Lakerholics

The rumors head coach Frank Vogel may decide to return to starting JaVale McGee rather than staying with Dwight Howard as the Lakers’ starting center against the Heat in the upcoming 2020 NBA Finals are worrisome.

Howard has not only played far better than McGee in Conference Finals but also has consistently outplayed him in the second half of the regular season and in the seeding and first two rounds of playoff games played in the bubble. With Howard starting and helping the Lakers win the last two games to clinch the West Finals, it seems foolhardy for Frank Vogel to even consider making a change before the four most important games of the season.

Now is not the time for misplaced loyalty to displaced starting center JaVale Mcgee to derail what has worked well for the Lakers in the last two rounds to dispatch the scruffy small-ball Rockets and the gritty come-back Nuggets. The Heat, with All-Star center Bam Adebayo, resemble the Nuggets more than the Rockets or Blazers and the Lakers should deploy a defensive game plan built around starting Dwight Howard at center to shut down Adebayo.

Vogel needs to be careful not to overthink the situation. Don’t rock the boat and make changes after the team just played their best two games of the playoffs. Here are four reasons why the Lakers should start Dwight Howard:

1. Howard’s a Better Defensive Matchup Against Adebayo!

While he is not the 3-point threat Nikola Jokic was, Miami’s Bam Adebayo presents similar defensive problems as a scorer, rebounder, and passer, posting 32 points, 14 rebounds, and 5 assists in the Boston close out game. Stopping Adebayo is the Lakers top priority as Bam dominated the Eastern Conference Finals, averaging a team-best 21.8 points, team-best 11.0 rebounds, and team-best 5.2 assists in team-high 39.1 minutes per game.

Bam is the offensive engine that powers the Heat’s game and that’s why the Lakers would be smart to use the same strategy they used to stop Jokic and start Howard and have him on the floor whenever Adebayo’s in the game. Howard posted a team-best defensive rating of 100.0 in the Nuggets series in 20.2 minutes per game, dramatically better than the 110.5 defensive rating posted by JaVale McGee in the 7.6 minutes per game he played.

Just four wins from their 17th NBA championship, the Lakers should keep the same starting lineup that shut down Nikola Jokic in the conference finals and start Dwight Howard to defend Bam Adebayo in the NBA Finals,

2. The Lakers’ Offense Runs Better with Howard at Center!

Neither Dwight Howard or JaVale McGee are going to score many points or dish out many assists from the center position but the screens they set and offensive rebounds they grab can be critical to the Lakers’ offense working. Howard was a key component to the Lakers’ offensive success against the Nuggets, posting a team-best 123.5 offensive rating for the series compared to JaVale McGee’s 97.4 offensive rating for 7.6 minutes per game played.

Unlike the Nuggets’ Jokic, the Heat’s Bam Adebayo is a excellent defensive rebounder, good team defender, and elite rim protector as he showed with his great game-saving block against Jayson Tatum in the conference finals. The Lakers will need Dwight Howard’s physical screen setting, aggressive offensive rebounding, and dominating power dunking off lobs to keep Bam Adebayo busy defensively and prevent him from defending Anthony Davis.

Starting Dwight will make the Lakers’ offense run better as the Heat will have to focus on keeping him off the boards and preventing him from getting easy dunks off lobs when LeBron or Rondo penetrate the paint.

3. Starting Howard Will Force Miami To Adjust Lineups!

The Miami Heat would love the Lakers to go small with Anthony Davis at the five and Markieff Morris at the four, which would enable them to have Adebayo guard Davis, Crowder guard James, and Robinson defend Morris. What they don’t want is the Lakers to start Howard because that’s going to expose Robinson and force them to replace him with Olynyk or Iguodala in the starting lineup to matchup against the Lakers big-three front court.

But replacing Robinson with Iguodala or Olynyk doesn’t eliminate the matchup nightmare created by Howard. Starting Dwight puts the Heat in a bind. Who does Bam Adebayo cover? Anthony Davis or Dwight Howard? There’s no way Robinson, Crowder, and Adedayo can defend James, Davis, and Howard. The Heat could go small and try to play McGee off the floor but Howard’s elite physicality and athleticism would force them to adjust.

Starting Dwight will give the Lakers a James, Davis, and Howard front court whose athleticism and physicality will create an absolute nightmare matchup and force the Heat to change their lineups and rotations.

