Lakerholics

MVP superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo has a career defining decision to make after the Milwaukee Bucks’ disappointing five-game second-round loss to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Semifinals six days ago.

As much as the Bucks would love to control the situation, Giannis has the power to control his destiny like Anthony Davis did last offseason when he forced the New Orleans Pelicans to trade him to the Los Angeles Lakers. Does Giannis stay in Milwaukee and trust the Bucks to acquire another superstar to make the team a legitimate championship contender or exert the power of his looming free agency like AD and chose his future home?

Here’s a quick look at the four options Giannis Antetokounmpo has:

1. Giannis Signs Supermax Contract with the Bucks.

There are good reasons why Giannis might actually prefer this as his best option. To start with, we’re in the middle of a pandemic that’s devastated the economy and transformed the future of the NBA from rosy to uncertain. There’s a case to be made the smart move would be for Giannis to take advantage of the mega dollars on the table and lock in generational wealth and security for his family. After all, who knows what the future holds?

Then there’s Giannis’ team first personality and professed love for the city of Milwaukee. It’s easy to imagine him deciding to sign the supermax contract offered by the Bucks and trusting them to do what they need to improve.

2. Giannis Declines to Sign Supermax with the Bucks.

This is probably the easiest and most likely option for Giannis to choose, basically remaining committed to the Milwaukee Bucks but smartly kicking any signing of the supermax contract down the road until next offseason. This option keeps Antetokounmpo’s options open while putting intense pressure on the Bucks to make substantive changes to upgrade the roster for next season, which could be a challenge considering their situation.

While the most reasonable path for Giannis right now, this option would ratchet up the pressure on the Bucks to make major moves to upgrade the team and transform them into a legitimate championship contender.

3. The Bucks Trade Giannis to Team of Their Choice.

One thing the Bucks cannot afford to do is lose Giannis Antetokounmpo to free agency with nothing in return so if he declines to sign a supermax contract, Milwaukee might be wise to quietly investigate the trade market. The offers the Bucks could receive for Giannis now with a year left on his contract would certainly be better than any possible sign-and-trade deal he’d have to approve a year from now or the risk of losing him for nothing.

While the Bucks don’t want to part ways with Antetokounmpo, they may have no choice because their current roster and financial constraints may make it impossible for them to upgrade the team. May be time to cash in.

4. Giannis Demands Trade to Team(s) of His Choice

What the Bucks don’t want to happen is for Giannis to decide to follow the route Anthony Davis took and demand to be traded to a specific team or list of teams because that could diminish what Milwaukee receives in return. Just the threat of Antetokounmpo doing this could be enough to make the Bucks seek to trade him this offseason, especially if getting him to sign the supermax deal seems like long shot and options to upgrade the roster dim.

This is the option the Los Angeles Lakers are hoping will become the path for Giannis joining LeBron and AD to form a new superteam dynasty whose championship window would extend well beyond James’ retirement.

Milwaukee and Antetokounmpo have started the process by meeting to discuss the future and how to improve the team. The showdown will come when the Bucks formally present Giannis with the actual supermax offer. Should Giannis lose faith in Milwaukee’s ability to upgrade the team and decline to sign, the Bucks probably can’t afford to take the risk of waiting until the following offseason and would be smart to look to trade him now.

The problem with the Lakers planned pursuit of Giannis is the only way they could acquire him would be through free agency a year from now as they don’t have the trading chips to even make a viable sign-and-trade deal. Joining the Lakers could only happen if Giannis committed to signing with the Lakers as a free agent next year and declared he wouldn’t re-sign with any team to whom he was traded, which is an unlikely long shot at best.

Frankly, Giannis signing the supermax deal with the Bucks would be good news for the Lakers in my opinion. I prefer seeing him stay in Milwaukee than creating a superteam somewhere else to compete with the Lakers. Further, I also dislike the idea of the Lakers wasting the coming offseason saving cap space to sign Giannis in free agency a year from now. Smacks too much of the lost opportunities of waiting for Kawhi Leonard last offseason.

