Lakerholics

Heading into the Western Conference Finals, Frank Vogel has to decide whether to start Markieff Morris, whose small ball style transformed the Lakers in the last two wins, or revert to previous starter JaVale McGee.

There are cases to be made for both starting lineups. The JaVale McGee starting lineup has played 89 minutes in the playoffs with a 127.1 offensive rating, a 105.5 defensive rating, and a 21.5 net rating and +39 plus/minus. Meanwhile, the Markieff Morris starting lineup has only played 30 minutes in the playoffs but has posted a 128.6 offensive rating, an unbelievable 73.3 defensive rating, and an impressive 54.9 net rating and +30 plus/minus.

For Frank Vogel, everything starts with defense. The Lakers’ core defensive strategy against the Blazers and Rockets was to identify what was the heart of the opponent’s offensive engine and then game plan to take that away. For the Blazers’ series, that meant doubling Damian Lillard and forcing other players to beat them. For the Rockets’ series, that meant doubling James Harden and betting they could handle the rest of Houston’s lineup.

While starting Morris excelled against the small ball Rockets, most analysts expect the Lakers to revert to starting McGee in the Western Conference Finals against either the Clippers or Nuggets since both start big 7′ centers. But since the two teams and centers play different styles of basketball, the Lakers will not only have to wait until Tuesday night to learn whom they’ll play but their starting lineup could be different depending on opponent.

That won’t stop Frank Vogel, or for that matter us, from reviewing both the Clippers’ and Nuggets’ lineups and game planning and strategizing how the Morris and McGee starting lineups might work against each opponent. Knowing Vogel’s calling card is defense, let’s start our by identifying what is the beating heart of the Clippers’ and Nuggets’ offensive engines and which of the Lakers’ starting lineups would be most effective in shutting it down.

1. Lakers’ Starting Lineup for Conference Finals Against the Clippers.

The heart of the Clippers’ offensive engine in my opinion is forward Kawhi Leonard’s unique ability to get to where he wants on the court, usually deep in the paint, and finish with an unstoppable high percentage jump shot. Preventing that will likely be the core of the game plan Frank Vogel deploys against the Clippers and will probably include double teaming Kawhi to force him to give up the ball and rotating aggressively as the ball moves.

With the Clippers loaded with other dangerous scorers like Paul George and Lou Williams, the Lakers should start the Markieff Morris lineup like they did against the Rockets to speed up their defensive rotations after doubling. Zubac is not a major offensive threat other than as a dunker or offensive rebounder and playing their oversized version of small ball will unleash Anthony Davis and LeBron James as shot blockers who can protect the rim.

Starting Morris should also benefit the Lakers on the offensive end as they could deploy 5-out sets and Markieff’s 3-point shooting to stretch the floor and counter Clipper attempts to pack the paint against LeBron and AD. Playing small could also force the Clippers to bench traditional center Ivica Zubac, who is a major factor for them defensively, and replace him with the smaller Montrezl Harrell, who always struggles to guard James or Davis.

Bottom line, the defensive and offensive adjustments Frank Vogel made when starting Morris for McGee against the Rockets are exactly what the Lakers need to deploy to slow down Kawhi Leonard and beat the Clippers.

2. Lakers’ Starting Lineup for Conference Finals Against the Nuggets.

The heart of the Nuggets’ offensive engine is mercurial center Nikola Jokic who’s been the driving force behind Denver’s comeback versus the Clippers and can dominate with his elite passing and inside and outside games. As great as Jamal Murray has played during Denver’s comebacks against the Jazz and Clippers, stop Jokic and you stop the Nuggets, who rely on his deft passing, crafty moves in the paint, and tendency to get hot from deep.

While Anthony Davis can defend Nikola Jokic one-on-one, the Lakers’ best option is probably to double him and get the ball out of his hands, The Nuggets are easier to defend as a team when he does not have the ball. Doubling demands the Lakers play their version of small ball with Morris starting rather than McGee to accelerate the speed and quickness of their rotations to run shooters off the 3-point line and cruise the passing lanes.