4. Howard Will Be More Likely To Re–Sign Next Season!

The Lakers need to think about their future. Dwight Howard’s emergence in the playoffs as a major difference maker changes the dynamic for next season, especially in light of JaVale McGee’s continued diminished performances. Dwight’s an unrestricted free agent this offseason and there’s already rumors of the Boston Celtics offering him their MLE and a chance to start. Vogel starting Dwight in the Finals could be the key to him re-signing.

While the Lakers may still have their eye on DeMarcus Cousins as their perfect starting center for next season, there’s also no question Howard has shown he can still be an elite defensive center as well as a great teammate. Dwight deserves the opportunity to start in the NBA Finals and hopefully Frank Vogel and his staff see that and understand how the decision whether to start him or JaVale McGee could determine his future as a Laker.

The Lakers would be smart to stick with the lineup that won them the Western Conference Finals and start Dwight Howard at center. It’s the kind of move that could convince Dwight Howard to finish his career as a Laker.

The NBA Finals starting Wednesday night between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat will be a matchup between a team that made it despite the bubble and a team that made it because of the bubble.

There’s no question these NBA Finals will go down as the strangest in league history considering the five-month suspension due to coronavirus and the three-month restart and playoffs held in the bubble without fans. The long layoff, loss of home court advantage, and lack of fans clearly hurt higher-seeded veteran teams like the Bucks, Clippers, and Raptors while helping lower-seeded younger teams like the Heat, Celtics, and Nuggets.

Surviving and Thriving in the Bubble!

The West’s top-seed Lakers were the only one of the league’s top four seeds to survive the bubble, which ended up eliminating the 2nd-seed Clippers from the West and the top and 2nd-seed Bucks and Raptors from the East. The Lakers won 5-game series against Damian Lillard and 8th-seed Blazers, James Harden and 4th-seed Rockets, and Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, and 3rd-seed Nuggets, despite playing in the bubble and losing home court.

Meanwhile, the East’s 5th-seed Heat benefitted from playing on a neutral site in the bubble where their young players were able to avoid fan pressure and facing three higher seeds who lost hard-earned home court advantages. Because of the bubble, the Heat swept Victor Oladipo and 4th-seed Pacers in four games, surprised Giannis Antetokounmpo and top-seed Bucks in five games, and took down Jason Tatum and 3rd-seed Celtics in six games.

No disrespect to the Pacers, Bucks, and Celtics but the Lakers are the one veteran team that has not only survived but also thrived in the bubble. They have tamed what critics said was the toughest road to the championship. They dominated in 5 games what was supposed to be the best 8th-seed ever in the Blazers, the most challenging matchup ever in the 4th-seed Rockets, and the best come-back playoff team ever in the 3rd-seed Nuggets.

The NBA Finals matchup the bubble created between the Lakers and Heat is such a mismatch that Miami winning would be the first time in the 68 year history of the Finals that a 5th-seed had ever been crowned as champion.

The Youth and Experience Factor!

While playing at a neutral site without the pressure of fans has helped the Miami Heat upset three higher seeded teams in the playoffs, age and experience are still likely to be major factors when it comes to the Finals. The Los Angeles Lakers with 35-year old LeBron James and 27-year old Anthony Davis have a clear advantage in age and experience over the Miami Heat with 30-year old Jimmy Butler and 22-year old Bam Adebayo.

Aside from LeBron James, who will be playing in his 10th NBA Finals, the Lakers have three other major players in their rotation who have Finals experience, including Danny Green, Dwight Howard, and Rajon Rondo. The only player on the younger Heat with Finals experience is Andre Iguodala, whom Miami dusted off in their Game 6 win over the Celtics and who’s had success guarding LeBron James in the Finals with the Warriors.

While the Finals won’t be played before fans, the pressure is going to ratchet up on Miami’s young 3-point shooters, who hit 39.1% of their threes against Indiana and 37.3% against Milwaukee but only 32.3% against Boston. Finals experience will be a major factor in who wins the championship. LeBron James is going to be laser focussed on taking full advantage of this opportunity to win his 4th NBA championship and boost his case for GOAT.

The Lakers’ edge in age and experience of their superstars and key role players over the Heat’s stars and players is going to be the challenge the Heat will have to somehow overcome to have a chance to win in the finals.