I also don’t see Giannis as the kind of player who would want to follow the Kevin Durant’s lead and join a team like the Miami Heat who just beat him. He strikes me as the kind of loyal player who wants to stay in Milwaukee.

Fresh off their Cinderella semifinals 1–3 comeback against the Clippers, it’s Jamal and the Joker and the Denver Nuggets versus the King and the Brow and the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals in the Bubble.

Can the underdog Nuggets continue their playoff heroics against a heavily favored powerhouse Lakers team with the second-ranked offensive rating, third-ranked defensive rating, and top-ranked net rating in the playoffs? What are the chances 23-year old Jamal Murray and 25-year old Nikola Jokic can lead the Nuggets to a third straight playoff series upset over 33-year old LeBron James and 27-year old Anthony Davis and the Lakers?

The answer is slim and none. The Lakers will end Denver’s fairy tale story and burst the Cinderella Nuggets’ bubble like the Blazers and Rockets in five games with the odds of the series going six about the same as a sweep. Great as the Nuggets have played, the rested Lakers have the superior stars in LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the defensive weapons to stop Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, and the team chemistry the Clippers lacked.

No disrespect but the Lakers are not the overachieving Thunder or choke prone Clippers. Defensively, the Lakers have the speed and quickness to chase 3-point shooters off the line and the shot blockers to protect the rim. Offensively, they have two superstars in LeBron James and Anthony Davis, whom the Nuggets have no answer to defend, and a deep and talented veteran roster that’s not going to crumble and fold like the Clippers.

While Los Angeles and Denver both elevated their games in the playoffs, the Lakers won three of the four regular season games the teams played, only losing to the Nuggets in the one game where LeBron James did not play. Because their one win over the Lakers was a 128–104 blowout, the Nuggets ended up with the +3.2 net rating and a +2.0 plus/minus against the Lakers for the regular season despite losing three out of four games played.

The teams’ performances in the bubble in the playoffs are more telling. The Lakers have an 8–2 record with a second-ranked 114.4 offensive rating, a third-ranked 105.4 defensive rating, and a top-ranked 9.0 net rating. Because of their two seven-game comeback series, the Nuggets have an unremarkable 8–6 record with a fifth-ranked 112.5 offensive rating, an eleventh-ranked 114.0 defensive rating, and a ninth-ranked -1.5 net rating.

Therein lies the Nuggets’ challenge. While their fifth-ranked offense might be able to score on the Lakers third-ranked defense, their eleventh-ranked defense will struggle mightily to stop the Lakers second-ranked offense? The odds the Lakers will somehow choke like the overachieving Thunder or overrated Clippers is not likely with LeBron James smelling the roses and GOAT and sensing an opportunity to win his fourth NBA championship.

With six days rest and three days to prepare, Frank Vogel and the Los Angeles Lakers should be locked and loaded for the Denver Nuggets and determined to avoid a Game 1 loss in the Western Conference Finals.

The Lakers will have multiple options to upgrade their roster this offseason but one out-of-box move would be to resurrect the trade that never was and make a deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder for point guard Chris Paul.

Rather than writing off the idea as crazy because CP3 is over the hill, his contract an albatross, and his style of play a poor fit with LeBron and AD, the Lakers should view the situation as an opportunity to steal a superstar. If Danny Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Avery Bradley, and JaVale McGee decline their player options, the Lakers would have the assets in the form of expiring contracts to pull off a trade with OKC for Chris Paul.

If the Lakers can’t pull off a trade for a young stud guard like Victor Oladipo, Bradley Beal, Fred VanVleet, or Zach LaVine or sign a free agent like Goran Dragic with their MLE, then trading for CP3 could be an attractive option. While he’s 35-years old and owed $85 million over the next 2 years, Chris has shown in these playoffs, like LeBron, that he still has the court savvy and playing style to continue to perform at an elite level into his late 30’s.