As with the Clippers, starting the Morris lineup should help the Lakers on the offensive side. If Jokic has a weakness, it’s his ability to defend in space. There is no way he’ll be able to defend Anthony Davis or Markieff Morris. The Nuggets are vulnerable to teams who play small or have stretch five centers because neither Jokic or Plumlee are comfortable defending on the perimeter, which is why they lost 5 of their last 8 games vs. Houston.

Should the Nuggets pull off a second comeback from being down 1–3, the Lakers should look to take advantage of their physical and mental state by playing their version of small ball with the Markieff Morris starting lineup.

In the end, it’s really not a surprise that the Lakers best starting lineup is the one with Anthony Davis at the five and Markieff Morris at the four. It’s the lineup that ultimately turbo-charges the Lakers at both ends of the court. The unexpected and gratifying surprise is coach Frank Vogel understanding and making the perfect strategic defensive and offensive adjustments to transform the Morris lineup into a juggernaut at both ends of the court.

The Lakers have now won two series and are just eight games away from winning the NBA championship. Whether they play the Clippers or the Nuggets, they need to start Markieff Morris and their version of small ball.

With Markieff Morris replacing JaVale McGee, the Lakers may have found the perfect version of small ball to unleash superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and a new starting lineup to lead them to a championship.

While starting Morris was tactically done to better matchup with the small ball Houston Rockets, how the Lakers played on offense and defense with Markieff in the lineup could convince Vogel to make the move permanent. The speed and quickness Morris brought turbo-charged the Lakers’ defense and the his ability to spread the floor with 3-point shooting clearly opened up the paint and empowered LeBron and AD to attack the rim on offense.

Starting Morris instead of McGee makes the Lakers more versatile at both ends of the court with only a small sacrifice in terms of size since Markieff is still 6′ 8′ and 245 pounds and able to play and defend the center position. When you consider Anthony Davis is 6′ 10,” LeBron James 6′ 9,” Danny Green 6′ 6,” and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 6′ 5,” the Lakers’ lineup with Markieff Morris at the five is clearly not your prototype small ball lineup.

Frankly, ‘small ball’ is a total misnomer for the Lakers’ lineup with Morris instead of McGee because it’s not a ‘small’ lineup. It’s a ‘skilled’ lineup where all 5 players can handle, pass, and shoot the ball and play defense. It’s a versatile lineup that can easily match up with any style of play or opponent. It can play big or small, fast or slow, inside or outside, offense or defense, which makes it the ideal Lakers’ lineup to start or finish games.

While many believe Vogel inserted Morris into the starting lineup for his offense, the more likely reason Frank made the change was defense, which is why he may elect to continue starting him going forward in the playoffs. Defense has always been Vogel’s calling card and the heart of his decisions and the speed and quickness of the Lakers’ defensive rotations in the second half of Game 3 and first half of Game 4 were championship caliber.

That defensive velocity and intensity is something the Lakers can’t duplicate with JaVale McGee or Dwight Howard in the lineup. It could be the Lakers’ version of the ‘death lineup’ that fueled the Warriors’ three championships. That raises the possibility of Vogel opting to continue starting McGee and deploying the higher energy Morris lineup as at strategic points in games where the Lakers need stops like Kerr did with the Warriors death lineup.

Designed to accelerate the Lakers’ ability to rotate and run shooters off the 3-point line and cruise the passing lanes, the Lakers’ version of small ball was also elite at blocking shots with James and Davis protecting the rim. Whether Vogel decides to start Markieff Morris or emulate the Warriors and deploy the Lakers’ new version of small ball as a wild card coming off the bench to lock down games, he’s found a game-changing defensive weapon.

