’s offense, which was top-5 before slipping to #11 after meaningless bubble games.

Dame may be the bubble MVP and the Blazers the media darlings but defense wins championships and the Lakers’ elite D will handcuff the Blazers offense while their offense crushes Portland’s porous defense.

3. Matchups Strongly Favor Lakers.

While Lillard and McCollum clearly have an edge over the Lakers’ guards, neither of them are capable of consistently dominating NBA games the way Lakers’ top-five superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis are able to do. Los Angeles not only has the two best players in the series in James and Davis but also a deeper and more talented veteran roster than Portland, especially on defense with elite shot blockers like McGee and Howard.

The NBA is a matchup league and as good as Dame and CJ are, they’re not in the same class as LeBron and AD. who have long histories of feasting on Portland’s defense, as do Kyle Kuzma, Dwight Howard, and Rajon Rondo.

4. Lakers Are Primed for Challenge.

All the media attention and hype about the Blazers excelling and the Lakers struggling in the bubble ignore the simple fact that the Blazers were playing to stay alive while the Lakers had already clinched the top seed in the west. The pundits predicting the underdog Blazers upsetting the favored Lakers are playing right into LeBron James hands. They forget James is the master at transforming allegedly disrespectful press into challenge and motivation.

Now that the playoffs have started and the games finally count, expect LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers to hit the hardwood looking to dominate, humiliate, and rout the Trail Blazers in the first round.

It seems like the Los Angeles Lakers have been waiting for these playoffs to start forever. Finally, after a 7 year drought and a five month hiatus due to coronavirus, the Lakers will play their first playoff game Tuesday night. That game against the Portland Trail Blazers will mark the official start of the Lakers’ quest to win the franchise’s 17th NBA championship, a quest that will ultimately be dedicated to the memories of Kobe and Gigi Bryant.

Winning this NBA championship will be the most challenging in the history of the game and will demand legendary legacy performances from LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the entire roster of the Los Angeles Lakers.

Nothing can change the dynamic and direction of an NBA playoff series like a savvy head coach surprising the opposing team by making an unexpected defensive move that disrupts their team and superstar player’s offense.

Here are four surprise defensive moves head coach Frank Vogel could be unleash on unprepared Lakers’ playoff opponents, like the Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, and Milwaukee Bucks:

1. Double Team Opposing Superstar.

While doubling superstars won’t qualify as a surprise since the Lakers have already used the tactic against the Blazers’ Damian Lillard and the Rockets’ James Harden, it will still be a bread-and-butter playoff defensive move. Designed to force opposing superstars to give up the ball and to disrupt their rhythm, teams will usually mix up double teaming with straight man-to-man defense to prevent offenses from anticipating what’s coming.

One wrinkle the Lakers might consider instead of playing man-to-man behind the double team is deploying a 3-man matchup zone where a center protects the rim while a pair of wings prevent high percentage corner threes

2. Play Occasional Matchup Zone.

Occasionally switching from man-to-man to a matchup zone defense to break the rhythm of the opposing team’s offenses has always been a savvy playoff strategy as most teams need a few possessions to adjust to a zone. Mixing matchup zones, man-to-man defenses, and trapping double teams could be the perfect defensive formula to confuse offenses,especially against playoff teams heavily reliant upon scoring from a superstar.

Rather than play more traditional 1–2–2 or 3–2 zones, the Lakers should consider playing a 2–3 defense designed to force teams to shoot mid-range twos and above-the-break threes rather than easy-to-make corner threes.

3. Box-and-One Opposing Superstar.

The Lakers could also take a page out of Raptor Nick Nurse’s playbook and run a box-and-one defense against the opposing team’s superstar like Toronto did against the Warriors’ Steph Curry in last season’s NBA Finals. Traditionally, a box-and-one usually is comprised of one defender covering the opposing team’s superstar 1-on-1 backed by a four player zone defense with a second player doubling the superstar when he gets into his zone.

The big advantage of the box-and-one is that teams never practice against it because nobody ever plays it. While it’s a gimmick defense, it’s another look the Laker could throw to confuse opposing defenses and superstars,

4. Kuzma Defend Opposing Superstar.

The NBA is a matchup league and the Lakers will need a primary defender for each of the superstars whom they will face in their championship quest. What they lacked during the regular season was a big elite wing defender. The dramatic defensive improvement of Kyle Kuzma in the bubble has raised hope they now have a quality defender who can hold his own with bigger wing scorers like Kawhi Leonard, Dame Lillard, and James Harden.

While Kuma has a long way to go to be an elite defender, he has the size, length, speed, quickness, and athleticism to bother top-tier wing scorers like Lillard and Harden and gives the Lakers another big defensive weapon.

Playoff series are a totally different challenge than one-off regular season games because teams have time to focus on their opponent’s weaknesses during multiple games and to surprise them with unexpected moves. Look for the Lakers to strategically deploy combinations of man-to-man, double teams, zone sets, and box-and-one defenses to confuse and disrupt opposing offenses and try to slow down and control opposing superstars.

Having a collection of defensive adjustments like these four moves could give Frank Vogel and the Lakers an edge that could help them navigate an extremely tough and arduous road to their 17th NBA championship.