Here are three reasons why the Lakers would be smart to trade for CP3:

1. He’s Exactly What They Need.

Chris Paul is exactly what the Los Angeles Lakers need right now to make life easier and complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis. He fills their immediate need for a dependable third scorer and elite second playmaker. Like LeBron at 35, CP3’s performing at a HOF level averaging 17.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.7 assists in 31.5 minutes per game, comparable to his career 18.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 9.5 assists in 34.9 minutes per game.

Paul also plays a style that relies more on skill and craftiness than speed, quickness, and athleticism, which means there’s an excellent chance he will continue to play at a high level for the remaining two years on his contract. Watching how Playoff Rondo has impacted the Lakers in their series against the Rockets serves as a perfect example of what Chris Paul could bring to LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers if they traded for him.

Like Rondo, Chris Paul has the full trust and unreserved respect of LeBron James, is exactly what the Lakers need to balance their roster, and could be the key to optimizing the last two years of the King’s championship window.

2. He Could Actually Be Available.

With the coronavirus pandemic looming and Billy Donovan leaving, it’s time for the Oklahoma City Thunder to start rebuilding and take advantage of the treasure chest of draft picks Sam Presti has smartly accumulated. They have a pair of talented young guards in Gilgeous-Alexander and Dort and several high salaried veterans ready to leave via free agency. All they need is to find a way to jettison Chris Paul’s 2-year $85 million contract.

Which is where the Los Angeles Lakers come into the picture, buoyed by their megadollar local TV contract, insatiable thirst for championships, and willingness to take on the last two years of Chris Paul’s massive contract. While the Bucks and Knicks have been rumored to be interested in CP3, they aren’t logical trade partners. Trading for Paul wouldn’t make New York a playoff contender and Milwaukee lacks expendable expiring contracts.

That leaves the Lakers as the only team with the motivation and possible resources to realistically trade for Chris Paul. While CP3 may not be their top option, it’s possible he could end up being their best available option.

3. He’s Perfect Fit for LeBron James.

Besides being good friends, LeBron James and Chris Paul have dreamed of playing with each other and rued the opportunity they missed when David Stern voided the New Orleans Pelicans’ CP3 trade to the Lakers 8 years ago. Now grizzled 35-year old veterans, there’s a chance they could finally be teammates if the stars align and the Lakers have the assets and will to take on Chris’ $85 million contract and bring him aboard as their third superstar.

Any lingering questions of how Chris Paul would fit playing with LeBron James and Anthony Davis have been answered by Rajon Rondo’s recent sensational play and electrifying performance in the playoffs for the Lakers. He would give the Lakers the third superstar they’ve been searching for and an elite scorer and playmaker who can play who can run the offense and get the ball to Anthony Davis with or without LeBron James on the court.

Chris is basically a full-time full-year version of Playoff Rondo who’s a better shooter, playmaker, and defender who’d elevate the Lakers to superteam status and make them odds-on favorites to win two more championships.

Heading into the Western Conference Finals, Frank Vogel has to decide whether to start Markieff Morris, whose small ball style transformed the Lakers in the last two wins, or revert to previous starter JaVale McGee.

There are cases to be made for both starting lineups. The JaVale McGee starting lineup has played 89 minutes in the playoffs with a 127.1 offensive rating, a 105.5 defensive rating, and a 21.5 net rating and +39 plus/minus. Meanwhile, the Markieff Morris starting lineup has only played 30 minutes in the playoffs but has posted a 128.6 offensive rating, an unbelievable 73.3 defensive rating, and an impressive 54.9 net rating and +30 plus/minus.

For Frank Vogel, everything starts with defense. The Lakers’ core defensive strategy against the Blazers and Rockets was to identify what was the heart of the opponent’s offensive engine and then game plan to take that away. For the Blazers’ series, that meant doubling Damian Lillard and forcing other players to beat them. For the Rockets’ series, that meant doubling James Harden and betting they could handle the rest of Houston’s lineup.