As important as the Morris lineup will be to the Lakers’ defense, don’t discount how his presence in the lineup impacts the Lakers’ offense and unleashes superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis to attack the rim. Vogel may start Markieff because of his ability to stretch the floor. He’s clearly a better 3-point shooter than Green, which is what makes the Lakers’ small ball version better offensively than the Warriors’ ‘death lineup.’

When you take into consideration the ability of the Lakers’ version of small ball to run 5-out sets to create more space and unclog the paint for LeBron and AD to attack the rim, it makes better sense for Vogel to start this lineup. The Lakers have struggled starting games and halves this season, often due to opponents packing the paint and forcing them to settle for jumpers instead of attacking the rim. Starting out going small could change that.

While defense certainly wins championships, you also need great offensive performances by your superstars, which is why unleashing the power of LeBron James and Anthony Davis is so important for the Lakers to triumph. The defensive strategy to beat the Lakers by the Clippers or whomever will clearly be to pack the paint to stop LeBron and AD from attacking. Playing 5-out with Markieff Morris and spreading the floor is the counter to that.

Great teams become great because of facing great challenges, which is why I’ve always been in favor of the Lakers having the Blazers, Rockets, and Clippers as their likely opponents on the road to their 17th championship. Facing two teams with loaded back courts and divergent styles like the Blazers and and Rockets has helped make the Lakers a better basketball team and may have given them the blueprint for winning a championship.

Everybody knows Daryl Morey, Mike D’Antoni, and the Houston Rockets went all-in on analytics-driven small ball with five players under 6′ 7″ with layups, free throws, and 3-point shots being their blueprint for scoring.

Tuesday night, the Los Angeles Lakers took the Morey and D’Antoni Rockets to school and put on an elite clinic on how to shut down the three scoring keys Houston’s small ball offense relies upon to destroy opposing defenses. After a first half shootout, the Lakers doubled and forced Harden to give up the ball, hounded and chased Houston’s shooters off the 3-point line, and protected the rim without fouling with a swarm of mobile shot blockers.

The result was a second half where the Lakers’ defense shut down the small ball Rockets’ offense, holding them to just 38 points on 13 for 37 from the field (35.1%), 6 of 16 from deep (37.5%), and 6 of 6 from the line (100%). This was against a Houston team that boasted the third best second half offense in the NBA during the regular season, averaging 56.8 points while taking 44.5 shots from the field, 23.3 three-pointers, and 13.2 free throws.

The usual defensive strategy in the NBA is to take away what a team does best and force them to do what they don’t do best. In the second half, Frank Vogel’s strategy was to take away everything the Rockets are built to do. They limited Houston to just 16 3-point attempts versus their average of 23. They allowed them to make just 1 of 11 on layups and blocked 5 of them. And they defended without fouling allowing the Rockets only 6 free throws.

It will be fun to see what changes D’Antoni will make to counter the moves Frank Vogel’s made to shut down Houston’s offense in what is a must win game. These are the chess games where great coaching comes into play. So far Mike D’Antoni won the first game and Frank Vogel has come back to win the last two games. Morey’s and D’Antoni’s future with the Rockets may be on the line tonight so look for new winkles tonight against the Lakers.

If the Lakers win, this series is all but over. If the Rockets win, then all bets are off and we’re likely to see a Game 7. I still have the Lakers in 5 but we’re going to need big games from Playoff LeBron and Playoff Rondo to do it.

There’s a reason why Los Angeles Lakers’ fans and pundits continue to call for Frank Vogel to change his starting lineup against the Houston Rockets. Without fans and home court, the Bubble Playoffs are all about matchups.

It might be a different story if the Lakers had a dominant offensive center like Shaquille O’Neal who could even the slate and make the Rockets pay for going small but that’s not JaVale McGee’s or Dwight Howard’s strength. Regardless of what Vogel contends, JaVale and Dwight are not the right matchups against a Rockets’ team that spreads the floor, plays five-out basketball, and transforms them into liabilities on offense and defense.