Dwight Howard’s the Wild Card!

The Heat are hoping 22-year old All-Star center Bam Adebayo can keep Lakers’ 27-year old superstar Anthony Davis in check while a mix of Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, and Andre Iguodala somehow contains LeBron James. While the chances of that happening are probably remote, the strategy completely ignores Dwight Howard, the wild card in the Lakers’ starting lineup who single-handedly shut down Nikola Jokic in the last series.

Dwight Howard’s likely to be the wild card in these NBA Finals also. The Heat will need to figure out how their current starting lineup is going to defend a dominating Lakers’ front court of James, Davis, and Howard. There’s no way a Heat front court of Robinson, Crowder, and Adebayo can handle the size and physicality of a James, Davis, and Howard front court. The Heat may be forced to change their starting lineup and rotations.

Replacing Robinson, their weak link defensively, with Olynyk or Iguodala is possible but could further hurt the Heat’s struggling offense, which has been dependent on surrounding Adebayo and Butler with 3-point shooters. Miami’s only solution may be to take a page out of the Houston’s playbook and try to beat the Lakers by going small. Only problem is Miami doesn’t have the defense or rebounding to make small ball work against LA.

The bottom line is Spoelstra will need to make adjustments to the Heat’s starting lineup to account for the mismatch the Lakers starting Dwight Howard creates or this Finals is likely to end quickly in four or five games.

No disrespect to Giannis Antetokounmpo or Kawhi Leonard but LeBron James took over Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals and showed the world why, at 35-years old, he’s still the MVP and best player on the planet.

While Antetokounmpo’s Bucks and Leonard’s Clippers succumbed to the perils of the bubble, LeBron’s Lakers rolled through three straight tough opponents with five-game series wins and are headed to the NBA Finals. While a flawed Giannis and Bucks team crumbled in five to the Heat and a overhyped Kawhi and Clippers team blew a 3–1 lead to the Nuggets, LeBron and the Lakers showed how true champions perform in the playoffs.

While Giannis and Kawhi stumbled in the clutch, LeBron closed the Lakers’ final two wins against the Nuggets with four straight stops defending Jamal Murray in Game 4 and four straight baskets to clinch the series in Game 5. LeBron dished out 19 dimes with only 2 turnovers in those two games. He finished Game 5 with 38 points, 16 rebounds, 10 assists, and his 27th playoff triple-double, trailing only Magic’s 30 postseason triple-doubles.

Smartly pacing himself through the playoffs, those last two games were the first in these playoffs where LeBron James played more than 40 minutes, testament to the Lakers’ depth and Frank Vogel’s fine rotation management. These Finals will be James’ 10th as a player, which is more than 27 of the 30 franchises in the league can claim. For the Lakers as a franchise, this will be their 32nd Finals appearance and, if they win, their 17th championship.

As LeBron James again reminded us as he sat relaxed on the floor with the confetti falling as the Lakers accepted the Western Conference Finals trophy, we’re now “one step closer to the goal but the job is still not done.” Standing between the Lakers and their league leading 17th championship are whomever wins the Eastern Conference Finals, in which the 5th seed Miami Heat hold a 3 games to 2 lead over the 3rd seed Boston Celtics.

The emergence of Playoff LeBron has been a transformative moment that could change the historic legacies for him, his superstar teammate Anthony Davis, and the franchise he inherited after the tragic death of Kobe Bryant. The 2020 NBA Playoffs will be momentous to LeBron James’ quest to be the GOAT, Anthony Davis’ odyssey to take the mantle from the King, and the LA Lakers’ challenge to surpass the Boston Celtics for most championships.

With all that on the line, LeBron, AD, and the Lakers only need four more wins to turn the greatest playoff challenge an NBA team has ever faced into the most satisfying and rewarding championship in the league history.

Like Frank said, this is “the out-of-the-bubble, pandemic season,” which in a way is saying it’s another anomaly like the bubble, a variation from the normal regular season.

While the teams won’t be in a strict bubble like in Orlando, it’s not basketball as usual. It’s “a whole new game” and, like in the bubble, the Lakers frankly are the team best prepared to deal with the situation thanks to Rob Pelinka’s great offseason where the team added unprecedented depth and talent.