While starting Morris excelled against the small ball Rockets, most analysts expect the Lakers to revert to starting McGee in the Western Conference Finals against either the Clippers or Nuggets since both start big 7′ centers. But since the two teams and centers play different styles of basketball, the Lakers will not only have to wait until Tuesday night to learn whom they’ll play but their starting lineup could be different depending on opponent.

That won’t stop Frank Vogel, or for that matter us, from reviewing both the Clippers’ and Nuggets’ lineups and game planning and strategizing how the Morris and McGee starting lineups might work against each opponent. Knowing Vogel’s calling card is defense, let’s start our by identifying what is the beating heart of the Clippers’ and Nuggets’ offensive engines and which of the Lakers’ starting lineups would be most effective in shutting it down.

1. Lakers’ Starting Lineup for Conference Finals Against the Clippers.

The heart of the Clippers’ offensive engine in my opinion is forward Kawhi Leonard’s unique ability to get to where he wants on the court, usually deep in the paint, and finish with an unstoppable high percentage jump shot. Preventing that will likely be the core of the game plan Frank Vogel deploys against the Clippers and will probably include double teaming Kawhi to force him to give up the ball and rotating aggressively as the ball moves.

With the Clippers loaded with other dangerous scorers like Paul George and Lou Williams, the Lakers should start the Markieff Morris lineup like they did against the Rockets to speed up their defensive rotations after doubling. Zubac is not a major offensive threat other than as a dunker or offensive rebounder and playing their oversized version of small ball will unleash Anthony Davis and LeBron James as shot blockers who can protect the rim.

Starting Morris should also benefit the Lakers on the offensive end as they could deploy 5-out sets and Markieff’s 3-point shooting to stretch the floor and counter Clipper attempts to pack the paint against LeBron and AD. Playing small could also force the Clippers to bench traditional center Ivica Zubac, who is a major factor for them defensively, and replace him with the smaller Montrezl Harrell, who always struggles to guard James or Davis.

Bottom line, the defensive and offensive adjustments Frank Vogel made when starting Morris for McGee against the Rockets are exactly what the Lakers need to deploy to slow down Kawhi Leonard and beat the Clippers.

2. Lakers’ Starting Lineup for Conference Finals Against the Nuggets.

The heart of the Nuggets’ offensive engine is mercurial center Nikola Jokic who’s been the driving force behind Denver’s comeback versus the Clippers and can dominate with his elite passing and inside and outside games. As great as Jamal Murray has played during Denver’s comebacks against the Jazz and Clippers, stop Jokic and you stop the Nuggets, who rely on his deft passing, crafty moves in the paint, and tendency to get hot from deep.

While Anthony Davis can defend Nikola Jokic one-on-one, the Lakers’ best option is probably to double him and get the ball out of his hands, The Nuggets are easier to defend as a team when he does not have the ball. Doubling demands the Lakers play their version of small ball with Morris starting rather than McGee to accelerate the speed and quickness of their rotations to run shooters off the 3-point line and cruise the passing lanes.

As with the Clippers, starting the Morris lineup should help the Lakers on the offensive side. If Jokic has a weakness, it’s his ability to defend in space. There is no way he’ll be able to defend Anthony Davis or Markieff Morris. The Nuggets are vulnerable to teams who play small or have stretch five centers because neither Jokic or Plumlee are comfortable defending on the perimeter, which is why they lost 5 of their last 8 games vs. Houston.

Should the Nuggets pull off a second comeback from being down 1–3, the Lakers should look to take advantage of their physical and mental state by playing their version of small ball with the Markieff Morris starting lineup.

In the end, it’s really not a surprise that the Lakers best starting lineup is the one with Anthony Davis at the five and Markieff Morris at the four. It’s the lineup that ultimately turbo-charges the Lakers at both ends of the court. The unexpected and gratifying surprise is coach Frank Vogel understanding and making the perfect strategic defensive and offensive adjustments to transform the Morris lineup into a juggernaut at both ends of the court.

The Lakers have now won two series and are just eight games away from winning the NBA championship. Whether they play the Clippers or the Nuggets, they need to start Markieff Morris and their version of small ball.