What’s frustrating for Lakers fans and pundits is Vogel’s continued refusal to bench JaVale McGee against the small ball Rockets despite the fact he has not played well either in the regular season seeding games or the playoffs. In the seeding games, he averaged 4.6 ppg and 5.1 rpg in 15.3 minutes with a -8.1 plus/minus and -23.8 net rating. Against Houston, he’s averaged 2.0 ppg and 2.5 rpg in 10.3 minutes with -1.5 plus/minus and -5.0 net rating.

Despite the critics, the poor performances, and the devastating stats, Vogel still claims McGee and Howard will be major factors against the Rockets. Here are four changes he could make to improve the Lakers’ starting lineup:

1. Kyle Kuzma replaces JaVale McGee.

Davis at the five and Karma at the four has been the Lakers’ favored closing lineup to finish games for most of the season so it makes sense to use this lineup to make sure the Lakers start each game and half with their best five. Replacing McGee with Kuzma would enable the Lakers to match up on defense with the Rockets’ five-out offense and conversely let them spread the floor and create spacing on offense for LeBron and AD to attack the rim.

2. Markieff Morris replaces JaVale McGee.

The beauty of starting Morris for McGee is the Lakers not only add a 3-point shooter and perimeter defender but Markieff can also play center, which allows Anthony Davis to remain at his preferred power forward position. Morris may not be the elite defensive rim protector McGee is but he brings an offensive versatility and defensive toughness to the center position that gives the Lakers a better matchup against the small ball crazy Rockets.

3. Rajon Rondo replaces JaVale McGee.

The most remarkable stat of Playoff Rondo’s last two games is that he did most of his damage alongside rather than without LeBron James. In fact, the Lakers’ top three 5-player lineups had Rajon and LeBron together. There’s a strong case based on those stats for Frank Vogel to consider starting Rondo next to James to optimize that relationship. Playoff Rondo starting could be the key to the Lakers winning the championship.

4. Alex Caruso replaces JaVale McGee.

The often overlooked and underappreciated combo guard Alex Caruso deserves to be in the discussion as his numbers confirm he is the Lakers’ best perimeter defender and has the team’s best defensive and net ratings. Starting Caruso would give the Lakers another fast and quick defender who does a great job staying in front of his man and has the ability to shoot fthe three, attack the rim, and make plays for teammates on offense.

Since Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel did not start JaVale McGee in the second half of Game 3, the big question is will he do the same for the start of Game 4, when he went small and started Markieff Morris instead? Frankly, that might be the most comfortable adjustment for Vogel to make since Morris plays excellent defense, allows the Lakers to dominate the boards, and can create spacing by stretching the floor for LeBron and AD.

Since Rajon Rondo is likely still on a some form of minutes restriction and Kyle Kuzma and Alex Caruso have well defined roles off the bench, my bet’s on Frank Vogel starting Markieff Morris in Game 4 like he did in Game 3.

I really like these lineups. Talk about a deep and talented offensive and defensive team. WOW!

This is right starting mix based on resume and salaries. Hard to argue with it. Surrounding two superstars LeBron and AD with 3 players who shot over 38% from deep is the first true modern starrting linep the Lakers have ever had.Two superstars and three great role player.

Five shooters, Three elite playmakers. Our best passing center ever? LeBron James. Anthony Davis. The 5-man combination of space creators, playmakers, and defenders is scary good.

I always hated it when the coach deliberately replaced a players who should start with one that shouldn’t just to get firepower to the bench.

Or to maintain a two big starting linep. And Gasol is a major upgrade at center in many ways, BBIQ, playmaking, shooting. The JaVa;le McGee starting center experiment that became unplayable.

You should start the four players who score double-diget points and get paid double-diget salaries. Almost stupid not to.

Especially when you look at the firepower and defense AC, Wes, Lyle, and Keef bring to help Trezz defend. And surrounding Trez with four shooters to creat space to attack.